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化工日报:伊朗限气影响,EG低位反弹-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
化工日报 | 2025-11-25 伊朗限气影响,EG低位反弹 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价3884元/吨(较前一交易日变动+76元/吨,幅度+2.00%),EG华东市场现货价 3900元/吨(较前一交易日变动+52元/吨,幅度+1.35%),EG华东现货基差32元/吨(环比+0元/吨)。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面:据隆众数据,乙烯制EG生产毛利为-70美元/吨(环比-9美元/吨),煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1101 元/吨(环比-28元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨(环比+0.0万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为63.3万吨(环比+1.5万吨)。据CCF数据,上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨,副 港到港量2.8万吨;本周华东主港计划到港总数9.5万吨,副港到港量1.4万吨,整体中性略偏低,预计库存持稳小降。 整体基本面供需逻辑:供应端,国内乙二醇负荷高位下降,部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大,后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能; ...
新能源及有色金属日报:绝对价格回落刺激社会库存下滑-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].
新能源及有色金属日报:市场成交依然偏淡,铅价弱势运行-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:58
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场成交依然偏淡 铅价弱势运行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-11-24,LME铅现货升水为-22.41美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17075元/ 吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 17150元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17075元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至17075元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面:2025-11-24,沪铅主力合约开于17195元/吨,收于17135元/吨,较前一交易日变化-30元/吨,全天交易日 成交38420手,较前一交易日变化-1713手,全天交易日持仓52888手,手较前一交易日变化-2218手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到17230元/吨,最低点达到17115元/吨。夜盘 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍价格技术性反弹,但短期依然承压-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
氯碱日报:PVC底部空间缩窄,烧碱现货跟跌-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:49
氯碱日报 | 2025-11-25 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价4496元/吨(+40);华东基差-56元/吨(-20);华南基差4元/吨(-20)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4440元/吨(+20);华南电石法报价4500元/吨(+20)。 PVC底部空间缩窄,烧碱现货跟跌 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润:兰炭价格800元/吨(+0);电石价格2805元/吨(+0);电石利润-125元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-848元/吨(-28);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨(-25);PVC出口利润12.9美元/吨(+0.4)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存31.5万吨(-0.7);PVC社会库存52.7万吨(-0.6);PVC电石法开工率80.15%(+0.58%); PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%(+1.18%);PVC开工率77.48%(+0.77%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量67.6万吨(-2.3)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2241元/吨(+5);山东32%液碱基差134元/吨(-68)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价760元/吨(-20);山东50% ...
石油沥青日报:成本端弱势运行市场震荡筑底-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:48
石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-25 成本端弱势运行,市场震荡筑底 市场分析 1、11月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3060元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨25元/吨,涨幅 0.82%;持仓161041手,环比下跌4997手,成交226825手,环比上涨6569手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3156—3500元/吨;山东,3000—3520元/吨;华南,3060—3210元/吨; 华东,3200—3400元/吨。 原油端震荡下跌,沥青成本端支撑偏弱,但在价格跌至低位后,市场底部信号开始出现。现货方面,昨日西北、 华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格相对稳定,其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。具体来看,在炼厂开工 率和产量出现明显下滑态势,多家炼厂转产渣油,沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位,北方出现提货紧张的状况。不 过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象,市场情绪相对平淡,反弹动力仍不足。整体来看,沥青市场下行压力已 有所缓解,但底部反弹仍需要更多的刺激因素。 策略 单边:中性,等待底部信号夯实 跨品种:无 跨期:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供 ...
农产品日报:腌腊需求有限,猪价震荡运行-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:48
农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 腌腊需求有限,猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11400元/吨,较前交易日变动+50.00元/吨,幅度+0.44%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.40元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.32元/公斤,现货基差 LH01+0,较前交易日变动-220;江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.65元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤,现货基差LH01+250,较前交易日变动-240;四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH01+170,较前交易日变动+170。 据农业农村部监测,11月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.70,比上周五上升0.33个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为127.85,比上周五上升0.39个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.92元/公斤,比上周五上升0.1%; 牛肉66.43元/公斤,比上周五上升0.1%;羊肉62.76元/公斤,比上周五上升0.3%;鸡蛋7.35元/公斤,比上周五上升 1.2%;白条鸡17.50元/公斤,比上周五下降0. ...
