1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]

Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of soda ash futures is driven by supply disruptions, but the long - term pattern of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains unchanged. For operation, pay attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, and avoid blind chasing of highs [3][4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement. Gold shows signs of rising again and low - buying for long positions can be considered. Iron ore may enter a technical short - position trend and short on rebounds is recommended. Glass is expected to be oscillatory and bearish. Eggs present a long - position opportunity due to seasonal supply tightness. Pulp futures show an oscillatory rebound trend [8][13][15][19][22][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - On the afternoon of November 10, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,226 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday reaching 1,230 yuan/ton and the trading volume increasing to over 1.54 million lots [3]. - The core driving force for the rise comes from supply - side disruptions, including production cuts by some enterprises and postponed new capacity commissioning. Low heavy - alkali inventory and the strengthening of glass futures also support the price. However, the long - term situation of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains, and downstream glass demand is still dragged by the real - estate sector [3][4]. - Institutions suggest paying attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, not blindly chasing highs, and short - term long - position opportunities can be grasped near the 1,200 yuan/ton mark [5]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index slowly oscillated upward and closed with a small positive line. Core CPI growth expanded and the price level stabilized and rebounded. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement [8]. Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions can be considered [13]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through an important support level and may enter a technical short - position trend, so short on rebounds is recommended [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies. Technically, it broke through the support level today and is expected to be oscillatory and bearish [19]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will gradually become prominent. Long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the market supply is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is weak, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The pulp futures have shown an oscillatory rebound trend recently [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall sentiment remains positive despite a slight retreat in market bullishness after the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's expected rate cut. The probability of a further rate cut in December is low but not a major negative. [2][3] - For copper, with tight raw material supply and low inventories, copper prices are expected to be well - supported after a correction. [3] - For aluminum, supply disruptions and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. [5] - For lead, due to de - stocking of visible lead ore inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] - For zinc, with zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] - For tin, short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. [14] - For nickel, high refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is recommended. [20] - For alumina, although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. [23] - For stainless steel, the market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] - For cast aluminum alloy, strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, copper prices declined. LME copper 3M contract fell 1.44% to $10930/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87270 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons, and domestic inventories also changed. [2] - **Strategy**: The expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories are likely to support copper prices after a correction. The operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 86500 - 88200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10800 - 11050 dollars/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed flat at $2870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21265 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum inventories decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. [4] - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. The operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21100 - 21400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2820 - 2900 dollars/ton. [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.07% to 17353 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell to $2022/ton. Domestic and LME lead inventories changed, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. [7] - **Strategy**: With de - stocking of lead ore visible inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.26% to 22382 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell to $3051/ton. Domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and the structural risk of LME zinc is high. [10] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere are likely to drive Shanghai zinc to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283600 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is a concern, and demand in some sectors is weak. [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. It is advisable to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 270000 - 292000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 35500 - 37000 dollars/ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120660 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel - iron prices were stable. [15] - **Strategy**: High refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider building long positions if the price drops sufficiently. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 1.47%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and the LC2601 contract also rose. [19] - **Strategy**: Domestic production decreased, social inventories decreased rapidly, and market rumors boosted the market. The fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile. The operating range for the GFI lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 81600 - 85000 yuan/ton. [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2831 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased, and inventories and prices in different regions changed. [22] - **Strategy**: Although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton. [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12725 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. Spot prices were stable, and inventories changed. [25] - **Strategy**: The market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The AD2512 contract fell 0.34% to 20620 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased, and the trading volume increased. [27] - **Strategy**: Strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant fluctuations in prices driven by supply concerns and cautious downstream purchasing behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 24, the main contract for copper futures opened at 86,450.