1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation due to the repeated geopolitical news and the risk of further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, they are likely to gradually build a bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the supporting factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the huge US debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain solid. As factors like geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 31, 2026, London gold spot was at $4557.00 per ounce, London silver spot at $72.02 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4586.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $72.20 per ounce, AU2606 at 1020.10 yuan per gram, AG2606 at 18126 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 1016.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 18052 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the price increases were 0.6%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.6%, 0.5%, 2.4%, 0.6%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 31, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.52 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 74 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.81 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 46 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.28, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.53, AU2608 - 2606 was 3.04 yuan per gram, and AG2608 - 2606 was - 12 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the changes were - 26.1%, 196.0%, 28.2%, - 2003.6%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 19.7%, and - 52.0% respectively [5] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: On March 30, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1046.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15288.3594 tons. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.33% and - 0.79% respectively [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: As of March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 2.27%, - 6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On March 31, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory data was N/A, and the SHFE silver inventory data was N/A [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On March 30, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 troy ounces. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.56% and - 0.22% respectively [5] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On March 31, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, with a change of - 0.04% compared with March 30, 2026 [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: On March 30, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 30.61, the S&P 500 was 6343.72, and NYMEX crude oil was $105.01. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 0.33%, - 1.55%, - 2.03%, - 1.42%, - 0.39%, and 3.79% respectively [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On August 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.46% to 1020.1 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.41% to 18126 yuan per kilogram [5] - **Influence Analysis**: Fed Chairman Powell's statement eased short - term market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing the US dollar index and US bond yields to decline. The market trading logic shifted from inflation to stagflation, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, with the risk of further escalation, which may cause short - term suppression of precious metal prices [6] - **Future Market Analysis**: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the long term, they are likely to gradually build a bottom and return to the long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for platinum and palladium is bullish in the long - term [4] Report's Core View - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite significant short - term pullbacks, the long - term value of platinum and palladium as reserves is highlighted under the de - dollarization trend, and the supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector are favorable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.10, 493.55, and 489.90 respectively. The price changes are 0.80, 2.45, and 0.15, with percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.50%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes are 7351, 271, and 105 respectively, and the open interests are all 13298. The spot premiums are 1.96, 1.51, and 5.16 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 361.40, 361.10, and 358.70 respectively. The price changes are 3.20, 2.50, and 0.50, with percentage changes of 0.89%, 0.70%, and 0.14%. The trading volumes are 2782, 69, and 23 respectively, and the open interests are all 4904. The spot premiums are - 5.4, - 5.1, and - 2.7 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The price of Shanghai platinum is 495.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 5.41 and a percentage change of 0.011%. The price of London platinum is 1908.00 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 12.00 and a percentage change of - 0.006%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 758.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with changes of 16.00 and 0.00 and percentage changes of 0.022% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The price of Chinese palladium is 356.00 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.00 and a percentage change of 0.035%. The price of Russian palladium is 3735.53 rubles/gram, with a change of 110.32 and a percentage change of 0.030% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 541,249.04 ounces, a decrease of 12991.8 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts are 311,333.49 ounces, a decrease of 1006.9 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 792.11 million yuan, a decrease of 3814.