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迈为股份(300751):点评报告:太空HJT光伏星辰大海,半导体设备成长曲线加速
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 13:03
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 光伏设备 ——迈为股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 光伏设备:HJT+钙钛矿设备多轮驱动,受益地面+太空光伏新需求 公司主要产品包括:HJT 异质结电池生产线+钙钛矿叠层设备。我们认为:在白 银价格大幅上涨、及 P 型 HJT 在太空光伏的应用潜力,未来公司 HJT 设备在地面 +太空领域有望齐发力,龙头公司成长空间大。 1)光伏 HJT 设备—— (4)生产线配套设备:包括自动上下片机、转接机、烧结炉/干燥炉/固化炉/ 烘干炉、检测测试分选机等,确保生产线的高效运作。 2)光伏 HJT+钙钛矿叠层设备—— 据公司官方微信公众号,2025 年 12 月成功取得公司在叠层电池领域的首个商业 化整线订单。此次合作将助力客户建成业内领先的 G12H 全面积钙钛矿/硅异质 结叠层电池量产线。兼具高材料利用率与高生产节拍的喷墨打印技术,以及高 效率且高生产节拍的板式时间型原子层沉积(ALD)技术等。 迈为股份(300751) 报告日期:2026 年 01 月 28 日 太空 HJT 光伏星辰大海,半导体设备成长曲线加速 (2)MiniLED 领域:晶圆隐切、裂片、刺晶巨转、激光键合等全套设备; ...
AI、机器人、无人驾驶、商业航天、脑机接口、新能源:马年看“马”
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 04:50
Core Insights - Elon Musk's technology landscape encompasses six key disruptive technology sectors: AI, robotics, autonomous driving, commercial space, brain-machine interfaces, and new energy, representing significant investment opportunities for the next decade [2][3] - The report scores Musk's thematic investment concept at 95 out of 100, indicating strong potential across various dimensions, with an excess return of 127.44% compared to the Wind All A index from early 2025 to January 23, 2026 [8][14] Group 1: Musk's Investment Sector Layout - Musk has systematically positioned his companies, including Tesla, xAI, SpaceX, and Neuralink, across six critical technology areas that are interconnected and complementary, aiming to elevate human civilization [3][14] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point for the commercialization of Musk's technology landscape, with several core projects expected to transition from development to market realization [3][14] Group 2: Investment Opportunities by Sector 1. **Robotics**: The anticipated success of the Optimus robot will drive demand across the entire robotics supply chain, presenting significant investment opportunities in upstream core components and midstream assembly [4][19] 2. **AI**: Musk's dual approach of self-developed computing power and software aims to establish a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with investment opportunities expected to focus on computing infrastructure and software applications by 2026 [25][26] 3. **Commercial Space**: The deployment of Starlink satellites and the operationalization of the Starship are set to revolutionize low Earth orbit communications, creating investment opportunities in upstream components, midstream launch services, and downstream applications [34][36] 4. **Brain-Machine Interfaces**: Neuralink's advancements in brain-machine interface technology are expected to lead to significant investment opportunities in upstream electrodes and chips, as well as midstream system integration and clinical services [43][48] 5. **Autonomous Driving**: The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service in 2026 will validate the commercial model for autonomous driving, with investment opportunities in core computing power, algorithms, and manufacturers capable of L3+ production [56][59] 6. **New Energy**: Tesla's energy business is projected to experience explosive growth, particularly in energy storage systems, with investment opportunities in system integration, core component supply, and virtual power plant operations [62][66] Group 3: Thematic Evaluation and Stock Pool - The thematic evaluation of Musk's concept is based on eight dimensions, scoring particularly high in market capacity, policy effectiveness, and future growth potential, while the valuation level received a lower score [79][81] - A stock pool has been constructed based on six sectors: robotics, commercial space, AI, brain-machine interfaces, autonomous driving, and new energy, serving as a reference for investors [82]
浙商证券浙商早知道-20260128
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 23:30
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2026 年 01 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 28 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 资金:1 月 27 日全 A 总成交额为 29215 亿元,南下资金净流出 6.35 亿港元。 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/姬新悦】咸亨国际(605056)公司深度:领先 MRO 集约化服务龙头,具身智能应用 打开成长空间——20260126 重要观点 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/费瑾】宏观深度报告:从"有钱"到"有闲":中国假日经济变革影响几何?——20260126 重要点评 【浙商煤炭 樊金璐】煤炭 行业深度:黑金破晓,焦煤崛起——20260127 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:1 月 27 日上证指数上涨 0.18%,沪深 300 下跌 0.03%,科创 50 上涨 1.51%,中证 1000 上涨 0.2%,创业板 指上涨 0.71%,恒生指数上涨 1.35%。 行业:1 月 ...
