证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 3 月 PMI：装备制造业挑大梁，新动能行业持续活跃 2025 年 3 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 3 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得 50.5%，环比回升 0.3 个百分点，产需 两端扩张加快，但量价阶段性背离，3 月价格指数边际回落。分指标来看，生 产指数和新订单指数分别为 52.6%和 51.8%，比上月上升 0.1 和 0.7 个百分 点。分行业来看，新动能行业表现较为突出，装备制造业、高技术制造业和消 费品景气水平连续两个月回升，对应行业PMI分别为52.0%、52.3%和50.0%， 比上月上升 1.2、1.4 和 0.1 个百分点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 49.3%，比上月下 降 0.5 个百分点。 大类资产方面，考虑到中美关系正处于关键性转折节点，有望走向阶段性缓 和，风险偏好将成为市场主线。中美小阳春或货币政策大幅宽松有望驱动我 国出现股债双牛行情，但过程中可能略有反复，风险偏好的修复并非一蹴而 就，我国可能在中美关系以及国内政策应对波折的考验后迎来一轮股债双牛。 ❑ 3 月供给侧 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 调味发酵品Ⅱ 投资要点 2024 年实现收入 65.4 亿元，同比增长 6.4% 2024 年，公司实现收入约 65.4 亿元，同比增长 6.4%；实现净利润约 8.0 亿元，同比减少 11.9%；实现归母净利润约 7.4 亿元，同比下降 13.3%。2024 年下半年，公司实现收入约 36.1亿元，同比增长 2.3%；实现净利润约 4.7亿元，同比下降 12.2%；实现归母净利润 4.3 亿元，同比下降 12.9%；2024 年全年业绩增长主要得益于第三方业务增长带动，其收入同 比增长 9.1%。 盈利能力承压，费用投放支持业务拓展同比增长 1.9% 2024 年公司毛利率/净利率分别为 31.3%/12.2%，同比 -0.3pct/-2.6pct，毛利率调整主要受 到产品结构优化及关联方采购价格变动影响。火锅底料产品关联方/第三方毛利率分别为 14.1%/48.7%， 同 比-3.2pcts/0.1pcts ； 中 式 复 合 调 味 品 关 联 方/第 三 方 毛 利 率 分 别 18.7%/35.2%，同比+0.4pcts /+1.7pcts ； 方便速食产品关联方/第 ...

事件 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 白色家电 分红比例提升，看好经营能力进一步优化 ——海尔智家 2024 年报点评 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年年报：公司 2024 年实现营业收入 2859.81 亿元，同比+4.29%； 归母净利润 187.41 亿元，同比+12.92%。对应 2024Q4 营业收入 830.10 亿元，同 比+9.88%；归母净利润 35.87 亿元，同比+3.96%。 点评 ❑ 分红比例提升至 48%，推出回购计划 公司拟向全体股东按每 10 股派发现金股利人民币 9.65 元（含税），拟派发分红 金额合计约 90 亿元，分红比例从 2023 年的 45%提升至 48%。公司拟以不超过人 民币 40 元/股的价格回购不超过 20 亿元且不低于 10 亿元的 A 股股票，将全部用 于实施公司员工持股计划，彰显信心。 ❑ 海外降息背景下利息压力有望缓释，看好公司数字化改革持续助经营能力优化 当前美联储点阵图显示预计 2025 年内降息 50BP，有望一定程度缓解公司海外利 息支出压力；另一方面，2024 年来公司数字化改革成效明显，看好 AI 应用赋能 +数字化改革深入继续驱动公司经营提 ...

❑ 精细化经营的推进→锻长板补短板行动升级 吕董事长在致辞中提出，兴业银行要"将金融服务嵌入到一个个消费场景，对每 笔资产和负债业务进行精细化定价，给各家经营机构更多差异化政策"，"不断挖 掘现有 1.1 亿零售客户、150 万企业客户、4000 家同业客户的价值"。未来兴业银 行经营精细化程度有望进一步提升，存量客群盈利贡献有望改善，有助于缩小兴 业银行和头部银行的盈利能力差距。①零售来看，与头部银行招行相比，兴业银 行测算的零售存贷利差差距约在41bp，如假设利差改善至招行水平，以2024A数 据测算，可贡献 3.7%营收和 7.7%利润。②对公来看，与优质银行中信相比，兴 业银行测算的对公存贷利差差距约在 85bp，如假设利差改善至中信水平，以 2024A 数据测算，可贡献 13.6%营收和 28.0%利润。 ❑ 风险曲线掉头向下→不良不确定性改善 此前市场担忧兴业银行未来风险压力较大。吕董事长在发布会中明确提出 "危 机不能浪费，学费不能白交"，未来要"确保风险曲线尽快掉头向下"。2024 年 兴业银行不良压力已经见到改善拐点，随着后续风控机制完善，兴业银行资产质 量不确定性有望改善。兴业银行 24Q ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit, but a rebound in fundamentals is anticipated for 2025 due to factors such as increased demand for hyper-converged and AICP platforms driven by large model deployments, significant improvement in advance payments, and stabilization of expenses [2][10] - The cybersecurity business is under short-term pressure, while the cloud computing business continues to grow well, with a 9.51% year-on-year increase in revenue [3][11] - The company has seen a notable improvement in advance payments, which is expected to positively influence revenue trends in 2025 [10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue by business segment was as follows: - Cybersecurity: 36.29 billion yuan, down 6.75% - Cloud Computing: 33.84 billion yuan, up 9.51% - Enterprise Wireless: 5.06 billion yuan, down 25.53% [3] - Revenue by downstream industry in 2024: - Enterprise: 34.87 billion yuan, up 1.82% - Government and Institutions: 32.97 billion yuan, down 3.85% - Finance and Others: 7.36 billion yuan, down 8.99% [4] Expense Management - The company's total sales, research, and management expenses in Q4 2024 were 11.88 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year and down 7.6% from Q3 2024, indicating ongoing improvement [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects to see revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenues of 81.25 billion yuan, 91.15 billion yuan, and 102.72 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 3.46 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.94 billion yuan [12]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 31 日 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/黄华栋】微光股份（002801）公司深度：全球冷链电机龙头，"人形 机器人+深海科技"电机打开空间——20250327 重要推荐 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/黄华栋】微光股份（002801）公司深度：全球冷链电机龙头，"人形机器人+深海科技" 电机打开空间——20250327 【浙商食饮 杨骥/孙天一/钟烨晨】古茗（01364）公司深度：结硬寨打呆仗，扩店空间广阔——20250327 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟】德邦科技（688035）公司深度：进口替代+新兴需求，高端封装材料龙头重启高增长 ——20250328 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/李思扬】丰立智能（301368）公司深度：小模数齿轮龙头，人形机器 ...