新能源及有色金属日报:政策及情绪扰动仍在,多晶硅盘面维持宽幅震荡-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news, with a low valuation. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. The polysilicon futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of (-90) yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 262,676 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 41,524 lots, a change of -854 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 36% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 606,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In terms of imports, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67%. The significant month - on - month decrease in exports in October was mainly due to export policy, with some export orders shipped in September and new orders in October also affected [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (100) yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market continued to rise, and the price center shifted further upward. The current quoted price range was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was stable at 13,000 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted prices were concentrated at 13,200 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price decreased slightly. After the production reduction in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. Currently, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates mainly due to overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low. If there is policy promotion, the futures price may have room to rise [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. It opened at 53,600 yuan/ton and closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.15% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 128,427 (126,266 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 187,876 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.63%, the weekly polysilicon output was 27,100.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.11%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.78 GW, a month - on - month change of - 2.59% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (-0.06) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 (-0.02) yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. The component production plan in November continued to decline as expected. An accident occurred in a component enterprise in East China over the weekend, which was expected to affect part of the component output [6]. Strategy - Both the supply and demand sides of polysilicon weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The performance of the consumption side was average. Currently, the futures price was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The policies were still being promoted, and the futures price fluctuated greatly. Participants should pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performance was average, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate mainly [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [8]. - Cross - variety: None [8]. - Spot - futures: None [8]. - Options: None [8].
对二甲苯:短期不追高,PTA:单边震荡市,不追高,MEG:供需格局改善,空单减持
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Do not chase high prices in the short term; recommend closing long positions, shorting PXN on rallies, and going long MEG while shorting PX [1][6] - PTA: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices; recommend closing long positions [1][7] - MEG: Supply - demand pattern improves, reduce short positions; recommend going long MEG while shorting PX and taking profit on short and reverse - spread positions [1][7] 2) Core Viewpoints - PX: Although the PX - naphtha spread has improved and the profit margin of integrated producers is good, the domestic and Asian PX operating rates have increased. After the PXN reaches a high level and market hype factors are digested, the upward momentum of the short - term unilateral price weakens [3][6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate continues to decline, and the polyester device has a certain demand for it, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. However, the recent surge in the number of warehouse receipts indicates a weak supply - demand pattern and limited upward momentum [7] - MEG: Multiple MEG devices have reduced their loads or stopped production, and the supply is expected to shrink. The polyester device has a high operating rate, and the inventory structure is expected to reverse [7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: On November 24, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6772, 4680, 3884, 6242, and 447.9 respectively, with daily increases of 0.33%, 0.30%, 2.00%, 1.30%, and 0.11% [2] - **Spot Data**: On November 24, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 825.67 dollars/ton, 4625 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, 562.62 dollars/ton, and 63.66 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Processing Fee Data**: On November 24, the PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 261.8 dollars/ton, 195.49 yuan/ton, 203.75 yuan/ton, 57.31 yuan/ton, and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively [2] Market Dynamics - PX: Asian PX prices rose on November 24, with CFR Unv1/China at 825.67 dollars/ton, and the PX - naphtha spread continued to improve. Market participants are generally optimistic about the PX outlook in the first half of 2026 [2][4] - Naphtha: On November 24, the C + F Japan naphtha index rose by 75 cents/ton to 562.625 dollars/ton [3] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon [5] - MEG: On November 24, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 732,000 tons, remaining flat compared with the previous period [5] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak over the weekend and on November 24, and the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on November 24 were average [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: 1 (slightly strong) [6] Operating Rates - PX: The domestic PX operating rate is 89.5% (+2.7%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%) [6] - PTA: The PTA operating rate has dropped to 72% (-3.7%) [7] - MEG: The coal - based MEG operating rate has dropped from 83% to 65%, and the domestic weekly supply of ethylene glycol is about 405,000 tons [7][8] - Polyester: The polyester device operating rate is maintained at around 91.3% [7][8]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯库存继续累积-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance of European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage period may be over, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, and the port inventory has further increased, suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream开工率 remains low, with a significant increase in phenol开工率 but a decline in aniline and adipic acid开工率, and styrene is still in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, the port inventory has not continued to decline, and the arrival volume has increased rhythmically. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress at the end of the month and whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream开工率 is still low, with EPS开工率 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工率 rising slightly at a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [2]. - The strategy includes: no unilateral operation; for basis and inter - period, conduct long - short spread trading on EB2512 - EB2601 when the price difference is low; for cross - variety, widen the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 when the price difference is low [2]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The basis and inter - period spread data of pure benzene and EB are presented through figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [6][10][16]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - The production profits and internal and external spreads of pure benzene and styrene are analyzed, including figures like naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, and styrene non - integrated device production profits [18][20][28]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - The inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene are shown, such as pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, and styrene operating rate [34][39][40]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of styrene downstream products are presented, including EPS, PS, and ABS operating rates and production profits [44][45][50]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are analyzed, including caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid operating rates and production profits, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, and PC [53][61][66].