8月25日，市九届人大常委会召开第二十五次会议，市人大常委会党组书记、主任李健主持会议。 会议听取和审议了市政府关于提请审议《镇江市南朝陵墓石刻保护条例（草案）》的议案，认为 《条例（草案）》具体内容和条款设置立足镇江实际、总体比较成熟，建议进一步修改完善。 会议表决通过了《镇江市城乡网格化社会治理条例》，同意进一步修改完善后报请省人大常委会批 准颁布实施；表决通过了《镇江市五级人大代表统一接待选民办法》。 会议审议了市政府关于2025年上半年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的书面报告。就做好下半年 工作，会议要求，紧抓项目招引建设、推动产业转型升级，加快培育新质生产力；全面对接重大战略、 用好用足宏观政策，充分释放内需潜力；扎实推进民生改善、防范化解风险隐患，确保社会大局和谐稳 定。 会议传达了习近平总书记近期重要讲话和中央重要会议精神，要求深刻领会习近平总书记重要讲话 精神，切实把思想和行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，主动服务中心大局，充分发挥立法保障、监督推 动和代表聚力作用，助力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务、实现"十四五"圆满收官。 会议听取和审议了市监委关于全市监察机关整治群众身边不正之风和腐败问题工作 ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.8.25 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 02 本周黑色行情预判 成材：供需双弱 钢价整理运行 Ø 逻辑：上周，247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率90.25%，环比增加0.03个百分点；钢厂盈利率64.94%，环比减少0.86个百分点； 日均铁水产量240.75万吨，环比增加0.09万吨。上周，全国90家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率56.67%，环比下降0.72个百 分点，同比上升22.48个百分点。平均开工率75.69%，环比下降0.69个百分点，同比上升24.72个百分点。成材上周震荡回落， 市场的交易逻辑回归行业基本面，双焦价格自高位回落，原料端的松动助推了钢价的调整。成材下游需求偏弱，且短期难有改 善，也是拖累价格下跌的主因。至于停限产，随着9.3阅兵临近，这在供需两端都会造成影响，京津冀及周边省份供应下降的 同时，工地施工也会有暂停，较难比较供需下降的幅度。 Ø 观点：近期波动较大，整体偏弱运行。 Ø 后期关注/市场风险：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 铁矿石：美联储降息预期强化 短期矿价偏强运行 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-08-25 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 8 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。 8 月 27 日 09:30，中国国家统计局将公布 7 月及 1-7 月规模以上工业企业利润。 8 月 28 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 2025 年第二季度 GDP 修正值。 8 月 29 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 7 月 PCE 物价指数。 8 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局与中国物流与采购联合会将公布中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、8 月官方非制 ...

首先，上周市场不受外部干扰，体现较强的韧性。上周海外市场出现一定调整和波动，A 股市场则不受其扰，体现出行情的独立性。我们认为主要源 于七月以来，包括基建投资和消费刺激等各项宏观政策的出台，稳定了投资者对于未来的预期。与此同时，低利率环境下，存款资金逐步增配权益资产也 正在悄然发生。新增资金入市成为推动市场不断反弹的主要动力。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 上周市场继续反弹，沪指再创本轮行情的新高。沪指上周一路向上反弹，周五以全天最高点，也是年内最高点收盘。深圳成指继续加速补涨，上周成 功越过了去年四季度的高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 25000 亿元，连续两周大幅放量。上周市场热点主要集中在 TMT和大消费行业。投资风 格方面，科技股涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指越过 2021 年市场高点，重心继续上移。沪指本月初突破了周线大箱体的顶部，这个位置已经从压力位转为了支撑位。上周 则继续向上攻击，周一便直接越过了 2021 年的市场高点，稍作整理后下半周继续上攻，目前仍然处于箱体上移进程。 ...

晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，供应方面变化不大，电解铝运行产量稳中小增。需求方 面，"金九银十"旺季临近，但目前在淡季影响下，终端到加工 ...

自去年9月份一系列政策"组合拳"推出以来，上证指数已从近2900点稳步攀升至超3700点。尤其是今年7 月份以来，市场动能进一步释放。近日，A股市场成交额连续多日突破2万亿元、两融余额时隔十年重 回2万亿元以上、上证指数创近十年新高……A股市场"升"机盎然，背后是我国宏观政策持续发力、精 准赋能所带来的强大动能。 随着宏观政策发力显效，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，并持续向资本市场传导，投资者信心稳步增强，资 金面与情绪面形成良性互动，市场内在稳定性显著提升，资产价值重估的坚实基础加速形成。从"政策 护航"到"经济韧性"，再到"市场稳定"乃至"价值重估"，一条清晰且环环相扣的正向循环链条已然形 成，为A股市场的持续健康发展注入深层动力。 政策力度稳 筑牢市场发展根基 去年9月24日，国新办发布会上宏观政策多箭齐发，涵盖了货币、地产、资本市场等多个维度；随后，9 月26日召开的中共中央政治局会议部署下一步经济工作，进一步释放了政策暖意。 此后，面对国内外经济环境的复杂局面与多重挑战，我国宏观政策始终锚定"稳中求进"总基调，通过货 币政策与财政政策的精准协同、跨周期调节与逆周期调节的有机结合，筑牢经济平稳健康发展的根基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure in July 2025, indicating a recovery in tax revenue and an increase in spending focused on public welfare and effective investment [5]. Group 1: Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue from January to July 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [3]. - Tax revenue has shown significant improvement, particularly in domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continues to decline [3]. - Local revenue growth outpaced central revenue, alleviating fiscal pressure at the grassroots level [3]. Group 2: Expenditure Analysis - National general public budget expenditure from January to July 2025 rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with July's expenditure growth rate also increasing [3]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints on revenue [3]. - Key areas of expenditure included health, social security, and employment, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [3]. Group 3: Government Fund and Debt - Government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, although July saw a high growth rate, which is attributed to a low base from the previous year [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance and utilization of bond funds, with local government special bonds and central financial institution injections contributing significantly [4]. Group 4: Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that July's fiscal data reflects positive changes, with improved tax revenue and accelerated local fiscal income helping to ease financial pressures [5]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [5]. - Despite these positive indicators, challenges remain in the economic landscape, particularly regarding real estate demand [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].