Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average land acquisition price in sample cities has increased year-on-year, with a notable expansion in the growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a year-on-year decline, with the decline in new housing transactions expanding significantly [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in demand for new and second-hand homes due to anticipated decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - As of July 3, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions in sample cities is -34%, which is a worsening of 21 percentage points compared to June [3]. - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -41%, while second-tier cities have a decline of -19% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions is -9%, with a worsening of 5 percentage points compared to June [3]. - First-tier cities have experienced a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a more challenging market environment [3]. Land Acquisition Trends - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [23]. - The report notes that the land premium rate has decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential cooling in land market speculation [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate market stability remains a key policy goal, with a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies [5]. - The anticipated recovery in the housing market is expected to be driven by a combination of supply reduction, improved quality of supply, and significant differentiation in buyer profiles [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2] - The overall market capitalization of the real estate sector is noted to be 2712.5 billion, with a circulating market value of 2565.9 billion, reflecting a 3% increase [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "credit bottom" and "business model bottom" as key indicators for future investment strategies in real estate [7][12] Group 2 - The report predicts a decline in new housing sales by 6.2% year-on-year for 2025, with expectations of a gradual recovery in subsequent years [21][25] - It is anticipated that the new housing price will stabilize first in core urban areas, with a projected average price decrease of 1% for 2025 [38][41] - The report suggests that the supply-demand relationship for new homes is improving, with a notable reduction in supply and an increase in quality, which is expected to lead to price stabilization [36][38] Group 3 - The report indicates that the rental yield and mortgage rate gap is narrowing, which is expected to support the overall housing demand [19][20] - It is projected that the total transaction area for new and second-hand homes will see a year-on-year change of -2% in 2025, followed by a slight increase in 2026 and 2027 [25][28] - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a healthy structure, with a 11% increase in the number of listings compared to the end of 2024 [43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, Supor, and others [2]. Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to benefit companies with production capacity in Vietnam, as tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US have significantly decreased from 46% to 20% [1]. - The US labor market data indicates a mixed outlook, with a decrease in ADP employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which may increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. Industry Scale - The home appliance industry consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,835.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,748.9 billion [3]. Key Company Financials - Midea Group: Market Cap 563.3 billion, 2024 EPS 5.03, 2025 EPS 5.61, 2025 PE 13.1, PB 2.5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances: Market Cap 261.8 billion, 2024 EPS 5.75, 2025 EPS 6.25, 2025 PE 7.5, PB 1.8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances: Market Cap 36.5 billion, 2024 EPS 2.42, 2025 EPS 2.71, 2025 PE 9.7, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Supor: Market Cap 42.0 billion, 2024 EPS 2.80, 2025 EPS 3.03, 2025 PE 17.3, PB 6.1, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Other companies such as Zhaochi Co., Juxing Technology, and Stone Technology also received a "Strongly Recommended" rating [2]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the home appliance sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 10.1%, and 30.3% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [5]. - The relative performance against the benchmark index (CSI 300) is 2.0%, 4.6%, and 14.8% for the same periods [5]. Supply Chain and Production Insights - Major appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL are primarily sourcing from Mexico and Vietnam, mitigating tariff impacts [6]. - The shift in TV imports to the US shows that Vietnam's share has increased to 36%, while China's has decreased to 5% [8]. - Companies in the smart home sector, such as Stone Technology, are also benefiting from reduced uncertainties in supply chains due to the Vietnam agreement [6]. Future Outlook - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost demand in the tools market, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9][10]. - Companies are advised to focus on production in Vietnam to meet local origin requirements and capitalize on the upcoming peak season for orders [6].

