证券研究报告 固收 香港发布固定收益及货币市场路线 图，利好点心债 2025 年 9 月 29 日│中国内地 信用周报 报告核心观点：香港发布固定收益及货币市场路线图，利好点心债 9 月 25 日，香港证监会联合香港金管局发布香港《固定收益及货币市场发 展路线图》，点心债市场的发行与投资有望持续受到监管支持。我们梳理了 今年首次发行点心债的中资主体，截至 9 月 22 日，点心债首次发债规模合 计为 966.69 亿元，约占到总发债规模的 20%，以产业债、3 年期为主，ESG 点心债发行额占比近 20%。新增首发点心债票息以 1-3%居多，中短端平均 票息可达 5%以上。境内外对比来看，同主体/同集团系主体境外债-境内债 的票息溢价可达 300BP 以上，而投资级主体点心债与境内债溢价较窄。政 策支持下点心债发行活跃度或将提升，关注 1-3 年新增供给的配置机会。 市场回顾：债基卖出中长端信用债，信用债收益率全面上行 上周债市情绪持续偏弱，信用债收益率全面上行，二永债补跌更加明显。 2025 年 9 月 19 日至 9 月 26 日，债基赎回费新规对债市持续利空，基金整 周卖出 1-5Y 信用债 110 亿 ...

今日早参 2025 年 9 月 29 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：日本自民党总裁选举前瞻及影响 首相石破茂宣布辞职后，日本自民党于 9 月 22 日启动总裁选举，投票将于 10 月 4 日进行。目前已有五位国会议员宣布参选，其中小泉进次郎和高市早 苗的支持率相对领先。考虑到自民党执政联盟已失去参众两院的多数席位、 且国内对财政刺激的呼声较大，新一任首相的政治与经济主张可能对日本的 政经形势产生深远影响。本文将探讨此次自民党总裁选举的可能结果、候选 人的政策主张以及选举对日本市场的潜在影响。 风险提示：政治选举期可能引发日本市场大幅波动；执政联盟不稳的风险； 选举结果超市场预期的风险。 研报发布日期：2025-09-28 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：低基数推动 8 月工企利润同比回升 8 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Views - The cost-effectiveness of bank allocations has improved, with a significant number of quality banks offering dividend yields exceeding 5% for 2025 [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in market allocation demand in Q4, driven by calendar effects and a potential shift towards safer investments [5][10] - Core business profitability is improving under supportive policies, with a narrowing decline in net interest income for listed banks [6][10] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The banking sector is rated as "Buy" for several key banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.88 HKD, Chengdu Bank at 23.33 CNY, and Shanghai Bank at 12.02 CNY [4] Market Trends - The banking index has experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 15% since July, with the PB ratio falling to 0.62x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5][11] - The report highlights that 37 A-share banks have fallen below their six-month moving average, with 14 below their annual moving average, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [5] Performance Outlook - The report anticipates that insurance capital, industrial capital, and foreign investment will become significant incremental allocation sources for the banking sector [7] - The report notes that the banking sector's dividend payout capabilities are stable, making them attractive to long-term investors [7] Economic Indicators - The report discusses the impact of interest rate increases on bank performance, suggesting that banks may buffer non-interest income pressures through realized gains [8][10] - It emphasizes that if the economy enters an upward cycle, rising interest rates could positively impact net interest income and overall bank profitability [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors [6]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in prosperity due to the implementation of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for 2025-2026, which aims to enhance high-end supply and optimize capacity in various sub-sectors [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of controlling new capacity for key products such as refining, ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol, which is anticipated to improve the supply structure [2]. - The focus on fertilizer production stability and the development of new types of fertilizers is expected to continue, with recommendations for companies in this sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new materials and emerging technologies in the chemical industry, driven by policy support for high-end supply and digital transformation [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Growth Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, focusing on high-end supply and project management [1]. - The plan includes measures to enhance supply optimization and support the development of high-end chemical materials in electronics, new energy, and medical equipment [1]. Section 2: Capacity Control and Supply Optimization - The plan specifies strict control over new refining capacity and reasonable planning for the addition of ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol capacities, supporting the replacement and upgrading of old facilities [2]. - In 2024, China's refining, PX, and methanol capacities are projected to decrease by 1%, remain unchanged, and increase by 2% respectively, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity growth [2]. Section 3: Fertilizer Production Stability - The plan aims to optimize the production management of key fertilizer companies and ensure stable raw material supply through long-term contracts [3]. - The report notes that the prices of some upstream raw materials have risen significantly, which may impact fertilizer production [3]. Section 4: Development of New Materials and Technologies - The report anticipates accelerated development of high-end chemical materials and emerging technologies, including carbon capture and green ammonia applications [4]. - It encourages the development of new materials in sectors such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical devices, with a focus on innovation and domestic substitution [4]. Section 5: Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the outlined policies, including: - **Buy**: Yun Tianhua, Dongcai Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [7]. - **Overweight**: Hengli Petrochemical, Huayi Group, Tongkun Co., Guangwei Composite, Xinfeng Group, and Wanwei High-tech [7].