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 16.00 kilograms, a decrease of 80.0 kilograms [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 247,765.39 ounces, a decrease of 608.3 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 211,887.35 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current dollar index is 99.88, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6528.52, an increase of 184.80. The US Treasury yield is 4.30, a decrease of 0.05. The Nasdaq index is 21590.63, an increase of 795.99. The Dow Jones index is 46341.51, an increase of 1125.37. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate remains unchanged at 6.92 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 1010.00, 1020.10, and 1023.30 respectively, with changes of - 1.02, 5.22, and 5.38. The current prices of Shanghai Silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 18137.00, 18126.00, and 18114.00 respectively, with changes of 381, 419, and 432 [1] Macro News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative stance [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Nomination**: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026 [3] Comments and Strategies - **Short - term Situation**: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have pulled back significantly from their highs, mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which has led to short - term strengthening of the US dollar [4] - **Long - term Logic**: The long - term bullish logic remains intact, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and favorable supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals rebounded significantly. The easing signal of the US - Iran conflict alleviated short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to the elevated geopolitical risk, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the ongoing de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, and silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with relatively larger fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For沪金2606, the closing price was 1020.10, up 5.22 (0.51%) from the previous day; for沪金2604, the closing price was 1010.000, down 1.020 (-0.10%); for沪银2606, the closing price was 18126, up 419 (2.37%); for沪银2604, the closing price was 18137, up 381 (2.15%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The持仓量 of沪金2606 was 180433, and the成交量 was 335355; for沪金2604, the持仓量 was 13530, and the成交量 was 23055; for沪银2606, the持仓量 was 241055, and the成交量 was 881875; for沪银2604, the持仓量 was 17199, and the成交量 was 24551 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 was -4.42, and that of沪金2604 was 5.68; for沪银2606, it was -95, and for沪银2604, it was -106 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 1015.68, up 6.72 (0.67%); London gold closed at 4669.13, up 155.61 (3.45%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 18031, up 471 (2.68%); London silver closed at 75.14, up 5.10 (7.28%) [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The difference between沪金2606 and沪金2604 was 10.10 (previous value: 3.86); the difference between沪银2606 and沪银2604 was -11.00 (previous value: -49.00); the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 56.33 (previous value: 57.46); the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold was 0.98; the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver was 1.08 [2]. Inventory - **Changes**: The上期所黄金库存 remained unchanged at 106,644 kg; the上期所白银库存 decreased by 5760 kg to 368,667 kg; the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2604 ounces to 31,533,901 ounces; the COMEX silver inventory increased by 231248 ounces to 327,820,669 ounces [2]. Related Derivatives and Market Indicators - **Market Indicators**: The美元指数 decreased by 0.65 to 99.86; the标普500指数 increased by 184.80 to 6,528.52; the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.05% to 4.30%; the布伦特原油 price decreased by 5.36 to 103.53; the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.0049 to 6.9081 [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The SPDR黄金ETF持仓 increased by 1.1 tons to 1,047.3 tons; the SLV白银ETF持仓 decreased by 14.1 tons to 15,274.3 tons; the CFTC投机者净持仓 for gold increased by 8458 to 168,327; the CFTC投机者净持仓 for silver increased by 2792 to 24,673 [2]. Macro News - **Iran's Stance**: Iranian President Pezeshkiyan stated on March 31 that Iran has the "necessary will" to end the war, provided that the other side meets Iran's demands, especially the guarantee of no further aggression. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that there is no negotiation but information exchange with the US, and Iran has not responded to the US's 15 proposals [3][4]. - **US Stance**: US officials are concerned about indirect negotiations through third - parties and believe direct negotiations are more efficient. Trump said the US will end the war with Iran in two to three weeks, and it's possible to reach an agreement with Iran before that [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, and precious metals markets are expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Some commodity markets such as steel, iron ore, and coking coal have potential short - term rebound opportunities, and investors can participate with light positions. Different agricultural and chemical product markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [6][9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. The current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and the market is expected to face some pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Although asset valuations are low and there is room for repair, the Iran situation brings high uncertainty, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the medium term, prices are determined by supply and demand. Rebar demand is decreasing, but supply pressure is relieved, and prices may rebound with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Demand may increase, but the impact may be limited. The inventory is at a high level. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can participate with light positions [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is improving. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Technically, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The price of crude oil may be supported, but also affected by the end of the war. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [23][24]. 3.6 Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets declined. Supply pressure is expected to ease, but demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between cost - push and supply - demand game. The cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between the impact of the Middle East conflict on cost and demand and the approaching of the domestic tapping season. The market is in a short - term multi - empty game and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is between the supply concern caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, but the upside space is limited [33][34]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures fell. The core contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside space is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season [36]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PX load decreased, and the supply is expected to be tight. The price may be in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38][39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA load increased, and the downstream polyester load decreased. The short - term multi - empty game is intense, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. It is necessary to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to the negotiation progress and the situation of the strait [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The short - term trading is based on the cost logic, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43]. - **Bottle Chip**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The processing fee is being repaired. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation, and cost changes [44]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The cost is rising, but the price adjustment is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [45][47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is shrinking, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The cost support is still there, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is not significantly reduced. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot market may face pressure [49][50]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures fell. The port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the supply is also increasing slightly. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory and weak demand put pressure on the market [51][52]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [53]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The macro - sentiment is cautious, the mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support after a decline [54]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The ore cost is rising, the supply is tightened, and the demand is strong. The inventory is changing, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mine cost provides support, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has repair momentum, but the upside space is limited [58]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply is tightened, and the demand is for rigid replenishment. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but the overseas situation is uncertain [63]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose slightly. The macro - situation is improving, but the policy risk in Indonesia increases. The supply and demand are complex, and the inventory is relatively high. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, and the US soybean planting area is lower than expected. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and stay on the sidelines for soybean oil [66][67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The export data in March is strong, and Indonesia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [68][69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different trends. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [71]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in a decreasing cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, but the short - term quota issuance is negative. The price has long - term support [73][74]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures fluctuated. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is high. The international sugar price has support due to the impact of oil prices. The domestic sugar price has a higher bottom [75][76]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is increasing. The market is expected to be stable and strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [77][78]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, pig futures fell. The supply is under pressure, the consumption is weak, and the secondary fattening support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contracts with light positions [79]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply is improving, but the demand may decline after the stocking period. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn futures fell, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to short - covering opportunities after the price decline [81][83]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, log futures fell. The export volume from New Zealand decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. The terminal consumption is limited, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [84][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the gold market experienced a sharp shift from "safe - haven frenzy" to "stagflation concerns", with the short - term safe - haven property of gold temporarily overshadowed by soaring interest rate expectations, creating a false impression of "ineffectiveness". In Q2, investors should focus on the "golden pit" layout opportunities between interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The current market is forming a "stagflation - like" pattern. In the short term, gold may be under pressure, but as economic downward pressure emerges, its anti - inflation and safe - haven values will re - emerge [2]. - Gold is expected to have a wide - range shock and bottom - building in the short term (1 - 3 months), its allocation value will significantly increase in the medium term (3 - 6 months) if economic data continues to be weak, and it has a long - term bullish logic supported by structural factors in the long term (6 - 12 months). Silver will follow gold to bottom and wait for industrial demand to catalyze in Q2 [3]. - Investors can consider 4300 US dollars per ounce as a tactical layout reference area, and if the price approaches 3900 - 4000 US dollars per ounce due to extreme sentiment, it should be regarded as an important strategic adding opportunity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Market Review: Violent Fluctuations under Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts - **Geopolitical Conflicts: From Safe - Haven Pulse to Risk Re - evaluation**: In early March, the US - Israel joint military action against Iran triggered a safe - haven pulse in the market. COMEX gold once exceeded 5400 US dollars per ounce, and Brent crude oil price soared. However, as the conflict situation eased marginally in mid - to late March, high oil prices led to an increase in global inflation expectations, changing the market's macro trading logic [7][10]. - **Monetary Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signal as the Market Watershed**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, reversing the market's easing expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppressed the price of gold, and the price of gold dropped significantly [11][14]. - **Asset Performance Differentiation: Different Paths of Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil**: Gold showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while silver performed significantly weaker than gold, with a quarterly decline of more than 4% due to the suppression of its financial and industrial attributes [15][18]. - **Market Structure Change: From Crowded Trading to Liquidity Shock**: The highly crowded long positions in the gold market at the end of 2025 to early 2026 became an amplifier of the market decline when the price turned. The triggering of stop - loss orders in program trading and the widening of bid - ask spreads by market - makers led to a sharp decline in market liquidity [21][24]. - **Structural Factors: Marginal Changes in Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks' continuous gold - buying behavior provided long - term support for the gold price. However, in Q1 2026, the motivation for central bank gold purchases weakened significantly, and selling behavior increased compared to 2025 [25][28]. 3.2 Macro Environment Analysis: The Fed's Hawkish Stance, Inflation Pressure, and Economic Stagflation Risk - **Monetary Policy: A Clear Shift from "Wait - and - See" to "Tightening"**: The Fed's decision in the March interest - rate meeting marked a fundamental shift in its policy stance. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased significantly, and global central banks mostly maintained a hawkish or tightening stance, which put short - term pressure on the gold price [30][33]. - **Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices as the Core Driver and Policy Constraint**: Geopolitical conflicts led to an energy crisis, which was the main driver of inflation. High oil prices increased inflation and suppressed economic growth, forming a stagflation risk. If inflation persists, it may increase the demand for gold as an anti - inflation asset [38][41]. - **Economic Outlook: The Co - existence of "Stagnation" Signs and "Inflation" Pressure**: The US economy showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising and the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line. The global economic growth expectation faced a downward risk, and the current environment formed a "stagflation - like" pattern, which was a stage where gold could play its unique value [42][46]. - **Interest Rates and the US Dollar: Twin Shackles Suppressing Precious Metals**: The Fed's hawkish stance led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which directly suppressed the price of gold. The market was in a game between "interest - rate suppression" and "safe - haven/anti - inflation support" [47][50]. 3.3 Geopolitical Impact Mechanism: The Double - Game and Transmission Path of the Middle East Conflict on Gold - The impact of the Middle East conflict on gold is through two opposite transmission paths: the safe - haven demand support path and the interest - rate expectation suppression path. In Q1 2026, the market's focus shifted from the safe - haven support path to the interest - rate expectation suppression path, and the pricing logic of gold has changed from being driven by geopolitical events to being driven by macro - policy expectations [51][52]. 3.4 Re - examination of Gold's Safe - Haven Property: Verification of Long - Term Logic and Analysis of Short - Term Ineffectiveness - **Solid Foundation and Continuous Verification of Long - Term Safe - Haven Logic**: Gold's long - term safe - haven logic is based on its currency property, scarcity, and functions of hedging long - term inflation and currency depreciation. It has been continuously verified in the long - term, and current structural factors are strengthening this logic [54]. - **Characteristics and Core Mechanisms of Short - Term "Ineffectiveness" in Q1 2026**: In March 2026, the short - term performance of gold was contrary to traditional safe - haven cognition. This "ineffectiveness" was the result of multiple suppression mechanisms under specific market conditions, rather than the disappearance of its safe - haven property [55]. - **Differentiated Performance of Short - Term and Long - Term Logic Based on the Nature of the Crisis**: Gold's safe - haven property depends on the nature of the crisis. In the short term, it may be affected by interest - rate and liquidity factors, but in the long term, its safe - haven and anti - inflation properties will re - emerge [56]. - **Subsequent Verification: Key Indicators for Observing the Return of Long - Term Logic**: In Q2, key indicators such as the Fed's policy and inflation game, market liquidity, geopolitical risk transmission path, and the continuity of structural demand should be closely monitored to judge whether gold's safe - haven property will return to the dominant state [57][58]. 