Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic economy, highlighting three main lines: export under trade friction, investment and consumption driven by policy stimulus, and the real endogenous power of the economy. It notes a temporary phase of "grabbing exports 2.0" due to easing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the resilience of the economy in the second quarter [2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - There is a divergence in the growth rates of subsidized and non-subsidized consumption, with service consumption growth gradually declining, indicating little change in endogenous consumption momentum. From January to April, retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with "trade-in" consumption contributing 1.1 percentage points to this growth [3]. - The growth rate of service consumption has decreased from 20% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2024 and 5.1% in April 2025, suggesting a plateau after a rebound [3]. - The consumption subsidy policy is expected to support retail sales growth in the second quarter, with an anticipated increase of 4.5%-5% in retail sales and a final consumption growth of 4.3% [28]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The 924 policy in real estate has shown a diminishing effect, with sales facing adjustment pressures. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year change in domestic commercial housing sales area was -2.8%, a significant improvement from -17.1% in 2024 [12]. - The second-hand housing market has performed better, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, raising the proportion of second-hand housing sales [12]. - However, by April, second-hand housing sales began to cool down, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% in 11 sample cities, indicating a potential downturn in the market [12]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - Despite little change in endogenous economic momentum, consumption subsidies and export initiatives are expected to significantly support the economy in the second quarter, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the quarter [28]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by "equipment updates" and related projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively [28]. - The article anticipates a 3%-5% growth in exports in the second quarter, despite facing high base effects [30].

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【图说经济】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏 观团队。 中美航运数据出现转机 美东、美西航线运价大幅上升 " 出口总额 " 与 " 出口交货值 " 分化 各类群体消费信心普遍下降 地产 "930 小阳春 " 逐步降温 本期Headline 中美航运数据出现转机 船舶停靠量与集装箱吞吐量增加： 5月11-17日，美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量上升至19.0艘，4月均值为21.3艘；港口集装箱进口吞吐量环比增长 16.0%，结束了连续两周的下滑，开始由负转正，当周同比增速上升至-14.2%，4月末同比为56.0%。 集装箱预订量飙升： 贸易追踪机构Vizion公布的数据显示，在美国和中国互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集装箱运输预订量飙升近 300%。而从深圳盐田港船代公司了解到，中美相互调整关税正式实施后，美线货量已从5月初同比下降近50%，恢复到4月2日加税之前水平，并 且还有所增加。 01 02 美东美西航线运价大幅上升 美线集装箱运价大幅上升： 5月10-16日，上海港-美西基本港、上海港-美东基本港 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态 势。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，4月我国经济生产需求平稳增长，就业 形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长。 毕马威中国发布的2025年二季度《中国经济观察》报告指出："内需方面，得益于国内政策前置发力，居民消费、 企业投资显现出较强韧性；外需方面，在4月对等关税预期之下，企业抢出口活动热度较高。内需修复，外需走 强，国内生产热度也同步回升。" 不过，毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟也对本报记者提醒，后续经济表现仍存隐忧。内需方面，当前国内生产仍 然强于需求，物价仍在低位波动，一季度GDP平减指数为-0.8%，已经连续第八个季度为负；房企库存压力不减， 房地产企稳的前景仍不明朗；耐用消费品以旧换新消费政策刺激效果或将减弱。外需方面，短期因中美贸易谈判 取得实质性进展，关税降幅超预期，二季度我国出口仍有支撑，但后续中美博弈或长期拉锯，国际贸易形势依然 复杂多变，需要政府和企业提前布局。 "下阶段，要坚持稳中求进 ...

Economic Overview - In April, industrial and service sector weighted year-on-year growth was 6.1%, down from 6.8% in March but higher than the 5.7% in January-February[1] - April's export delivery value increased by only 0.9% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from March's 7.7%[2] - Retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from March, but still above 5%[4] Trade and Investment Insights - The contribution of export delivery value to industrial revenue dropped to approximately 0.1%, down from 0.8% in March, indicating a significant decline in export-driven growth[2] - Fixed asset investment in April showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with manufacturing investment slowing from 9.2% in March to 8.2% in April[3][6] - Equipment and tool purchases accounted for 64.5% of total investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% from January to April[6] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales in April saw a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in sales area and 6.7% in sales value, indicating a slowdown in the housing market[7] - The average price of new homes in April declined, with second-hand housing prices in 70 cities dropping by 0.4% month-on-month[7][8] - Financing for real estate development decreased by 4.1% year-on-year from January to April, reflecting a decline in pre-sale deposits and personal mortgage loans[7] Future Outlook - The potential for a new round of export growth is anticipated due to tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, which may lead to a surge in exports from mid-May to August[8] - Domestic policy adjustments may be delayed until August-September, with a focus on monetary easing as the economy stabilizes[9] - The stock market may experience narrow fluctuations, with a need for clear signals of fundamental recovery to drive further strength[9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 宏观经济宏观月报 4 月"抢出口"强化生产韧性，内需有所走弱 2025 年 5 月 19 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、4 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，比 3 月份回落 1.6 个百分 点； 2、4 月份，社会消费品零售总额 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，比 3 月份回 落 0.8 个百分点； 3、4 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）147024 亿元，同比增长 4.0%， 比 3 月回落 0.2 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长 8.0%； 4、4 月份，进出口总额 38391 亿元，同比增长 5.6%。其中，出口 22645 亿 元，增长 9.3%；进口 15745 亿元，增长 0.8%； 5、4 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.1%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，较上 年同月高 0.1 个百分点。 4 月国内经济增速约 5.1%，仍高于全年经济增速目标值。 整体来看，4 月中国经济维持稳定增长态势。4 月由于中美关税战急剧升温， 因此出现了通过转口贸易的"抢 ...

