1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on alumina is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, while the long - term view is to mainly adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The current reduction in ore inventory will not cause a long - term supply gap, which limits the upside potential of alumina prices and profits. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the supply gap of alumina has narrowed [15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 668 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on mine output. Three mines in the AXIS mining area remained shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased, with the mainstream price at 74 - 75 dollars/dry ton. Newly arrived ore was 367.1 million tons, including 269.1 million tons from Guinea and 81.3 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China rose slightly to 20 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: Spot prices rose overall. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3297.7 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market supply contraction supported the price. In the northern market, 2.5 million tons of alumina were traded, down 2.2 million tons from last week, with a weighted trading price of 3304 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In Indonesia, 3 million tons of alumina were traded at FOB 373 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3253 yuan/ton in RMB. The domestic alumina full - cost was 3087 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 184 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11242 million tons and an operating capacity of 8930 million tons, up 130 million tons from last week, and an operating rate of 79.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 4392.3 million tons, flat week - on - week. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in New Zealand, Germany started the复产 work, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 8 million tons week - on - week to 2948.8 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of May 29th, the national alumina inventory was 316.2 million tons, down 4.8 million tons from last week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was basically stable; the inventory of alumina enterprises was mostly low; the port alumina inventory was at a low level [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 128201 tons, down 35998 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3350 yuan/ton on May 29th - In Henan, 0.4 million tons of alumina were traded on May 28th, with a weighted average price of 3295 yuan/ton - 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong on May 28th at a price of 3300 yuan/ton [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From January to May 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina changed over time [31][32][37] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [40][43][45]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 价格快速下杀，关注供给端变化 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂部分复产，但由于工业硅价格快速下跌，市场亦传言 其后续复产规划将暂且搁置。6 月西南进入丰水期后，预计仍 有少量工厂计划复产。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅开工 率回升，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需采购。 多晶硅厂家近期粉单招标价格下跌至 8800-9000 元/吨，有机硅 亦以 521#替代 421#，521#采购价格在 8300-8400 元/吨。目前 盘面价格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，基差快速走强，部分贸 易商开始陆续囤货，后续关注供给端的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 6 月签单逐步展开，现货成交价格略有下调。考虑龙头企业率 先复产乐山产能，6 月硅片排产上调至 9.3 万吨。此外，市场 传言某新疆二三线硅料厂二期产能有复产计划，后续根据实际 进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。根据 SMM，截至 5 月 29 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+1 万吨。近期下游备货 使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为前期原材料库存较 高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料囤货。在多晶硅现 ...

周度报告——股指期货 关税扰动仍存，股指缩量震荡 | 走势评级: | | --- | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a美ry]国关税闹剧反复，A 股大盘股回调 股 指 期 货 本周（05.26-05.30）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 1.60%，其中发达市场（+1.60%）>前沿市场（+1.22%）> 新兴市场（-1.16%）。韩国股指涨 3.63%领跑全球，中国股市跌 2.77%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看， A 股>港股>中概股。 A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 10941 亿元，环比上周（11735 亿元) 缩量 794 亿元。A 股指数中，大盘蓝筹股指普遍收跌，北证 50、 微盘股指数则表现强势，周度涨超 2%。本周 A 股中信一级行业 中共 20 个上涨（上周 9 个），10 个下跌（上周 10 个）。领涨 行业为综合金融（+10.50%），跌幅最大的行业为汽车（-4.32%）。 利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 上行，利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周增加 6 亿份， 跟踪中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (May 26 - May 30), lithium salt prices continued to be weak. The closing prices of LC2506 and LC2507 decreased by 1.9% week - on - week to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate decreased by 4.1% week - on - week to 59,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide was weak, with the average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreasing by 2.5% and 2.3% week - on - week to 63,100 and 68,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate continued to widen to 2,400 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - The resurgence of the new energy vehicle price war and news about "zero - kilometer used cars" increased market concerns about new energy vehicle inventory pressure, leading to concerns about the slowdown of terminal demand growth and dragging down prices. The inventory of new energy vehicles in China has increased to 1.1 months in the past half - year. In June, the apparent demand in the power sector remained stable month - on - month, while the energy storage sector saw a slight increase month - on - month [2][13] - During the decline last week, the monthly spread strengthened significantly. LC2507 - 2509 strengthened from 1200C to around 100C, possibly due to some funds in LC2507 changing positions in advance. The strengthening of the monthly spread may cause some hedging positions to shift to the near - end. Attention should be paid to whether the spot basis can remain stable and the rhythm of warrant generation [3][14] - Currently, the negative feedback between ore and salt is not over, terminal demand uncertainty is increasing, and the spot pressure is also increasing marginally after the rapid strengthening of the structure. In the short term, the fundamentals are bearish. However, considering that the ore price is approaching the current cash cost of some mines, the short - term downward space is limited. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current level, and previous short positions can be gradually rolled over when the monthly spread is appropriate [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Concerns Caused by Power - end Inventory and Volatile Monthly Spread within the Week - **Price Trends**: Lithium salt prices were weak. LC2506 and LC2507 decreased by 1.9% week - on - week, and the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. The price of lithium hydroxide was also weak [2][12][13] - **Market Influences**: The new energy vehicle price war and "zero - kilometer used car" news increased inventory concerns, leading to concerns about terminal demand and dragging down prices. The power - end apparent demand remained stable in June, and the energy storage sector had a slight increase [2][13] - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spread strengthened significantly during the decline, which may be due to early position - changing of some funds. Attention should be paid to the spot basis and warrant generation [3][14] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - **Hainan Mining**: Its 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project achieved full - process connectivity [17] - **Salt Lake Co., Ltd.