1）特朗普心中可能有一个综合税率底线。4 月上旬特朗普一系列关税政 策变化表明 10%的全球税率可能是当时心中的底线，该底线与贸易平衡有 关，但更多是为了弥补财政收入。4-6 月美国关税收入超 600 亿美元，而 1-3 月仅 288 亿美元，若按 4-6 月线性外推美国今年全年关税收入可能在 2000~3000 亿美元。但 7 月 4 日通过的 OBBBA 给出"10 年 3.4 万亿美 元、26-28 年 1.6 万亿美元"基础赤字需求，对关税维持财政运转提出更 高要求，10%底线关税税率可能会适度上调。 2）关税既是目的也是手段，贸易平衡和保护特定产业两手都要抓。本次 对等关税独立于行业关税，232 调查下的多数行业要么是钢铝、汽车等基 础行业（稳就业、票仓），要么是半导体、药品、关键矿物等重要行业 （产业链安全、制造业回流），从过去几轮行业关税实施情况看，下调概 率较小且只可能对部分盟友国或贸易协定国家给予优惠，表明保护特定产 业优先级很高。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 关税新阶段 —7 月 7 日美国新关税政策点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 7 月 7 日，特 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" campaign aimed at improving overall profitability, particularly in the cement sector, where demand is currently suppressed due to high temperatures and rainy weather [1][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, with a year-on-year growth of 33.3%, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence among real estate enterprises [6][13]. - Price adjustments in the waterproofing materials sector are noted, with leading companies implementing price increases of 1% to 13% across various product categories, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the consumer building materials market [6][13]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national average cement price has continued to decline, with a drop of 10-15 CNY/ton in certain regions, while some areas like Jilin and Chongqing have seen price increases of 30-50 CNY/ton [10][22]. - The cement market is under pressure with a current inventory ratio of 76.00%, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [10][22]. - The China Cement Association has initiated measures to address supply-demand imbalances, which are expected to enhance overall industry profitability [10][11]. Float Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing weak price performance, with a national average price of 1174 CNY/ton, down 3.27 CNY/ton from the previous period [11]. - Inventory levels have decreased slightly, with a total of 6.9085 million heavy boxes reported, and production has increased to 110.34 million tons [11][12]. - Despite some replenishment activities in the downstream market, overall demand remains limited, leading to expectations of continued price weakness [11][12]. Fiberglass Industry - The market for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with prices around 3700 CNY/ton for high-end products, while electronic fiberglass prices are expected to rise due to tight supply [12]. - The main product G75 in the electronic fiberglass market is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, showing stability compared to the previous week [12]. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the trend of price increases among leading companies in the waterproofing sector, which is seen as a positive sign for the industry's competitive landscape [6][13]. - Recommendations for investment include companies like Weixing New Materials, Keda Manufacturing, and Mona Lisa, which are positioned well for growth in the current market environment [14][15][16].

招证银行金融数据前瞻 6 月社融货币预测 总量研究/银行 2025 年 6 月，我们预期当月全口径人民币贷款增量 1.80 万亿（同比少增 0.33 万亿元），其中社融口径信贷增量 1.80 万亿（同比少增 0.39 万亿元）。预期 当月社融增量 3.61 万亿，同比多增 0.31 万亿；其中政府债增量 1.40 万亿元， 同比多增 0.55 万亿元。预期社融余额增速 8.7%，环比上月回升 0.02pct；预期 新口径 M1 增速 2.5%，环比上月回升 0.22pct；M2 增速 8.3%，环比上月回升 0.44pct。 ❑ 风险提示：金融让利，息差收窄；经济恢复不及预期，资产质量恶化等。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11334.5 | 12.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10731.4 | 13.1 | 文雪阳 S1090524110001 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.3 22.5 ...