量价因子有所回暖，1000 指增强势 2025 年 9 月 28 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 证券研究报告 本月以来换手率因子多空收益领跑 从因子多空组合收益的平均水平来看，本月以来换手率因子多空收益领跑， 在中证 1000 和全 A 股股票池中表现尤为突出；预期净利润增速因子次之， 整体呈现较可观的多空收益。盈利和成长因子同样呈现正向的平均多空收 益，但较前者有较大差距。其余因子均呈现负向的平均多空收益，其中反转、 估值和小市值因子多空收益较为落后。 本月以来中证 1000 指增基金超额收益保持领先 我们重点跟踪以沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和中证 A500 指数为基准 的量化指数增强基金。基于公募指增基金的复权净值曲线表现来看，本月以 来各类指增基金超额收益呈现分化。从中位数层面来看，中证 1000 指增基 金表现保持领先，呈现较明显的正超额；其余指增基金的超额收益中位数均 呈现负值，整体表现平淡。从今年以来的整体表现来看，中证 1000 指增基 金超额领先，中证 A500 指增基金次之。 风险提示：量化基金的业绩受到多种因素影响，包括环境、政策、基金管理 人变化等，过去业绩好的基金不代表 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Multi-Dimensional Timing Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, capital, and technical indicators. Valuation and sentiment dimensions adopt a mean-reversion logic, while capital and technical dimensions use trend-following logic. The model combines these dimensions to provide a comprehensive view of market trends [2][9][15]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses the Wind All A Index as a proxy for the A-share market. 2. Each dimension generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, or bearish views. 3. Valuation indicators include equity risk premium (ERP). 4. Sentiment indicators include option put-call ratio, implied volatility, and futures member position ratio. 5. Capital indicators include financing purchase amount. 6. Technical indicators include Bollinger Bands and the difference in the proportion of individual stock trading volume [11][15]. 7. The final multi-dimensional score is calculated as the sum of the scores from the four dimensions, determining the overall market view [9][15]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market trends and provides actionable insights for timing decisions [9]. - **Model Name**: Style Timing Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates timing for dividend and size styles using trend-based indicators and crowding metrics [3][17][22]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Style Timing**: - The model uses three indicators: relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index vs. CSI All Index, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo transaction volume. - Each indicator generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, or bearish views. - The final score is the sum of the three indicators, determining the overall view on dividend style [17][21]. 2. **Size Style Timing**: - The model uses the crowding degree of small-cap and large-cap styles, calculated based on momentum difference and trading volume ratio between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and CSI 300 Index. - Crowding degree is determined by averaging the top three results of six different window lengths for small-cap and large-cap styles. - High crowding is triggered when small-cap crowding exceeds 90% or large-cap crowding falls below 10%. - In high crowding zones, a small parameter double moving average model is used to capture short-term reversals. In low crowding zones, a large parameter double moving average model is used to follow medium- to long-term trends [22][24][26]. **Model Evaluation**: The model provides effective timing signals for style rotation, especially in different market conditions [22][24]. - **Model Name**: Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry index data, focusing on price-volume and valuation characteristics. It employs a dual-objective genetic programming approach to enhance factor diversity and reduce overfitting [4][29][32]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses 32 CITIC industry indices as underlying assets. 2. Factors are updated quarterly, and the model rebalances weekly. 