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 86,890.00 CNY and a low of 86,230.00 CNY, with an increase of 1.23% [1]. - The overall performance of the copper market is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating robust market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - One德期货 notes that trade disturbances are diminishing, and the profitability of copper smelting enterprises is declining, which may limit the growth of refined copper supply [1]. - 中金财富期货 highlights ongoing issues in Chile and Peru, such as declining ore grades and community protests, which contribute to supply concerns, alongside the recent shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia [1]. - 冠通期货 mentions that the recent copper mine incident in Indonesia has not yet fully dissipated its positive market support, with copper concentrate inventories significantly lower than last year [2]. Group 3: Price and Consumption Trends - High copper prices are leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream consumers, with the market shifting from a simple supply-demand dynamic to a dual focus on supply disruptions and financial attributes [1]. - Despite being in a traditionally strong demand season, the high copper prices are difficult for downstream sectors to accept, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [2]. - The domestic power grid and new energy sectors are providing rigid support for demand, while the global industrial demand outlook remains optimistic amid a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillatory [8] - Alumina: Oscillatory [9] - Aluminum: Oscillatory in the short - term, with the central price likely to rise in the medium - term [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillatory in the short - term, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; oscillatory within a range in the medium - term [12] - Zinc: Oscillatory with a weakening trend [14] - Lead: Oscillatory [16] - Nickel: Widely oscillatory in the short - term, on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillatory [22] - Tin: Oscillatory [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in the short - to - medium term, with scrap and ore supplies tight, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals. One can continue to cautiously focus on low - buying and long - selling opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - aluminum price ratio returns above 4, one can focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so there are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1st; the US federal government has shut down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 17.2 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [7]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement reduces market risk appetite and pressures copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are low, and electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. Demand shows resilience [8]. - Outlook: Constraints on copper supply remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. In the long term, the copper price may show an upward - trending pattern, but in the short term, it is affected by US tariffs and is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On October 15th, alumina prices in various regions declined; a Shanxi alumina enterprise is undergoing a 7 - day roasting furnace maintenance, affecting about 10,000 tons of production [8][9]. - Logic: The macro sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply is still high, and the price is under pressure, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter may limit the downside [9]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On October 15th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; on October 13th, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; some companies' aluminum production increased [10]. - Logic: The macro tone is positive at home and abroad. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the central price may rise in the medium term [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On October 15th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; in September, automobile sales were strong [11][12]. - Logic: The cost is supported, supply - side production is increasing, demand is warming up, and inventory is accumulating. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the ADC12 - A00 spread is rising, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage; in the medium term, supply - demand is weak, but there are raw material disruption risks, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On October 15th, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 15th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons to 16.31 tons; a mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [14]. - Logic: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff statement is negative. The supply of zinc ore has loosened in the short term, and demand is average. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [14]. - Outlook: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, demand recovery is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Affected by policies and LME zinc trends, the price is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On October 15th, the price of waste batteries was stable, the price of lead ingots increased by 25 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased by 0.09 tons on October 13th; after the National Day, the supply of lead will gradually loosen [15]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply side's production is increasing, and the demand side's battery factory production is also increasing. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Outlook: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the dollar may decline. Currently in the peak consumption season, demand is high, supply is loosening, and the cost is rising slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On October 15th, LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons; Harita Nickel is implementing sustainable development measures; Antam and CATL plan to build a $6 - billion electric vehicle battery supply chain; the application process for the 2026 RKAB mining quota may be delayed [18][19]. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly lower, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to use a short - term trading strategy [20]. - Outlook: With LME nickel inventory exceeding 240,000 tons, it will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is on the sidelines in the medium - and long - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 490 tons; on October 15th, the spot price in Foshan had a premium of 340 yuan/ton; a fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; on October 14th, the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21][22]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices are weakening, and chromium prices are stable. In September, stainless steel production increased. Social inventory is accumulating, and there may be over - supply pressure after the peak season [22]. - Outlook: Terminal demand is slightly disappointing, and the cost provides some support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On October 15th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 190 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons; the average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 300 yuan/ton [22]. - Logic: During the National Day, there were supply disruptions in the tin market. Supply in Wa State, Indonesia, and Africa is tight, and domestic ore supply is also tight. Supply constraints support the tin price [23]. - Outlook: With tight ore supply, the tin price has bottom support and is expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content under this section. 