Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polysilicon industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of polysilicon has significantly factored in the future weakening of its fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher-than-expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. Before the large-scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27] Summary by Directory 1. Event Overview - This week, polysilicon futures dropped significantly. The main PS2506 contract fell 10%, closing at 37,615 yuan/ton, hitting a record low since listing. PS2507 and PS2511 closed at 36,180 and 35,830 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 11.8% and 10.9%. The positive spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2506 - PS2511 first widened significantly, with the monthly spreads reaching a maximum of 1,915 yuan/ton and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively, and then quickly narrowed to 1,435 yuan/ton and 1,785 yuan/ton [2][9] 2. Reasons for the Decline: Weak Fundamentals - Since mid - April, the photovoltaic rush - installation wave has gradually subsided, and the prices of downstream components, cells, and wafers have started to decline from their highs. The upstream and downstream inventories in the polysilicon segment are high. From March to April, wafer manufacturers mainly digested their existing raw material inventories and had low procurement enthusiasm. After the rush - installation wave, polysilicon prices began to fall [10] - In April, the polysilicon production schedule is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and in May, it is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons. In May, the wafer production schedule is expected to be over 60GW, and polysilicon is expected to continue to reduce inventory by 10,000 tons. However, it is generally expected that the Tongwei bases in Sichuan and Yunnan will resume production during the wet season. From June to November, the monthly polysilicon production schedule is expected to increase to over 130,000 tons, while the wafer production schedule will decline after June, and polysilicon may accumulate 20,000 - 30,000 tons of inventory per month [3][13] 3. How to Value the Futures: Discount Delivery or Premium Delivery? - The production of delivery goods is different from spot production. Currently, silicon material manufacturers use their spot production lines for regular business with downstream customers, and produce delivery goods through newly established production lines (with a preparation time of about 1 month), which is expected to increase the production cost by 1,000 - 2,000 yuan/ton. This means that delivery goods have a natural premium over spot N - type dense materials [4][22] - Although the delivery goods of polysilicon have a premium in quality and price for downstream wafer manufacturers, and wafer manufacturers need a discount to accept warehouse receipts, the long - side includes not only wafer manufacturers but also futures - cash merchants. When the monthly spread is appropriate, futures - cash merchants can complete the initial inventory build - up by taking delivery through positive spreads on the futures market [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The current futures price has significantly factored in the future weakening of polysilicon fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher - than - expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. As of April 18, there are only 10 lots (30 tons) of polysilicon warehouse receipts. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Based on the current absolute futures price, it is difficult for new warehouse receipts to be generated for contracts after 07. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27]

日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 日本贸易让步：增加美大豆与大米进口 关税给实体经济带来的滞胀风险正逐步显现，市场风险偏好低 迷，美股期货小幅低开。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 俄乌互指对方未遵守复活节临时停火提议 俄乌双方复活节停火并没有得到实施，美伊谈判矛盾延续，全 球地缘风险继续处于高位，美元指数走弱。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 国常会：要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展 俄乌互指对方未遵守复活节临时停火提议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-21 能源化工（原油） 美国石油钻井总数回升 上一周油价修复反弹。 晨 报 TS 表现持续弱于长端品种，现券本身表现就弱是最核心的原因。 做陡曲线的赔率已经足够，但需要等待右侧信号。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚 4 月 1 日至 20 日棕榈油出口量增长 11.9% 4 月 1-20 日马棕出口增加。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量回落到 240.12 万吨 本周成材基本面虽有所改善，但钢价延续弱势震荡，外需走弱 的风险依然是市场最大的压制，冷轧的累库也印证了出口的走 弱。 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金融工程组 2025年04月20日 王冬黎 金融工程首席分析师（国债期货） 从业资格号： F3032817 投资咨询号： Z0014348 Email: dongli.wang@orientfutures.com 徐凡 金融工程分析师(基本面量化&FOF) 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号：Z0022032 Email: xu.fan@orientfutures.com 李晓辉 金融工程首席分析师（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 Email: Xiaohui.li01@orientfutures.com 常海晴 金融工程分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 股指期货量化策略跟踪 2 主要内容 ★股指期货行情简评： 市场波动下降，呈现"大强小弱"走势。分行业看，银行和非银金融贡献了沪深300指数和上证50指数的主要涨幅，国防军工和医药生物贡献了中证500指数的主要跌幅， 电子和国防军工贡献了中证1000指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - **Price situation**: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - **Supply situation**: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - **Warehouse receipt situation**: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - **Production adjustment plan**: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - **Mining license transfer**: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - **Company performance**: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - **Exchange notice**: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]