3. The dual-objective genetic programming approach evaluates factors using |IC| and NDCG@5 metrics to assess monotonicity and performance of long positions. 4. Factors are combined using a greedy strategy and variance inflation factor to reduce collinearity. 5. The highest-weight factor is constructed as follows: - Perform cross-sectional regression of standardized monthly trading volume against the rolling 4-year percentile of price-to-book ratio (P/B). Take residuals as variable A. - Sum the smallest 9 values of variable A over the past 15 trading days to obtain variable B. - Standardize variable B using z-score, reverse values greater than 2.5, and sum the standardized values over the past 15 trading days [29][33][37]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry rotation factors with strong monotonicity and performance, while reducing overfitting risks [29][33]. - **Model Name**: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro factor risk parity framework, emphasizing risk diversification across underlying macro risk sources rather than asset classes. It actively allocates based on macro expectation momentum [5][38][41]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macro Quadrant Division and Asset Selection**: Divide growth and inflation dimensions into four quadrants based on whether they exceed or fall short of expectations. Determine suitable assets for each quadrant using quantitative and qualitative methods. 2. **Quadrant Portfolio Construction and Risk Measurement**: Construct sub-portfolios with equal weights for assets within each quadrant, focusing on downside risk. 3. **Risk Budgeting Model for Quadrant Weights**: Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on "quadrant views" derived from macro expectation momentum indicators, which consider buy-side expectation momentum and sell-side expectation deviation momentum [38][41]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances macro risks and enhances portfolio performance through active allocation [38][41]. --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Multi-Dimensional Timing Model**: - Annualized Return: 25.23% - Maximum Drawdown: -28.46% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.17 - Calmar Ratio: 0.89 - Year-to-Date (YTD): 40.98% - Last Week's Return: 0.15% [14] - **Style Timing Model**: - **Dividend Style Timing**: - Annualized Return: 16.04% - Maximum Drawdown: -25.52% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.87 - Calmar Ratio: 0.63 - YTD: 21.75% - Last Week's Return: 0.23% [20] - **Size Style Timing**: - Annualized Return: 26.25% - Maximum Drawdown: -30.86% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.09 - Calmar Ratio: 0.85 - YTD: 65.89% - Last Week's Return: 1.07% [27] - **Industry Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 32.60% - Annualized Volatility: 17.95% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.82 - Maximum Drawdown: -19.63% - Calmar Ratio: 1.66 - Last Week's Return: 0.27% - YTD: 36.44% [32] - **China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 11.53% - Annualized Volatility: 6.16% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.87 - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Calmar Ratio: 1.83 - Last Week's Return: 0.66% - YTD: 9.02% [42]

证券研究报告 近一周有 4 只 ETF 产品新启动认购，包括跟踪恒生生物科技、中证 800 自 由现金流、中证卫星产业和上证 580 指数的 ETF。近一周有 7 只 ETF 新成 立，募集总规模 45.77 亿元，其中 1 只跟踪恒生科技指数的 ETF1 日内结募， 募集规模超过 12 亿元，国企红利 ETF 和红利低波 ETF 募集规模小于投资 港股的 ETF。近一周有 5 只 ETF 新申报，其中包括光伏、机器人、芯片设 计主题的 3 只 ETF。 绝对收益 ETF 模拟组合：今年以来上涨 7.47% 金价突破前高，黄金 ETF 获资金流入 华泰研究 林晓明 研究员 2025 年 9 月 28 日│中国内地 ETF 点评 ETF 市场观察：14 只科创债 ETF 上市，黄金 ETF 获资金流入 债券 ETF 方面，2025 年 9 月 24 日，第二批共 14 只科创债 ETF 上市，上 市首日资金净流入超 600 亿元，首日成交额约 775 亿元，当日规模总额超 1000 亿元，其中 5 只 ETF 首日规模超百亿。商品 ETF 方面，海外 SPDR 黄金 ETF 和 iShares 黄金 ETF 的 ...

