Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The RDA (Real Data Assets) paradigm has been introduced, emphasizing the integration of real data with physical assets, enhancing the authenticity and value of other physical assets, and promoting the capitalization of data elements [1][2] - RDA focuses on the transformation of real data into "golden assets" through blockchain technology, creating a complete path from asset registration to trading, and enhancing the interaction between data elements and capital markets [2][4] Summary by Sections RDA Paradigm and Central Bank Signals - On July 3, the Shanghai Data Exchange released a report on RDA, marking a new phase in data assetization [1] - The People's Bank of China has outlined its achievements and future plans in promoting the deep integration of digital technology and data elements [1] RDA Characteristics and Financialization - RDA consists of three stages: asset preparation, asset issuance, and asset trading, forming a complete chain for the digitalization of physical assets and financialization of data assets [2] - RDA's five characteristics—real number integration, genuine transparency, credible returns, value reconstruction, and ecological collaboration—enhance the interaction between data elements and capital markets [2] Market Potential and Application Scenarios - The RDA market has vast potential, with expected exponential growth in application demand as RDA becomes a mainstream asset type [4] - RDA's versatility allows it to be applied across various non-standard scenarios, including supply chain finance, carbon assets, industrial internet, travel, and intellectual property [4] Related Companies - Companies involved in data and physical asset integration include Jianhui Information and Jieshun Technology [4] - Blockchain foundational companies include Shanda Diwei, Jiuyuan Yinhai, and Zhongke Jiangnan [4] - Companies focused on data capitalization include Shanghai Ganglian, Toris, Hehe Information, and others [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a projected growth of approximately 213% to 268% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit of 460 to 540 million yuan [1] - The growth in profit is attributed to improved operational efficiency, increased revenue from shipbuilding products, and better performance from joint ventures [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing upward cyclical trends due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to enhance profitability for shipyards [2][3] Financial Summary - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are approximately 900 million, 1.66 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 139%, 84%, and 63% respectively [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.64 yuan in 2025, 1.18 yuan in 2026, and 1.91 yuan in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 44, 24, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 2.1, 1.9, and 1.7 [4][6] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is witnessing a slowdown in new orders, with a 58% year-on-year decline in new orders received in the first half of 2025, although certain segments like container ships have seen growth [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are expected to drive ship prices higher due to tight capacity and inflationary pressures [2][3]

Market Overview - On July 14, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.07%, the STAR 50 fell by 0.21%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 14 were machinery equipment (+1.23%), comprehensive (+1.04%), public utilities (+1.04%), household appliances (+1.02%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.86%). The worst-performing sectors were real estate (-1.29%), media (-1.24%), non-bank financials (-1.03%), retail (-0.94%), and computers (-0.88%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 14 was 1,480.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 8.243 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Industry Insights - The report highlights the dual opportunities presented by HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) and the AI wave, indicating a new investment trend in AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) [5] - HVDC is expected to open up growth opportunities, while the demand for backup power sources in the generator segment is on the rise due to supply shortages [5] - Investment opportunities include the high value of power supply systems and the increasing density of AI computing chips driving HVDC iterations, alongside the upward trend in generator backup power demand [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Retail loans show a weak recovery, with new medium and long-term loans for residents increasing by 335.3 billion, up 15.1 billion year-on-year, and short-term loans increasing by 262.1 billion, up 15.0 billion year-on-year. The growth is primarily driven by operational loans, which contributed 80% of the retail loan increment [2] - Corporate loans experienced a temporary surge, with new short-term loans for enterprises increasing by 1.2 trillion, up 490 billion year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI was at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, although the actual demand may not have significantly improved [3] - The overall credit environment is characterized by larger monthly fluctuations, with a trend of larger months followed by smaller months. This is attributed to early repayments influenced by debt reduction funds and the concentrated issuance of short-term loans by banks [3] - For the full year, a slight increase in credit is expected, with the potential for year-on-year growth in the second half of the year due to the weakening impact of debt replacement and a low base effect from the previous year [4] Summary by Sections Retail Loans - New medium and long-term loans for residents increased by 335.3 billion, while short-term loans increased by 262.1 billion. The growth in retail loans is mainly driven by operational loans [2] Corporate Loans - New short-term loans for enterprises surged to 1.2 trillion, while long-term loans increased by 1.0 trillion. The demand for short-term loans is under