**: Approved a plan to conduct lithium carbonate futures hedging business, with a margin and premium limit of 54 million yuan and a maximum contract value limit of 240 million yuan [17] - **Tianqi Lithium**: A 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project in Jiangsu was publicly announced for environmental assessment, with a total investment of 207.4845 million yuan [18] - **MIIT**: Will strengthen the rectification of "involution - style" competition in the automotive industry and maintain a fair and orderly market environment [18] 3. Monitoring of Key High - frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Continuous Decline in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate continued to decline, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropping from 690 US dollars/ton to 676 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.0% [13] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Significant Strengthening of Monthly Spread - The monthly spread of lithium salt strengthened significantly. LC2507 - 2509 strengthened from 1200C to around 100C [3][14] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all declined to varying degrees [13] 3.4 Terminal: Recovery of New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate in China in April - In April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded [38]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 21st week of 2025 (from May 19th to May 25th), the domestic passenger car retail sales reached 394,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%; new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%. The new energy penetration rate was 55.9%, up 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year and down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, cumulative passenger car retail sales were 8.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; cumulative new energy passenger car retail sales were 4.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%, with a cumulative new energy penetration rate of 49.5% [1][12]. - The demand in the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. Leading brands have consolidated their leading positions through product advantages and market strategies. New brands like Xiaomi have brought new variables, and traditional automakers such as Chang'an and Chery have achieved remarkable new energy sales [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales**: In the 21st week of 2025, domestic passenger car retail sales were 394,000 units (up 10.6% year - on - year), and new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units (up 19.7% year - on - year). The new energy penetration rate was 55.9% [1][12]. - **By Power Type**: In passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles sold 157,000, 17,000, and 220,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 0.8%, 17.7%, and 19.7%, accounting for 39.8%, 4.4%, and 55.9% of passenger cars. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles sold 133,000, 59,000, and 28,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 17.1%, 15.6%, and 46.4%, accounting for 60.5%, 27.0%, and 12.5% [17]. - **By Production Attribute**: In passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 257,000 and 137,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 20.6% and - 4.4%, accounting for 65.3% and 34.8%. In new energy passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 197,000 and 23,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 24.0% and - 8.1%, accounting for 89.6% and 10.4% [17]. 3.2 Key New Energy Automakers' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - **Weekly Sales**: 59,000 units, with BYD brand selling 53,000 units, Denza and Fangchengbao about 3,000 units each, and Yangwang 37 units [23]. - **Business Strategy**: Stopped producing fuel vehicles in March 2022. Since March this year, it released the super e - platform and launched new models. On May 23rd, it announced price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan for 22 models. The 2025 sales target is 5.5 million units. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models are evenly split [23]. 3.2.2 Geely Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 39,000 units, with 25,000 new energy vehicles (4,000 units from Zeekr). The electrification rate is about 64% [26]. - **Business Strategy**: In 2024, it released the "Taizhou Declaration". In 2025, it announced the acquisition of Zeekr. The 2025 sales target is 2.71 million units, with 2 million for Geely, 320,000 for Zeekr, and 390,000 for Lynk & Co. The new energy vehicle sales target is 1.5 million units [26]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - **Weekly Sales**: 14,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 87% [34]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Wuling Hongguang launched an extended - range model, and Baojun launched the "Baojun Xiangjing" with plug - in hybrid and pure - electric options, but pure - electric models dominate sales [34]. 3.2.4 Chang'an Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 58%. Its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan each sold about 4,000 units, and Avatr sold over 2,000 units [39]. 3.2.5 Chery Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 7,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 37%. Its new energy brands iCAR, Chery New Energy, and Zhijie each sold over 1,000 units [47]. 3.2.6 Tesla - **Weekly Sales**: 11,000 units in China, with Model 3 and Model Y selling over 3,000 and over 7,000 units respectively. Sales have strong seasonal fluctuations, with a significant week - on - week increase but little year - on - year growth [53]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Tesla launched multiple promotions, including a "record - breaking discount package" for Model 3 after the Spring Festival and new offers in April [53]. 3.2.7 New - Force Automakers - **Sales**: Li Auto sold about 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and NIO 7,000 units each, XPeng 6,000 units, and Aion 5,000 units. Most of Li Auto's sales are from the L series. Wenjie's sales have increased significantly, with the M8 launched and delivered recently [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts due to high economic uncertainty and inflation risks, leading to a stronger US dollar index [12][17][18]. - The market for various commodities and financial products shows different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others in a state of narrow - range oscillation [3][27][31]. - Different industries have different investment outlooks, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals [14][19][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer impacts of Trump's tariff policies. The US International Trade Court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices. Short - term gold prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to reduce positions [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran in the next few weeks. The Fed is patient about interest rate adjustments due to economic uncertainties. The US dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [15][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 585 billion yuan. Insurance redemptions of bond funds had a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term and collect low - cost chips [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but H20 chip restrictions led to asset impairments and reduced revenue expectations. The Fed is worried about price increases. The US stock market is still in a state of oscillation due to concerns about government debt sustainability and tariff risks [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - From January to April, the total profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The market continued a dull trend of narrow - range oscillation with shrinking trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [25][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is expected that the domestic soybean crushing volume in June will reach 9.805 million tons. Brazil's DDGS and peanut meal are allowed to be imported. Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight decline. It is expected that futures prices will oscillate, and the spot market will remain under pressure [29][31][32]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable. Although power plants are replenishing stocks before summer, the supply is also abundant. The coal price is expected to continue to decline after a short - term stabilization [33]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. The demand for iron ore decreased seasonally, and the price is expected to continue to decline with potential inventory accumulation in June [34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of high - fructose corn syrup increased, while the operating rate of corn starch decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports decreased, and the southern port's domestic corn inventory increased slightly. Corn prices are expected to rise in the future, but currently, the spot market is stagnant. Attention should be paid to feed mills' inventory - building and wheat's policy - based procurement in June [38][39]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. Brazil extended and expanded steel import quota measures. The CMI index showed that the domestic construction machinery market was in a transition from peak to off - peak. Steel prices are expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be cautious in short - term unilateral trading and use a spot hedging strategy [41][43][44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atico Mining signed a 30 - year mining right for the El Roble copper/gold mine. KAZ Minerals' Q1 copper production decreased year - on - year. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar index may suppress copper prices. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47][49]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou started to resume production. The spot and long - term supply of alumina are insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased on May 28th. The decline in nickel prices may be related to rumors of increased Indonesian nickel ore quotas, concerns about cost reduction due to electricity price reforms, and weakening demand in the new energy vehicle market. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and bottom - fishing should be done with a light position [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Thailand stopped investment incentives for the photovoltaic industry. Polysilicon cash is in serious loss, and the inventory of some downstream silicon wafer factories is insufficient. The impact of leading enterprises' production cuts on the fundamentals is significant. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices and gradually take profits on positive spreads [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A North China organic silicon monomer enterprise plans to conduct maintenance. Supply pressure is increasing, while demand has no obvious improvement. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and pay attention to large enterprises' cash - flow risks [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - SQM withdrew from the lithium ore exploration project in Western Australia. The current dominant logic is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited, and it is recommended to partially take profits or roll over previous short positions [60][61][61]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste batteries stabilized. The supply of lead is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, and demand is weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and consider long - term positive spreads [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of ether - post C4 in Shandong was stable. The supply of liquefied petroleum gas decreased due to refinery maintenance. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [65][66][67]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ will use 2025 oil production as the 2027 production benchmark. The oil price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the short term [68][69][70]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased. The supply is stable, and demand is good. The alumina market's impact on caustic soda is weakening, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [71]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable. The futures market was in a weak - range operation. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [72][75]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The futures market oscillated downward. It is expected that the PVC futures will oscillate [76]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in East China ports increased. The price of styrene decreased. It is recommended to be cautious about the far - month trend of pure benzene and styrene [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was stable, and the market transaction was average. The industry has high production, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to supply changes [80][81]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was in a low - level oscillation. The supply is expected to be stable, and demand is weak. Short - term maintenance may support the price, but it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Jiangsu was stable. The futures and spot markets were weak. It is expected that the glass futures will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [83][84]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Vietnam may impose tariffs on e - commerce imports. The container freight rate index was affected by sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for the egg industry [5] Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the egg market featured gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. The trading focus will shift towards demand. After short - term operations based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Recent Situation: Tortuous Decline - In H1 2025, the egg market showed a trend of gradually released supply, limited demand recovery, and a tortuous decline in prices. From January to May, the monthly average price in the main production areas dropped from 4.22 yuan/jin to around 3.30 yuan/jin. The price decline was driven by a high inventory base, and holiday - related demand fluctuations affected the spot and futures markets. Recently, the egg futures market has been weak [8] Shift of Trading Focus - The bearish view on the June and July egg contracts is due to the surplus supply, with a high inventory base and a slow - paced culling process in the breeding sector. As of April 2025, the in - production laying hen inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The trading focus will gradually shift to demand. Egg prices have typical seasonal characteristics, usually entering a decline in June and starting to rebound in July, reaching a high in September and slightly falling after the National Day holiday [11][17] Investment Advice - The egg breeding cycle is short. In the short - to - medium term, the market is constrained by high in - production inventory and lackluster demand, so the spot price will remain weak. The view that the second quarter has the greatest supply surplus pressure this year has been verified. In the third quarter, there are more trading factors to consider. After short - selling based on supply surplus, there will be opportunities in peak - season contracts. It is recommended to shift from near - far month reverse spreads and short positions in near - month contracts to long positions in peak - season contracts and wait patiently for low - price entry opportunities [25][26]