1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for platinum/palladium is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are platinum - group metals with high melting points, strong catalytic activity, and corrosion resistance. Their spot benchmark pricing power is concentrated in the London Platinum and Palladium Market, and the futures pricing power is dominated by the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts [1]. - On the supply side, global platinum and palladium resources are highly concentrated, with significant oligopoly risks. China has a high degree of import dependence, and the import risk remains high for a long time [2]. - On the demand side, platinum demand fluctuates greatly, mainly from the automotive and investment sectors. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector. China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium. The hydrogen energy demand for platinum and palladium has a bright future, and the investment demand is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Basics - Platinum and palladium have similar physical and chemical properties, such as high melting points, good ductility, and strong catalytic activity. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, high - end jewelry, and the chemical industry, while palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts [1][15][16]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Upstream**: Global platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. China's platinum - group element reserves are less than 1% of the world's, and the supply is highly dependent on imports [20]. - **Mid - stream**: Processing includes primary metal extraction and recycling. The extraction and refining of primary platinum and palladium are complex. There are differences in the separation and purification processes of platinum and palladium, with platinum having a longer refining cycle and lower short - term supply elasticity [24][25]. - **Downstream**: Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum demand is more diversified, including automotive, jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors. There are differences in their applications in different fields [28][29][30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Circulation and Pricing Market - Platinum and palladium are mainly circulated in the form of metal ingots and sponge metals. The current global pricing system includes the London Platinum and Palladium Market for spot pricing and the New York Mercantile Exchange for futures pricing. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts to address China's lack of pricing power [32][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Cyclical Supply and Stable Ratio of Primary to Recycled**: Global platinum and palladium supply shows cyclical characteristics. The ratio of primary to recycled supply has remained relatively stable in the long term, with palladium having a slightly higher recycling ratio [51][52]. - **Overseas Primary Supply**: Platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. The production of platinum and palladium mines has shown a downward trend in recent years. The output of leading mining enterprises has decreased, and short - term supply may remain tight [57][58][62]. - **Recycled Platinum and Palladium**: The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector. Traditional recycling regions are developed economies in Europe, America, and Japan. China's recycled platinum production has been increasing. The supply of recycled platinum and palladium is related to the vehicle scrapping cycle and policy drivers [89][90][95]. 3.5 Global Platinum and Palladium Trade and China's Supply - In international trade, platinum and palladium are mainly exported from South Africa and Russia. China, Germany, the United States, and other countries are major importers. China is highly dependent on imports for platinum and palladium, facing long - term import risks. Some domestic enterprises are investing overseas, but it is difficult to change the import - dependent pattern in the short term [100][104][107]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: This is the main demand source for platinum and palladium. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, and palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts. The demand is related to automobile production and sales, policies, and price - driven substitution effects between platinum and palladium [133][134][136]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is an ideal material for high - end jewelry, especially in the wedding market. China is the main source of demand elasticity for platinum jewelry. Jewelry demand is related to macro - economic indicators and inventory cycles [148][149][158]. - **Industrial Demand**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in the industrial field. Platinum demand in the glass and chemical industries is related to the real - estate cycle and macro - economic indicators. The demand in the electronics, petrochemical, and medical industries is relatively stable. Hydrogen energy is a future growth point for demand [159][163][166].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific ratings for different sectors and varieties within the futures market, including "strongly bullish," "bullish," "sideways," "bearish," and "strongly bearish" [11][23][34][44]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market from a technical perspective, providing signals and trends for various sectors and varieties. It suggests different trading strategies based on the volatility and trends of each variety, emphasizing the importance of risk management and trading with pivot points [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Carbonate lithium and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lead, tin, nickel, alumina, and stainless steel show bearish signals. The rest are sideways [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like carbonate lithium have upward potential but are volatile; alumina faces downward pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties like copper, aluminum, and gold suggest conservative strategies [15][18]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Hot-rolled coil, iron ore, rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, with rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon being strongly bearish. The rest are sideways [22][23][24]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties such as coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon face downward risks. Coke is highly volatile but trendless. Medium-volatility varieties are under pressure, and low-volatility varieties like European container shipping are expected to be stable [29]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Asphalt shows a bearish signal, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sector, soda ash, caustic soda, and urea are sideways, while glass and methanol are bearish [33][34]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like glass and PVC face significant downward pressure, while natural rubber has opportunities but is volatile. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties suggest a wait-and-see approach [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rapeseed oil, live pigs, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, apples, and jujubes show bullish signals, while sugar and soybean No. 1 show bearish signals [43][44]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like apples have significant upward potential but are volatile, while rapeseed has no trend and is suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility bullish varieties have upward momentum, while bearish varieties like soybean No. 1 and sugar are under pressure. Oscillating varieties suggest a wait-and-see or range-trading approach [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level in the commodity options market declined this week, with average daily trading volume at 8.45 million lots and average daily open interest at 12.46 million lots, showing a -18.47% and +8.45% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly falling and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains and 20 with weekly losses. Some varieties' implied volatility continued to correct, and different trading strategies are recommended based on the implied volatility levels of different varieties. Also, the PCR values of different varieties indicate different market sentiment [2][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.45 million lots, a -18.47% change from the previous period, and the average daily open interest was 12.46 million lots, a +8.45% change. The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included glass (1.17 million lots), soda ash (1.08 million lots), and polysilicon (0.66 million lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 50%, namely eggs (+67%), rapeseed meal (+55%), and LPG (+51%), while the trading volume of p - xylene (-99%) and red dates (-87%) decreased significantly. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.69 million lots), soda ash (1.43 million lots), and soybean meal (1.07 million lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in daily average open interest were eggs (+38%), synthetic rubber (+38%), and Shanghai tin (+37%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The energy - chemical sector mostly fell, and the non - ferrous sector mostly rose. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains, with lithium carbonate (+11.15%), red dates (+5.68%), and apples (+4.11%) having relatively high weekly gains. There were 20 varieties with weekly losses, with crude oil (-7.22%), LPG (-4.82%), and caustic soda (-3.66%) having relatively high weekly losses [2][18]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options continued to correct this week. 33 varieties had their current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year's historical data. Varieties with implied volatility at historical highs in the past year included ferrosilicon, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and rapeseed meal, and traders are advised to be cautious of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at historical lows in the past year included methanol, ethylene glycol, urea, and non - ferrous metals, where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance ratio [2][18]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market, and attention should be paid to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of gold, oils and fats, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of p - xylene and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, suggesting that bearish sentiment in the market had accumulated to a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of nickel, gold, zinc, methanol, urea, and LPG was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment in the market [2][19]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are improving marginally and entering a destocking state, but there are differences between reality and expectations. Short - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [2][4]. - The increase in polysilicon delivery brands may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures market. In the short - term, the price may range from 45,000 to 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,710 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,395 yuan/ton to 50,790 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 47,200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Reality and Expectations Diverge, Polysilicon Adds Delivery Brands - **Industrial silicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. Xinjiang large factories resumed production slightly this week. In August, the supply may increase marginally by 2 - 3 tons, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, industrial silicon may still destock in August [13]. - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated downward. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 77.4%, and the weekly output was 5.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. It is expected that prices will oscillate weakly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. In August, production is expected to increase to 12.5 - 13 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 1.5 - 2 tons. The first - stage price control of the "anti - involution" is basically determined, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress [15]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of silicon wafer factories increased. In August, the expected production was 53GW, and it may increase to 57 - 58GW in the next two weeks. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Battery cells**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased. In August, the production of Chinese enterprises' domestic batteries was about 58GW. Prices are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Components**: Prices oscillated. In August, the production of components did not decrease significantly, and the subsequent production may continue to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the follow - up bidding situation [18]. - **New delivery brands**: Xinjiang Gerns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. were added as polysilicon futures registered brands, applicable to PS2511 and subsequent contracts. The new brands may have an impact on PS2512 and subsequent contracts [19]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Industrial silicon**: Recommend a buy - on - dips strategy in the short - term, with risks in large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Unilateral trading should adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. Consider buying PS2511 contracts on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to the 9 - 12 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [4]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two polysilicon futures registered brands [22]. - The US launched a second sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic products [23]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [25][27][32]. - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, inventory, and weekly production [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43]. - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [44][46][47]. - **Battery cells**: Comprises data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54]. - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price continues to oscillate, with regional price differences widening. After the U.S. clarified that gold is not subject to tariffs, the price difference between New York gold and London gold converged. The market will focus more on the economic fundamentals, and the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging. The U.S. economy shows signs of stagflation. The short - term gold price remains in an oscillatory state, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - Various gold - related indicators show changes, including a 28.0% change in the domestic basis, a - 49.1% change in the internal - external futures price difference, a 0.8% increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, etc. [12] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.35%, oil prices fell 4.9%, the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.39%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.97% to 98.2, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.28%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.36%, and the VIX index dropped to 15.15 [18][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 2.43%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11%. Real interest rates fluctuated around 1.88%, the gold price rose 1%, the spot commodity index rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index closed down. U.S. and German bonds rebounded, the U.S. - German interest rate spread is 1.59%, the UK Treasury yield is 4.6%, and the Japanese bond yield is 1.49%. The euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, and most non - U.S. currencies appreciated [23][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation rose to 162,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 959 tons. The RMB appreciated slightly, and Shanghai gold was at a discount to the overseas market. Gold and silver closed up, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88.6 [35][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important economic data and events include Japan's market closure on Monday, the U.S. July CPI and 7 - month NFIB small business confidence index and the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate meeting on Tuesday, Germany's July CPI on Thursday, and the U.S. July PPI and initial jobless claims on Friday [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] Core View of the Report - The alumina futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. The supply of alumina has turned to a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the continuous generation of warehouse receipts exerts significant pressure on the futures price [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 658 yuan/ton, and the arrival含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Continuous rainfall in core bauxite - producing areas increased the difficulty of mine operation and ore transportation, causing raw material supply shortages for some alumina enterprises [1][11]. - The price index of Guinea ore (45/3) remained in the range of 73 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. The shipping volume from Guinea in July was about 11 million wet tons, and the impact of the decline in shipping on the supply side will be reflected in August, September, and October. The Guinean government revoked the memorandum of understanding with Shunda Mining, halting production and shipping again. Miners' willingness to support prices strengthened, but downstream buyers were not interested in purchasing. During the period, 4.813 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.818 million tons from Guinea and 0.885 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China remained at 23.5 - 24 US dollars/ton [1][11]. Alumina - Alumina spot prices rose last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was in the range of 3230 - 3331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3289.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3400 - 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The overall spot market was in a wait - and - see mood with few public transactions. In the northern market, 10,000 tons of spot alumina were traded, a decrease of 21,600 tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2][12]. - Overseas, 30,000 tons of Indian alumina were traded at FOB 377.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12.05 US dollars/ton from the late - July transaction price. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2805 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 493 yuan/ton. The average profit of the alumina industry rose to about 200 yuan/ton, enhancing the stability of production. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with 95.35 million tons in operation, an increase of 600,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [2][12]. Demand - Domestically, the operating capacity of Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum increased to 120,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous week. The operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 30,000 tons to about 50,000 tons, and the enterprise's start - up work was in progress. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.853 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 29.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [13]. Inventory - As of Thursday (August 7), the national alumina inventory was 3.285 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from the previous week. The improvement in upstream execution efficiency led to an increase in the arrival of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants, and the inventory continued to rise. The production stability of alumina enterprises improved, increasing the bagged inventory in the plants. The port inventory fluctuated slightly, and the delivery warehouse began to show an increase, with a slight increase in the in - transit and yard inventory [13]. Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 26,182 tons, an increase of 19,567 tons from the previous week [14]. 