scrutiny for sustainability [3] Credit Environment - The credit landscape shows significant monthly volatility, with larger months followed by smaller months, indicating challenges in credit management for banks [3] Future Outlook - A slight increase in credit is anticipated for the year, with expectations of year-on-year growth in the second half due to a low base effect from the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is considered the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, possessing scale, first-mover, and management advantages. The company has over 15,000 stores, strong bargaining power in the supply chain, and potential for improved net profit margins as subsidy costs decrease. Additionally, the bulk snack stores effectively meet the consumption needs of lower-tier markets, allowing for continuous category expansion and significant growth potential [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 540 billion, 643 billion, and 734 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.36 billion, 12.92 billion, and 16.02 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial room for market capitalization growth due to the company's rarity and growth potential [3][4]. Category Expansion - The company is transitioning from a "snack+" model to a "discount supermarket" model, driven by the need to address the challenges of scale inefficiency and low-price competition in the retail sector. The bulk snack channel has become a significant player in the snack category, with expectations of revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025. The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly competition structure, where leading companies have a competitive edge due to their scale and first-mover advantages [12][13][14]. Consumer Demand and Market Position - The bulk snack channel meets consumer demands for "more, faster, better, and cheaper," with a typical customer price point of 20-30 yuan. The channel's products are priced at 70-80% of those in other channels, making it an attractive option for consumers. The company aims to leverage its scale and bargaining power to capture market share in lower-tier cities [15][16][20]. Store Experience and Product Offering - The company's stores are designed to enhance consumer experience, featuring clear product area divisions and engaging layouts that encourage deeper exploration of the store. The introduction of diverse product categories, including fresh food, baked goods, and toys, aims to create a one-stop shopping experience that meets various consumer needs [63][68][70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Recent trial feedback for Glo Hilo in Sendai, Japan has been positive, indicating that improvements in HNB product experience and faster conversion of smokers will drive industry growth, benefiting the company through its partnership with British American Tobacco [2] - The price increase of Glo Hilo's cartridges reflects confidence in product strength, with the new cartridge priced at 580 JPY (approximately 4 USD), a more than 30% increase from the previous model [3] - British American Tobacco is expected to invest significantly in Hilo, aiming for new tobacco revenue to reach 50% by 2035, up from the current 13%, highlighting the importance of HNB products for the company's future [4] Summary by Sections Recent Catalysts and Core Viewpoints - Glo Hilo's trial in Japan has shown promising results, suggesting a potential acceleration in industry growth due to enhanced product experiences [2] - The price increase of Hilo cartridges indicates strong product confidence and potential for higher returns for the company [3] - British American Tobacco's commitment to HNB products is expected to increase, with significant resources allocated to Hilo [4] Market Dynamics - The HNB market is evolving, with improved product experiences leading to higher conversion rates among traditional smokers [8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like Philip Morris, Japan Tobacco, and British American Tobacco sharing market shares more evenly [9] Regulatory Environment and Business Potential - The company is poised to benefit from stricter regulations on vaping products in Europe and North America, which may lead to increased demand for compliant products [10] - The medical business segment is expected to gain importance, with significant investments in research and development for HNB and medical aerosol products [11] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 128.9 billion, 153.1 billion, and 183.5 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 19%, and 20% respectively [12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 13.2 billion, 20.0 billion, and 27.3 billion for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 2%, 51%, and 36% [12]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights Huachen Equipment (300809) as a leading domestic roll grinding machine manufacturer, with a strategic focus on humanoid robot grinding machines to tap into a blue ocean market [5] - The recommendation logic is based on the company's superior product performance, which has reached international leading levels, and confirmed orders from top humanoid robot manufacturers [5] - The steel industry is expected to recover, which will positively impact the company's short-term performance, as its main revenue comes from CNC roll grinding machines [5] Group 2: Important Insights - The medical device sector is anticipated to see a performance recovery in H2 2025, driven by ongoing bidding recovery and inventory adjustments in high-value consumables [7][8] - The report notes that the market remains cautious about the sustainability of bidding recovery and the impact of high-value consumables procurement on company performance [7] - The long-term growth potential of chain pharmacies is highlighted, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by improved management and diversification efforts [8] Group 3: Financial Projections - For Huachen Equipment, projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 558.70 million, 700.90 million, and 914.30 million yuan, with growth rates of 25% for the first two years and 30% for 2027 [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 109.70 million, 153.50 million, and 200.50 million yuan, with growth rates of 59%, 40%, and 31% respectively [6] - Earnings per share are expected to be 0.40, 0.60, and 0.80 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 82.50, 58.90, and 45.10 [6] Group 4: Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a diversified investment strategy, focusing on banks as a stable foundation while also investing in low-positioned securities and technology growth sectors [9] - It emphasizes the importance of individual stock selection over index performance, especially in the technology sector, given the current market conditions [9] - The outlook indicates limited downside potential in the market, with opportunities for individual stocks to perform well despite potential index corrections [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall investment rating for the bond market. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [34]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [35]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the price change of convertible bonds relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [36]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond index has reached a new high, and its future trend depends on the performance of the equity market. The market scale is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is significant. Investors are advised to focus on individual bonds rather than the index, increase tolerance for the price range of convertible bonds, and consider balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term in line with policy directions [1][2][9]. - The median price of convertible bonds is 125.68 yuan, the median parity is 99.42 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate is 26%. The valuations of all types of convertible bonds have increased in the past two weeks. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined marginally in cross - asset comparisons, but due to the "asset shortage" in the market, institutional attention to convertible bonds remains high [2][7]. - The supply of convertible bonds accelerated in the second quarter, with 10 issues listed, totaling about 13.76 billion yuan. Six convertible bonds have been listed in July, with a scale of about 4.35 billion yuan, a faster pace than in 2024. From April to July, 7 convertible bonds matured and 25 were forcibly redeemed, with a total exit scale of over 40 billion yuan. Another 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds will mature from August to December. The short - term supply supplement is still limited [2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The equity market reached 3500 last week, driving the convertible bond index to a new high. The median price of convertible bonds has reached 125 yuan, an all - time high. The willingness to force redemption increased in July, capping the theoretical price of convertible bonds [7]. - The price and valuation of convertible bonds are both high, and their future trend depends on the equity market. If the equity market rises, convertible bonds may follow but with limited space; if it moves sideways, funds may realize profits; if it declines, convertible bonds may be relatively resistant to decline [2][7]. - The market scale of convertible bonds is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although the number of new issuance plans has increased and the approval process seems to be accelerating, the current stock of planned convertible bonds is still limited, and the issuance of mainstream varieties such as bank convertible bonds is restricted by new refinancing regulations [2][8]. - Given the high median price of convertible bonds, investors are advised to focus on individual bonds. Balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term can provide trading opportunities. If opportunities are limited, investors can consider adjusting their positions from high - priced to low - priced bonds [2][9]. 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - month, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Material Index, etc. [14]. 3.2.2 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds The document does not provide specific content in the text, but there are charts showing the top ten and bottom ten individual bond price changes (excluding new listings) in the past week [16]. 3.2.3 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds in different parity ranges [25][28]. 3.2.4 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the proportion trend of high - priced bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [30].

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of July 12 is 5.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.8%[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index slightly decreased to 8.3% from 8.4%[10] - The service industry weekly prosperity index also slightly decreased to 4.0% from 4.1%[10] Production and Demand - Production indicators show mixed results, with service and industrial sectors experiencing fluctuations compared to last week[13] - Consumer demand is declining, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 4.6% from 5.0%[10] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight decline, with rebar apparent demand at 221.5 million tons, down from 224.9 million tons[10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 30 major cities' property sales dropping to 125.9 million square meters, a 44% decrease week-on-week and a 26% decrease year-on-year[52] - The cumulative transaction area for real estate in 2025 is 49.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.37%[52] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 653,000 TEUs reported, slightly down from 667,000 TEUs last week, but showing a year-to-date increase of 3.6%[61] - U.S. imports from China are improving, with 21.8 million TEUs arriving, reflecting a 21.7% increase week-on-week[61] Price Trends - Marginal recovery in prices is noted, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.45% week-on-week[63] - The average price of pork increased by 1.12% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[66]