证券研究报告 工业/公用环保 首提降碳目标，展现大国担当 华泰研究 2025 年 9 月 26 日│中国内地 动态点评 电力设备与新能源 增持 (维持) 公用事业 增持 (维持) 王嵩 联系人 alanwang@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 李科毅* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125030018 likeyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 刘俊 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110003 SFC No. AVM464 边文姣 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110004 SFC No. BSJ399 苗雨菲 研究员 miaoyufei@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 SFC No. BTM578 戚腾元 研究员 qitengyuan@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 马梦辰，CFA 研究员 SAC No. S0570524100001 SFC No. BUM666 徐嘉欣* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070136 xujiaxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 65.4 [5][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's recent product launch includes the Xiaomi 17 series smartphones, Pad 8, smart home appliances, routers, and a customized service for its automotive line, indicating a strong focus on innovation and ecosystem development [1][2]. - The company emphasizes its ongoing investment in hard technology, particularly in self-developed chips and smart vehicles, which are expected to support the development of a comprehensive "people-vehicle-home" ecosystem [1][4]. Summary by Sections Mobile Phones - The Xiaomi 17 series features competitive pricing and significant improvements in battery life, with the standard version priced at HKD 4,499 and the Pro version at HKD 4,999, which is a reduction of HKD 300 from the previous model [2]. - The new series utilizes Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Elite chip, manufactured with TSMC's 3nm process, and boasts a battery life improvement of 109% for the standard model compared to the iPhone 17 [2]. Automotive - Xiaomi introduced a customization service for its automotive line, allowing for personalized options for the SU7 Ultra and YU7 Max models, which is expected to attract high-end users and enhance brand prestige [3]. - The gross margin for Xiaomi's automotive and AI innovation business reached 26.4% in Q2 2025, an increase of 11 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Annual Presentation - Founder Lei Jun highlighted the company's advancements in self-developed chips and electric vehicles since 2021, showcasing the successful launch of the Xuanjie SoC chip and the SU7 Ultra model, which has achieved notable performance metrics [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects Xiaomi's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 443.1 billion, RMB 526.3 billion, and RMB 671.2 billion respectively, maintaining a target price of HKD 65.4 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [5][42].

Group 1: Petrochemical Industry - The PTA industry in China is showing signs of a turning point as the expansion cycle ends, with production capacity increasing by 80% since 2020 and maintaining a healthy operating rate due to growing demand in textiles and consumer goods [2] - The industry has faced low profitability for 13 years, primarily due to the promotion of new technologies leading to increased competition since 2018 [2] - By 2025, the CR5 of the PTA industry in China is expected to reach 70%, with leading companies having a high proportion of new technology capacity, and no new capacity expected to be added in 2026-2027, indicating potential for industry optimization [2] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has ceased operations due to an accident, which is projected to reduce copper output by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [3] - Additionally, the Kamoa-Kakula mine's shutdown may also impact copper production in 2026, leading to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance for copper in Q4 2025 and 2026 [3] - As a result, copper prices are expected to strengthen [3] Group 3: Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has issued a plan for stable growth in the construction materials industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the resolution of structural contradictions rather than specific growth targets [3] - The plan includes detailed measures for capacity regulation and management across different sub-industries, with increasing demands for digitalization and greening in the industry [3] - The report remains optimistic about breakthroughs in the cement industry and recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement A, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement A [3] Group 4: Key Companies - Micron Technology reported FY25Q4 revenue of $11.3 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, with adjusted net profit of $3.47 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.03 [4] - The company anticipates FY26Q1 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.5%-52.5% [4] - Despite the positive earnings report, concerns about increased competition in HBM technology may pressure Micron's market position [4] Group 5: Other Companies - Nine Dragons Paper achieved FY2025 revenue of 63.24 billion yuan, a 6.3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 1.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 135.4% increase due to its integrated pulp and paper layout [5] - The company is expected to continue solidifying its cost advantages as it advances its integrated pulp and paper strategy [5] - Wanhua Chemical anticipates a net profit of 340-420 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a 70%-110% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for PVA optical films and automotive-grade PVB films [5]