Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, indicating the gradual initiation of a year-end rally, with global risk assets recovering amid easing liquidity tightening expectations [3][12] - The market is shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of themes, including domestic demand, price increase chains, and new industrial themes like commercial aerospace [3][12] - The current market rally is characterized by industry rotation and the emergence of new investment themes for 2026, driven by the interplay between AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [3][12] Group 2 - Recent price increases across various industries have become a focal point, with raw material price hikes being a primary driver, leading to passive price increases in many sectors [4][17] - The effects of anti-involution policies are becoming evident, as some companies opt for voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order amid rising upstream costs and downstream price pressures [4][17] - The sustainability of price increases varies by sector, with strong demand in some areas like lithium battery and wafer manufacturing, while sectors with weaker demand, such as titanium dioxide, may face challenges in sustaining price hikes [4][24] Group 3 - A new cycle of RMB appreciation is emerging, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with medium-term support from improved China-U.S. relations and resilient export performance [5][33] - Historical trends indicate that during RMB appreciation periods, companies with high overseas exposure often experience a temporary increase in sales margins, followed by a decline, suggesting a complex relationship between currency strength and export competitiveness [5][34] - The current RMB appreciation is expected to alleviate cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, and lithium batteries [5][40] Group 4 - The new investment themes for 2026 are beginning to manifest across commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [6][12] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment export chains with global comparative advantages, and consumer sectors benefiting from inbound recovery and rising household income [6][12]

Group 1 - The market is no longer focused on a single narrative, with new investment themes emerging as the A-share market experiences a gradual upward trend, indicating a cross-year market rally [2][12][34] - The recent price increase across various industry chains is driven primarily by rising raw material costs, with companies adopting strategies such as voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order [3][14][16] - The new external circulation pattern is leading to a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by factors such as the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with historical trends suggesting limited impact on export competitiveness [4][21][23][25] Group 2 - A new investment theme for 2026 is emerging, characterized by increased physical consumption across industry chains and a prolonged trading range for bulk commodities, highlighting China's manufacturing advantages [6][29][37] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as Chinese equipment export chains and domestic manufacturing sectors poised for recovery [6][29][37] - The consumer recovery channel is expected to benefit from inbound tourism and rising household income, with sectors such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage showing potential [6][29][37]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - The price of plastics is under pressure due to abundant supply. The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply still suppresses prices. The overall market situation is not optimistic, with a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival [5]. - The strategy suggests a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now [5]. Polypropylene Part - Polypropylene prices are under pressure in the off - season. The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The market is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with an unfavorable supply - demand situation [95]. - Similar to plastics, the strategy recommends a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are also not recommended currently [97]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened significantly as the spot price increases less than the futures price. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened to - 31, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level [5]. - The import window has improved, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year. The non - standard price spread shows that the HD film supply is tight, and the LD has weakened recently [29][32]. Supply - New capacity has been concentratedly put into operation from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to remain abundant, with a slight decline in the short term and an increase in the future [47]. - The overall inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream. The subsequent supply increase and weak downstream confidence may lead to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Demand & Inventory - The demand for downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films has entered a phased off - season. The overall downstream demand shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease [5]. - The inventory transfer to the middle - stream is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened as the futures price rebounds, and the warehouse receipts have increased again. The cross - period spread is fluctuating [97]. - The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited growth. The non - standard price spread of the drawing material has slightly narrowed [112][119]. Supply - New capacity has been put into operation on a large scale from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to be abundant, but there may be a marginal reduction in supply if some PDH devices stop production in January [140]. - The inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the overall inventory is higher than the same period last year [97]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries such as plastic weaving and pipes have seasonally weakened. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend [96]. - The inventory removal is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a high inventory level [97].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming the overall market indices [2][15] - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with exports totaling 56,500 tons, significantly exceeding previous years [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances and promote high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9% [2][15] - The top-performing sub-industries included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [2][18] Key Industry Dynamics - TDI exports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 506,300 tons, a 56.2% year-on-year increase [3] - The China Synthetic Resin Association's initiative aims to optimize investment decisions and enhance innovation in the polyoxymethylene sector, anticipating a total capacity of 1.51 million tons per year by 2025 [3] Investment Themes - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics [8] - Leading chemical companies are anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, with recommendations for companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9]