- The report introduces a multi-cycle timing strategy for interest rates, which is constructed using shape recognition algorithms to identify support and resistance lines in interest rate trends. The strategy combines signals from short, medium, and long cycles to form composite timing views. The switching frequency for these cycles is weekly, bi-weekly, and monthly, respectively[10][23][24] - The multi-cycle timing strategy is based on the principle that when at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of support lines and the interest rate trend is not upward, the portfolio is fully allocated to long-duration bonds. Conversely, when at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of resistance lines and the interest rate trend is not downward, the portfolio is fully allocated to short-duration bonds. Other configurations include mixed allocations depending on the direction of the interest rate trend[23] - The strategy employs a stop-loss mechanism where the portfolio is adjusted to equal-weighted allocation if the daily excess return falls below -0.5%[23] - The backtesting results of the multi-cycle timing strategy show a long-term annualized return of 6.17% since 2007, with a maximum drawdown of 1.52% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 2.26. Short-term results since the end of 2023 indicate an annualized return of 7.24%, a maximum drawdown of 1.55%, and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 6.21[23][24] - The strategy has consistently outperformed its benchmark, which is an equal-weighted duration strategy, with a long-term excess return of 1.65% and a short-term excess return of 2.14% since the end of 2023. The excess return-to-drawdown ratio is 1.17 for the long term and 2.29 for the short term[23][24] - Historical performance analysis reveals that the strategy achieved a 100% success rate in generating positive absolute returns and excess returns annually over the past 18 years[24] - The report also tracks the behavior of public bond funds using an improved regression model to estimate the duration and divergence of medium- to long-term pure bond funds. The latest results show that the median duration of public bond funds, including leverage, is 3.51 years, with a 4-week moving average of 3.45 years. This represents an increase of 0.13 years and 0.04 years compared to the previous week, respectively, and places the duration level at the 96.53% percentile over the past five years[6][13][14] - The divergence in public bond fund duration, measured by the cross-sectional standard deviation, is 1.55 years, which is slightly lower than the previous week and is at the 59.07% percentile over the past five years[6][14] - The yield-to-maturity (YTM) data for public bond funds, calculated similarly, shows a median YTM of 1.7%, a 4-week moving average of 1.74%, and an average of 1.79%. Compared to the previous week, the unsmoothed median YTM decreased by 4 basis points, while the smoothed data decreased by 3 basis points, indicating that institutional holdings are near historical lows[18]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 反内卷成效将影响资产风格 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面， 1）6 月末至 7 月初高频数据有三点重要变化：上游沥青开工相对 强劲，其余数据继续放缓；半钢胎开工率大幅回落，尚不确定是反内卷的成 效、还是国补退坡叠加出口放缓预期的结果；一线城市二手房挂牌量价看似有 所企稳。2）财政端基调仍然积极，若经济下行节奏过快，有能力随时进行逆 周期调节。 海外方面，1）6 月非农数据显示劳动力市场仍在温和放缓，就业数据基本打 消 7 月降息预期。2）7 月 4 日美国总统特朗普签署大漂亮法案，法案 10 年增 加 4.1 万亿美元总赤字，比此前众议院版本多增赤 1 万亿美元。其中，26-28 年财政赤字率在 7%左右（明显高于 24-25 年）。 资产端：重申"强美股+弱美元"提振非美风险偏好、改善非美流动性。1）减 税法案落地、AI 产业趋势向好、贸易谈判推进均有助于继续支撑美股。同时， 美联储即将开启降息、欧洲即将结束降息和日本延续加息周期的相对变化还是 会削弱美元指数走势。2）回到国内， "强美股+弱美元"组合下，继续看多 国内权益资产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) both domestically and internationally, with a focus on the integration of these innovations into traditional finance, suggesting a potential global financial innovation cycle [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the continuous progress in the unmanned logistics sector, particularly through JD Logistics' introduction of self-developed unmanned vehicles and drones, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs significantly [19][21]. - The AI industry is witnessing ongoing developments, particularly in large model applications, with notable advancements from companies like Baidu and Microsoft, indicating a robust growth trajectory in AI-driven solutions across various sectors [23][24]. Summary by Sections RWA and Stablecoin Developments - The report details the launch of stock tokenization services by Robinhood and other platforms, allowing for trading of over 200 US stocks and ETFs with features like zero commission and low trading thresholds [9][11]. - Domestic interest in offshore RMB stablecoins is rising, with companies like JD and Ant Group advocating for regulatory approval to enhance RMB internationalization [14][15]. Unmanned Logistics Updates - JD Logistics has unveiled its self-developed unmanned light truck, capable of a 400 km range and L4 autonomous driving, which can reduce logistics costs by approximately 60% [19][21]. - The report also discusses the launch of JD's intelligent delivery vehicles and drones, designed for various logistics applications, showcasing significant technological advancements in the sector [21][22]. AI Industry Chain Updates - Baidu's release of the ERNIE 4.5 series models marks a significant step in AI model development, with open-source capabilities enhancing accessibility for developers [23]. - Microsoft's AI diagnostic tool demonstrates a fourfold improvement in disease diagnosis accuracy compared to human doctors, indicating the transformative potential of AI in healthcare [24]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.28% in the first week of July 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Xuanji Information and ST Saiwei [29][30].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the metal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains complex, with a strong US dollar putting pressure on metal prices. However, the second half of the year is expected to see a transition into a global easing phase, benefiting metal prices [1]. - Gold prices have recently adjusted, but the long-term bullish logic remains intact. Resource stocks are generally undervalued, and there is optimism for commodity prices in the long term [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with good growth potential, as well as those related to self-sufficiency and emerging technologies such as robotics and controlled nuclear fusion [1]. Industry Overview - The metal industry has a total of 235 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,334.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 4,029.6 billion [2]. - The performance of the metal industry index shows a 10.0% increase over one month, 19.5% over six months, and 36.4% over twelve months, indicating strong growth [4]. Specific Metal Insights - Copper: As of July 3, copper inventory in major regions increased by 0.17 thousand tons to 131.8 thousand tons, which is significantly lower than the 409.8 thousand tons from the previous year. The report anticipates a strong copper market in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to macroeconomic factors [6]. - Aluminum: The report notes weak demand for aluminum, with a significant increase in inventory. However, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive [7]. - Rare Earths: Prices for rare earth elements such as terbium and dysprosium have shown slight increases, with expectations for improved demand as traditional peak seasons approach [8]. Stock Performance - The report highlights the best-performing stock of the week as Fuda Alloy, which saw a 13.04% increase, while the worst performer was Xinbo Co., which experienced a 7.98% decline [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].