[★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金涨 2.8%至 3327 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.32%，通胀 预期降至 2.24%，实际利率降至 2.08%，美元指数跌 0.87%至 99.2， 标普 500 指数跌 1.5%，人民币小跌，内外价差窄幅波动。 国际金价再度攀升创新高，国内资金通过多种途径做多黄金，沪 金期货、黄金 ETF 均明显吸引了资金流入，海外黄金 ETF 继续 增加，但 COMEX 黄金期货库存出现拐点，期货投机净多仓继续 回落。关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心逻辑，美国陆续与日本、 欧盟等国展开谈判，但进展较为缓慢，与中国的摩擦没有继续升 级，但双方还没有开始谈判，且即便是谈判也无法回到对等关税 加征前的状态，市场继续围绕去美元化的中长期逻辑展开交易。 经济数据显示美国居民在关税落地前增加消费，3 月美国零售销 售环比增长 1.4%，是 2023 年 1 月以来最大环比增速，同比增长 4.6%，汽车消费增长 5.3%是主要增长来源，在 13 个类别中有 11 个出现增长，关税明显施压消费者信心以及后续的消费能力，经 济下行风险增加。 周度报告-黄金 关税继续扰 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 检修增加矿石扰动， 氧化铝价格暂获支撑 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 氧化铝：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 20 日 [Table_Summary] ★检修增加矿石扰动，氧化铝价格暂获支撑 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 730 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政策持续 深化，部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处停产状 态，国内矿山整体上并没有明显增量。下一轮国内矿石议价将大 概率继续下调，但下方空间可能有限。进口方面，几内亚矿（45/3） 的成交价格进一步回落至 86 美元/干吨。GIC 方面表示外商方面 确有经济纠纷，但与中方并无关系，GIC 方面表示问题会很快得 到解决，目前其矿山仍在维持正常开采，其发运方面有一座码头 被限制发运，但另一码头仍可维持正常作业。到货方面，期内新 到矿石 460.7 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 352.3 万吨，澳大利亚 资源 105.6 万吨。几内 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 关税压力延续，美元维持震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好微升，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.32%。美元指数跌 0.87%至 99.23，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币跌 0.26%，欧元涨 0.95%，英镑涨 1.56%，日 元涨 0.95%，瑞郎跌 0.25%，比索、泰铢涨 3%，新西兰元、澳 元、兰特、雷亚尔涨超 1%，加元、林吉特收涨，韩元、卢比收 跌。金价涨 2.8%至 3327 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 29.7，现货 商品指数收跌，布油涨 3.5%至 68 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 关税问题仍然是市场关注重点，日本、欧元区相继与美国展开 谈判，尚未取得实质性进展，中国与美国尚未展开谈判，而实 际贸易层面已经开始体现出巨额关税的影响，高频数据显示中 美贸易量明显下降，企业观望态度增加，关税的影响和进展是 股市核心影响因素。美联储主席鲍威尔讲话表明短期美联储并 没有救市的意愿，关税给通胀带来上行风险，美联储短期内降 息可能性下降。同时特朗普对美联储的口头干预增加，施压 ...

周度报告——股指期货 股市缩量轮动，等待流动性回归 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a关ry]税战不确定性较大，A 股快速缩量 ★下周观点：等待流动性回归 本周全球股市逐渐平淡，中国市场也经历了明显分化。一方面 是 A 股在国家队等资金托举下，连续上涨，但另一方面港股中 概股却经历持续回调。本周 A 股市场的典型特点在于监管部门 禁卖令导致的卖盘匮乏，市场流动性大幅收缩。4 月 18 日全 A 成交额已经跌破 1 万亿元。因而市场虽然快速轮动，依然在寻 求热点题材的突破，但最终未能形成一致性预期。后续监管放 松与流动性回归应该是阶段性主题。但本周国常会等会议依然 透露出稳预期、稳股市政策诉求。那么节奏将变得更难把握。 我们认为在贸易战依然不确定较大的阶段，叠加上市公司年报 季到来，沪深 300、上证 50 等股指将具有相对优势。 ★风险提示： 美国对华贸易战，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | | | 王培丞 | | 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 日 | 04 月 | ...

周度报告-国债期货 上涨行情未结束，关注政策预期变化 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货高位震荡，长端强于短端 国 债 期 货 本周（04.14-04.20）国债期货高位震荡，长端强于短端。周一， 受 3 月金融数据超预期等因素影响，国债期货低开，午后股市 走软，长端国债品种小幅拉升。周二，消息面相对平静，资金 面虽然均衡但资金利率并未进一步下行，国债期货窄幅震荡、 小幅走弱。周三，3 月经济数据普遍超市场预期，利空落地后国 债期货小幅拉升；午间市场担忧供给压力短暂调整，午后资金 面均衡偏松，国债期货小幅上涨。周四，市场较为担忧供给压 力及地产政策发力，国债期货震荡下跌。周五，市场预期下周 一 LPR 会下调，长端品种震荡走强，但短端品种依旧偏弱运 行。截至 4 月 18 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期 货主连合约结算价分别为 102.436、106.225、109.000 和 119.720 元，分别较上周末变动-0.220、-0.185、+0.015 和+0.060 元。 ★上涨行情未结束，关注政策预期变化 双降预期未被证伪之前，上涨行情没有结束，但政策预期变化 较快，市场走强 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储威廉姆斯认为暂无迫切必要调整货币 政策 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-18 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2455 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 宽货币预期被证伪之前，国债上涨的行情不会结束。可适度关 注调整后的买入机会。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美联储威廉姆斯认为暂无迫切必要调整货币政策 美国三大股指盘中震荡涨跌不一，反弹乏力，经济数据走弱预 计仍将压制美股表现。 综 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 合 特朗普批评鲍威尔玩弄政治 放话称总统有权解职美联储主席 晨 报 特朗普和鲍威尔之间的矛盾白热化，特朗普对于鲍威尔迟迟不 降息明显不满，这可能会演变成更加剧烈的冲突，市场风险偏 好走低。 农产品（生猪） 牧原股份官宣将赴港上市 现货价格延续震荡走势，但始终未形成快速下跌趋势，市场出 栏不及预期。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 一季度中国钢筋产量 4810.7 万吨，同比降 2.9% 本周钢联五大品种去库加速，螺纹热卷库存去化均尚可，表需 有较为明显回升。但由于 5 月份之后需求端的隐患，市场对短期 需求的韧性关注度下降，情绪仍偏谨慎。 有色金属（工业硅） ...