自2 0世纪9 0年代以来，全球外汇储备规模稳步增长。同时，受地缘经济 风险和全球金融市场发展等因素的驱动，各国央行在储备货币的选择上 呈现出多元化趋势。美元主导地位虽依然稳固，但其份额持续下降，而 人民币等新兴储备货币地位逐步提升。地缘政治博弈、金融风险分散需 求以及全球贸易结构变化，共同推动国际货币体系向更加多元、均衡的 方向演进。 为此，《清华金融评论》策划"国际储备格局重塑：美元的挑战与黄金的 回归"专题，旨在从多维度深入探讨全球官方储备体系结构性变迁的内在 逻辑、黄金货币属性复兴的宏观经济基础，以及"去美元化"进程对国际 货币秩序演进的长远影响。 《清华金融评论》 2026 年第4 期专题 国际储备格局重塑：美元的挑战与黄金的回归 自20世纪90年代以来，全球外汇储备规模稳步增长。同时，受地缘经济风险和全球金融市场发展等因素的驱动，各国央行在储备货币的选择上呈 现出多元化趋势。美元主导地位虽依然稳固，但其份额持续下降，而人民币等新兴储备货币地位逐步提升。地缘政治博弈、金融风险分散需求以 及全球贸易结构变化，共同推动国际货币体系向更加多元、均衡的方向演进。 在此背景下，《清华金融评论》 2026 年第 ...

特朗普2026年先是对委内瑞拉，接着对伊朗进行"精确打击"，目的就是希望提高对石油的控制权，维持石油美元的霸权地位，但特朗普低估了伊朗的反击 决心，现在伊朗的反击非常激烈。 除地缘冲突加剧外， 流动性挤兑与技术性回调也是 导致金价近期大幅波动的重要原因。 地缘冲突加剧后引发不少股市出现暴跌，进而导致机构抛售黄金 弥补保证金缺口，形成短期抛压。此外，部分投资者 "买预期卖事实"，获利了结导致金价高位回落。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 中东地缘冲突激化以来，金价呈现先涨后跌的震荡行情，主要原因在于， 市场起初将黄金视为避险工具，金价因此大幅上扬，而后市场担心 霍 尔 木兹 海峡关闭 时间会 长 于 预期 ， 或推 高美 国乃 至全 球通 胀， 金价 因 而回 落。中东局势还在不断演变中，不过目前看，金价长期升势未变。 据新华社报道， 2月28日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发制人"军事打击，伊朗对以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击，中东地缘局势进一步升级。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队当晚宣布，禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。霍尔木兹海峡是中东产油国的原油出口必经之路，通过这一海峡运输的石油约占全球石 油运输总量的五分之一。 ...

——金属行业 3 月投资策略展望 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 3 月 4 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 行业数据 钢铁：节后需求复苏仍需一定时间，关注两会期间钢企自主减排对钢价的影 响以及两会期间"反内卷"相关信息。 行 行业月报 关注国内需求复苏，警惕海外地缘扰动 铜：国内下游企业逐步复工复产，市场需求有限，高价对需求仍有抑制作用。 美以对伊朗发动战争，地缘冲突可能扰乱全球供应链，进一步强化资源民族 主义，间接对铜价有支撑，但高铜价对需求的抑制或使铜价持续上升动力不 足，关注海外地缘局势和铜库存去化进度。 铝：氧化铝方面，考虑到节后氧化铝厂部分检修产能复工，供应增加或压制氧 化铝价格。电解铝方面，3 月国内电解铝厂将逐步复产，随着下游的复工，短 期铝行业将进入需求预期的验证阶段，关注实际需求、莫桑比克的 Mozal 铝 厂停产信息和海外地缘局势影响。 黄金：黄金的避险属性与央行购金将对金价形成支撑，需关注海外地缘局势 变化，短期金价或与避险情绪密切相关。 锂：3 月旺季需求预期乐观，行业供应或维持偏紧状态，碳酸锂价格有望维持 高位，关注监管层面信息、澳洲锂矿 ...

明 免责声明 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存 在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 免 责 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职 业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方 的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接 获取任何形式的不当利益。 2026 年 3 月 4 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1185.38 | 1182.000 | 21415 | 21645 | ...

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/3/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2604 | AG2604 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 - | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格最蛋 | 2026/3/3 | 5306. 69 | 85.08 | 5319. 80 | 85. 12 | 1182.00 | 21645.00 | 1179.80 | 21341.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

2026年03月04日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确 定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 声 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理 解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影 响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不 当利益。 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 570.30 | 563.70 | 562.05 | 433. ...

2026 年 3 月 4 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 112.770 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 108.500 元，5 年期主力合约持平于 106.065 元，2 年期主 力合约涨 0.01%报 102.470 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，3 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 343 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

最新行情显示，国际原油价格持续拉升，WTI原油涨5.02%，报74.803美元/桶；布伦特原油涨5.03%，报81.653 美元/桶。 油价行情依然亢奋！ 今日（3月3日），资源主线交易依然火热，多只油气类主题基金依然延续涨停态势。具体来看，标普油气ETF嘉 实、油气ETF银华、石油ETF富国、油气ETF博时、油气ETF汇添富等多只产品涨停。 | 名称 | | 涨跌 | 现价 | 日回报 年初至今 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油LOF易方达 | 0.153 | 10.02% | 1.680 c | 0.69% 13.76% | | | 石油基金LOF | | 0.263 10.01% | 2.890 c | 0.97% | 15.90% | | 车TLOF | | 0.204 10.01% | 2.241 c | 2.20% | 15.09% | | 石油LOF | 0.276 | 10.00% | 3.035 c | 1.99% | 16.17% | | 嘉实原油LOF | 0.172 | 10.00% | 1.892 c | 0.77% | 1 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 课题章》（3）后市分析：综上、预计短期避险或可继续支撑贵金属价格；中期需关注地缘局势进展和油价变化，价格仍有反复可能，但长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑 仍旧竖昌，在美联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不确定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望起球，贵 金属价格重心仍有上行空间，长线策略仍建议以逢低多配为主。 体我告中的意思均源于公开可获得的资料，匿因新货力求准展可靠。但不定上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本帮手不勾成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者带放的投资目标、好餐饮服求需要，投资 者需三行判体本报告中的任何意见就是还符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。本报告例向榜定客户的选。未经回贸联股股获评可，任河引用，转载以及向第三方传播的行为构构成定图贸股权规 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC 国贸期货 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/3/3 | | --- | --- | ...