大制造中观策略行业周报:2026:AI 之光引领成长;反内卷周期反转-20260127
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 14:05
Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI and the reversal of the anti-involution cycle in the manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Precision, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, and SANY Heavy Industry among others [2][3] Industry Performance - The report notes significant performance in various sectors, with the best-performing indices being the construction materials sector (+9.23%), oil and petrochemicals (+7.71%), and steel (+7.31%) for the week ending January 23, 2026 [5][23] - In the manufacturing sector, the top indices were the photovoltaic concept index (+9.33%), aerospace and military theme index (+7.65%), and new energy concept index (+7.44%) [5][24] Key Industry Trends - The report discusses the rapid rise of space photovoltaic technology and the integration of the nuclear fusion industry in the U.S., highlighting technological breakthroughs and increased international cooperation [4][6][9] - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) industry is noted for its consolidation and the potential for domestic breakthroughs, driven by government support and strategic acquisitions [11][12][14] Company-Specific Insights - China Shipbuilding Industry Company is expected to benefit from asset integration within the group, improving competitive dynamics and operational efficiency [15][16] - The report forecasts significant profit growth for key companies, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 showing substantial increases, particularly for companies like China Shipbuilding [17][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core positions and flexible targets within the EDA sector, as domestic companies are positioned for significant growth due to increased policy support and market demand [11][17] - Specific companies to watch include Huada Jiutian, Gelun Electronics, and Guangli Micro [17]
智能电动汽车行业点评报告:国产豪华智能车崛起
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 13:29
证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 计算机 国产豪华智能车崛起 ——智能电动汽车行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 打造尊界战略转型成效初现 江淮汽车 2025 年全力投入尊界品牌打造,在研发、生产、营销端与华为全力配合, 自 2025Q3 开始实现批量交付,Q4 时押注尊界带来的战略转型财务成效已初步体 现。根据公司业绩公告,2025 全年归母净利润-16.8 亿元,较去年同期减亏 10.4 亿 元。单 Q4 扣非后归母净利润剔除大众安徽 10.8 亿投资亏损后,已达 3.7 亿元。 ❑ 尊界交付表现亮眼,超豪华市场一骑绝尘 尊界 S800 2025 年累计交付达到 11,930 辆。自 2025 Q3 批量交付以来,迅速跃 居 70 万元以上超豪华轿车交付量榜首。12 月尊界 S800 轿车交付 4,376 辆,月 度环比增加 104%,超过帕拉梅拉(1593 辆)+宝马 7 系(1429 辆)+迈巴赫 S 级 (1118 辆)总和。截至 2025 年末,尊界 S800 累计大定订单已突破 1.8 万辆, 深厚的订单池为后续持续放量提供了坚实保障。细分市场登顶的"尊界速度",验 证了尊界在超豪华市场品牌的成功。 ❑ ...
