钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现 钢材：钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材盘面冲高回落，现货方面，国内钢材市场表现疲软，整体成交相对一般，全国建材成交8.38 万吨。根据钢联数据显示，本周螺纹增产累库，消费下降；热卷增产降库，消费回落。 供需与逻辑：目前钢材供需基本面暂无矛盾，供给环比恢复，消费有所下降，库存呈现季节性累库。盘面反映远 端预期，现货表现相对理性，钢材成本大体稳定，企业维持一定利润，后期供给有望继续恢复，累库高度将决定 春季行情，后期关注库存变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-09 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、库存变化、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：港口库存大增，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅震荡，现货方面，进口矿现货主流品种报价较昨日偏弱运行、贸易商报价 多随行就市，普氏指数小幅下调。根据钢联数据显示，本周铁矿继续累库，港口库存大幅增长，钢厂小幅补库， 压港量有所增加。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供需矛盾持续加剧，整体库存大幅增长，下游补库意愿略有改善。由于港口部分货源流 动性锁死，加 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌29元至5436元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5340 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5212 元/吨（环比+2）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 425 手至 1.98 万手，空头持仓增加 646 至 2.54 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 3 ...

成文日期：20260106 研究品种:豆油 报告周期: 日报 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) ■油期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 2026 年 1 月 6 日,大连商品交易所豆油期货主力合约(Y.DCE) 开盘价 7868.0元/吨,最高价 7928.0元/吨,最低价 7866.0元/吨, 收盘价 7912.0 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 0.71%。当日成交量 263014 手，成交额 207.7839 亿元，最新持仓量 621847 手。 基本面消息：国内市场方面，1 月 6 日国内一豆市场主流参考价 格 8420 元/吨,较上一工作日上涨 40 元/吨,涨幅 0.48%。供应方 面、当日油厂开机率约 52.29%、上周国内大豆压榨 188 万吨、周环 比减少 22 万吨，较去年同期增加 10 万吨。 图 1：豆油主力合约分时图 20260106 数据来源:同花顺期货通 政策影响：根据最新政策，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，停止执行大 豆油加工行业农产品增值税进项税额核定扣除试点政策,纳税人购 进相关农产品，应凭合法增值税扣税凭证抵扣进项 ...

| | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23725 | -635 | 1160 | 2115 | 2705 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23710 | l | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3088 | ર | 102 | 223 | 384 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 563137 | -76500 | 193509 | 435481 | 419588 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 200227 | -30668 | -67480 | -60443 | 17786 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 32580 | 1070 | 14668 | 12944 | 11730 | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 10. 66% | -0. 36% | -2. 32% | 0. 74% | -12. 06% | | | LME 给cash-3M价差 | -17. 33 | 0.00 | 15. 07 | ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/3 1 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 258 320 25 -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 2275 2248 2350 - 2345 2450 266 322 22 10 - 2026/01/0 7 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 268 322 8 0 - 2026/01/0 8 801 2230 2220 2340 - 2345 2448 - - - -10 - 日度变化 0 -55 -30 -10 - 0 5 - - - -10 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 煤炭价格走弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价震荡回落，中国采购、巴西大豆丰产等因素继续影响美豆。下周一美农报告发布前， 资金避险情绪升温。国内油厂和贸易商挺价意愿明显，下游滚动拿货。短期关注进口大豆的拍卖消息对豆 类市场情绪的影响。随着加拿大总理将于下周访华的消息释放，中加贸易成为关注焦点，市场对远期菜籽 供应改善的预期施压菜粕和菜油期价，对临池豆粕期价形成拖累。短期豆粕震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 8, equity index futures diverged, CGB futures rose, and most commodities declined, with PS and EC leading the losses [2][11] - The supply - demand balance for polysilicon remains relatively loose, and the price trend is in a tug - of - war between weak fundamentals and industry price - supporting actions [18][19] - Platinum prices were pressured by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate volatility. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [24][26] - Palladium supply is disrupted by the Russian geopolitical issue, and although long - term supply - demand eases, short - term prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 8, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.7% while IF dropped 0.7%; in CGB, TL rose 0.37% and T rose 0.15% [11] - Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Coking Coal (up 4.8% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month), Glass (up 2.6% with open interest up 6.4% month - on - month), and Coke (up 2.6% with open interest down 1.3% month - on - month) [12][13] - The top three losers were Polysilicon (down 9.0% with open interest dropping 14.4% month - on - month), SCFIS（Europe）(down 9.0% with open interest down 8.3% month - on - month), and Platinum (down 6.7% with open interest decreasing 2.4% month - on - month) [13][14] 1.2 Daily Dropped 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On January 8, Poly - Silicon dropped 9.0% to 53610 yuan per ton. Futures fell sharply with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit down in the afternoon [17][19] - The supply - demand balance is loose, but both upstream and downstream have strong price - supporting willingness. Supply may adjust with demand, and demand from the downstream provides limited support [18][19] 1.2.2 Platinum - On January 8, Platinum dropped by 6.7% to 575 yuan per gram [23][26] - Affected by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, the precious metals sector