日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 最新的美国经济数据不及预期，美国经济下行压力加剧，美元 短期走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数近一年来首次萎缩 经济下行风险不断积累，但在降息预期的支撑下，市场风险偏 好并未明显回落，美股延续震荡走势。 综 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 合 河北炼焦煤市场持稳运行 晨 报 短期来看，焦煤基本面暂无明显变化，更多是交易基差和情绪 修复，后续需关注供应变化 有色金属（锌） 上海锌：下游企业畏高，成交表现较差 CSZTP 发布 3Q25 进口加工费指导区间于 80-100 美元/干吨，对 应国内 TC 在 4000-4500 元/吨，预计年内加工费仍有不小上行空 间。 能源化工（纯碱） 6 月 4 日华北市场纯碱价格行情 今日纯碱期价涨幅较大，一方面受益于市场整体风险偏好回升， 另一方面也是联碱法成本附近本身存在一定支撑。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 ...

Report Title - Focus Container Port and Key Hub Monitoring 20250604 [1] Data Review Asia Ports - Yangshan Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 24.1 hours/23.8 hours, with 28/29 ships at anchor/berthed; congestion has worsened compared to the previous period [2]. - Ningbo Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 12.6 hours/26.0 hours, with 14/33 ships at anchor/berthed; domestic main ports' congestion has worsened, and the average ship stay in port has increased [2]. - Singapore Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 4.0 hours/29.2 hours, with 6/46 ships at anchor/berthed [2]. - Port Klang: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 34.4 hours/27.9 hours, with 14/25 ships at anchor/berthed; it continues to operate under overload, and congestion has worsened, with the average ship stay in port extended to 3 days [2]. Europe Ports - Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 12.4 hours/42.2 hours, 25.3 hours/45.1 hours, 10.9 hours/38.7 hours, 6.2 hours/37.0 hours respectively; intermittent strikes, cargo backlogs, and labor shortages cause congestion and common schedule delays [2]. - Valencia: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 0.6 hours/37.6 hours, with 2/10 ships at anchor/berthed [2]. North America Ports - Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/77.2 hours, 1.2 hours/84.6 hours, 0 hours/113.4 hours respectively; operations are in good condition, but attention should be paid to potential congestion when more goods arrive [2]. - New York, Savannah, Norfolk: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/38.9 hours, 18.5 hours/35.3 hours, 2.2 hours/22.5 hours respectively [2]. - Houston Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 5.0 hours/49.6 hours [2]. Port Stay Duration Summary - Yangshan: The latest stay is 48.3 hours, with a monthly increase of 5.8 hours and a yearly increase of 15.4 hours [6]. - Ningbo: The latest stay is 38.8 hours, with a monthly decrease of 3.2 hours and a yearly increase of 4.2 hours [6]. - Singapore: The latest stay is 33.2 hours, with a monthly increase of 2.0 hours and a yearly decrease of 8.6 hours [6]. - Port Klang: The latest stay is 61.6 hours, with a monthly increase of 11.6 hours and a yearly increase of 5.0 hours [6]. - Busan: The latest stay is 35.1 hours, with a monthly increase of 1.2 hours and a yearly increase of 5.7 hours [6]. - Rotterdam: The latest stay is 51.4 hours, with a monthly decrease of 6.9 hours and a yearly decrease of 7.0 hours [6]. - Hamburg: The latest stay is 51.7 hours, with a monthly decrease of 24.5 hours and a yearly decrease of 20.5 hours [6]. - Felixstowe: The latest stay is 88.0 hours, with a monthly increase of 19.2 hours and a yearly increase of 31.6 hours [6]. - Valencia: The latest stay is 34.5 hours, with a monthly decrease of 8.7 hours and a yearly decrease of 1.1 hours [6]. - Piraeus: The latest stay is 60.9 hours, with a monthly decrease of 0.6 hours and a yearly increase of 39.2 hours [6]. - Long Beach: The latest stay is 87.2 hours, with a monthly decrease of 7.9 hours and a yearly decrease of 19.5 hours [6]. - Los Angeles: The latest stay is 88.2 hours, with a monthly decrease of 14.8 hours and a yearly decrease of 14.9 hours [6]. - New York: The latest stay is 38.9 hours, with a monthly decrease of 7.8 hours and a yearly decrease of 9.5 hours [6]. - Savannah: The latest stay is 53.1 hours, with a monthly decrease of 2.9 hours and a yearly decrease of 21.3 hours [6]. - Santos: The latest stay is 52.8 hours, with a monthly increase of 13.6 hours and a yearly decrease of 3.1 hours [6]. Key Insights - Asian ports, especially some in China and Southeast Asia, are facing increasing congestion, and with the release of pre - export orders and the arrival of the shipping peak season, port pressure will continue to rise [2]. - European ports, affected by issues such as strikes and labor shortages, still have congestion problems and widespread schedule delays [2]. - North American ports are currently operating well, but there is a need to watch out for potential congestion when more goods arrive [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - **Financial Sector** - **Gold**: Short - term market in a multi - empty game, gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. - **Commodity Sector** - **Black Metals** - **动力煤**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **铁矿石**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **螺纹钢/热轧卷板**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品** - **豆油/菜油/棕榈油**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **豆粕**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **玉米淀粉**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **玉米**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属** - **多晶硅**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **铅**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **锌**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **工业硅**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **碳酸锂**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **铜**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **镍**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工** - **原油**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **碳排放**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **烧碱**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **纸浆**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **PVC**: The disk may be volatile and weak [73]. - **PX**: Short - term volatility is weak, and try long positions in the medium - long term [77]. - **PTA**: The price is expected to correct marginally in the short term [79]. - **尿素**: Treat it as volatile in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [81]. - **瓶片**: Consider building long positions on processing margins at low prices [84]. - **苯乙烯**: The styrene - crude oil spread is expected to be weak and volatile, and the absolute price depends more on macro - guidance [87]. - **纯碱**: Maintain a view of shorting at high prices in the medium term [88]. - **浮法玻璃**: The spot price and disk are difficult to improve before the inventory of original sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced [90]. - **航运 Index** - **集装箱运价**: The probability of the freight rate center rising is still high; pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [91]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, inflation control by the Federal Reserve, employment data, and trade policies are the key factors affecting the trends of various financial products. In the commodity market, factors such as supply and demand, seasonal changes, and policy adjustments have significant impacts on commodity prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile, and different investment strategies are recommended according to the characteristics of each market. 3. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Comments - **宏观策略（黄金）** - **News**: Fed official Bostic said there is still a long way to fight inflation, and there may be a rate cut this year depending on economic conditions; US April JOLTs job openings were 7.391 million, higher than expected [12][13]. - **Comment**: Gold prices are in a volatile pattern. The lack of a breakthrough in the upward movement is due to factors such as the higher - than - expected number of job openings and the hawkish stance of Fed officials [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **宏观策略（股指期货）** - **News**: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, UnionPay and NetsUnion processed payment transactions with an amount 3.4% higher than the previous year; the State Council Premier met with the Japanese trade delegation; the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Service Consumption Season" activity [14][15][16]. - **Comment**: The market maintained a high risk preference after the holiday, with a significant seesaw effect and a sharp rise in micro - cap stocks [17][18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **宏观策略（国债期货）** - **News**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [20][21]. - **Comment**: The foundation for economic fundamental recovery is not solid, but the bond market's reaction to fundamental data is dull. There are still short - end carry problems and market negative disturbances [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)）** - **News**: Fed理事Cook said tariffs may exacerbate inflation and weaken employment; the South Korean presidential term of Lee Jae - myung officially began; the US Trade Representative's Office reminded trading partners of the end of the tariff suspension period [23][24]. - **Comment**: The US tariff negotiation needs to be accelerated, and the trend of Trump's tariff policy change remains unchanged. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **宏观策略（美国股指期货）** - **News**: The US raised the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (25% for the UK); Fed official Bostic said the central bank can be patient under tariff uncertainties; US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased [26][27][28]. - **Comment**: The unexpected increase in job openings eases concerns about economic downturn, but the employment market still shows signs of weakness. US stocks are expected to be volatile [28]. - **Investment Suggestion**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **黑色金属（动力煤）** - **News**: Since April 2025, China's coal production capacity has continued to be released, and coal imports have decreased [30]. - **Comment**: Coal prices have stabilized slightly due to power plant replenishment. If replenishment slows, coal prices may resume a downward trend [30]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **黑色金属（铁矿石）** - **News**: The OECD lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [32]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of iron ore are seasonally weak, and there is pressure on port inventories to accumulate. There is still some downward space for prices [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油）** - **News**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons; Canada's Prime Minister hopes China will cancel tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [33][34]. - **Comment**: Palm oil prices are supported by improved demand but lack continuous upward momentum; rapeseed oil prices may decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [34]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **农产品（豆粕）** - **News**: The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 1.67%; port soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continue to rise [36][37][38]. - **Comment**: The first US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, but there is no short - term speculation theme. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure continues to increase [38]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **农产品（玉米淀粉）** - **News**: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong are negative [39]. - **Comment**: Starch losses continue to expand, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The regional spread may decline slightly after large - scale wheat substitution [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板）** - **News**: The auto - dealer chamber of commerce called for抵制 "price war" competition; China's heavy - truck sales in May were 83,000 units [41][43]. - **Comment**: Steel prices are weakly volatile. The trading logic is still dominated by weak demand expectations, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品（玉米）** - **News**: The national average corn price on June 3 increased by 0.19% from the previous trading day [45]. - **Comment**: Spot prices are slightly stronger, while futures prices decline slightly. Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属（多晶硅）** - **News**: The national new - energy grid - connected consumption situation in April 2025 was announced; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,100 lots [46][47]. - **Comment**: The disk may show a reverse - spread logic, but whether the structure can completely turn to contango is uncertain. The supply - demand situation in June is expected to improve, but the market is still affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream inventory [47]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **有色金属（铅）** - **News**: On June 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $22.17 per ton; SMM lead - ingot social inventories increased [49]. - **Comment**: The domestic lead - concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The lead price is in a short - position pattern, but the short - selling profit - loss ratio is not good. Pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **有色金属（锌）** - **News**: As of June 3, SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventories increased; on June 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $26.08 per ton [51][52]. - **Comment**: The zinc price declined with weakening macro - sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to weaken in June, and the supply is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be short - biased [52]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **有色金属（工业硅）** - **News**: The industrial silicon production in May 2025 was 307,700 tons [54]. - **Comment**: Some large factories in Xinjiang may suspend their resumption plans. The demand is not significantly improved. The spot price may bottom out, but the futures price is more affected by sentiment [54][55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **有色金属（碳酸锂）** - **News**: Longpan Technology signed a sales contract for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 5 billion yuan [56]. - **Comment**: The monthly spread strengthened during the decline last week. Pay attention to the stability of the spot basis and the rhythm of warehouse - receipt generation [56]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **有色金属（铜）** - **News**: Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be shut down for about a month; Chile's copper production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; Panama approved the maintenance plan for First Quantum's copper mine [58][59][60]. - **Comment**: The market has different views on the macro - situation. The domestic inventory may accumulate weakly, while the LME inventory is expected to decrease. The disk is expected to be volatile [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **有色金属（镍）** - **News**: PT Bumi Mineral Sulawesi signed a nickel - matte sales agreement; Vale signed a nickel - mine exploitation agreement; LME nickel inventories increased on June 3 [62][63][64]. - **Comment**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The nickel - ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron price has risen slightly. The disk has support below but lacks upward drive [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工（原油）** - **News**: The US API crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending May 30 [65]. - **Comment**: Oil prices are volatile and rising. Geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the gasoline inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand needs to be observed [65]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **能源化工（碳排放）** - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encouraged key energy - consuming units to use green electricity [67]. - **Comment**: The policy will promote the development of green - electricity consumption and the green and low - carbon transformation of the power system [67]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **能源化工（烧碱）** - **News**: On June 3, the liquid - caustic soda market price in Shandong was flexibly adjusted [69]. - **Comment**: The supply of liquid caustic soda decreased during the holiday, and the demand was stable. The price of the 09 contract is limited in its downward space [70]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **能源化工（纸浆）** - **News**: The import wood - pulp spot market price was mainly stable on June 3 [71]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the macro - situation has temporarily stopped warming. The disk is expected to be volatile [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **能源化工（PVC）** - **News**: The domestic PVC powder

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ decided to maintain a production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July, with the current production policy mainly aiming to maintain market share. The accelerated production increase by OPEC+ has led to a risk of supply surplus, and the over - production situation in some member countries has not shown obvious improvement [2][3][24] - The demand in major markets is currently relatively stable, but the market's outlook for medium - and long - term demand remains cautious, and it is difficult to drive oil prices up in the short term. The increase in global on - land crude oil inventories since the second quarter is the main factor suppressing the upside space of oil prices [3][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 OPEC+ Production Increase Plan in July - Eight member countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman) will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The gradually increasing production may be suspended or reversed according to market conditions. The eight countries also agreed to fully compensate for any excess production since January 2024 [10] - As of April, the total production of OPEC+减产 countries was 34 million barrels per day, basically in line with the upper limit of the total production target. The actual production of the eight voluntary - production - cut countries was 30.81 million barrels per day, with an increase lower than the planned increase [10] - In April, the eight voluntary - production - cut countries still exceeded the production limit by about 260,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan was the main over - producing country, with a production of 1.82 million barrels per day in April, still exceeding the target by about 350,000 barrels per day [11] 3.2 Reasons for OPEC+ Production Increase and Member - Specific Situations - The main purpose of the eight core member countries to accelerate production increase is to maintain their market share. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have high idle production capacity and strict past production - cut implementation, with high potential for future production increase [2][13] - Kazakhstan's over - production has deteriorated this year. Its current production is close to the capacity limit, and future production increase space is limited. Due to the government's limited ability to intervene in the production of major oil fields, it is difficult for Kazakhstan to reach the OPEC+ agreed production target, which may threaten the stability of the alliance [14][16] 3.3 Supply Situations in Iran and Venezuela - Iran's supply is expected to remain stable in the short term. Although the US has upgraded sanctions on Iran's oil trade, it has not yet caused substantial damage to Iran's export volume. However, Iran's floating storage inventory has reached a one - year high, indicating a decline in turnover efficiency [18] - Venezuela's crude oil production and export volume have declined. After Chevron's withdrawal, the lack of investment and stable diluent supply will be the main factors hindering Venezuela from maintaining production [19] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, geopolitical conflict risks have caused disturbances, but it is difficult to continuously boost oil prices. The demand during the peak season needs time to be observed, and the increase in global on - land crude oil inventories is suppressing the upside space of oil prices [3][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable this week, but demand continues to shrink, component production is expected to decline significantly compared to May, and glass consumption may decrease significantly. With the industry's supply - demand gap further widening, the price in the new month is expected to be adjusted downward based on the settlement price in May [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: One production line produced glass last week, increasing actual output. There are no new investment or cold - repair plans this week, so supply is expected to remain stable [7][12]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for photovoltaic glass continued to shrink, with almost no order deliveries at the end of the month. This week, the industry will start discussing new - month orders, and component production is expected to decline significantly compared to May, leading to a significant reduction in glass consumption [7][23]. - Inventory: Due to the continuous reduction in terminal demand, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to rise last week, and the industry inventory has returned to a high level, with great inventory pressure [7][30]. - Price: As the supply - demand gap widens, the price in the new month is expected to be adjusted based on the May settlement price [7]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of May 30, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 12.5 yuan/square meter, down from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 21.5 yuan/square meter, unchanged from last week [8]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - One production line produced glass last week, increasing actual output. There are no new investment or cold - repair plans this week, so supply is expected to remain stable [12]. 3.2.3 Demand - side - Last week, the demand for photovoltaic glass continued to shrink, with almost no order deliveries at the end of the month. This week, the industry will start discussing new - month orders, and component production is expected to decline significantly compared to May, leading to a significant reduction in glass consumption [23]. 3.2.4 Inventory - side - Due to the continuous reduction in terminal demand, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to rise last week, and the industry inventory has returned to a high level, with great inventory pressure [30]. 3.2.5 Cost - profit side - Recently, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry has continued to decline and is currently around - 1.35% [32]. 3.2.6 Trade - side - From January to April 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [39].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月制造业 PMI 连续第三个月收缩 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-03 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月制造业 PMI 连续第三个月收缩 贸易谈判进展持续扰动市场，三大股指低开高走，除工业外所 有板块均录得上涨。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普：美国不会同意伊朗进行任何铀浓缩活动 乌克兰对于俄罗斯进行了大规模的无人机打击，这意味着俄乌 冲突烈度上升，市场风险避险情绪上升。 综 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 合 5 月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数环比下降 7.1 个百分点 晨 报 钢材基本面变化依然不大，五大品种去库与上周基本一致，铁 水减产略有加快。由于需求走弱预期难以证伪，加之成本端有 明显下移，钢价近期预期延续弱势格局。 有色金属（铜） 智利 4 月铜产量同比增加 13.5% 海外制造业景气度边际回升，继续重点观察美国关税政策变化， 短期风险偏好回升，铜价继续高位震荡可能性更大。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+决定 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/天 油价周一反弹，修复 OPEC+会议前跌幅。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金属） | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.47 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.48 million lots, showing a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options decreased, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties include rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties include polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. - This week, the implied volatility of some commodities rebounded, with 34 varieties showing a month - on - month increase in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber carry unilateral risks, and investors are advised to focus on short - volatility opportunities; low - volatility varieties like vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore have lower option purchase prices, and industrial customers can consider deploying insurance strategies [2][15]. - Currently, the volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 5.47 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.48 million lots, with a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties this week included PTA (530,000 lots), glass (460,000 lots), and soda ash (430,000 lots). Six varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant increases in paraxylene (+3439%), industrial silicon (+198%), and bottle chips (+150%); significant decreases were seen in polystyrene (-84%) and ethylene glycol (-61%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and glass (570,000 lots). Rapid growth in open interest was observed in paraxylene (+117%), industrial silicon (+89%), and manganese silicon (+45%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options decreased this week, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties were rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties were polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodities rebounded this week, with 34 varieties having a month - on - month increase in implied volatility and 27 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore [2][15]. 3.2.3 Option Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting high - level accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Orient Futures Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19].