永赢基金王乾:逆向价值底仓,注重安全边际
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 12:21
Core Insights - The market pricing logic is shifting from short-term emotional speculation back to long-term industrial cycles, with a focus on deep safety margins and a contrarian approach in sectors like chemicals, finance, and traditional cycles [1][12] - The strategy is characterized by a deep value defense combined with a contrarian offensive, essentially acting as a high-probability call option on the recovery of the Chinese economy and the style switch in A-shares [1][12] Strategy Positioning: Resilient Bottom Position in a Bull Market - In a mid-bull market with extreme valuation differentiation, the report emphasizes avoiding popular bubble sectors and instead focuses on left-side pricing during industry headwinds [2][13] - The representative product has a maximum drawdown of only 10.8%, outperforming the 15.66% drawdown of the CSI 300 index during the same period [2][13] - The fund manager's commitment to a balanced value strategy is highlighted as a rare approach in a market characterized by high beta and significant intraday volatility [2][13] Investment Framework: High Probability Mean Reversion - The investment framework is based on capturing upward elastic opportunities during market downturns, with a focus on buying at cyclical bottoms [3][17] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a core position in basic chemicals and consumer staples while tactically increasing exposure to non-bank financials to capitalize on bull market rebounds [18][20] - The report outlines a three-dimensional investment approach: maintaining core holdings in strong industries, tactical offensives in financials, and defensive measures through high-dividend, low-volatility assets [18][20] Portfolio Analysis: Asymmetric Risk-Return Structure - The portfolio exhibits a significant asymmetric risk-return profile, with a solid bottom and upward elasticity [21][23] - The longest-managed product, Yongying Huize, operates with a low turnover rate of 1.69 and a high position of 90%, effectively managing drawdowns while maintaining long-term returns [21][23] - The report notes that the maximum drawdown was effectively controlled at around 6% despite market challenges, reflecting a strong risk management strategy [21][23] Market Outlook and Allocation Strategy: Aligning with Macro Trends - The report identifies four key macroeconomic themes: optimizing supply structures through anti-involution policies, leveraging central government leverage to stabilize asset values, and stimulating consumption and fertility to unlock domestic demand [34][35] - The anticipated global liquidity and PPI upturn in 2026 are expected to support resource revaluation and corporate profit cycles, particularly benefiting sectors like food and beverage, chemicals, and electronics [35][38] - The investment strategy is expected to perform well in 2026, focusing on cyclical and domestic demand assets that are at a dual inflection point of profitability and valuation [42][43]
2025年1-12月工业企业盈利数据的背后:新质引领工业利润,传统仍有承压
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 09:22
Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In 2025, industrial enterprises' profits grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous 0.1%[2] - December 2025 saw a profit increase of 5.3% compared to a 13.1% decline in November 2025[2] - The average two-year profit growth rate for December was -1.35%, indicating a narrowing decline[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 13.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 12.7 percentage points[4] - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 39.8% to total industrial profits, a 2.6 percentage point increase from the previous year[6] - Profits in the smart consumer device manufacturing sector surged by 48.0%, with specific industries like smart drones and automotive devices seeing increases of 102.0% and 88.8% respectively[4] Group 3: Traditional Industries and Challenges - Traditional industries are experiencing a split, with sectors like biochemical pesticides and bio-based energy showing significant profit growth, while textiles and furniture remain under pressure[6] - The profit growth in traditional sectors with new productivity characteristics was notably higher, with biochemical pesticides growing by 20.7% and bio-based energy by 47.9%[6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy aims to curb low-quality, low-price competition, supporting a stabilization of industrial profits[7] - The PPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - The forecast for 2026 suggests a gradual recovery in industrial profits, with an expected annual growth rate of 3.6%[9]
特步国际:跑步心智向上,索康尼如期靓丽-20260127
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 07:45
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 跑步心智向上,索康尼如期靓丽 ——特步国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2025Q4 运营情况,特步主品牌流水同比持平,零售环境疲软下维持稳 健;索康尼流水同比+30%以上,线下高速增长,电商调整顺利。2025 年全年特 步主品牌流水低单位数增长,索康尼流水同比+30%以上,全年目标顺利达成。 ❑ 主品牌:Q4 流水持平,25 年低单增长,跑步户外增长领跑 特步主品牌 25Q4 流水同比持平,Q4 分月来看,10-11 月流水表现好于 12 月;25 年流水低单位数增长,受跑步品类和电商渠道均双位数增长拉动,整体维持稳健 增长态势,跑步品牌势能持续向上,25 年 11 月上海马拉松赛事中公司旗舰碳板 跑鞋 160X 7.0 PRO 助力运动员丰配友斩获男子组冠军,特步品牌全局选手穿着 率继续稳居第一达到 21.5%。主品牌 25Q4 折扣 70-75 折,同比持平,25 年末库 销比约 4.5 个月,库存状况健康,折扣较为可控。 ❑ 索康尼:店效快速提升,电商调整顺利 索康尼 25Q4 和 25 全年流水均同比增长 30%以上,顺利完成全年目标,Q4 增长 环比加 ...