政策托底，供给下降，逢低布局 ——煤炭行业周报（3月第4周） 行业评级：看好 证券研究报告 2025年3月30日 分析师 樊金璐 分析师 程镱 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 chengyi02@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 电话 18611864599 证书编号 S1230525030002 证书编号 S1230524100002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑输沪深300指数。中信煤炭行业收跌0.13%，沪深300指数上涨0.01%，跑输沪深300指数0.14个百分点。板块整周8只股价上涨。中国神华涨幅最高，整周涨幅为3.3%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：周供给增加。中国煤炭运销协会数据，3月21日-3月27日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为719万吨，周环比增加0.2%，年同比增加2.3%。其中，动力煤周日均销量较 上周增加0.4%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加0.7%，无烟煤销量较上周减少2.2%。截至3月28日，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）3550万吨，周环比减少0.3%，年同比增加41%。今年以来， 供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量58382万吨，同比-4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown operational efficiency improvements and is actively investing in cultivating competitive advantages. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.676 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.4%, with a slight increase of 1.0 percentage points. The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 3.013 billion, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but EBITDA is expected to improve by 6% [2][5] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 28.676 billion (+3.9%) - 2025: 28.870 billion (+0.68%) - 2026: 30.315 billion (+5.0%) - 2027: 31.747 billion (+4.72%) [2][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 3.013 billion (-5.46%) - 2025: 2.616 billion (-13.18%) - 2026: 2.923 billion (+11.75%) - 2027: 3.217 billion (+10.04%) [2][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.17 - 2025: 1.01 - 2026: 1.13 - 2027: 1.24 [2][6] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 13.6 - 2025: 15.6 - 2026: 14.0 - 2027: 12.7 [2][6] Operational Insights - The company has reported a stable revenue performance with a focus on enhancing operational quality. The e-commerce channel has shown a growth rate of 10.3% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel has seen a slight decline of 0.4%. The average store size has increased, and the average monthly sales per store have reached 300,000 RMB [5][6] - Cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 5.268 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The inventory level is healthy, with a turnover period of 4 months [5][6] Market Positioning - The company is expected to enhance its brand presence and product reputation through increased investment in professional research and development, sponsorship of various sports events, and targeting different consumer segments. The revenue growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 289 billion, 303 billion, and 317 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining its position as a leading sports brand in China [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 金属新材料 业绩稳健成长，新兴领域突破可期 ——云路股份 2024 年报点评报告 投资要点 分业务看，2024 年公司主业非晶产品业务营收 14.2 亿元（占比 74.7%），受益于 国内电网设备升级及海外市场拓展（印度、韩国）持续成长；公司纳米晶产品业 务营收 3.05 亿元（占比 16.07%），同比增长 34.71%但受制于原材料成本上升及 产能爬坡毛利率承压下降 2.94%，未来公司纳米晶产品有望在新能源汽车、光伏 逆变器等终端领域进一步拓展成长空间。 ❑ 核心看点：政策+需求共振，多赛道打开空间 展望未来，国内电网投资改造政策密集出台，海外美国、欧盟市场则不断加码电 网升级改造计划，美国 DOE 新能效标准推动非晶变压器占比提升至 25%，内外 共振将进一步提升全球非晶变压器市场需求。 在新能源领域，2024 年全球新增光伏装机约 430-470GW，光伏逆变器磁材需求 持续成长；2024 年国内新能源汽车渗透率达到 47.6%，车载充电器、驱动电机 所用纳米晶/磁粉芯市场仍然广阔。 新兴领域不断崛起则暗含公司未来发展巨大潜力：AI 时代算力爆发需求将进一 步驱动电力 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan in 2024, exceeding expectations, with total revenue of 42.8 billion yuan (yoy +3%) and core operating profit of 6.2 billion yuan (yoy +19%) [1][3] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024, which is the highest since its listing, providing attractive shareholder returns with a current annualized dividend yield of about 5% [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a focus on enhancing customer spending and improving table turnover rates, which are projected to reach 4.1 in 2024, up from 3.8 in 2023 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth [1][11] - The core operating profit margin improved by 2 percentage points, with gross margin increasing by approximately 3 percentage points due to enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs [2] Growth Potential - The company is expected to open new stores at a moderate single-digit growth rate in 2025, supported by a high table turnover rate and the introduction of the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the development of new restaurant brands [1][3] - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to foster the growth of new dining brands, which has already resulted in 74 new stores by the end of 2024, enhancing long-term growth potential [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.2 billion yuan, 5.9 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10% [3][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential valuation premium due to the company's leading position in the industry [3][11]