尽管金银价格创下历史新高，印度9月份的黄金和白银进口量仍比8月激增近一倍。业内分析指出，银行和珠宝商为迎接10月排灯节等 传统节日，正加紧囤积库存，以避免未来可能出现的更高进口税。 进口激增背后：节日刚需与政策预期 作为全球第二大贵金属消费国，印度的进口增长为屡创新高的国际金价提供了有力支撑。一位匿名政府官员透露，近两周海关清关异 常繁忙，"已多年未见如此集中的进口潮"。印度政府每15天调整一次用于计算关税的"基准进口价格"，市场普遍预期10月将再次上调， 进一步刺激了9月底的突击进口。 数据与市场表现 9月30日，印度黄金期货价格创下每10克116,900卢比的历史纪录，白银期货也升至每公斤144,330卢比的新高； 为满足需求，印度经销商甚至支付每盎司8美元的溢价（含6%进口税和3%销售税）以获取现货。 全球市场对比鲜明 新加坡交易商指出，印度在历史高价位的强劲买入令市场意外，尤其与中国市场的冷淡形成鲜明对比——中国经销商目前对金价的折 扣已扩大至每盎司31至71美元，为近年最高水平。 8月份印度进口黄金64.17吨（价值54亿美元）、白银410.8吨（价值4.516亿美元）； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The recommended stance is to wait and see as the tariff expectation has been disproven, and the gold price is expected to continue to move sideways [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. The recommended stance is to be bullish in the short - term as the domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, and the copper price has stabilized and rebounded [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: After New York gold hit a high and then fell back last Friday, it maintained a weak trend on Monday, dropping from $3450 to the $3400 level. Shanghai gold and London gold also declined [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market previously expected the US to impose a tax on gold, but President Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. The short - term New York gold is still within the sideways range since the second quarter, and with the tariff expectation disproven, it is expected to continue its sideways and weakening movement [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Movement**: Shanghai copper maintained a strong performance yesterday with a slight increase in open interest; it opened slightly lower at night and then moved sideways with a slight decrease in open interest [4]. - **Macro - level Factors**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased, and the US dollar index remains weak, which is beneficial for the copper price. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [4]. - **Industry - level Factors**: On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last Thursday. With positive domestic and overseas macro factors, the copper price may maintain its strong performance [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to run strongly in the short - term due to rising US tariff expectations and technical price rebounds [1][3]. - Copper is seen as strong in the short - term. Although the US tariff on copper may cause price drops, domestic macro - expectations and industrial support could provide strong support [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [3]. - **Driving Logic**: Market tariff expectations increased after July 9 (the end - date of the 90 - day tariff extension). US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025. Technically, the futures price stabilized and regained the $3300 level and the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: running strongly [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, Shanghai copper decreased with reduced positions, and the decline was mainly due to the expected 50% US tariff on copper [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1. Market concerns about the tariff implementation may lead to a closed US import window and increased supply in non - US regions. However, positive domestic macro - expectations, rising commodities and stocks, and strong industrial support could support Shanghai copper, and the LME import loss has rapidly narrowed [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: strong in the short - term [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international copper prices, reaching a three-month high, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traders are stockpiling copper in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, aiming to lock in lower prices [3] - U.S. demand for copper is rising due to the restart of infrastructure projects, with orders for electrical wires and construction-grade copper increasing significantly [3] - LME copper inventories are declining, with warehouse stocks nearing 500,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance and contributing to price increases [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper mining is facing challenges, particularly in South America where strikes in Chile and Peru, along with transportation issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are impacting production [3] - Smelters are relying on existing inventories due to insufficient mining output, exacerbating the supply issues [3] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Short-term volatility in copper prices may occur due to tariff speculation, but long-term trends will depend on the actual implementation of U.S. infrastructure legislation and recovery of production in South America [4] - Investors should monitor upstream and downstream movements in the copper supply chain, including the operational rates of domestic copper rod manufacturers and inventory changes in quarterly reports from overseas copper companies [5] - The core logic of copper pricing remains rooted in supply-demand dynamics, with short-term tariff speculation being a temporary influence [5]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：近期金价维持强势运行，海外金价拉升至 3350 美元一线，国内 ...