Market Style Outlook - The market style in July is expected to be predominantly large-cap, with growth and value styles being relatively balanced. Historical data shows that in the past decade, July has seen a relatively balanced market style, with large-cap slightly favored [2][12][13] - External liquidity factors, including upcoming inflation and employment data from the US, may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potentially causing short-term market disturbances [2][21][24] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of utilizing existing policies and implementing new measures to enhance market liquidity, which is expected to remain relatively loose [2][26][27] Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - In July, incremental capital is anticipated to flow in moderately, with financing funds likely to continue net inflows. The PBOC has shown a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, and the overall funding environment is expected to remain loose [3][30][32] - The private equity fund market has expanded significantly, with the total management scale reaching 5.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. This growth is attributed to a notable profit effect, attracting high-net-worth individuals to invest [30][31] Market Sentiment and Capital Preference - Market sentiment improved in June, with major indices showing increased trading volume and turnover rates. The valuation and trading concentration of large-cap growth and the CSI 300 index are at relatively low historical levels [4][39] - The performance of various sectors in June was influenced by geopolitical tensions, with industries such as oil and petrochemicals, precious metals, and military-related sectors seeing significant gains [4][39][40] Major Asset Performance Review - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with US and European markets outperforming A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. The A-share market showed a "N" shaped recovery in June, with growth styles leading the performance [36][39] - In the commodity market, silver prices surged significantly, while industrial metals also saw widespread price increases due to favorable developments in trade negotiations and low inventory levels [36][39] Key Events and Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the July Politburo meeting and the deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" negotiations, which could impact market expectations and economic stability [45][48]

半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 进入 25Q2 以来，海外对国内半导体先进制程代工、算力芯片等出口管制仍趋 严，但在此背景下国内先进制程产能和良率持续提升，国内沐曦和摩尔线程招 股书均强调国内先进代工、HBM 和 2.5D 封装等供应链自主可控提速，部分半 导体设备/材料等厂商 25Q2 签单和业绩增长趋势向好。同时，国内半导体其他 环节如存储/模拟/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖，部分 SoC 厂商指引下游需 求依然旺盛。建议关注国内自主可控提速的半导体代工/设备/材料/零部件/算力 芯片等领域、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块， 同时建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链相对稳定 PC 链环比仍有提升，功率类库存望达周期峰值。 全球手机链芯片大厂 25Q1 库存环比微降/库存周转天数环比提升，PC 链芯片 厂商 25Q1 库存环比微增/库存周转天数环比下降，英特尔表示整个行业都采 取了更为保守的库存策略，AMD 表示游戏厂商启动库存补货周期。全球模拟 芯片厂商库存 25Q1 环比仍有增长，TI 表示所有终端客户库存处于低位。功 率类芯片公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce and retail sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [19][21]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index increased by 0.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.54%) and the ChiNext Index (up 1.50%) [5][7]. - Taobao Flash Sale launched a subsidy program of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a 140% increase in business for small and medium-sized restaurant merchants [27]. - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail surpassed 120 million, with restaurant orders exceeding 100 million [28]. - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost the tourism sector, with strong demand for short-distance self-driving and family trips [5][19]. Industry Overview Restaurant and Tourism Sector - The top five stocks in the restaurant and tourism sector this week were ST Zhangjiajie (+2.58%), Qujiang Cultural Tourism (+2.17%), and Quanjude (+1.80%) [10]. - The overall performance of the restaurant and tourism sector has shown a decline of 1.09% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector is perceived to be overly pessimistic, with expectations for profit stability and valuation recovery [19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, recommending them for investment [19][21]. Retail Sector - The report emphasizes the positive adjustments in Yonghui's strategy, focusing on quality retail trends and consumer trust [21]. - The retail sector is expected to see sustainable same-store growth due to improved service and product selection [21]. Key Company Recommendations - Meituan is expected to maintain its long-term competitiveness despite short-term competitive pressures in the food delivery market [21]. - Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [21]. - Ctrip Group's performance is projected to continue improving, particularly in international markets [22]. Major News - Luckin Coffee has re-entered the U.S. market with two new stores in Manhattan, targeting students and tourists [26]. - Taobao Flash Sale's subsidy program has significantly boosted sales across various food categories [27]. - Meituan has implemented a pilot program for rider pension insurance subsidies in several cities [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the continuous policy support has driven the