证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 农林牧渔 大豆压榨上调，玉米出口上调 ——4 月 USDA 供需报告分析 投资要点 ❑ 持续上调全球玉米产量，库销比下调支撑价格 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量上调 了 93 万吨，至 9.2 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 2.2%。其中，其中巴西，阿根廷未 发生变化，欧盟调增 131 万吨，肯尼亚调减 20 万吨。贸易方面，美国玉米出口量 上调 300 万吨至 6500 万吨，这一调整高于市场预期，主要是受益于价格优势，尤 其是在巴西和乌克兰供应受限的背景下，美国玉米出口前景改善。然而，报告也 指出，未来几个月美国玉米出口需保持较高水平才能实现目标，这为市场带来一 定不确定性。最终，全球（除中国外）2024/25 年度玉米结转期末库存下调 128 万 吨至 8647 万吨，同比减少 16.1%；库销比下调 0.2pct 至 9.3%。 ❑ G3 主产区产量未做调整，压榨量同时上调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）新季大豆产量下调 18 万 吨，至 4.0 亿吨，同比上一年度增加 6.5%。本次报告维 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is a leader in automotive water pumps, with IDC liquid cooling and humanoid robot businesses expected to drive a second growth curve, leveraging technology reuse and customer collaboration to potentially exceed performance expectations [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 56 billion, 68 billion, and 80 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 18% respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 19% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.5 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 34%, 21%, and 22%, leading to a CAGR of 25% [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 19X, 16X, and 13X [5] Market Position and Comparisons - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies such as Yinlun, Shuguang, and Shenling is 35X for 2026E, while the company's current P/E is only 16X, indicating significant upside potential [3] - The company has a 25% market share in the domestic automotive water pump market and a 20% share in the turbocharger casing market, establishing it as a leader in these segments [10] Growth Catalysts - Future catalysts include orders for liquid cooling pumps, robot orders, and quarterly earnings growth [4] - The liquid cooling server market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, with the company positioned to capture a share of this emerging market [10] - The company has entered the humanoid robot sector, with potential for growth similar to that of a comparable company, Sanhua Intelligent Control [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in performance from 2025 onwards, following a challenging 2024 due to high R&D expenses and other costs [1][4] - The company's products are well-positioned in the satellite internet market, with a focus on new customer acquisition and project development [1][2] - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, which is expected to solidify its industry position and enhance its product offerings [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 303.38 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04%, but net profit decreased by 75.37% to 17.85 million yuan [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 440.52 million yuan, 651.86 million yuan, and 910.85 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 108.84 million yuan, 219.69 million yuan, and 362.18 million yuan [4][6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 76.23%, with expectations for improvement in subsequent years [6] Product Development - The company has a strong focus on product development, with 20 new product types defined in 2024, including five applicable to satellite communication systems [3] - The revenue from the RF transceiver and high-precision ADC/DAC chip segment was approximately 101 million yuan, showing a 2% increase year-on-year [2] - The power management chip segment achieved revenue of 123 million yuan, reflecting a 14.6% year-on-year growth [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 2）企业端，3 月企（事）业单位贷款增加 28400 亿元，同比多增 5000 亿元，其 中，短期贷款增加 14400 亿元，同比多增 4600 亿元，是核心支撑项，中长期贷 款增加 15800 亿元，同比少增 200 亿元，降幅显著收窄，票据融资减少 1986 亿 元，同比少减 514 亿元。 对于后续货币政策，二季度财政支出节奏加快，预计存在降准落地的"窗口期"。此 外若中美博弈升级，央行或将首要目标从国际收支与金融稳定切换至稳增长和促进物 价合理回升，届时有望通过降准降息对冲外部冲击，维持流动性宽松以支持内需。全 年看，预计 2025 年货币政策维持宽松基调，与财政政策、产业政策形成政策合力， 预计全年降准幅度约 100BP，降息约 30BP。 ❑ 3 月信贷新增 3.64 万亿元，企业贷款是核心拉动 3 月人民币贷款新增 36400 亿元（高于市场预期和我们的预期），同比多增 5500 亿元，存量同比增速 7.4%，前值 7.3%。信贷结构中，居民、企业、非银贷款均 同比多增，其中企业贷款是核心拉动项。 短期贷款方面，3 月企业短期贷款同比多增，增幅为 2 ...