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain During the Week - The Australian alumina quotation was about 373 US dollars/ton as of Thursday (August 7), a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The estimated cost of reaching Chinese ports was about 3283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic spot price fluctuated slightly, with a theoretical import profit of - 13 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton when calculated based on the current southern regional price [15]. - Due to the rainy season restricting local ore mining, two plants of an alumina enterprise in Shanxi reduced production. The daily alumina output of Jiaokou Plant decreased from 6500 tons to 4500 - 5000 tons, and the Xiaoyi Plant maintained an output of about 4500 tons, with production to be adjusted according to ore supply [15]. - On August 7, 2000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3383 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina enterprise and a local downstream aluminum plant [15]. 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - This part includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic steam coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][26]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It involves data on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][40]. 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - This section contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts [42][47][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stock markets rising, most bond yields falling, and the US Treasury yield rising to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] - The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced market trading logic. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market [2] - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders may have limited effect on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There are variables in the process, and the US dollar index continues to face downward pressure [37][38] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields fell, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, most non - US currencies appreciated, gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with both US and A - shares rising over 2%. Developed markets' stock markets rebounded, the S&P 500 rose 2.43%, emerging markets' stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.5%. The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced the market. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market. Domestic economic data was better than expected, but inflation pressure was still low, and the stock market's optimistic sentiment fluctuated but remained strong overall [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond market yields mostly declined, while the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. Eurozone government bonds mostly declined, and emerging market bond yields mostly declined. The UK central bank cut interest rates as expected, but the number of voting members against the cut increased. The nomination of Milan as a temporary Fed governor may increase the dovish camp in the Fed. The demand for US 10 - year Treasury bond auctions was poor, and US Treasury yields still have room to rise. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly dropped to 1.7%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly widened to 258bp, and the domestic bond market rebounded, but the rebound space was limited [14][18][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.06%, the euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, the rand rose 2%, and the real, peso, Thai baht, and rupee rose over 1%. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar closed higher [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce. US tariff policies and the increase in the Fed's dovish camp pushed up the price of gold, but the price remained in a volatile range. Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel. The upcoming meeting between the US and Russia and OPEC+ production increases made the crude oil supply - demand pattern remain loose. The domestic industrial product market was in a stage of increased long - short game, and the commodity spot index closed higher with fluctuations [31][33] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The meeting between US and Russian leaders is scheduled. The expected effect of this meeting on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict is limited, and there are variables in the process [34][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's market is closed for one day - Tuesday: US July CPI, July NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; Australia's central bank interest rate meeting - Wednesday: Germany's July CPI - Thursday: US July PPI, weekly initial jobless claims - Friday: China's July social retail sales, industrial added value; US July retail sales, preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remains overvalued, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching its 2024/10/8 high and the PETTM of Wind All - A at 20.7x. China's foreign trade sector is strong, and domestic policies are showing positive changes, which may contribute to the market's overvaluation [3][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Views and Macroeconomic Key Event Overview - **Next Week's View**: Pay attention to changes in July's economic data. Despite the market being overvalued, China's foreign trade is strong, and domestic policies are showing positive changes, which may be the reason for the market's overvaluation [3][11] - **This Week's Key Events**: Multiple significant events occurred from August 4th to 8th, including changes in service trade deficits, central bank liquidity operations, policy releases on finance and education, and international trade policies [12][15][18] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose this week (08/04 - 08/08). The MSCI Global Index increased by 2.52%, with frontier markets (+3.95%) > developed markets (+2.55%) > emerging markets (+2.25%). South African stocks led the global rise with a 6.29% increase, while Indian stocks had the worst performance, dropping 1.09% [2][26] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets rose significantly this week. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1696.