4月"出口表观不弱，内需相对不足"的基本面特征延续。国内4月进出口数据同比超市场预期，"抢出 口"与"抢转口"双管齐下，出口量的提升或并非来自实际外需回暖，5月出口数据对关税的反映可能更为 全面。内需不足仍是4月PPI的拖累因素之一，工业品价格延续负增长的趋势。4月融资需求增量主要来 自政府部门，居民和企业部门信贷需求相对较弱，价格水平偏低导致的实际利率偏高，抑制信贷需求。 站在更长周期视角来看，我国自2019年年末正式启动降息以来，当前仍处在降息周期当中，无论是公开 市场操作等政策利率还是存贷款等市场利率，下行仍然是大方向。考虑当前外部环境的诸多不确定性， 利率下行的趋势并未发生实质性改变，顺势而为或具有更高性价比。 结构上，国债收益率曲线陡峭化的趋势也未发生明显改变，但内在逻辑可能发生一定变化。在短期情绪 驱动下，长债自"双降"落地后的止盈调整压力或延续，大概率走出向下补缺口行情。考虑到投资者对短 期事件冲击的消化程度相对较快，短期调整或驱动配置资金逐步入场。（作者单位：中辉期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 央行"双降"后，中美贸易争端缓和，国内4月M2增速回升，政府债券发行加快，社融增速抬升，海内外 宏观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefins has been alleviated due to increased plant maintenance, new capacity from Huizhou ExxonMobil, and the "China-US tariff" benefit. However, the inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, leading to high de-stocking pressure. The market may trade based on the "rush to export" logic, and downstream demand may improve in the future. The seasonal decline in agricultural film production is observed, while the operating rates of other industries remain stable, mainly driven by rigid demand. With the significant drop in crude oil prices, the cost support for polyolefins is weak. The production profit of PDH-based PP is slightly in the red, and there are many PDH plants under maintenance. Future attention should be paid to the restart plans of PDH plants [2] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for plastics on a single-side basis, and no cross-period strategy is proposed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,298 yuan/ton (-41), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,161 yuan/ton (-32). The spot price of LL in North China is 7,430 yuan/ton (+30), and in East China is 7,450 yuan/ton (+50). The spot price of PP in East China is 7,250 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is 132 yuan/ton (+71), in East China is 152 yuan/ton (+91), and the basis of PP in East China is 89 yuan/ton (+32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 79.5% (-4.5%), and the operating rate of PP is 76.6% (-3.2%). The oil-based production profit of PE is 515.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), the oil-based production profit of PP is 125.8 yuan/ton (+141.7), and the production profit of PDH-based PP is -273.7 yuan/ton (-7.1) [1] 3. Non-standard Price Spread of Polyolefins - Not provided in the given content 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - The import profit of LL is -81.8 yuan/ton (+13.3), the import profit of PP is -361.9 yuan/ton (-123.4), and the export profit of PP is 12.2 US dollars/ton (-6.1) [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit of Polyolefins - The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 16.7% (-2.8%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.7% (+1.1%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 45.3% (+0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 59.9% (+2.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of polyolefin producers has accumulated significantly, and the de-stocking pressure is high, but specific inventory data is not provided [2]

2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？ ——《见微知著》第二十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05-12） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 要点 核心观点： 当前美国对自华进口关税税率整体水平大概在 47.1%-49.9%。在新关税水平下，我 国产品仍然具备较强的价格优势。美自华进口单价低于自全世界（除中国外）进口 单价的产品种类占比小幅下降 7.9 个百分点至 54.5%。毛毯、动植物油脂、人造纤 维针织品、吸尘器、椅子、手套、壁挂式空调、鞋靴、运动用品、床上用品等细分 产品的价格优势或面临挑战。 由于前期积压订单释放以及美国进入圣诞备货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between the US and China has led to a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US, indicating a rebound in trade volume and a shift in supply chain dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Volume and Order Dynamics - Following the tariff reductions, container shipping bookings from China to the US surged nearly 300% [2]. - Companies are experiencing increased urgency from US clients for order fulfillment, with many clients prioritizing production and shipment of US orders [4]. - The demand for products such as herbicides is expected to rise due to previous tariff-related supply shortages in the US market [4]. Group 2: Shipping Rates and Market Conditions - Shipping rates for routes to the US have begun to rise, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for the US West Coast increasing by 10.2% [5]. - Despite a projected 20% decline in China's exports to the US by April 2025, the current demand for Chinese manufacturing remains strong [5][6]. Group 3: Resilience of Chinese Manufacturing - Chinese manufacturers have not seen a significant loss of clients due to tariffs, with many reporting an increase in orders instead [6]. - Companies like 华利集团 and 锐明技术 have maintained or even increased their order volumes, indicating strong resilience in the face of tariff challenges [6][9]. Group 4: Capacity Diversification and Global Strategy - Companies are exploring capacity diversification to mitigate supply chain risks, with some considering production facilities in regions like Southeast Asia and South America [8][9]. - The establishment of overseas production bases is seen as a strategy to reduce trade barriers and logistics costs while maintaining a global supply chain [9].