1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, with different outlooks for each. Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range oscillations; silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to the upward shift of overseas miners' quotes; coke is expected to be oscillating strongly after the third price increase; coking coal is expected to be oscillating strongly due to strengthened supply policy expectations; thermal coal is expected to stabilize after the daily consumption recovers; and logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 811.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The previous day's position was 562,835 lots, a decrease of 17,104 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 1.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,294 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.34%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.35%. In terms of spot prices, some regions' prices increased, while others remained unchanged or decreased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar increased by 2.9 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.22 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.62 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 2.25 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.16 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 10.41 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 8.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.98 tons. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment draft [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: For silicon iron 2509, the closing price was 5754 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2509, the closing price was 5948 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Among spot prices, silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17: Inner Mongolia decreased by 70.0 yuan/ton, and manganese ore: Mn44 block decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon manganese price at 5800 yuan/ton. The export volume of manganese ore from Australia's Port Hedland in June 2025 increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, but the total export volume in the first half of the year decreased compared to the same period in 2024. South32's September 2025 quotes for South African semi - carbonate blocks and Australian blocks increased compared to the previous month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1198.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.55%. For coke J2509, the closing price was 1735 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.61%. Among spot prices, some coking coal and coke prices increased [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 24 showed price changes. In terms of positions, on July 24, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 44,538 lots, and short positions increased by 26,271 lots. For the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 907 lots, and short positions increased by 164 lots [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [17]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's trading of the thermal coal ZC2507 contract had no transactions. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of southern port's imported thermal coal and domestic thermal coal in production areas were reported. On July 24, for the thermal coal ZC2507 contract, long positions decreased by 0 lots, and short positions decreased by 0 lots [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts on different days were reported, along with price changes of various log and wood - square spot markets [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the ferroalloy futures market, particularly focusing on manganese silicon and silicon iron, during the first half of 2024, highlighting the driving factors behind these price movements and the subsequent market corrections. Group 1: Price Movements - Manganese silicon prices surged from a low of 6108 CNY/ton to a high of 9786 CNY/ton, marking a two-year peak due to supply disruptions caused by a cyclone affecting South32's operations [2] - Silicon iron prices increased from a minimum of 6402 CNY/ton to 8234 CNY/ton, with a significant daily limit increase at the end of May [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Supply shock from South32's disruption led to panic in the market, prompting smelters to stockpile, which created a positive feedback loop of rising costs and prices [4] - The release of the "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" in late May triggered market speculation reminiscent of the 2021 "dual control of energy consumption" policy, further boosting market sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Characteristics - Trading volumes for manganese silicon and silicon iron futures reached record highs, with 3.16 million and 2.27 million contracts traded in a single day, respectively, indicating significant market activity [12] - The futures market exhibited a premium over the spot market, encouraging alloy producers to increase output, resulting in a 15% month-on-month rise in manganese silicon production from April to May [13] - Despite the price increases, the actual manganese ore supply gap was limited, with only a 10% shortfall in total imports, indicating that the price surge was driven more by market sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics [14] Group 4: Market Correction - In June, regulatory measures such as position limits and increased transaction fees were introduced to curb excessive speculation [16] - The supply of manganese ore improved with increased arrivals from South Africa and Gabon, leading to a rise in port inventories to 6.5 million tons, a 20% year-on-year increase [17] - Demand weakened as steel mills reduced production due to losses, causing manganese silicon prices to decline sharply from their late May highs back to around 5900 CNY/ton by September [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, with a tendency for a bullish and volatile market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of contracts SF2508 and SF2509 are 5,652 and 5,668 respectively, up 162 and 160 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 6,857 and 307,634, and open interests of 8,912 and 193,447. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of contracts SM2508 and SM2509 are 5,906 and 5,914 respectively, up 110 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 1,330 and 390,134, and open interests of 11,185 and 360,025 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 352 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 254 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 246 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton (+100), in Ningxia is 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+75), in Qinghai is 5,250 - 5,300 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (up 100), and in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+100). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1,000 - 1,020 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1,080 - 1,110 US dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,780 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 500 tons. A steel mill in Jiangsu has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,900 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a procurement quantity of 1,000 tons; a steel mill in Jiangxi has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,830 yuan/ton in discounted base acceptance and tax - included, with a procurement quantity of 4,000 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Import Data**: In June 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 268.38 million tons, a decrease of 25.95 million tons (↓8.82%) compared with 294.33 million tons in May, and an increase of 54.01 million tons (↑25.19%) compared with 214.37 million tons in June last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative manganese ore import volume was 1,444.49 million tons, an increase of 45.44 million tons (↑3.25%) compared with 1,399.05 million tons in the same period in 2024. In June 2025, the top five manganese ore importing countries were South Africa (158.31 million tons), Ghana (46.02 million tons), Australia (22.43 million tons), Gabon (19.08 million tons), and Brazil (7.66 million tons), accounting for 94.46% of the total import volume [4]. - **Manganese Ore Production and Sales Data**: South32's 2025 fiscal year fourth - quarter report shows that the cumulative production of Australian manganese ore in the 2025 fiscal year was 1.106 billion tons, completing 111% of the annual plan; the cumulative production of South African manganese ore was 2.151 billion tons, completing 108% of the annual plan. In the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, the production of Australian manganese ore was 467 million tons, and the sales volume was 253 million tons. The production guidance for Australian manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year is 3.2 billion tons. The South African manganese ore production was 593 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous quarter and an 11% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 601 million tons, a 48% increase from the previous quarter and a 9% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for South African manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 2 billion tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [3].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a year-on-year increase in alumina production by 0.4% to 1.27 million tons and a 3.7% growth in electrolytic aluminum production to 309,000 tons in Q2 2025 [1] - The Worsley alumina production for Q2 2025 was 936,000 tons, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the annual production for FY2025 is projected at 3.727 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous year [1] - Brazilian alumina production remained stable at 334,000 tons in Q2 2025, with an annual production increase of 4% to 1.34 million tons [2] - Brazilian electrolytic aluminum production surged by 36% year-on-year to 38,000 tons in Q2 2025, with an annual production of 138,000 tons, reflecting a 33% increase [3] - Hillside electrolytic aluminum production for Q2 2025 was 181,000 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year, while annual production remained stable at 718,000 tons [4] Production and Sales Summary - Worsley alumina sales in Q2 2025 reached 1 million tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, while annual sales were 3.699 million tons, a 2% decrease [1] - Brazilian alumina sales in Q2 2025 were 335,000 tons, a 6% decrease year-on-year, with annual sales of 1.349 million tons, a 5% increase [2] - Brazilian electrolytic aluminum sales in Q2 2025 were 46,000 tons, a 53% increase year-on-year, with annual sales matching production at 138,000 tons [3] - Hillside electrolytic aluminum sales in Q2 2025 were 194,000 tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, with annual sales of 732,000 tons, a 2% increase [4] - Mozal electrolytic aluminum production in Q2 2025 was 90,000 tons, a 17% increase year-on-year, with annual production of 355,000 tons, a 13% increase [9] Cost and Operational Efficiency - The report indicates that the operating unit costs for FY2025 are expected to align with guidance due to strong operational performance and ongoing cost efficiency measures [16] - Specific cost expectations for various operations include Worsley alumina at $305 per ton and Brazil aluminum at approximately 5% below H1 FY2025 [23] Development Projects Update - The Hermosa project saw an investment of $517 million in growth capital expenditures for FY2025, focusing on the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project and Clark battery-grade manganese exploration [17] - The report notes that the environmental impact report for the Hermosa project is a significant milestone, with the final report expected in the second half of FY2026 [19] - Greenfield exploration investments for FY2025 totaled $35 million, targeting multiple base metal exploration projects [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Core Viewpoint - Trilogy Metals Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter ended May 31, 2025, highlighting a net loss and ongoing corporate activities, including the establishment of a Base Shelf Prospectus and an ATM Program for future capital raising [1][5][12]. Financial Results - For the three-month period ended May 31, 2025, the company reported a net loss of $2.2 million, an increase from a net loss of $1.8 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to higher regulatory expenses and legal fees [8][9]. - For the six-month period ended May 31, 2025, the net loss was $5.8 million, compared to $5.4 million for the same period in 2024, driven by increased regulatory expenses and legal fees [9]. Corporate Activities - The Annual General Meeting (AGM) was held on May 13, 2025, where all nominated directors were elected with over 94% of votes in favor [2]. - The company established a Base Shelf Prospectus allowing for the future issuance of up to $50 million in securities and an ATM Program for selling up to $25 million in common shares [3][4]. Liquidity and Capital Resources - As of May 31, 2025, the company had cash on hand of $24.6 million and working capital of $23.8 million, sufficient to fund its approved fiscal 2025 cash budget of $3.1 million [11][12]. - The company utilized $1.4 million for operating activities during the six-month period, mainly for corporate salaries and professional fees [10]. Shareholder Engagement - The shareholders voted in favor of continuing the company's Restricted Share Unit Plan and Deferred Share Unit Plan during the AGM [2]. Exploration and Development - Trilogy Metals holds a 50% interest in Ambler Metals LLC, which has a 100% interest in the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects in Alaska, focusing on copper-dominant mineral exploration [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global primary nickel supply will continue to increase, with an overall surplus, and the nickel price center will shift downward. The lower limit of the nickel price will approach the MHP integrated cost, and the upper limit will approach the RKEF nickel matte integrated cost. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will trade between 110,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [6][12][13]. - The demand growth rate of stainless steel has declined, mainly due to the suppression of overseas tariff barriers on the production and sales of stainless steel end - products. The supply side has full elasticity, the over - capacity contradiction remains unchanged, and the cost reduction opens up the downward space for stainless steel. It is estimated that the stainless steel will oscillate between 12,200 - 13,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Persistent Excess Pattern of Primary Nickel - **Global Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Persistent Excess Situation** - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The consumption in the stainless steel and alloy industries had a relatively high growth rate. There was a slight inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. - For the second half of 2025, both supply and demand are expected to grow. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is expected to be 150,000 tons [30]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Still in Excess** - In the first half of 2025, China's primary nickel total supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with inventory accumulation of 120,000 tons. - In 2025, it is expected to maintain a double - growth in supply and demand. The annual primary nickel total supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [33][34]. 2. Primary Nickel Supply - **Collision between Traditional and Emerging Nickel Supply** - Since 2022, some high - cost nickel mines globally have reduced or stopped production, with a total reduction capacity of 360,000 tons of metal. In 2024, there were many reduction and shutdown projects in Australia and other regions. - The main variables in global primary nickel supply come from emerging nickel suppliers. Indonesia's nickel - iron new capacity is the largest part of the global primary nickel supply increment, and intermediate products such as wet - process MHP and high - grade nickel matte have a direct impact on refined nickel supply and demand [37][38][39]. - **Gradual Growth of Nickel Intermediate Product Supply** - In 2024, some new nickel wet - process and high - ice nickel capacities were put into production, and there are still more than 500,000 tons of wet - process under - construction and planned capacities. However, the actual production situation needs continuous tracking due to uncertainties in wet - process capacity production and the decline in the market share of ternary batteries [45]. - **China's Refined Nickel Production Remains at a High Level** - From January to May 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative production was 175,834 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.91%. The import and export volume of refined nickel also increased significantly [59]. 3. Refined Nickel Consumption - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel's Consumption of Pure Nickel Remains Almost Zero** - Due to the large losses in the self - dissolution of nickel beans into sulfuric acid nickel in recent years, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector has declined rapidly, and currently, nickel beans are basically not used to produce sulfuric acid nickel [67]. - **Growth in Electroplating and Stainless Steel Industries** - The downstream consumption of refined nickel is mainly concentrated in alloy, stainless steel, and electroplating industries, with alloy consumption accounting for about 55%, stainless steel about 20%, and electroplating about 15%. The consumption of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel, electroplating, and alloy industries increased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and it is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year [10][68][71]. 