expansion of the science - innovation bond market, and the science - innovation bond ETF has been quickly launched. The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs are scheduled to be issued on July 7, 2025 [1][2][11][13]. - The first - batch science - innovation bond ETFs track three major indices: the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index. These indices have different characteristics in terms of return - risk, remaining maturity, weighted duration, bond rating, issuer industry, remaining face value, and collateral ratio [3]. - The expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs brings investment opportunities. Institutions have started to increase their allocation of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds. Three types of potentially beneficial targets can be pre - arranged: targets that are both science - innovation bond index constituent bonds and exchange benchmark market - making varieties, science - innovation bond targets with remaining excess spread protection, and targets with a remaining maturity of 3 - 4 years [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Science - Innovation Bond ETF Launch Background - In 2025, policies on science - innovation bonds were continuously strengthened. In March, the central bank governor proposed to build a "science and technology board" in the bond market. In May, relevant policies were introduced to support the issuance of science - innovation bonds, including expanding the issuer scope, encouraging the creation of science - innovation bond ETFs, and improving the risk - sharing mechanism [12][13]. - Since the new policy was issued, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds has exceeded 620 billion yuan, and the outstanding scale has reached 2.5 trillion yuan, providing sufficient underlying assets for science - innovation bond ETFs [2]. - The issuers of new science - innovation bonds are mainly central and local state - owned enterprises, with a relatively high proportion of financial enterprises. In terms of industry, they are mainly concentrated in the banking and building decoration industries [17]. 3.2 Science - Innovation Bond ETF Issuance Overview and Index Comparison 3.2.1 First - Batch Science - Innovation Bond ETFs and Index Products - As of July 6, 2025, 10 fund companies plan to issue science - innovation bond ETFs on July 7, 2025. Six companies' ETFs track the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, three track the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index, and only Invesco Great Wall's ETF tracks the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [22]. - Thirteen fund companies have reported science - innovation bond index funds (non - ETFs), all of which are benchmarked against the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [24]. 3.2.2 Science - Innovation Bond Index System - Currently, the China Securities Index Company and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have issued science - innovation bond indices. The China Securities Index Company has issued two series: the CSI Science - Innovation Bond Index series and the Shanghai Science - Innovation Bond Index series. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued the Shenzhen Science - Innovation Bond Index [26]. 3.2.3 Main Index Comparison - In terms of index compilation methods, there are differences in the base period, sample space, sampling method, and weighting method among the three indices [30]. - In terms of cumulative returns from December 30, 2022, to July 3, 2025, the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had relatively high and similar returns, while the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had relatively lower returns [31]. - In different stages, the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had better return performance, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index had the lowest annualized volatility, the lowest maximum drawdown, and the highest return - risk ratio in the whole period [34]. - The remaining maturity distributions of the three indices are concentrated in 1 - 5 years, with a small amount of weight in 0 - 1 year and 7 - 10 years. The Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a relatively shorter remaining maturity [35]. - The Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has the highest weighted duration, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has the lowest, which may be part of the reason for the return differences among the indices [36]. - The AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index have a higher proportion of high - rated constituent bonds than the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index [39]. - The constituents of the AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index and the Shanghai AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index are mainly distributed in the construction industry, while those of the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index are mainly in the comprehensive and manufacturing industries [43]. - The issuers of the three indices' constituent bonds are mainly central and local state - owned enterprises. The Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index allocates nearly 5% of public enterprise bonds [46]. - The remaining face values of the three indices' constituent bonds are concentrated between 500 million yuan and 2 billion yuan, and the distribution of the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index is more dispersed [48]. - The collateral ratios of the three indices' constituent bonds are generally distributed between 80% and 100%, and the Shenzhen AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index has a more concentrated weight in the 70% - 90% range [48]. 