焦煤行业研究深度报告:黑金破晓,焦煤崛起
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 07:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the coking coal industry, highlighting its strategic importance due to scarcity and irreplaceability [3][4]. Core Insights - Coking coal is recognized as a strategic resource, with its global value underscored by the U.S. Department of Energy listing metallurgical coal as a critical material. Despite recent price declines due to increased imports from Mongolia and reduced domestic steel demand, the report anticipates a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a potential price increase in the future [4][5]. - The report forecasts a significant improvement in the performance of coking coal companies as supply tightens and demand rises, particularly from developing countries. It suggests that the price of coking coal could stabilize around 2000 RMB/ton, with a range of 1500-2500 RMB/ton expected [4][5]. Global Supply - Global coking coal supply is projected to decline, with key producing countries experiencing reduced output. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.7% for coking coal production from 2025 to 2030 [4][5]. - In China, coking coal production is expected to decrease due to resource depletion and potential capacity exits, with a forecasted production of 59.47 million tons in 2025 [13][22]. - Russia's coking coal supply is also anticipated to decline, with production expected to drop due to severe losses in coal companies and limited domestic transport capacity [27][29]. - Australia is facing a reduction in coking coal supply as high-cost mines exit the market due to low prices and increased operational costs [34][39]. Global Demand - Global demand for coking coal is expected to rise, particularly driven by developing countries. The report predicts a CAGR of 0.9% for crude steel production from 2025 to 2030, with significant contributions from India and ASEAN countries [4][5][58]. - India's crude steel production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2025 to 2030, leading to increased consumption and imports of metallurgical coal [58][59]. - The report highlights that while China's steel demand is expected to decline slightly, the overall global steel demand is anticipated to stabilize and rebound, particularly in emerging markets [55][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coking coal companies with low market capitalization per ton of coal, such as Pingmei Shenma Energy, Hengyuan Coal Power, Shanxi Coking Coal, Jizhong Energy, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining [4][5].
特步国际(01368):跑步心智向上,索康尼如期靓丽
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-01-27 07:22
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 跑步心智向上,索康尼如期靓丽 ——特步国际点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2025Q4 运营情况,特步主品牌流水同比持平,零售环境疲软下维持稳 健;索康尼流水同比+30%以上,线下高速增长,电商调整顺利。2025 年全年特 步主品牌流水低单位数增长,索康尼流水同比+30%以上,全年目标顺利达成。 ❑ 主品牌:Q4 流水持平,25 年低单增长,跑步户外增长领跑 特步主品牌 25Q4 流水同比持平,Q4 分月来看,10-11 月流水表现好于 12 月;25 年流水低单位数增长,受跑步品类和电商渠道均双位数增长拉动,整体维持稳健 增长态势,跑步品牌势能持续向上,25 年 11 月上海马拉松赛事中公司旗舰碳板 跑鞋 160X 7.0 PRO 助力运动员丰配友斩获男子组冠军,特步品牌全局选手穿着 率继续稳居第一达到 21.5%。主品牌 25Q4 折扣 70-75 折,同比持平,25 年末库 销比约 4.5 个月,库存状况健康,折扣较为可控。 ❑ 索康尼:店效快速提升,电商调整顺利 索康尼 25Q4 和 25 全年流水均同比增长 30%以上,顺利完成全年目标,Q4 增长 环比加 ...