4. Stainless Steel Sector - **Stainless Steel Capacity Statistics** - In 2025, China plans to add about 5.56 million tons of new stainless steel capacity, and Indonesia plans to add 1 million tons. However, due to many influencing factors and poor industry profit conditions, the future production progress is expected to be relatively slow [80]. - **Stainless Steel Production Statistics** - As of June 2025, the cumulative production of national stainless steel crude steel was 19.8466 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. It is expected that the annual production of stainless steel crude steel will be about 41.5 million tons [85]. - **Stainless Steel Import and Export Data Statistics** - From January to May 2025, China's stainless steel imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year. The net export volume increased significantly. The import decline was mainly due to the reduction of cold - rolled coil imports from Indonesia, and the export decline in May was mainly affected by the uncertainty of global tariff policies [98]. - **Analysis of Stainless Steel Terminal Industry Consumption** - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main consumption boost factor [104]. - **Statistics of Stainless Steel Profit Level** - As of early July 2025, the profit level of the stainless steel industry was low, and most enterprises faced great cost pressure [127]. - **Difficulty in Changing the Excess Supply - Demand Pattern of Stainless Steel** - Since 2022, the supply and demand of stainless steel have been in a state of excess. The subsequent production of stainless steel capacity to be put into production may not meet expectations, and the actual demand may be less than expected due to the uncertainty of global trade [133]. 5. Nickel - Stainless Steel Industry Chain Inventory - **Continuous Increase in Refined Nickel Inventory** - From December 27, 2024, to June 27, 2025, the global refined nickel visible inventory increased by 32,099 tons to 240,885 tons, and part of the inventory was converted into invisible inventory [11][134]. - **Relatively Stable Nickel - Iron Inventory** - Affected by the seasonality of Philippine nickel ore exports, China's nickel ore port inventory is at a medium level in the same period of history, and the nickel - iron spot inventory is at a relatively high position compared with the same period last year [139]. - **Summary of Stainless Steel Social Inventory and Futures Warehouse Receipt Data** - As of July 3, 2025, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel may remain at a high level in the third quarter and gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. The futures warehouse receipt decreased after reaching the highest level in March - early April, and the overall stainless steel inventory pressure still exists [141][142].

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's 08 contract rose slightly by 0.31%. The Iran - IAEA cooperation is suspended, and the Iran - US negotiation has no definite news. In the third - quarter peak season, the global oil inventory accumulation will narrow, but the loose situation is hard to change fundamentally under OPEC+ production increase pressure. Crude oil will run weakly with short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold continued to adjust overnight, and silver was strong following non - ferrous metals. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, market risk appetite improved. Market focus will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [2]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. Overseas investment banks emphasized high import tariffs on copper. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations in July, and the Fed's July interest - rate cut rhythm is also a focus. Short - term, Shanghai copper may rise to 81,000 yuan, and long - term, high - level short - allocation is recommended [3]. - Aluminum followed non - ferrous metals and was strong. Macro risk appetite improved, but the industrial level weakened slightly. The market has large differences, and short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread can be concerned [4]. - Alumina spot transactions were few. The northern spot index fell below 3,100 yuan, and overseas transactions rose slightly to $380. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy rose slightly following aluminum. The price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 expands, a long - AD and short - AL strategy can be considered [6]. - Zinc prices strengthened due to a strike at a zinc smelter, but the domestic zinc smelting capacity is still in surplus. It is advisable to seize short - allocation opportunities in the range of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel rebounded sharply. The impact of the loading progress of Philippine nickel mines on supply is limited, but the pressure on the mine end increases. Nickel iron inventory increased, and pure nickel inventory decreased. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Tin prices rose. Overseas tin inventory decreased, and the domestic tin raw material supply is strong. Technically, it is advisable to participate in short - selling of far - month contracts in the range of 272,000 - 273,000 yuan [10]. Group 3: Chemicals - Lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded. The mentality of traders changed positively, and the bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The decline rate of Australian ore prices slowed down. Short - term, it will fluctuate [11]. - Industrial silicon futures prices rose and then fell. The market was affected by rumors of factory shutdowns and the rise of coking coal prices. The demand has marginal growth, and the upward space is limited [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded from a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair near the key position of 30,000 yuan [13]. - Fuel oil (FU) was weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by high cracking valuations, while the cracking of LU rebounded from a low level [21]. - Asphalt supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The market is relatively strong [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has a relatively strong demand in the short - term, but the supply pressure is increasing. The market will fluctuate after the geopolitical impact fades [23]. - Urea's agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, but there is still some rigid demand. The export policy is relaxed, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [24]. - Methanol's import supply reduction expectation failed, but the port inventory decreased significantly. The market will sort out in the short - term [25]. - PVC cost increased, and the supply is still high. The demand is weak, and the long - term price will fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda is strong at night, but the long - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - PX and PTA were boosted by the rebound of oil prices but are expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the basis and monthly spread may be under pressure [27]. - Ethylene glycol prices fell and then slowed down. The supply disturbance weakened, and the demand is expected to decline. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [28]. - Short - fiber inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is improving, but the profit is weakening. Bottle - chip inventory increased, and the processing margin is weakening. A parking plan in July may help repair the margin, but it should be treated with caution [29]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices strengthened at night. The demand for rebar is stable, and the inventory decline slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil decreases, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The market will fluctuate, and the terminal demand and policies should be concerned [14]. - Iron ore prices rose overnight. The supply is under increasing pressure, and the demand has some resilience. The market is expected to fluctuate [15]. - Coke prices rose significantly. The market has expectations of a price increase. The inventory decreased, and the price may have an upward driving force [16]. - Coking coal prices rose significantly. The policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory decreased. The price may fluctuate strongly [17]. - Manganese silicon price volatility increased. The inventory decreased, and the production began to rise. Short - term, it is bullish [18]. - Silicon iron prices fluctuated upward. The demand is acceptable, and the supply decreased. The inventory decreased, and short - term, it is bullish [19]. Group 5: Shipping - The spot market of the container shipping index (European line) has no clear positive news. The far - month market may be affected by the resumption of shipping expectations after the easing of the Middle East situation [20]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: Soybean meal futures fell 0.37% overnight. The drought in the US soybean - producing areas improved. The domestic spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The market will fluctuate before the planting area report [33]. - Soybean oil and palm oil: US soybeans are weak. The biodiesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oil at low prices, and short - term, wait for the planting area report [34]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and the new - crop has weather uncertainties. The inventory in East China is abundant, and the demand is not good. Short - term, it is advisable to shift from bearish to waiting and seeing [35]. - Domestic soybeans fell. US soybeans are weak, and the domestic supply is supplemented by auctions. Short - term, pay attention to the US soybean planting area report [36]. - Corn futures fluctuated weakly. The spot market has no major contradictions. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase. The inventory situation varies, and the market will fluctuate [37]. - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly, but the far - month contracts are weak. The short - term rebound space is limited, and long - term, pay attention to the inflection point of production capacity [38]. - Egg futures prices fluctuated downward. The supply capacity is still being released, and the old - hen culling is insufficient. Long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [39]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rose. The domestic cotton demand is weak, but the inventory is tight. It is advisable to buy at low prices [40]. - Sugar prices: US sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian policy is positive for sugar prices. The domestic sugar import is low, and the inventory pressure is light. The market will fluctuate [41]. - Apple prices fluctuated. The market demand decreased, and the focus is on the new - season output forecast. The output is expected to be bearish, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish strategy [42]. - Wood prices fluctuated. The supply from New Zealand will remain low, but the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. The suspension of the delivery of a futures brand has limited impact. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and the demand is weak. It will fluctuate weakly [44]. Group 7: Financial Products - Stock index: A - shares fluctuated lower, and index futures contracts fell slightly. The external market rose overnight. The market risk appetite improved, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [45]. - Treasury bonds: Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The central bank increased net investment to help liquidity cross the season smoothly. The bond market trading is dull, and short - term, pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [46].