投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍弱势运行 核心观点 沪铜 本周沪铜偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大，振幅下降。盘面上看，本 周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行。宏观层面，市场持续关 注杰克逊霍尔会议动向，北京时间 22 日 22 时美联储主席鲍威尔将发 言，这是美联储 9 月议息会议前的重要讲话，若鲍威尔表现偏鸽，则 利好铜价。 沪铝 本周沪铝探底回升，持仓量呈现减仓下行增仓上行。盘面上看， 本周国内商品氛围冷却，有色板块承压运行，铝价强于板块。产业层 面，周四电解铝社库小幅去化，下游铝棒库存持续缓慢去化。宏观氛 围冷却， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, copper prices face pressure on the upside under weak economic expectations. However, based on the Sam Rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is also difficult to open. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the US economic fundamentals data in August [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disturbances and long - term overcapacity will continue to compete. It is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term. - For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this week is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Follow up on inventory changes and marginal demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference strategy is the main approach. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [6][7]. Zinc - The basic situation of loose supply and weak demand provides insufficient support for continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventory levels provide price support. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Tin - The US inflation slowdown and stronger interest - rate cut expectations drive tin prices to be relatively strong. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - at - high strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [14]. Nickel - The mid - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside space for prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Follow up on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 80,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. One can appropriately pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between near - and far - term contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remained at 79,150 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.02% to 78,935 yuan/ton, and SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,975 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, an increase of 3.94 million tons compared to the previous month; electrolytic copper imports were 25.31 million tons, an increase of 4.74 million tons compared to the previous month. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 20,640 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,650 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,363 yuan/ton, an increase of 182.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a 5.40% increase compared to the previous month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a 3.11% increase compared to the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in various regions remained unchanged. - The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a 1.63% increase compared to the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a 2.30% decrease compared to the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.13% to 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 117.55 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a 3.03% increase compared to the previous month; in June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a 34.97% increase compared to the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.97% to 270,600 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 31.44% to - 47.99 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 15,720.30 yuan/ton, a 5.17% increase compared to the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, an 11.44% decrease compared to the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a 6.94% decrease compared to the previous month [14]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.53% to 123,500 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.48% to 124,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was - 1,538 yuan/ton, a 2.29% decrease compared to the previous value [16]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a 10.04% decrease compared to the previous month; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a 116.90% increase compared to the previous month [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2510 monthly spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a 3.83% decrease compared to the previous month; stainless - steel imports were 10.95 million tons, a 12.48% decrease compared to the previous month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.70% to 78,000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.84% to 75,800 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 monthly spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month; lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a 2.62% increase compared to the previous month [21].

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant net outflow of over 10 billion yuan from the stock ETF market on the last trading day of July, coinciding with a drop in the A-share market where all three major indices fell by more than 1% [1][2][3] - In July, the stock market experienced substantial gains, leading to profit-taking by investors, which contributed to the net outflow from stock ETFs [2][8] - The total scale of the stock ETF market reached 3.77 trillion yuan, with a reduction of 6.628 billion units in total shares on the day of the market decline [3][4] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds was observed in the Hang Seng Technology Index, which saw a net inflow of 3.305 billion yuan, indicating a preference for this index amidst the overall market downturn [4][5] - Major fund companies, such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund, reported significant net inflows in their ETFs, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology ETFs, despite the overall market decline [7][8] - The outflow of funds was predominantly from broad-based ETFs, with the ChiNext ETF and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF experiencing the largest net outflows of 1.956 billion yuan and 1.765 billion yuan, respectively [9][10] Group 3 - Looking ahead to August, several institutions express optimism for continued upward movement in the A-share market, supported by improving fundamentals and liquidity conditions [12] - The upcoming earnings reports are expected to show marginal improvements in sectors such as technology, consumption, and midstream manufacturing, which may further support market performance [12]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE US cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.22 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 decreased 1.27% to 13,650 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 26,391 lots to 349,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - For sugar, consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - south region to 40.16 million tons, a reduction of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The expected total cane crush is 598.8 million tons, a 3.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with future import pressure gradually emerging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: International market: After the macro super - week, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. Powell's speech reduced market bets on a September rate cut, and the US dollar index approached 100. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market continues to shift, with the 09 contract reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread widening. The 09 contract's open interest has returned to the average level in recent years, and the net long positions of the main players have decreased. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: StoneX's report shows a reduction in Brazil's sugar production forecast due to heavy rainfall in June. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the main contract is shifting positions. The market is returning to fundamentals, and future import pressure is emerging [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 190, down 40; the main contract basis is 1,675, down 40. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130, and the national spot price is 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 140, up 10; the main contract basis is 262, down 9. The Nanning spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,055 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. 3. Market Information - On July 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous trading day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load remained flat at 49.3, and the yarn inventory rose to 29.6. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained flat at 47.8, and the inventory rose to 33.5 [4]. - On July 31, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][9][10][11][12]. - Charts for sugar include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17].