Group 1: Export Trends - The surge in exports since Q4 2024 is linked to preemptive shipping behavior in response to tariff expectations, particularly noted in November 2024 when exports to the U.S. significantly exceeded seasonal norms[7] - By April 2025, the export growth rate was expected to stabilize around 4.7%, despite the impact of preemptive shipping and tariffs[19] - The overall export growth rate is projected to decline slightly in the second half of 2025, with a central tendency around 2.7% due to potential economic downturns in the U.S.[25] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Tariff expectations have driven export behaviors, with significant preemptive shipping observed when tariffs were anticipated but not yet implemented[12] - The introduction of a 10% tariff on U.S. and transshipment goods could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate central tendency[25] - The central tendency for exports to the U.S. increased from 1.1% to 2.8%, while exports to transshipment areas rose from 8.5% to 12.7%[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential demand shrinkage in the U.S. and other countries due to tariffs, which could lead to an unexpected decline in export growth rates[26] - The report emphasizes that the actual contribution of genuine new orders is significant, with about half of the high export growth rate from November 2024 to April 2025 attributed to real demand rather than preemptive shipping[13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices retreated from their highs, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US did not strongly drive up the copper market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive," but there is a chance the next one could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - In terms of the industrial fundamentals, the issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84] 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - In May 2025, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but still below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months. New orders and new export orders were still weak, and demand was under pressure due to tariff games. [12] - Although the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which strengthened the tariff expectation for copper in the 232 investigation, the impact on the copper market was not as strong as the previous time, and it was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. [5][13][84] Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, global copper mine production was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, and in February, it was 180,000 tons. [21] - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, China's cumulative imports of copper ores and concentrates were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper ores and concentrates; from January to April, China imported 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. [24] TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 13, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - 44.75 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 1.46 US dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The spot market trading of copper concentrates was inactive this week. [29] Refined Copper Production - In May, SMM's domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative production increased by 544,800 tons, an increase of 11.09%. In June, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, an increase of 12.55%. From January to June, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 670,900 tons, an increase of 11.34%. [37] Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. [43] Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a single - month import of 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April, cumulative imports were 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81%. The supply of recycled copper raw materials in the market is still very tight. [46] Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to April, power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. [52] - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to April, the air - conditioner production was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of monthly production slowed down. [56] - **Automobiles**: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In May 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. [60] - **Real Estate**: In 2024, from January to December, the real estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. [62] Other Elements Inventory - As of June 13, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 412,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 15,200 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 114,500 tons, SHFE inventory increased by 5,461 tons to 101,900 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,170 tons to 196,000 tons. As of June 12, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. [64] CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of June 10, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,351 lots, a weekly increase of 2,257 lots. The non - commercial long position was 72,101 lots, a weekly increase of 852 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 45,750 lots, a weekly decrease of 1,405 lots. [68] Premiums and Discounts - As of June 13, the LME copper spot premium was 73.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot turned to a premium and rose. The LME copper inventory is shifting in two directions, with some Asian copper inventory flowing to the US market and some European Russian copper inventory flowing to the Chinese market. [78] - During the week, copper prices first rose and then fell, and the spot premium stopped falling and rebounded. Next week, it is expected that there will be concentrated arrivals of goods such as those from Russia. After the contract change, the spot will still start with a high - premium quote, but the transaction is expected to gradually fall back to around 100 yuan per ton. [78] Basis - As of June 13, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 1,080 yuan per ton. [80] Market Outlook - Macro - level: Copper prices retreated from their highs this week, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. There is a chance that the Fed's next interest rate cut could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - Industry fundamentals: The issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. The copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Strategy: Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices strengthened at the end of the week after fluctuations, with tariff expectation pricing disturbing the market again. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, but this driver is not strong enough to sustain the upward trend of the market. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and attention should be paid to changes in employment conditions. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate is still at a restrictive level, and the next rate cut may be a "recessionary rate cut" [5][85]. - The problem of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, and the refined copper output in May reached a new high. Domestic demand has seasonally weakened, the copper product operating rate has declined, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories has weakened. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games. After the price increase of COMEX copper, the price relationship is COMEX copper > LME copper > Shanghai copper, and the domestic spot buying has weakened [6][86]. - It is recommended to consider selling CALL options for the near - month contracts and buying PUT options for the far - month contracts [6][86]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's manufacturing increased by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but it has been below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months, and the demand side is under pressure due to tariff games [12]. - The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, and the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has widened to over $1000, but the driving force is not as strong as the previous time [5][13][85]. Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, the global copper mine output was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual output in 2024 was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, the global copper mine output was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025 and 180,000 tons in February [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores; from January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [24]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 6, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $43.29 per dry ton, an increase of $0.27 from the previous period. The second mid - year negotiation between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta has not started yet [28]. Refined Copper Output - In May, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative output increased by 544,800 tons, a rise of 11.09%. It is estimated that the output in June will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.63%, but a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, a rise of 12.55% [36]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%; in December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%; in December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [45]. Refined - Scrap Spread - In May, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 29.92%, lower than the expected 32.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13%. In June, as orders approach the delivery period, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises may increase slightly [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, the cumulative power investment from January to December was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [52]. - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly output of air - conditioners was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; from January to December 2024, the cumulative output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to April 2025, the output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with a decreasing growth rate [56]. - **Automobiles**: In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 4.429 million and 4.3 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively [60]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the cumulative real estate completion area from January to December was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In April 2025, the completion area was 156 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%, and the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 6, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 427,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,614 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 132,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,400 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 7,250 tons to 187,900 tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 58,000 tons as of June 5, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [65]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 3, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,094 lots, a weekly increase of 1,513 lots. The non - commercial long position was 71,249 lots, a weekly increase of 1,305 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 47,155 lots, a weekly decrease of 208 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 6, the LME copper spot premium was $69.84 per ton. The LME copper spot has turned to a premium and is rising. Attention should be paid to the potential risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. The domestic spot market has a large price difference between different brands, and attention should be paid to the risk of an expanded monthly spread next week [79]. Basis - As of June 6, 2025, the basis between the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 80 yuan per ton [81].