3.5 Future Gold Price Changes at Different Time Nodes - **Short - Term (1 - 3 months)**: The gold price will be affected by the after - effects of the liquidity shock and the tug - of - war of interest - rate expectations. It may show a wide - range shock pattern in the early stage of Q2, and 4200 US dollars per ounce is the first support level to be verified [61]. - **Medium - Term (3 - 6 months)**: The market will focus on economic data verification. If economic data continues to be weak, the market will trade the economic recession risk and expect the Fed to loosen monetary policy, and the allocation value of gold will significantly increase [62]. - **Long - Term (6 - 12 months)**: Gold's pricing logic has shifted to a structural bull market driven by the deep - seated transformation of the global monetary system. Global debt, central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization process provide long - term support for gold [64]. 3.6 Silver Market Analysis: Industrial Attributes, Relative Performance, and Q2 Outlook - **Reasons for the Silver Price Decline in Q1**: In Q1 2026, the silver market was weak, with a decline of 4.26% in the London silver spot price. Its weakness was due to the simultaneous pressure on its financial and industrial attributes. The financial attribute was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish stance, and the industrial demand expectation was weakened by the uncertain global economic outlook [67][68]. - **Q2 Silver Outlook: Following Gold to Bottom and Waiting for Industrial Demand Catalysis**: In Q2, silver will mainly follow gold to fluctuate. If the market expects the Fed to loosen policy in the middle and late Q2, the suppression of silver's financial attribute will be alleviated. The recovery of industrial demand may drive silver to have an independent upward market, but it also faces greater downward risks [69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing a complex pricing shift from "geopolitical risk" to "liquidity trading," with significant volatility in gold and silver prices observed in Q1 2026 [1][10]. Group 1: Price Volatility and Influencing Factors - As of March 31, 2026, gold prices opened at approximately $4,538 per ounce, while silver prices were around $69.35 per ounce, reflecting a notable decline from recent highs [1][11]. - Gold and silver futures have seen declines of approximately 13% and 24% respectively over the past month, indicating that safe-haven sentiment has not translated linearly into price increases due to a stronger dollar and rising interest rate expectations [1][11]. - A record outflow of $11 billion from commodity ETFs has been reported since March, with over $7 billion redeemed from gold ETFs and about $1.4 billion from silver ETFs [1][11]. Group 2: Liquidity Impact and Market Dynamics - The primary driver of recent price fluctuations in precious metals is liquidity impact, with speculative and leveraged funds rapidly exiting the market [2][13]. - The trading volume of gold ETFs surged threefold and silver ETFs increased ninefold in the first two months of 2026 compared to the average in 2025, highlighting the presence of crowded trades [2][14]. - Asian investors are observed to be selling gold and silver to meet liquidity needs, contributing to short-term price volatility [3][15]. Group 3: Long-term Support and Central Bank Purchases - Despite recent volatility, central bank purchases are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, with a reported net purchase of 863 tons globally in 2025 [12][17]. - Emerging market central banks, particularly in Poland and China, are increasing their gold holdings as part of a de-dollarization trend, which is expected to underpin gold prices in the long run [12][18]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Price Predictions - For investors looking to enter the market, a buying range of $4,200 to $4,400 per ounce for gold is suggested, with resistance anticipated around $4,900 [12][21]. - The overall market is expected to exhibit more wave trading characteristics this year, with a target price for gold set at around $5,000 and trading expected to range between $4,500 and $5,500 [21].

Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - The RMB internationalization index increased significantly from 0.0025 in 2001 to 2.84 in 2025, indicating substantial growth[10] - By 2024, the cross-border payment amount of RMB in the ASEAN region is projected to reach 8.9 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other regions such as the Middle East (1.1 trillion yuan) and Africa (155.3 billion yuan), accounting for 13.8% of total RMB cross-border payments[7] - The capital account cross-border payment amount is a major driver of RMB usage in ASEAN, with a growth rate of 50.7%[26] Group 2: Comparison with Yen's Development - The historical development of the yen in Asia provides insights for RMB's growth in ASEAN, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation and financial stability[39] - The yen's internationalization faced challenges due to limited offshore market openness and capital controls, which the RMB can avoid by leveraging its current advantages[46] - Unlike the yen, which struggled with capital flow imbalances, the RMB's current structure supports a more balanced approach to internationalization[46] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The future of RMB internationalization in ASEAN will depend on leveraging its advantages while avoiding historical pitfalls faced by the yen, aiming for high-quality expansion globally[7] - Risks include the potential for RMB to face similar challenges as the yen, such as limited regional trade settlement and financial cooperation[46] - By 2025, RMB's share in global payments is expected to reach 1.93%, still relatively low compared to developed currencies[17]