retreated, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate price volatility. The price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed [24][26] - The supply side in South Africa faces risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion phase with multiple growth drivers [25][26] 1.2.3 Palladium - On January 8, Palladium dropped by 3.6% to 460.7 yuan per gram [29][31] - The Russian geopolitical issue disrupts supply, and demand is under structural pressure. Short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM will assess whether Meta's acquisition of Manus complies with relevant Chinese laws and regulations on export control, technology import and export, and overseas investment [37][39] - MFA stated that the US arbitrary seizure of foreign vessels on the high seas seriously violates international law [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - In 2025, China's national futures market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, representing year - on - year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [40][41]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market showed significant growth in December, with a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a turnover of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 45.17% and 58.55% respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume is projected to reach 90.74 billion contracts and a turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% [1] Trading Volume and Turnover by Exchange - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is expected to have a trading volume of approximately 23.35 billion contracts and a turnover of about 259 trillion yuan by 2025, with year-on-year growth of 3.31% and 27.86% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is projected to achieve a trading volume of around 31.38 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 88.96 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 20.26% and 4.47% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is anticipated to have a trading volume of about 26.07 billion contracts and a turnover of around 102.77 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 14.94% and 4.49% [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) is expected to reach a trading volume of approximately 3.04 billion contracts and a turnover of about 255.19 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 19.94% and 33.66% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) is projected to have a trading volume of around 5.34 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 31.60 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 171.62% and 190.27% [1] Leading Products by Trading Volume and Turnover - In December, the top three products by turnover at SHFE were silver futures, gold futures, and copper futures [2] - The leading products by turnover at ZCE included PTA futures, caustic soda futures, and glass futures [2] - The DCE's top products by turnover were coking coal futures, palm oil futures, and soybean meal futures [2] - GFE's leading products by turnover included lithium carbonate futures, polysilicon futures, and platinum futures [2] - CFFEX's top products by turnover were CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 index futures, and 30-year treasury bond futures [2] Market Drivers and Trends - The growth in the futures market is attributed to increased hedging demand from industrial enterprises due to factors such as fluctuating U.S. tariffs, a loose global monetary policy environment, rising geopolitical risks, and domestic economic adjustments [3] - The influx of long-term capital into the capital market, particularly from insurance funds, has also contributed to the increased hedging demand [3] - The recovery of operational conditions in the real economy, especially in new sectors like renewable energy and AI, has boosted optimism regarding the demand for new energy materials [3] - The introduction of 18 new futures and options products covering various sectors has enhanced the product system of the market [3] Performance of Commodity Markets - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases last year, with precious metals continuing to rise for the fourth consecutive year; gold and silver prices increased by 55.77% and 124.62% respectively [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed strongly, with copper and tin prices rising by 33.18% and 29.01% respectively [4] - The energy and chemical sector, however, faced challenges, with crude oil prices declining by 10.98% [4] Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to continue its high-quality development, with anticipated growth in trading volume and turnover of 10% to 15% this year [4] - New products like coking coal options are expected to be launched, further expanding the market's service scope [4] - The demand for hedging from real enterprises is projected to increase due to ongoing global commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks [4]