3.3商品指数 - On October 15th, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2452.91, up 0.77% on the day, down 1.38% in the past 5 days, up 3.25% in the past month, and up 6.26% since the beginning of the year [151][152].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff concerns persist, limiting the upside potential of base metals. Although Trump's tariff threat has a negative impact, the marginal negative effect is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policies can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to medium - term, the supply - demand of base metals is expected to tighten, supporting prices. Long - term, there are still expectations of incremental stimulus policies and supply disturbances for copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. - Copper: Trade frictions lead to a short - term decline in copper prices. Supply constraints exist, and long - term, the price center may shift upward [8][9]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure [9]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost provides support, and the price fluctuates within a range. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [13][14]. - Zinc: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline [15]. - Lead: Recycled lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price fluctuates downward [16]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory exceeds 240,000 tons, and the price fluctuates widely. Short - term, it is in a wide - range shock; long - term, it is under observation [18][20]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the stainless - steel price drops. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [21][24]. - Tin: Supply constraints remain, and the price fluctuates [24]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Copper - **Information analysis**: Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st; the US federal government shuts down; in September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month; on October 14th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 50 yuan/ton; as of October 13th, copper inventory increased by 0.57 tons; there is a strike risk at Los Pelambres copper mine [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan reduces market risk appetite. Supply - side disturbances increase, and demand shows resilience. Cautious investors can gradually take profit on long positions [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the copper price center may shift upward; short - term, it will fluctuate [9]. 2. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2890 yuan; the national weighted index was 2924.4 yuan, down 5.5 yuan; the alumina warehouse receipt was 210,994 tons, up 13,836 tons [9][11]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuation. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter limits the downside space. There may be smelter production cuts [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [12]. 3. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; on October 13th, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum rod inventory increased; on October 14th, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 63,176 tons, up 25 tons; Rio Tinto's third - quarter electrolytic aluminum production increased by 6% year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: The macro environment is positive. The supply side has increasing production capacity, and the demand side has improving expectations. Observe post - holiday demand and inventory [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, the price center may shift upward [13]. 4. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton; the SMM AOO average price was 20,900 yuan/ton; the Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 400 yuan/ton; the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 42,566 tons, up 629 tons; in September, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased [13][14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported, the supply - side production increases marginally, and the demand side shows marginal improvement. The inventory accumulates. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [14]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, participate in cross - variety arbitrage opportunities; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate within a range [14]. 5. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the spot price of 0 zinc in different regions was at a discount; as of October 14th, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 1.29 tons; 29Metals postponed high - grade zinc ore mining [15]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan has a negative impact. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the demand is average. In the long - term, the price may decline [15]. - **Outlook**: In October, the zinc ingot inventory may continue to accumulate. The price will fluctuate [16]. 6. Lead - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton; the SMM1 lead ingot price was 16,800 - 16,950 yuan; the domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased; the SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased; after the holiday, the supply of lead will gradually increase [16]. - **Main logic**: The spot price is stable, the supply side has increasing production, and the demand side has high - level demand. The price will fluctuate [17]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate as the supply - demand is in a slightly surplus state [17]. 7. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the LME nickel inventory was 243,258 tons, up 1,164 tons; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 25,027 tons, down 245 tons; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the RKAB application process is delayed; Vale's nickel - iron plant increased production capacity [18][19]. - **Main logic**: The market sentiment dominates the price. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term and be under observation in the long - term [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it will fluctuate widely; in the long - term, it is under observation [20]. 8. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased; on October 14th, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium; an accident occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia; the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [21]. - **Main logic**: The price of nickel iron weakens, and the chromium price is stable. After the peak season, there may be structural over - supply [22]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, depending on inventory and cost [24]. 9. Tin - **Information analysis**: On October 14th, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was unchanged; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 118 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 1,121 lots; the spot price of 1 tin decreased by 400 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main logic**: Supply disturbances increase during the National Day. The supply side is tight, providing strong support for the price [24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate as the supply side is tight [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump's tariffs has a negative impact, but the marginal negative impact is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policy can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to - medium term, the supply and demand of basic metals are expected to tighten, which supports the prices. One can continue to cautiously focus on the opportunities of low - buying and long - holding for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - to - aluminum ratio returns above 4, one can pay special attention to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices will decline in the short term. In the long term, copper prices may show a pattern of fluctuating upwards. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1st, and the US government "shut down". In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month. As of October 13th, the copper inventory increased, and the strike risk of a copper mine increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the processing fees are at a low level. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, and the output of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The terminal demand is in the peak season, and the downstream stocking willingness may increase [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price of alumina is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of alumina in various regions decreased or remained stable. Some refineries are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is high, and the inventory is strongly accumulating. The decline of ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter is limited, which restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea's disturbances will have a great impact on prices [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price fluctuates. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, the price center may move up. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. Trump's tariff threat was later eased. Some replacement capacities are being put into production, the operating capacity and the start - up rate are high. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the price fluctuates. In the short term, one can participate in cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread between ADC12 and AOO increased. The supply start - up rate increased marginally, and the demand improved marginally. The 9 - month automobile sales were resilient, and the inventory continued to accumulate [11][13]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the short term, it may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is still room for decline. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the spot zinc price was at a discount. As of October 13th, the zinc inventory increased. A mine's production was delayed, and the zinc ore supply was temporarily loose. The refinery's profitability was good, and the demand was in the off - peak to peak season transition period [13][14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price fluctuated at a high level. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of lead remained stable, and the inventory decreased. After the holiday, the production of recycled lead enterprises gradually recovered, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increased [15][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. In the short term, it will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, it is to be observed. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic and global inventories increased. Indonesia plans to build a number of nickel - related projects, and a nickel - iron factory in Brazil increased its production capacity. The market sentiment dominates, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally [17][19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel - iron price weakened, and the stainless - steel price decreased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price weakened, and the chromium price was relatively stable. The stainless - steel output increased in September, and the inventory accumulated [20][21]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There are still supply constraints, and the tin price fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the tin inventory decreased, and the price decreased. During the National Day, there were continuous supply disturbances in tin. The supply of refined tin in the world is tightening, and the domestic tin ore supply is tight. The processing fees of tin concentrate are at a low level, and the start - up rate of refined tin is low [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the sub - items of different varieties for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2525.09, up 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2211.57, down 0.64% [149]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 13th was 2448.42, with a daily decline of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.73%, a 1 - month increase of 2.55%, and an increase of 6.07% since the beginning of the year [151].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the decline in risk assets and the resulting increase in risk aversion will drive up precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates is expected to support the upward trend in gold prices [5]. - Supply disruptions in copper mining are anticipated to strengthen copper prices as the peak demand season approaches [6][8]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience tight supply conditions, although demand recovery post-holiday is still uncertain [9]. - Tin prices are supported by tightening supply due to issues in refining and mining operations [10]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to weak demand, but long-term supply constraints may support prices [12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased to $3974.50 per ounce, up by $88.80 from October 3, reflecting a 2.29% rise. Silver prices rose to $50.76 per ounce, up by $3.16, a 6.63% increase [4][32]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 70,000 ounces to 32.7 million ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 11.35 million ounces to 497 million ounces [32]. Copper - LME copper closed at $10,765 per ton, up by $200 from October 3, a 1.89% increase. SHFE copper closed at 85,900 yuan per ton, up by 2,550 yuan, a 3.06% increase [6]. - Supply disruptions from major mines are expected to support copper prices, with Freeport-McMoran and Teck Resources reducing their production forecasts significantly [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices reached 21,020 yuan per ton, up by 290 yuan. LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508,825 tons [9]. - The report notes that while supply remains rigid, demand recovery is still weak, leading to potential inventory accumulation [9]. Tin - Domestic refined tin prices rose to 288,830 yuan per ton, an increase of 10,370 yuan, or 5.16% [10]. - Supply issues are exacerbated by slow recovery in mining operations, particularly in Myanmar and Indonesia [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices fell to 167,500 yuan per ton, down by 1,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.59% decrease. The report highlights weak demand and ongoing supply issues [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the US [1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the strengthening dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while copper prices are currently leading gains among base metals, there is a need for caution regarding potential pullbacks if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1] - There are expectations of tighter supply and demand dynamics for copper, aluminum, and tin, which may lead to increased prices for base metals in the long term due to ongoing supply disruptions [1]