Group 1: Conditions for Currency Transition - The international status of a currency reflects the comprehensive strength of its issuing country, which includes economic, trade, and military power[8] - Currency transition requires significant lag and stickiness, meaning a currency can maintain its dominant position even after the issuing country's economic decline[14] - Wars often catalyze the decline of an international currency, leading to increased fiscal burdens and weakened currency credibility[14] - A mature and open financial market is essential for currency internationalization, facilitating trade and capital flows[14] Group 2: Dollar Replacing Pound - The transition from the pound to the dollar occurred in four phases: latent (1870s-1913), loosening (1914-1930), collapse (1931-1944), and termination (1945-1971)[15] - During the latent phase, the U.S. economy began to surpass the UK, with U.S. GDP share rising from approximately 10% in 1870 to 32% by 1913, while the UK's share fell from 60% to 13.6%[16] - The loosening phase saw the dollar emerging as a competitor to the pound, with U.S. overseas assets rising to 36% by 1930, compared to the UK's 44%[24] - The collapse phase marked a significant decline in the pound's status, with its share in global debt dropping from 85.6% to 30.2% by 1944, while the dollar's share rose to 56.6%[38] - The termination phase solidified the dollar's dominance, with its share of global foreign exchange reserves exceeding 70% by 1971, following the end of the Bretton Woods system[41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bull market for gold remains intact, and the gold price is in the process of bottom - building. The second quarter is expected to see the gold price oscillate and build a bottom, with opportunities for configuration on pullbacks. [2][4] - Geopolitical disturbances, such as the Middle - East war, have increased the risk of global economic stagflation. The US economy faces challenges in terms of inflation, employment, and fiscal pressure. [2][23] - The Fed is in a difficult position. The threshold for raising interest rates is high, and its policy adjustment may lag behind the inflation rise. [2][44] - The global central banks' gold - buying speed has slowed down, which will increase the volatility of gold. [3][57] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Gold's Violent Fluctuations - **First - quarter gold price trend review**: London gold started at $4300 per ounce at the beginning of the year, reaching a high of $5598 per ounce on January 29 and a low of $4098 per ounce on March 23, with an amplitude of about 35%. The one - month at - the - money option volatility reached a maximum of 37.7%. [12] - **Reasons for price fluctuations**: In January, geopolitical risks and the silver short - squeeze pushed up the price. Then, the Fed's hawkish stance and the nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a price correction. In February, geopolitical risks drove a rebound. In March, due to the war's impact on energy prices and central banks' selling of gold reserves, the price fell. [12][15][21] 3.2 Middle - East War Intensifies Global Economic Stagflation Risk - **First - quarter US economic performance and future risks**: In Q1 2026, the US economy was in the expansion zone, but there were signs of stagflation. Energy price hikes and tariff policies will increase inflation pressure, and the employment market is not stable. [23][27] - **Rapid rise in inflation pressure**: Energy prices soared in March, and the US CPI is expected to rise significantly in Q2. Tariff policies also contribute to inflation. [30][31] - **Unstable employment market**: Since the second half of 2025, the US employment market has been weak. In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000. The employment market shows a decline in vitality. [33][35] 3.3 The Fed is in a Dilemma and May Lag Behind the Situation - **Delayed Fed rate - cut expectations and high rate - hike threshold**: In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased, and there are signs of a possible rate hike. However, due to the supply - side shock, the rate - hike threshold is high. [44][45] - **Increased military spending and greater US fiscal pressure**: The Trump administration's fiscal policy is expansionary. The military strike against Iran has increased military spending, and the fiscal deficit may increase. [53][54] - **Slowed global central banks' gold - buying and increased gold volatility**: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying volume decreased by 21% year - on - year. In 2026, some central banks sold gold reserves, increasing gold's volatility. [57][58] 3.4 Summary and Outlook: Gold Oscillates to Build a Bottom and Wait for Configuration Opportunities - **Gold outlook**: The long - term gold bull market is not over. In Q2, the gold price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. The support price for London gold is $4000 per ounce, and the high is seen at $5300 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures main contract will operate in the range of 900 - 1200 yuan per gram. [4][67] - **Silver outlook**: The silver price has returned to normal after reaching a peak. The gold - silver ratio has room to rise. The London silver price is expected to operate in the range of $60 - 100 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract will operate in the range of 15,000 - 23,000 yuan per gram. [70][73]