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 113.3 billion yuan from last week. Most indexes rose by over 1%, with the micro - cap stock index rising 4.49% and the ChiNext Index rising 0.49% [2][29] - **Weekly Overview of GICS First - Level Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS first - level industries rose this week. The leading industry was materials (+4.15%), and the underperforming industry was healthcare (-0.44%). In the Chinese market, materials led the rise (+3.53%), and healthcare led the decline (-0.72%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC First - Level Industries**: Among China A - share CITIC first - level industries, 28 rose (6 last week) and 2 fell (24 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+5.83%), and the industry with the largest decline was pharmaceuticals (-0.79%) [2][33] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles**: The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style favored small - cap stocks [38] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: Provided the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [40][42] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: Presented the PE, PB, and their changes and eight - year percentiles of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [47] - **First - Level Industry Valuation**: Showed the PE, PB, and their changes and eight - year percentiles of various first - level industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [48] - **Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes**: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [49][54] - **Consensus Expected Earnings Growth of Broad - Based Indexes**: Adjusted the expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for 2025 and 2026 [55] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10 - year yield decreased, the 1 - year yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB was 7.19 [65] - **Trading - Type Fund Tracking**: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 31.4 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 32.6 billion yuan [64] - **Fund Inflows through ETFs**: Tracked the number and share changes of ETFs tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500. The shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 and CSI 500 decreased, while those tracking the CSI 1000 increased [68][69][71] 5. Domestic Macroeconomic High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Supply Side**: Tire operating rates rebounded [75][77] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined [83][92] - **Inflation Observation**: Producer prices rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [94][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable period. The pattern of fundamental factors favoring the bond market remains unchanged, the central bank is expected to continue to support market liquidity, and the bond market should continue to strengthen slightly [2][16] - The performance of credit data in July should be relatively weak, and the tax period is a disturbing factor, but the central bank can keep the capital market in an overall balanced state. After continuous upward movement, the upward momentum of the stock market has weakened, and it is expected to consolidate next week [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 4th to August 10th, treasury bond futures rose slightly. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as new bond interest taxation news, rumors about bond issuance changes, stock market trends, and central bank liquidity operations. As of August 8th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.370, 105.820, 108.610, and 119.250 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.090, +0.160, and +0.160 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The fundamental factors favorable to the bond market remain unchanged. The 7 - month financial data to be released next week is expected to be weak. The central bank will continue to support liquidity, and the capital market will be balanced. The difficulty of further increasing market risk appetite next week is relatively high, and the bond market will be less sensitive to the rise of the stock market [16][17] - Strategies include: holding long positions in trading accounts next week, paying close attention to market sentiment changes, holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and observing the narrowing of inter - period spreads [18][19] 3.2 Interest - Bearing Bond Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 62 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8085.09 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 5958.98 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields mostly declined. As of August 8th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.55%, 1.69%, and 1.96% respectively, with changes of - 2.44, - 2.32, - 1.76, and +1.00 bp compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. As of August 8th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.370, 105.820, 108.610, and 119.250 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.018, +0.090, +0.160, and +0.160 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - term treasury bond futures changed to varying degrees [36][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contracts was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit interest rate was between 1.5% - 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies was relatively limited [43] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 8th, the inter - period spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.066, - 0.055, +0.105, and +0.370 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, 0.000, +0.080, and +0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. Next week, the inter - period spreads are expected to oscillate within a narrow range and narrow slightly [46][47] 3.4 Capital Market Weekly Observation - This week, the central bank conducted 11267 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 16632 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5365 billion yuan. Capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined slightly. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [51][54][56] 3.5 Overseas Weekly Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds increased. As of August 8th, the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 98.2670 compared to the previous weekend's close, the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was reported at 4.27%, up 4BP from the previous weekend, and the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 258.0BP [61] 3.6 Inflation High - Frequency Data Weekly Observation - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. The Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed by - 35.19, +75.23, and - 36.18 points respectively compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also showed mixed trends, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changing by - 0.19, +0.21, and - 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared to the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Advice - The first and middle ten - days of August are a favorable period for the bond market, and trading accounts can continue to hold long positions next week [18][66]