Group 1 - The first China Water Conservation Award ceremony was held in Beijing, recognizing significant achievements in water conservation with 149 units and 199 individuals awarded [1] - Four collectives from Shandong Province and six individuals were honored for their outstanding contributions to water conservation [1] - The award aims to encourage society to actively participate in water-saving practices and promote water conservation efforts [1] Group 2 - Shandong Province has implemented national water-saving actions, enhancing water-saving efficiency in agriculture, reducing water consumption in industry, and minimizing water loss in urban areas [2] - The province, which holds 1% of the country's water resources, supports approximately 7% of the national population and irrigates about 5% of the arable land, contributing over 7% to the national GDP [2] - Shandong Province has achieved excellent ratings in the State Council's strict water resource management assessments for ten consecutive evaluations [2]

发布仪式展现了10位"齐鲁最美科技工作者"的先进事迹，将激励全省广大科技工作者为实现高水平 科技自立自强，奋力开创新时代社会主义现代化强省建设新局面贡献智慧和力量。（记者 王亚楠） 12月27日晚，由省委宣传部、省科协、省科技厅、大众报业集团、山东广播电视台联合主办的2025 年"齐鲁最美科技工作者"发布仪式在济南举行。 10位"齐鲁最美科技工作者"分别是：海尔集团CTO，国家高端智能化家用电器创新中心总经理王 晔；山东第一医科大学第一附属医院（山东省千佛山医院）院长，主任医师、教授田辉；中国石油大学 （华东）石油工程学院教授孙宝江；中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室副主任、教授陈显尧；山 东临工工程机械有限公司副总经理、总工程师迟峰；山东农业大学园艺科学与工程学院副院长、教授李 媛媛；万华化学集团股份有限公司技术开发中心主任，研究员级高级工程师尚永华；济南大学生物科学 与技术学院院长、教授秦晓春；山东大学晶体材料全国重点实验室主任、新一代半导体材料集成攻关大 平台主任、教授徐现刚；烟台毓璜顶医院耳鼻咽喉头颈外科医工交叉创新转化团队。 ...

Group 1 - The market rebound is primarily driven by enhanced logic of market winning rates both domestically and internationally [2] - Global liquidity concerns have significantly eased, particularly in the US, where the November core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since April 2021, boosting optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts [3] - Domestic market support stems from increased expectations for policy-driven liquidity easing and strengthened confidence in industrial development, with the central economic work conference setting clear policy goals for economic growth and price recovery [4] Group 2 - Technology assets are experiencing a contraction and differentiation, driven by "winning rate continuation" and "industrial explosion" logic, with telecommunications and defense industries leading the way [5] - In the cyclical sector, non-ferrous metals have performed well, benefiting from the transmission of technology industry chain prosperity and increased macro risk aversion [6] - The index is expected to show a strong upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising by 5.80% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.35% as of December 24 [7] Group 3 - The upcoming spring market is likely to focus on high-prosperity industries, with historical patterns indicating that strong economic conditions paired with strong industries lead to broad market gains [8] - Investment strategies should continue to focus on AI and less crowded technology sectors, global pricing resources, and consumer goods benefiting from moderate price recovery [8] - The January stock selection includes a diverse range of companies across various sectors, such as robotics, consumer goods, and advanced industries, indicating a strategic approach to capitalize on market trends [12][13]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月26日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.13个百分点至77.23%，PVC开工 率继续减少，处于近年同期中性水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.87个百分点，下游制品 订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单小幅增加，但印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限， 台湾台塑1月份CFR中国环比持平，但CFR印度、CFR东南亚分别下跌20美元/吨、30美元/吨。本周社会 库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、 新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上，30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近试生产。十五五"将谋划一批带动全局的重大工程、重大项 目、重大载体，全国工业和信息化工作会议强调，2026年要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，反内卷情绪 进一步升温，大宗商品市场情绪提振，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产企业开工预期下降 ...

期货研究报告|聚酯产业链专题 2025-12-26 PX 供应还有多少提升空间——国内篇 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 在对明年上半年供需偏紧的预期下，近期 PX 价格强势上涨，长短流程经济性都得到了 极大的提升，PXN 突破 360 元/吨，创下近五年 12 月的最高记录，也是 2024 年 6 月中 以来的高点，纸货 5 月 PXN 已经达到 380 美元/吨附近。当前 PX 在聚酯产业链中利润 表现最好，随着 PX 的 ...