Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

Group 1 - The US dollar is expected to decline by approximately 2% against major currencies in August due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with the dollar index currently at 97.917 and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1] - President Trump has increased his influence over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to dismiss her, raising concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][3] - The yield on short-term US Treasury bonds is being suppressed by rate cut expectations, while long-term yields are rising due to inflation concerns and policy risks, resulting in a steepening of the yield curve with a 57 basis point spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds, the steepest since April [3] Group 2 - Market participants are adopting a pragmatic approach regarding the risks to the Fed's independence, choosing to remain cautious in the short term [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 86%, up from 63% a month ago, with investors betting on cumulative cuts exceeding 100 basis points by mid-2025 [3] - The upcoming PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a reading above 3% potentially intensifying doubts about a shift in Fed policy [4]

Group 1: US Economic Data and Market Performance - Strong US economic data has driven US stocks higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.53%, and S&P 500 closing at 6501.86, marking a new historical high, the 19th record since 2025 [1] - Traders are exercising caution, waiting for more inflation data to guide their decisions on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and AI Sector - Analysts from Northlight Asset Management and UBS express confidence in the US stock market, predicting the S&P 500 could reach 6800 by June 2026, driven by AI-related growth opportunities [4] - The growth of AI is supported by substantial revenue generation, with OpenAI and Anthropic accounting for 88% of AI-native revenue, indicating a real cash flow rather than speculative hype [5] Group 3: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, exceeding market expectations, and has established a core position in AI infrastructure despite slight underperformance in data center business [8] - Following Nvidia's earnings report, at least 10 institutions raised their 12-month price targets for Nvidia, with an average increase of 3% to $202.60, indicating approximately 12% upside potential from the closing price [9] Group 4: Small-Cap Stocks and Market Dynamics - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, is showing signs of recovery, with a 7.3% increase since August, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts boost investor sentiment [15][16] - Analysts suggest that small-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks in a declining interest rate environment, as they are more sensitive to changes in borrowing costs [16] Group 5: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is shifting from overvalued tech giants to undervalued small-cap stocks, as investors prepare for potential style rotation amid improving macroeconomic conditions [20] - Some market professionals recommend using options strategies to capture potential upside in the Russell 2000 index while managing risk, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook on small-cap stocks [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation." The weak reality lies in the expected decline in demand in the second half of the year, while the stable expectation is that the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of domestic stimulus policies will boost the price. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and entering a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: The market is in an overall supply - surplus pattern. Although cost support and some factory overhauls exist, the short - term weakness is hard to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. Mid - term, one can consider short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the short term, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. However, supply pressure remains, and cost support is weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The supply of scrap aluminum is tightening, and costs are under pressure. Demand in the communication die - casting sector is picking up, while that in the automotive sector is still weak. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the depletion of overseas inventories provides price support. The short - term may still be dominated by oscillations. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts the upward movement of tin prices. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly, short - selling on rallies is the main strategy; if the recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is stabilizing, and costs provide certain support. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term is expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the market sentiment is still cautious due to weak spot demand. The short - term is expected to oscillate within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply contraction expectations are gradually being realized, and demand is showing a positive trend. The short - term price has limited downward space, and upward breakthroughs require new drivers. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.45% to 79,190 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 168.48 yuan/ton to 337 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The electrolytic copper import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped by 0.53% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. Monthly Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in the southwest region dropped by 0.48% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in various regions decreased [4]. Monthly Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.63% to 22,130 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 145.76 yuan/ton to 1,664 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [6]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.07% to 271,800 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium dropped by 4.62% to 165 dollars/ton. The import loss increased by 7.11% to 19,581 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.14% to 121,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 dropped by 4 dollars/ton to - 189 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 490 yuan/ton to - 1,430 yuan/ton [10]. Monthly Data - The Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while the refined nickel import volume increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The prices of most raw materials remained stable, while the price of 304 waste stainless steel in Wenzhou dropped by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The stainless steel import volume decreased by 33.30% to 7.30 million tons, and the export volume increased by 6.74% to 41.63 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 1.96% to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 2.02% to 77,700 yuan/ton [16]. Monthly Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40% [16].