3.3 Investment Opportunities in Bonds Brought by Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - Since mid - June, the excess spread of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds has significantly compressed, and there has been a valuation deviation between constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds of the same issuer. The turnover rate of science - innovation bond index constituent bonds has significantly increased, indicating that institutions have started to increase their allocation [5][51][56][57]. - Considering the future expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs, three types of potentially beneficial targets can be pre - arranged: targets that are both science - innovation bond index constituent bonds and exchange benchmark market - making varieties, science - innovation bond targets with remaining positive excess spread, and targets with a remaining maturity of 3 - 4 years [5][61][62].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 各国关税谈判进展如何？ ——政策专题（0707） 随着特朗普政府设定的关键期限临近，全球主要经济体正与美国进行高强度关 税谈判。从各国谈判情况来看，英国、越南已与美国达成协议；印度、柬埔寨、 欧盟预期将与美国达成框架协议/小型协议并在关键期限后进一步谈判；印尼、 泰国、马来西亚仍与美国积极谈判中；日本、韩国谈判进展相对缓慢。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《整治"内卷式"竞争政策 组合的回顾与展望———政策 专题（0701）》2025-07-02 2、《历史上，我国出台过哪些 促消费政策？———扩内需政 策研究专题（一）》2025-04-07 3、《历史上的财税体制改革回 顾——政策专题》2024-06-03 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 已达成协议：英国是最早与美国达成协议的国家。5 月 8 日，英国与美国宣 布达成贸易协议，即美英经济繁荣协议（EPD）。6 月 16 日，特朗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in isobutyraldehyde and TDI, suggesting potential high growth in Q2 performance for specific companies [4]. - The overall chemical sector saw a 0.80% increase in the first week of July, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [13]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 24.98 times, which is lower than the average PE of 33.31 times since 2015 [13]. Industry Performance - In the first week of July, 24 sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced growth, with the top five performers being fiberglass (+17%), compound fertilizers (+3.2%), other plastic products (+3.08%), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (+2.97%), and tires (+2.66%) [17]. - Conversely, seven sub-industries declined, with synthetic leather (-4%), petroleum trading (-2.19%), inorganic salts (-1.91%), petroleum processing (-0.57%), and textile chemicals (-0.54%) being the worst performers [17]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: dichloropropane-white (+8.82%), isobutyraldehyde (+7.2%), TDI (+7.02%), butanone (+6.39%), and sulfur iron ore (+3.82%) [23]. - The top five products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (-86.51%), aniline (-7.67%), acetone (-6.69%), propylene oxide (-6.53%), and niacinamide (-6.35%) [23]. - Among the 75 products analyzed for price spreads, the top five with the highest increases were DMF spread (+24.73%), soft foam polyether spread (+21.54%), acetone hydrogenation isopropanol spread (+17.26%), polybutadiene rubber spread (+16.69%), and hard foam polyether spread (+14.62%) [42]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament increasing by 36.09%, while other notable changes included a decrease in the inventory of chlorpyrifos (-19.05%) and an increase in ethylene glycol (+15.61%) [60]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies expected to see substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2, specifically mentioning Zhongchumai, Sully Co., and Haigong Coatings, as well as Guangxin Materials, which is anticipated to pass certification [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average land acquisition price in sample cities has increased year-on-year, with a notable expansion in the growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a year-on-year decline, with the decline in new housing transactions expanding significantly [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in demand for new and second-hand homes due to anticipated decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - As of July 3, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions in sample cities is -34%, which is a worsening of 21 percentage points compared to June [3]. - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -41%, while second-tier cities have a decline of -19% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions is -9%, with a worsening of 5 percentage points compared to June [3]. - First-tier cities have experienced a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a more challenging market environment [3]. Land Acquisition Trends - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [23]. - The report notes that the land premium rate has decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential cooling in land market speculation [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate market stability remains a key policy goal, with a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies [5]. - The anticipated recovery in the housing market is expected to be driven by a combination of supply reduction, improved quality of supply, and significant differentiation in buyer profiles [5].