交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：随着春节假期临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端逐步放假，PTA供需趋累，现货市场商谈清淡，预计年前PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注商品氛围及上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5180，05合约基差-80，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.74天，环比增加0.16天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：基本面来看，1-2月乙二醇季节性强累库预期依旧存在，但中期供需结构存在适度好转。海外装置存在推迟重启以及新增 检修量，二季 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 11, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to 4131.99, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 14160.93, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 3284.74. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2001.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4713.82, a decrease of 10.48 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted index of coke showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1672.6, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous day. Spot price increases have been implemented, and coke enterprises' profits have recovered, with a slight increase in production enthusiasm. However, environmental protection restrictions still have an impact, and the weekly high - frequency data shows a slight increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises. Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically over [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak consolidation, closing at 1134.9 yuan, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous day. The scope of Spring Festival shutdowns in domestic coal mines has expanded this week, and domestic coal supply has entered a seasonal low, with production decreasing month - on - month. Spot supply is tight, and high - frequency data shows that Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, with continuous replenishment of imported resources. Coke enterprises' inventory preparation is basically completed, and they mainly purchase on demand, with pig iron production stabilizing at a low level [3][4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, US sugar oscillated and declined on Tuesday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long - position liquidation pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Tuesday that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season starting in October is expected to reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, helped by the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory/use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%, much higher than the 13.5% level that the USDA usually considers sufficient for the market. The estimated sugar import volume in the 2025/26 season is 2.24 million short tons, lower than the 3.39 million short tons in the previous season, which will be one of the lowest import volumes in recent years [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the decrease in raw material supply, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia were raised today. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term increase, affected by the technical side, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted at night, with varieties rising and falling. The latest data shows that the natural rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire in January 2026 was 163,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with 166,000 tons in the same period last year and a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Vietnam's rubber export volume in January was 204,954 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% but a year - on - year increase of 27.3% [4]. 2.4. Palm Oil - On February 11, the palm oil futures continued to operate weakly before the festival. The market oscillated within the daily range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a doji candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8886, and the closing price was 8950, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous trading day. According to the POC 2026 industry conference, driven by the low inventory level, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in 2026 is expected to reach 16 million tons, while the annual total output may be slightly lower than 20 million tons. Global palm oil industry analyst Thomas Mielke expects the price of Malaysian RBD palm olein to be between $1000 - $1200 per ton in the first half of 2026 and between $1100 - $1350 per ton in the second half of 2026 [5]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - International Market: On February 11 (Wednesday), CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The USDA's February supply - demand report was as expected, only slightly increasing the South American soybean production forecast. The report raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast from 178 million tons last month to 180 million tons, higher than market expectations. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural said that as of February 5, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress had reached 16%, higher than 15% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, significantly increasing the supply capacity to the international market. - Domestic Market: On February 11, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2773 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the soybean crushing volume was relatively high, the soybean meal output increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The purchase of imported soybeans for the March shipment has been basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will significantly increase. The pre - holiday demand boost effect has declined, and the expectation of loose supply has been continuously postponed. It is recommended to focus on the South American weather changes and the soybean arrival volume in the future [5]. 2.6. Live Pigs - On February 11 (Wednesday), the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding side has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. Moreover, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and the suitable - weight pig sources are facing over - supply pressure, with the overall market supply tending to be loose. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' inventory replenishment has increased, providing phased support for pig prices, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the future, focus on the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract opened at 101,660, reached a high of 102,530, a low of 101,510, and closed at 102,180, with a settlement price of 101,930. The trading volume was 94,600 lots, and the open interest was 159,000 lots. It oscillated slightly stronger within a narrow range during the day and closed slightly higher at the end of the session. Downstream industries (cables, home appliances, infrastructure) have successively stopped work, the spot demand has weakened, and the trading has been light. The average price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper was 101,430 (- 550, - 0.54%); SMM No. 1 copper was 101,100 - 101,530 (average price - 410). The futures were stronger than the spot, the basis weakened, and the funds were more cautious approaching the Spring Festival. The LME copper in the external market also strengthened slightly, and the domestic sentiment was relatively stable. In the future, pay attention to the US CPI data, which may affect the overall rhythm of the US dollar and non - ferrous metals [5]. 2.8. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,815 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 60 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, and China's imported cotton volume in 2025 reached a five - year low [5]. 2.9. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 772 on Wednesday, with a low of 772, a high of 780.5, and a close of 777, with a daily reduction of 553 lots. There are still two trading days before the festival. Pay attention to the support from the spot side and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 11, the spot market quotes for logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the external market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. In the future, pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore - On February 11, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.07% and a closing price of 762.