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently trading around 1.1663, showing a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 1.1678, after a two-month consolidation phase [1] - The euro has experienced a significant rise over the past six months, moving from 1.0118 to 1.1829, with a recent low during the consolidation phase at 1.1391 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may announce an interest rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 17, which could act as a catalyst for a renewed upward trend in the euro to dollar exchange rate [1] Group 2 - Initial resistance for the euro to dollar exchange rate is seen at the August 22 high of 1.1742, followed by the July 24 weekly high of 1.1788 and the year-to-date high of 1.1830 from July 1, 2025 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks above this resistance zone, it may target the September 2021 high of 1.1909, just below the 1.2000 level [2] - Short-term support is focused on the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1495, with further support levels at the August low of 1.1391 and the May 29 weekly low of 1.1210 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, there may be a small - scale shock adjustment, and it is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next direction. In the bond market, it is mainly in a range - bound state, and short - term unilateral strategies for bond futures can be on hold [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a V - shaped reversal. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures all rose, and the basis of the main contracts all increased. The trading volume of A - shares remained high, and the central bank had a net investment. Due to the rapid inflow of short - term leveraged funds, there is a certain risk of a small - scale shock adjustment. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next direction [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The stock market strengthened, and the sentiment in the bond market weakened. Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose. The central bank had a net investment, and the inter - bank market funds were slightly looser. The bond market is currently in a range - bound state, and short - term unilateral strategies for bond futures can be on hold [5][7]. Precious Metals - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continued to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals strengthened approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range. International gold and silver prices both rose. In the short term, gold may冲击 the previous high resistance level of $3450, and it is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread strategy of buying and selling gold call options. For silver, it is recommended to hold long positions [10][12]. Container Shipping Futures - The main contract of EC showed a weak trend. Spot prices continued to decline, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 10 - and 12 - month contracts at high prices [13][14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range. The spot price decreased slightly, and the supply is expected to be relatively stable. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory shows a pattern of LME and COMEX inventory accumulation and domestic social inventory depletion. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 78000 - 80000 [16][18][20]. - **Alumina**: The disk continued to run weakly, and the surplus pressure was prominent. The spot price declined, the supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment has improved, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be realized. The spot price decreased slightly, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 [22][23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Inventory accumulation continued, policy changes affected costs, and the spot price was firm. The supply is affected by the off - season, and the demand has marginal improvement. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals had limited support for the price. The spot price decreased, the supply was loose, and the demand was in the off - season. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [28][29][30]. - **Tin**: After the State Council issued relevant policies, the tin price continued to be strong. The spot price was high, the supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The sentiment was slightly adjusted, and the disk fluctuated. The fundamentals changed little. The spot price decreased, the supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in an interval adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk maintained a shock, and there was a game between cost support and weak demand. The spot price was stable, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected to be in an interval shock, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The sentiment weakened again, and the main contract broke through downward. The fundamentals maintained a slight production reduction and inventory depletion. The spot price decreased, the supply was in a tight balance, and the demand was stable and optimistic. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][42][43]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price maintained a weak decline. The spot price increased slightly, the cost support weakened, the supply was high, and the demand decreased seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The price of the 2601 contract showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuated weakly, and the coal mine had a slight inventory accumulation. The futures price showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 01 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, and the eighth round was initiated. The futures price showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [52][53][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market news is complex, and the long - term bullish expectation remains unchanged. The domestic spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The supply of US soybeans is strong and the demand is weak, while the cost of domestic meal has strong support. It is recommended to go long at low prices when the price is in the range of 3000 - 3050 [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: The spot price fluctuated weakly. The breeding end continued to resume slaughter, and the downstream slaughter and acquisition were relatively smooth. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 01 contract at around 13800 [61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price was weak, and the futures price rebounded due to position reduction and the increase in the opening price. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to the growth of new - season corn [63][64].

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks surged, with China Gold International, Zhaojin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold rising over 5%, while Lingbao Gold and Tongguan Gold increased over 4%, and China Silver Group and Zijin Mining rose over 3% [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which analysts believe could lead to Trump gaining control over four seats at the Fed, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [3] - The dismissal is expected to increase rate cut expectations, driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies [3] - Selena Ling from OCBC Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed's September meeting, with a total potential reduction of up to 75 basis points for the year, predicting five rate cuts over the next two years [3] - Ling projects gold prices to reach $3,570 per ounce by the end of the year and $3,850 by mid-next year, driven by ongoing demand from central banks, institutions, and retail investors, alongside geopolitical and political factors [3]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国二季度GDP数据被上修，美元继续回落，金价连续第五个交易日走 高；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一， 10年期美债收益率跌3.29个基点报4.201%；美元指数跌0.04%报98.19，离岸人民币 对美元小幅升值报7.1523；COMEX黄金期货涨0.82%报3476.9美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.22，现货780.22，基差-3，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单39504千克，增加2001千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线 ...

Report Overview - The report is the precious metals and non - ferrous metals morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 29, 2025, covering gold and copper [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure in the volatile range [1] - For copper, short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being volatile and bullish. It is recommended to wait and see. The core logic is that the domestic and foreign macro - environment has cooled, and as the domestic peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, the gold price continued to rise. New York gold reached above $3450, London gold reached above $3400, and Shanghai gold reached above 785 yuan [3] - **Driving Factors**: Nvidia's third - quarter guidance was not bright, and its trend was weakening, which may give gold a safe - haven premium. Since Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend. The relatively small increase of Shanghai gold is largely due to the appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of continuous appreciation [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price oscillated and stabilized yesterday, and maintained a volatile and bullish trend at night, approaching the 79,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Driving Factors**: The decline in copper price may be due to the short - term decline in overseas risk appetite, and the entire non - ferrous metal sector generally fell after the Asian session yesterday. On the industrial side, as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The copper position has decreased significantly compared with July, indicating a significant decrease in capital attention, and the volatility may continue to be at a low level. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]