Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate prices have been rising, with futures breaking the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, driven by strong demand and accelerated inventory depletion [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement - As of October 24, lithium carbonate futures closed at 75,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.81%, while spot prices rose for six consecutive days, reaching 75,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.8% [1] - The recent price surge is attributed to robust demand from both the energy storage and automotive sectors, with a significant year-on-year increase in the production of cathode materials [1][3] Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since August, the lithium carbonate market has been in a de-stocking phase, with weekly inventory reported at 130,400 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from the previous week [2] - The current inventory depletion rate is exceeding seasonal norms, indicating strong demand and optimistic market expectations for future demand [2][3] Group 3: Demand Insights - The demand for new energy electric vehicles and energy storage has surpassed expectations, with domestic sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 35% year-on-year in the first nine months [3] - The energy storage market has also seen a significant uptick, with overseas orders for energy storage systems increasing by nearly 132% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the current high inventory levels, the monthly demand from downstream industries is approaching 120,000 tons, suggesting that the market can sustain higher prices [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations around the 80,000 yuan/ton mark are seen as a normal adjustment, with potential for further increases if inventory continues to deplete and demand remains strong [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

Report Summary Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 77,140 yuan/ton and closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, with a 4.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 490,920 lots, and the open interest was 419,147 lots, compared to 353,231 lots the previous day. The current basis is -3,520 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,759 lots, a change of -260 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 74,000 - 75,600 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,950 - 73,150 yuan/ton, also a change of 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously increasing, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - The weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate link increased slightly. The recent consumer side has strong support [2]. Core View - The recent rebound of the futures market is mainly affected by continuous inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumer support. Currently, there is some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the market. After the recent continuous rise of the market, the futures market has a large premium over the spot. It is expected that the willingness of upstream hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may change from reduction to accumulation, and the market may decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. If the market continues to rebound, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis and a slight increase in steel prices. However, the inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market remains prominent. The short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The iron ore market has seen a small rebound. With the successful first shipment from Simandou, the overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices, and the subsequent demand is expected to weaken as steel mill profit shrinks and production cut expectations increase [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows that the futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, and the elimination of backward coking capacity is accelerating. The overall supply of coking coal is slightly shrinking, and the demand for coke is showing a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a significant increase in coal prices due to strong downstream demand. Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large, and the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main steel futures contract rose on a month - on - month basis. The production of building materials and hot - rolled coils in the country declined this week, inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the apparent demand rebounded on a month - on - month basis. The overall spot steel trading was average, with prices basically stable or slightly rising, and a strong willingness to sell at low prices [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years. The industrial side needs to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to relieve the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure. The high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market is still prominent. Short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and the steel inventory pressure cannot be ignored [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price rebounded slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 1.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.56%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 0.866 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.9%. The first shipment from Simandou was successful recently, and it is expected to achieve the target smoothly in the future [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The current overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices. As steel mill profit shrinks, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and the subsequent iron ore demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project's shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures prices oscillated strongly. In the imported coal market, traders were cautious, and quotes fluctuated with the market, with a general trading atmosphere. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, affecting the local supply decline. Wuhai and Ordos are accelerating the elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, involving a total production capacity of more than 10 million tons [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: For coking coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, and environmental protection restrictions have affected domestic production, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply. The downstream blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output have declined slightly, and enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand with weak restocking willingness. For coke, some coking enterprises are at the break - even point due to rising coal prices, and the production enthusiasm is limited. Coupled with the elimination of backward production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the coke supply is restricted. Steel mills have large inventory pressure, and the molten iron output is declining, so the actual demand for coke shows a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillate [7]. - Coke: Oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, recent safety inspections are strict, the number of coal mines with production suspension and reduction has increased, the overall supply has tightened, the upstream quotes are firm, and the downstream terminal demand is continuously released, so the pit - mouth coal price continues to rise. At ports, the coal price is running strongly. The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway is still in the maintenance stage, the shipping volume increase is limited, and the port inventory accumulation speed is relatively slow. In the import market, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, downstream tenders are gradually increasing, and the import bid price has increased slightly [7]. - Supply - demand and logic: Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large. The downstream winter storage demand is good, and the non - power coal demand is strong, so the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polyolefin market continues to face pressure due to limited demand growth. Both PE and PP are in a situation of loose supply - demand and weak cost support. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6883 yuan/ton (+4), PP main contract at 6583 yuan/ton (+18). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6560 yuan/ton (-20). LL North China basis was -3 yuan/ton (-4), LL East China basis 67 yuan/ton (-4), PP East China basis -23 yuan/ton (-38) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 515.6 yuan/ton (+23.5), PP oil - based production profit was -94.4 yuan/ton (+23.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 122.3 yuan/ton (+12.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -147.2 yuan/ton (+3.0), PP import profit was -560.1 yuan/ton (+13.0), PP export profit was 29.7 dollars/ton (-1.6) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream woven开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and weakening cost support from falling oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new production and restart of some devices. Demand growth is limited, mainly for rigid needs. Cost support is weakening. Future focus is on cost - side and macro - policy impacts [2]. - **PP**: The weakening of PP is dragged by falling oil and propane prices, and loose supply - demand. Supply is increasing with new production expected. Demand growth is insufficient, inventory is high, and cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to propane supply and PDH marginal device operations [3]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect short - term weak and volatile market [4]. - **Inter - Period**: Conduct L01 - L05 reverse arbitrage; PP01 - PP05 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Inter - Variety**: Short PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, it currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. - For PTA, supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, a 22.68% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, a 12.56% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels, an 8.20% increase [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, a 0.17% decrease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: No specific strategy viewpoint is provided other than for the overall energy market situation. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 13 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan, at 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6, at - 20 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed due to port fees, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan decreased by 10 yuan. Most areas remained stable, with only a few areas seeing price drops. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan, at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 79. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5, at - 75 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, affecting rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 18.70 percentage points from the previous week and 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.37%, up 23.50 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.73 percentage points from the same period last year. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025, a 0.7% decrease [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 3 yuan, at 4699 yuan. The spot price of SG - 5 in Changzhou was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 99 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan). The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.7%, down 5.9% from the previous period; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.7%, down 8.2%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.2%, down 8.6%. Factory inventory was 36 million tons (- 2.3 million tons), and social inventory was 103.4 million tons (- 0.3 million tons) [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5430 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5476 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract increased by 73 yuan/ton to 6438 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 38.81%, up 0.27% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6883 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6975 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%, down 0.11%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45%, up 0.64%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract increased by 18 yuan/ton to 6583 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6615 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.04%. The LL - PP spread was 300 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 64 yuan to 6332 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 1 dollar to 784 dollars. The basis was 78 yuan (- 59 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 10 yuan (+ 6 yuan). The Chinese PX load was 84.9%, down 2.5%; the Asian load was 78%, down 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 246 dollars (+ 5 dollars), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 dollars (- 11 dollars) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The new PTA device commissioning expectation suppresses the PTA processing fee, making it difficult to deplete PX inventory. It currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 30 yuan to 4414 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4320 yuan. The basis was - 88 yuan (- 3 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 10 was 216 million tons, up 5.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 115 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 12 yuan to 260 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, leading to a slight inventory increase. The processing fee is difficult to expand due to weak forward expectations. The polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure in the demand side are low, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 1 yuan to 4004 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan to 4075 yuan. The basis was 74 yuan (+ 2 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (+ 4 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, up 2.5%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 5.3 million tons, and the East China departure on October 20 was 0.56 million tons. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 436 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 706 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 253 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price decreased to 780 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 660 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - For zinc, the short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 84,390, down 1,520 (-1.77%) from October 10. The spot price was 84,835, down 1,840 (-2.12%) [7] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 20,910, down 70 (-0.33%) from October 10. The spot price was 20,960, down 60 (-0.29%) [7] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 21,815, down 455 (-2.04%) from October 10. The spot price was 21,856, down 854 (-3.76%) [7] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 280,750, down 5,600 (-1.96%) from October 10. The spot price was 281,250, down 7,000 (-2.43%) [7] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 121,160, down 1,020 (-0.83%) from October 10. The spot price was 122,780, down 1,080 (-0.87%) [7] 3.2 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast 3.2.1 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price remained high. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. The shutdown of the US federal government has hindered the release of key macro - economic data. Domestically, the operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, and the supply surplus pressure still exists. As winter storage approaches, the spot procurement enthusiasm of some aluminum plants has increased, but the overall spot market is still in a state of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5% last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [9] - Viewpoint: The macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical crisis, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [11] 3.2.2 Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price回调 downward. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates continued to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing operating rate last week was 58.05%, up 11.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of October 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [13] - Viewpoint: The short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine - end production, and the release of consumption [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan in the week of October 17 was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the average price of the imported bauxite index was 74.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 from the week of October 10 [17] - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of October 17 was 3743,700 tons, up 878,500 tons from the week of October 10; the departure volume at ports was 406,390 tons, up 24,130 tons from the week of October 10 [20] - Alumina: - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan in the week of October 17 was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the full cost was 2,851.5 yuan/ton, down 25.1 from the week of October 10; the profit in Shanxi was - 60.06 yuan/ton, down 32.72 from the week of October 10 [23] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: The total cost in the week of October 17 was 16,144.6 yuan/ton, down 68.1 from the week of October 10 [27] - Regional price difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum in the week of October 17 was - 110 yuan/ton, down 40 from the week of October 10 [27] - Operating rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables in the week of October 16 was 64, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 72.3, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 68, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 53.5, down 0.1 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, up 0.4 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6, down 0.3 from the week of October 9 [29][30] - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai in the week of October 16 was 60,300 tons, down 5,000 tons from the week of October 9; the total bonded area inventory was 80,300 tons, down 7,000 tons from the week of October 9; the social inventory in the week of October 20 was 625,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from the week of October 13; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas in the week of October 13 was 145,000 tons, unchanged from the week of September 29; the SHFE inventory in the week of October 17 was 122,028 tons, down 2,749 tons from the week of October 10; the LME inventory in the week of October 16 was 491,225 tons, down 17,600 tons from the week of October 9 [35][36] - Spot: - Basis: The basis for the current month in the week of October 17 was 65 yuan/ton, up 65 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 40 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10 [41] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [42] 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrates in the week of October 17 was 16,924 yuan/metal ton, down 210 from the week of October 10; the domestic processing fee was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, down 100 from the week of October 10; the imported processing fee was 118.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.2 from the week of October 10 [49] - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit in the week of October 17 was 4,024 yuan/metal ton, down 260 from the week of October 10; the import profit and loss was - 2,255.38 yuan/ton, down 177.47 from the week of October 10; the inventory of imported zinc concentrates at Lianyungang in the week of October 17 was 140,000 physical tons, unchanged from the week of October 10 [52] - Refined zinc: - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions in the week of October 20 was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from the week of October 13; the bonded area inventory of zinc ingots in the week of October 16 was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the week of October 9; the SHFE refined zinc inventory in the week of October 17 was 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons from the week of October 10; the LME zinc inventory in the week of October 16 was 38,025 tons, up 75 tons from the week of October 9 [55] - Galvanized: - Output: The output in the week of October 16 was 336,490 tons, up 58,860 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Operating rate: The operating rate in the week of October 16 was 58.05, up 11.22 from the week of October 9 [58] - Inventory: The raw material inventory in the week of October 16 was 13,910 tons, down 1,650 tons from the week of October 9; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, down 3,700 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Zinc: - Basis: The basis for the current month of SMM 0 zinc ingots in the week of October 17 was 35 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 35 yuan/ton, up 5 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [61] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton, up 20 from the week of October 10 [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the destocking rhythm accelerated, which supported the price and led to a rebound in the market [1][10][11] - In the future, the fundamentals of continuous destocking during the peak season support the price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disturbances. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking and the volume and price in the spot market. In terms of strategies, short - term interval operations are recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities after the peak demand within the year are worth noting. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [2][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Destocking Acceleration and Warehouse Receipt Cancellation, Lithium Price Breaks through the Oscillation Range - Last week (10/13 - 10/17), lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. LC2510's closing price increased by 3.6% to 75,300 yuan/ton, and LC2511's increased by 4.1% to 75,700 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3% to 73,400 and 71,100 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5%. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate slightly widened to 270 yuan/ton [10][11] - Last week, warehouse receipts were continuously cancelled and taken out of storage, with a week - on - week reduction of 12,000 tons to 30,700 tons. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 132,700 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. The continuous improvement of explicit inventory data supported the price, and the market sentiment recovered [1][11] 3.2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining: Its subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days, and it is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [13] - Beijing Easpring signed an MoU with AMG to purchase lithium hydroxide. The cooperation shows their commitment to building a local battery supply chain, and they will work together to ensure the certification of AMG's production base and negotiate a binding purchase agreement [13] - Hainan Mining's Mali Bugoni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of lithium concentrate products on October 14. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for the company's lithium salt processing project [14] - Tianqi Lithium: The 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard on October 17, 2025. The company will continue to optimize the project for continuous and stable production [14] 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remain Stable - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 846 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 US dollars or 0.8% [11] 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Stabilizes and Rebounds - The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [10][11] 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes of Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Surge - The spot average prices of ternary materials 523, 622, and 811 increased by 9.6%, 3.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The spot average price of lithium cobaltate increased by 14.6% [11] 3.3.4. Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [36]