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore in this period decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mills' inventory replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of pig iron production was limited. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11. Asphalt - On February 11, the main asphalt contract 2604 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.51% and a closing price of 3373 yuan. The asphalt supply remained at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure was not large, the terminal demand continued to shrink, the pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [6]. 2.12. Steel - On February 11, rb2605 closed at 3054 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3228 yuan/ton. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, more steel enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. Although steel enterprises are in the process of shutdown and maintenance, the downstream terminal demand has basically stagnated, the steel spot inventory has continued to accumulate, the supply and demand are difficult to form a large gap, the supply and demand basically maintain a weak balance structure, most merchants are cautious and wait - and - see, and the situation of having prices but no transactions is obvious [6]. 2.13. Alumina - On February 11, ao2605 closed at 2842 yuan/ton. Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants maintain full production to provide rigid demand, but the construction in terminal fields such as construction has declined due to the approaching Spring Festival. On the cost side, the prices of bauxite and caustic soda have declined, and the cost - side support has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern of alumina still maintains a relatively loose pattern, the upward driving force is limited, and the alumina price maintains an oscillating operation in the low - level range [6]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 11, al2603 closed at 23,660 yuan/ton. On the macro side, the market atmosphere has continued to weaken before the Spring Festival, precious metals have continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level, and the capital sentiment is relatively mild. Continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the aluminum - water ratio continues to decline, the ingot - casting volume increases, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and it is continuously at a high level year - on - year. On the demand side, the performance continues to shrink, the logistics and transportation have stagnated, downstream enterprises in Central China have made sporadic inventory replenishment, large - scale traders in South China have received goods, and the overall trading has slowed down. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain demand, the orders of small and medium - sized factories continue to shrink, and the scope of shutdowns and production cuts in small and medium - sized factories has expanded, with limited driving force for prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: With limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report lacks highlights, and it is likely to trade within a range [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][11]. - **Soybean**: The market is strong, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [2][11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to be slightly bullish and fluctuate upwards [2][14]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities [2][18]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend before the holiday [2][23]. - **Eggs**: It is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][27]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season stocking is over, and the futures price has a premium over the small - standard warehouse receipts [2][35]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to trade sideways [2][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract on the day session was 8,906 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38%, and 8,868 yuan/ton at night, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 91,226 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,350 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 44 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and the production decreased by 7.58%. Indonesia's decision to suspend the expansion of biodiesel blending ratio and the expectation of increased production in the coming months may put pressure on palm oil prices, but strong demand and overall slowdown in production growth may limit the downside. The GAPKI expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4,100 - 4,400 ringgit per ton in the first half of 2026 and then decline to 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit in the second half [5][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2605 was 4,519 yuan/ton during the day session, up 60 yuan (+1.35%), and 4,563 yuan at night, up 62 yuan (+1.38%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,773 yuan/ton during the day session, up 40 yuan (+1.46%), and 2,768 yuan at night, up 10 yuan (+0.36%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.54 million tons per day, and the inventory was 88.16 million tons per week [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 11, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. Brazil has started harvesting a record - high soybean crop, but the prospect of China buying more US soybeans has boosted the futures market. Heavy rain in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has raised concerns about soybean quality [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1 [13] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,298 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.37%, and 2,303 yuan at night, up 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 54,540 lots, and the open interest decreased by 47,441 lots. The closing price of C2605 was 2,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.58%, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume increased by 402,301 lots, and the open interest increased by 199,841 lots [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained flat at 2,290 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price remained flat at 2,310 - 2,330 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou also remained flat. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast decreased in some areas, while the price in North China increased slightly [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 13.84 cents/pound, down 0.28 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the 59 - spread was - 9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the mainstream spot basis was 64 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.02 million tons in January, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons. As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was 4.03 million tons, a decrease of 790,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,745 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.61%, and 14,815 yuan at night, up 0.47%. The trading volume decreased by 134,609 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,168 lots. The closing price of CY2605 was 20,590 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.73%, and 20,650 yuan at night, up 0.29%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton was light, and the basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn market was in the final stage, and textile enterprises will concentrate on taking holidays in the second half of the week, resulting in a shrinking trading volume. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly, and the near - month warehouse receipts continued to increase [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2603 was 2,923 yuan/500 kg, up 0.31%, with a trading volume decrease of 18,675 lots and an open - interest decrease of 17,042 lots. The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,156 yuan/500 kg, up 0.32%, with a trading volume increase of 3,339 lots and an open - interest increase of 411 lots [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Sichuan spot price was 10,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price was 11,660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of hog 2603 was 10,845 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of hog 2605 was 11,555 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [32]. - **Market Information**: Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; and Muyuan registered 80 lots [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts was 8,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Sudan refined peanuts was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK603 was 8,020 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,970 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha general peanuts were around 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and Kaifeng large peanuts were around 3.9 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, 308 general peanuts were around 4.6 - 4.7 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, 308 general peanuts were around 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin. In Shandong, most areas had basically ended pre - holiday trading [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having various outlooks such as oscillation, oscillation - weakening, and oscillation - strengthening [1][6][7]. - For different commodities: - Oils: Narrow - range oscillation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and a suggestion to consider buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - Protein meals: Domestic double meals oscillate mainly, with international factors supporting US soybeans and domestic factors affecting the market [1][7]. - Corn: Oscillates, with industry news and emotions affecting futures, and attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. - Pigs: Oscillates weakly, with supply - demand being loose, and different trends in the short, medium, and long - term [9]. - Natural rubber: Oscillates, with attention to previous high resistance, and the market influenced by capital and fundamentals [11][12]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillates upward following natural rubber, with the mid - term bullish logic remaining unchanged [13]. - Cotton: Oscillates strongly in the medium - long term, waiting for new driving forces in the short term [14]. - Sugar: Oscillates weakly in the medium - long term, with a downward driving force due to expected oversupply [16]. - Pulp: Oscillates, with weak supply - demand before the Spring Festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. - Double - gum paper: Oscillates weakly, with the market in a low - level oscillation during the holiday [18]. - Logs: Oscillates, with the spot being stable and the market in a range - bound operation [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1. Oils - **View**: Oils show narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's February report adjusted relevant data, and the market is affected by factors such as demand expectations, biodiesel policies, and export performance. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by capital emotions, and the industrial end has different supply - demand situations for different oils. For example, soybeans have relatively sufficient supply, and palm oil has inventory and export issues [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all oscillate [6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meals - **View**: Optimistic emotions support US soybeans, and domestic double meals oscillate mainly [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA's February supply - demand report is bearish, but the market has optimistic export expectations and the US biodiesel plan boosts US soybean oil. Domestically, factors such as pre - holiday capital flight, logistics stagnation, and expected post - holiday cost reduction affect the market [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate [1][7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **View**: Industry news disturbs the market, and corn increases positions and rises [8]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by industry news and emotions, while the spot market is gradually entering the holiday, with stable prices and low trading volume. Attention should be paid to factors such as grain sales progress, policy grain auctions, and wheat conditions [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. 3.1.4. Pigs - **View**: Supply - demand is loose, and spot prices continue to weaken [9]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, there are different situations in the short, medium, and long - term; demand shows an increase in slaughter volume; inventory shows a continuous decrease in average pig weight. The price is expected to weaken in the short - term and is affected by different production capacities in different periods [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a potential bottom - out and recovery in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to previous high resistance [11][12]. - **Logic**: The rubber price runs strongly, mainly driven by capital emotions. The short - term support is effective, and the overall is in a bullish trend. The current trading logic is mainly affected by the macro - environment, with relatively weak fundamentals but good expectations [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with limited fundamental variables and increasing capital attention [12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Follow natural rubber to oscillate upward [13]. - **Logic**: The BR market follows natural rubber to rise slightly, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The raw material market is affected by factors such as export news and downstream demand [13]. - **Outlook**: Mid - term oscillation - strengthening, with a need for adjustment in the short - term due to rapid price increase [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton price rebounds [14]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. After the festival, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the terminal demand may drive the price to rise. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance, and the planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - strengthening, with a suggestion to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar price oscillates weakly in the medium - long term [16]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. The supply increase puts pressure on the price [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a suggestion to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **View**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures fluctuate independently [17]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, with low demand from the terminal and downstream. After the festival, the seasonal recovery of demand may bring marginal benefits. The valuation support has weakened, and the downward space is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with weak supply - demand before the festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - gum Paper - **View**: Factories enter the holiday, and the market maintains low - level oscillation [18]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading in the double - gum paper market ends, with stable spot prices and low - level oscillation. The industry is affected by factors such as production line operation, downstream consumption, and market demand [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with the market expected to be stagnant during the holiday and attention to the post - holiday consumption recovery [18]. 3.1.11. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market operates within a range [20]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market trading is basically stagnant, with stable spot prices and range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as news, valuation, supply, and delivery [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the market having no new driving force in the short - term and maintaining range - bound operation [20]. 3.2. Commodity Index - On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index), and plate index (agricultural product index) of CITIC Futures all showed certain changes. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.32%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.27%, the industrial product index increased by 0.41%, and the agricultural product index increased by 0.34% on that day [179][180].