重要推荐 重要观点 精品报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 14 日 浙商早知道 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟/史凡可】民士达（833394）公司点评：一季度开门红，进口替代迎来机遇期——20250412 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】英派斯（002899）公司深度：进军 AI 眼镜行业，应用场景优 势明显——20250410 1、传媒互联网-英派斯（002899） http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】英派斯（002899）公司深度：进军 AI 眼镜行业，应用场景优势明显——20250410 【浙商汽车 刘巍】凌云股份（600480）公司深度：多细分赛道龙头主业稳健向上，布局传感器广阔赛道——20250410 【浙商医药 孙建/郭双喜/盖文化】科伦博泰生物-B（06990）公司深度：国际化 ADC ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's ICT business revenue has significantly increased, with a total revenue of 79.49 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.64% [8] - The company has successfully delivered major projects in the rail transit sector, including Guangzhou Metro Line 11 and Shenzhen Metro Line 13, and has signed new orders in over ten cities [1] - The AI model technology has advanced, with the "Zhixing Traffic Model" reaching version 2.0, enhancing traffic management and operational efficiency [3] - Operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 180 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 117.57% [4] - The company expects continued revenue growth in 2025, driven by new orders in the intelligent transportation business and a contract asset balance of 2.012 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -115 million yuan, but the adjusted net profit (excluding non-recurring items) was 24 million yuan, indicating a turnaround [8][9] - The gross profit margin for industry solutions improved to 19.6%, and overall operating expenses decreased by 1.87% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 88.96 billion, 95.36 billion, and 102.77 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.35 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan respectively [9]

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：宏观上美国关税扰动，但产业层面继续去库 行业评级：看好 2025 年 04 月 13 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 | 【浙商金属】钢铁周度数据（2025年4月13日） | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 | 格 | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | 上证指数 | 3,238 | -3.1% | -3.4% | | | | 沪深300 | 3,751 | -2.9% | -4.7% | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | 2,109 | -6.3% | 0.3% | | | SW普钢指数 | 块 | 2,122 | -5.9% | 1.7% | SW特钢指数 | 3,761 | -7.4% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in a weak economic environment, with a significant increase in dividend payout [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 29.38 billion yuan, 31.93 billion yuan, and 34.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9.2%, 8.7%, and 7.6% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products was 13.76 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 10.0%, 8.6%, and 16.8% [2] - Online sales grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% in 2024, while offline sales increased by 8.9% [2] - Revenue from different regions showed varied growth, with the southern region achieving a 12.9% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 37.0% in 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 23.6%, up 0.7 percentage points [4] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 75% in 2024, reflecting a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year [4] Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.25 yuan in 2025, 1.38 yuan in 2026, and 1.51 yuan in 2027 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36.85 in 2024 to 27.89 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：经济景气度连续两周回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。由于模型 使用数据的更新频率不同，随着模型数据持续更新，数据质量提升，对前两周 GDP 测 算进行相应修订。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 12 日）为 5.6%，较上周修订值 5.7%略有放 缓，或表征一季度经济开门红脉冲后，经济增长景气有所回摆。我们认为，随着美国 加征关税的冲击，GDP 周频景气指数或有所承压，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，服务业、工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with steady profit growth and improved operating cash flow. The total revenue for the year was 2.146 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million, an increase of 4.88%. The operating cash flow reached 264 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 419.77% [1][12] Business Performance - The smart procurement business segment generated revenue of 948 million, down 7.17% year-on-year, while the procurement operation business achieved revenue of 388 million, up 6.33% year-on-year. The overall gross margin remained stable at 61.20% [1] - The company secured multiple large projects, including the procurement bidding platform for Dongfeng Motor Corporation and the electronic procurement platform upgrade for China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [2] - The company is actively integrating AI technology into its operations, launching the "Trading Brain" project, which is the first AI model innovation in the public resource trading sector [2][3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.291 billion, 2.520 billion, and 2.804 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 237 million, 281 million, and 348 million. The expected EPS for these years is 0.72, 0.85, and 1.05, with a PE ratio of 42.33 for 2025 [10][12]