1. Report Overview - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down significantly, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55% (down from 57% the previous week), the budding rate was 80% (up from 71% the previous week), and the boll - setting rate was 44% (up from 33% the previous week). The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of cotton had different basis quotes. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - **Macro and Industry Situation**: The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the budding rate was 80%, and the boll - setting rate was 44%. The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve's September interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest - rate cut. The Fed modified its description of the economic situation, stating that "economic activity growth has slowed down in the first half of the year" and that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains at a high level" [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][25]. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday due to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, and it may still be worth allocating in the long - run [1][3] - Copper is predicted to decline in the short - term and be volatile in the medium - term. After the market has fully priced in the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st, it will focus on industry fundamentals, with supply expected to be relatively loose and demand fair, leading to an overall volatile trend [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement Logic**: After the market priced in the negative impact of the interest - rate meeting, there was an intraday rebound. With exchange - rate effects, the domestic gold market remained stable. Attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude and this Friday's non - farm payroll data. In the long - run, gold may still be a worthy investment [3] - **View Reference**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile [1] Copper - **Price Movement Logic**: After the market fully priced in the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st, copper will focus on industry fundamentals. In the medium - term, supply may be relatively loose while demand is fair, resulting in an overall volatile trend [4] - **View Reference**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile [1]

Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.5% for 2025, indicating a stable economic outlook[10] - Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.0% by the end of 2025, reflecting effective monetary policy measures[10] Market Trends - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 400-425 basis points is 96.9% for the meeting on July 30, 2025[8] - By September 17, 2025, the likelihood of rates being in the 375-400 basis points range is 63.6%[8] Investment Insights - The report highlights a potential increase in investment opportunities in sectors aligned with sustainable growth, particularly in technology and renewable energy[5] - Analysts recommend a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility, particularly in the current economic climate[5] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is projected to increase by 3.5% in 2025, driven by rising disposable incomes and consumer confidence[12] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to reflect a growth of 2.5% in the same period, indicating healthy consumer demand[9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.25% to 67.5 cents per pound on Wednesday, and the CF509 dropped by 1.89% to 13,755 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37,728 lots to 375,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level. After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 50%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and U.S. cotton prices were under pressure. Domestically, the 09 contract is reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread is narrowing. Considering the low commercial cotton inventory and the macro - sentiment, there may not be much downside for the 09 contract. For the 01 contract, pay attention to the Sino - U.S. negotiation results, and the short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The overall view is oscillating and slightly bearish [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable, and some processing sugar mills lowered their prices by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market is centered around Brazil's crushing progress without a clear direction. The domestic futures market is in the process of position transfer. The September contract is under pressure and has returned to around 5,800 points. The January contract has slightly stronger support due to the expected delayed start of the crushing season. The view is oscillating, and there is still a small upward space for the 9 - 1 spread [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,715 yuan, up 60 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan, and the national price was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis was 271 yuan, up 63 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou price was 6,075 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,343 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,512 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,468 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,610 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 30, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.5, up 0.1 [3]. - On July 30, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to high - cost support from coking coal, despite the general downstream demand affected by weather and the suppression of speculative demand by the correction of coking coal and coke futures [1]. - Gold is still in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term as the US tariff issue remains uncertain and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and non - farm data, while the US dollar index has limited upward momentum [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector, but the upward space in the long term should be viewed with caution as the downstream demand is resilient but production may increase [3]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to tight supply, cost support, and stable downstream demand [4]. - The bond market's logical main line is unclear. With the global economic recovery and the smooth progress of China - US talks, attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4]. - The national pig price continues to decline. It is recommended to short opportunistically and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm due to oversupply [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the substitution effect of soybean meal, the weakening of US soybean prices, and the expected increase in new supply. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - Polypropylene's PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the supply is abundant and the inventory is high [7]. - Silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The positive outlook for the global economy is fundamentally beneficial to silver, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term. International factors support the price, but the domestic market has a loose supply and weak demand [8]. - Soda ash's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see as the production is increasing, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is low - price - based [9]. - Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels as the US increases pressure on Russia and the market believes the trade war is weakening, and the inventory is not high [10][11]. - PTA should be short - term long at low levels as it follows crude oil, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation and weakening cost support [11]. - Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels as the weather is normal, there is a slight inventory reduction in China, and the downstream demand is improving [12]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the domestic production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is stable, and the port may accumulate inventory [13]. Summary by Variety Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: On July 29, domestic steel prices turned from falling to rising. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3441 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The national 136 - enterprise sample start - up rate was 33.33%, up 0.88% week - on - week, and the daily output was 14,615 tons, up 2.31% week - on - week. The weekly demand of five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, up 0.26% week - on - week. The inventory of 60 independent enterprises decreased by 2.22% [3]. - **Coke**: On July 29, mainstream steel mills raised the bid price for wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the US tariff issue and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, gold is in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: With the positive outlook for the global economy, silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: On July 29, the national average pork price was 20.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The national pig price is falling, and it is recommended to short opportunistically [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production, and rapeseed meal production increased month - on - month, while soybean - related data decreased. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia is expected to export more than 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East - China's drawn - grade polypropylene was 7117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1366 yuan/ton, with a recent price rebound. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: PXCFR was reported at 852 US dollars/ton. The PTA supply is expected to be abundant, and it should be short - term long at low levels [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Jiangsu Taicang market was 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels. Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand and China are relatively stable. The European replacement tire market sales decreased year - on - year. Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels [12].