Market Overview - On February 12, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance with lithium carbonate rising over 4% and nickel increasing over 2% [7][8] - Other commodities such as fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and soybean also saw gains of over 1% [7][8] - Conversely, platinum, palladium, and butadiene rubber experienced declines of over 1%, while glass, palm oil, and coke fell nearly 1% [7][8] Specific Commodity Performance - Lithium carbonate (contract 2605 M) reached a price of 150,000 with a rise of 4.07% [8] - Nickel (contract 2603 M) was priced at 140,310, reflecting a 2.30% increase [8] - Fuel oil (contract 2605 M) showed a gain of 1.51%, reaching 2,900 [8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (contract 2604 M) increased by 1.26%, priced at 3,376 [8] - In contrast, glass (contract 2605 M) fell by 0.84%, priced at 1,061 [8] - Coke (contract 2605 M) decreased by 0.54%, with a price of 1,660 [8]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.42%, reaching 29.7698 points [1] - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.23%, while CBOT wheat futures rose by 1.66% [1] - CBOT soybean futures rose by 0.09%, priced at $11.2350 per bushel, with soybean meal futures up by 0.59% and soybean oil futures down by 0.43% [1] Group 2 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.84% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.75%, settling at $3862 per ton, with a previous low of $3842 and a historical high of $8906 on May 20, 2025 [1] - London cocoa futures decreased by 0.54% [1]

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。春节备货进入尾声,产区冷库成交量逐渐下降。需求方面,整体销售情况良好。库存方 面,卓创的数据显示，截至2月5日,全国冷库苹果库存为563.51万吨,同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨,同比下 降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转向需求。今年苹果质量较差，但是收购价格较高， ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2026/2/11 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1123.50 | +4.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1667.00 | +2.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 642057.00 | -18244.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 40196.00 | +956.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -91205.00 | +4710.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -350.00 | -141.00↓ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 80.00 | +2.50↑ J9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 75.00 | +0.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 1700.00 | +1000.00↑ 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1380.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 【粕类日报】报告缺乏提振 盘面减仓较多 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/2/11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2950 | 2 6 | 天津 | 380 | 380 | 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2773 | 3 9 | | 270 | 260 | 1 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2888 | 3 0 | | 290 | 290 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2253 | 2 2 | | 222 | 266 | -44 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场冷清，行情震荡整理 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-10日沪镍主力合约2603开于134520元/吨，收于133350元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.19%，当日成交量 为281436（-135669）手，持仓量为80242（-3734）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约高开后震荡下行，整体呈窄幅偏弱震荡格局。宏观方面，美元指数低位震荡反弹， 美债收益率上行，压制大宗商品风险偏好。临近春节假期，资金获利了结、主动减仓避险，流动性收紧，放大震 荡。基本面方面，不锈钢、新能源等下游企业陆续停工，刚需收缩，备货进入尾声。上期所仓单持续增加，供应 宽松压制价格。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场价格延续涨势，但市场交投清淡，买卖双方心理价差显著。菲律宾矿 山端报价维持坚挺，印尼市场则平稳运行，执行现有价格体系，整体市场缺乏新的重大消息指引。中国市场僵局 持续，面对持续上涨的矿价，下游工厂接受度极低，买卖价差巨大。以1.5%品位为例，卖方报盘高达68美元/湿吨， 而工厂普遍心理价位仅在63美元/湿吨左右。市场偶有基于长协或特定条件的成交，但难以反映广泛 ...