smingfTable_Title] 中汽协发布于维护公平竞争秩序、 促进行业健康发展的倡议 ★ 动态跟踪 2025 年第 21 周（5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日），国内乘用车零 售 39.4 万辆，同比增长 10.6%；新能源乘用车零售 22.0 万辆，同 比增长 19.7%；新能源渗透率为 55.9%。今年以来，国内乘用车 累计零售 810.0 万辆，同比增长 4.8%；新能源乘用车累计零售 400.8 万辆，同比增长 30.4%；累计新能源渗透率为 49.5%。 月初各新能源车企发布 5 月交付数据，零跑汽车连续三个月 稳居造车新势力领先地位，小鹏汽车同比增速高企。 周度报告——新能源汽车 新 能 源 另，中汽协发布《关于维护公平竞争秩序、促进行业健康发 展的倡议》，提到，以无序"价格战"为主要表现形式的"内卷 式"竞争，是行业效益下降的重要因素。希望全行业同心协力， 共同维护公平竞争秩序，促进行业健康、可持续发展。 与 新 材 料 海外市场，欧洲 4 月乘用车销量较去年持平，纯电动车、插 混电动车增长 27.8%、31.1%。特斯拉欧洲销量占有率从 2023 年、 2024 年的 12%降至 ...

周度报告-黄金 关税扰动犹存，黄金走势震荡 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 2%至 3289 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.41%，通胀预 期 2.33%，实际利率微降至 2.07%，美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，标普 500 指数涨 1.88%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金维持溢价。 贵 金 属 节前金价小幅回调，内外盘黄金期货持仓量均出现一定的减仓， 既有 06 合约步入交割月的影响也有国内假期因素影响，市场仍然 受到美国对外关税政策的扰动。美国国际贸易法院阻止"解放日" 关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为由，援引《国际紧急经济 权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行为，但随后联邦上诉法院暂 停一项阻止特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，在此过程中黄金先跌后 涨，美国继续实施对等关税。同时美国与欧盟、日本的谈判也在 继续推进，特朗普表示与中国的谈判目前处于停滞状态，并且威 胁对进口钢铁和铝加征 50%关税，市场避险情绪有所回升。 基本面数据显示美国通胀压力尚未体现关税影响，4 月核心 PCE 同比从 2.7%回落至 2.5%，环比增速 0.1%，均符合市场预期。个 人收入环比增长 0.8% ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 特朗普关税再度施压，美元短期走弱 市场风险偏好摇摆，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.4%。美元指数涨 0.22%至 99.3，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.45%，欧元跌 0.14%，英镑跌 0.58%，日元 跌 1.02%，瑞郎跌 0.16%，雷亚尔、韩元、比索跌超 1%，澳 元、兰特、泰铢、林吉特、新西兰元收跌。金价跌 2%至 3289 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 18.6，现货商品指数收跌，布油跌 2.5%至 63.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 股市情绪受到特朗普政府关税政策的扰动，先是美国国际贸易 法院阻止"解放日"关税生效，裁定特朗普以贸易逆差等为 由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》征收全面关税，属于越权行 为，股市情绪一度被提振。但随后联邦上诉法院暂停一项阻止 特朗普征收全球关税的裁决，美国继续对外加征关税，美国与 欧盟、日本等其他国家的贸易谈判也在继续推进，仍然牵动市 场神经。特朗普也再度施压中国，表示谈判目前停滞状态，并 将对外的钢铁等关税提升至 50%。美联储 5 月利率会议纪要显 示经济面 ...