News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support high lead prices in the short term due to various factors including production issues and regulatory changes in electric vehicle battery standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of November 13, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warehouse receipts at 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts at 95,325 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. Total lead inventory stands at 223,975 tons, down by 1,250 tons [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead inventory at 25,824 tons, an increase of 1,138 tons from the previous trading day. Regional breakdown shows: Shanghai at 4,784 tons (down 197 tons), Guangdong at 4,724 tons (up 1,011 tons), Jiangsu at 4,782 tons (unchanged), Zhejiang at 1,272 tons (up 99 tons), and Tianjin at 10,262 tons (up 225 tons) [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October's electrolytic lead production fell short of expectations, leading to a tightening supply that has pushed lead prices higher. Environmental restrictions in Hebei have caused a regional supply tightness to spread nationwide [2]. - A shortage of lead concentrate has resulted in many electrolytic lead producers operating below market expectations despite resuming production. The opening of import windows for lead and lead concentrate is expected to increase import volumes, gradually resolving raw material issues at the smelting end [2]. - The demand for lead is expected to remain stable, with short-term lead prices anticipated to maintain high levels amid these supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The lead market has seen a shift from a five-day price increase to a downward adjustment, with social inventories continuing to rise. The resumption of production at refineries and the replenishment of crude lead are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to a weakening of fundamental support for prices [3]. - Short-term adjustments in lead prices are expected as the market responds to these changes in inventory and production dynamics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Despite concerns about crude oil supply glut, US government's end of shutdown and tightened sanctions on Russia led to a slight rebound in overnight oil prices. OPEC+ faces continuous production - increase pressure, with a weak fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook. EIA周报 shows significant increase in US crude production and large inventory growth, so oil prices remain under pressure. Short - term Brent may trade in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel, with a bearish view. Attention should be paid to substantial sanctions on Russia and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation [2]. Polyolefins - PP shows both supply and demand increase. Supply rises due to fewer maintenance, and demand remains resilient in the automotive and home - appliance sectors, but there is slight inventory accumulation this week under new - capacity pressure. PE has weak supply and demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases supply pressure, import sources are abundant, and non - agricultural - film demand generally declines. There is inventory reduction this week, but port inventory remains high. The cost side has crude oil fluctuating and coal strengthening, with a slight repair in PDH profit. High inventory and cost support continue to compete, and market expectations are still weak [4]. Methanol - Delayed gas restrictions in Iran put significant pressure on the port methanol market. High inventory, combined with positive import profit from Iran, leads to continuous trading and weakening willingness to hold goods, resulting in price decline and stable basis. In the inland market, Baofeng continues external procurement, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance, with subsequent increase in domestic production. Overseas gas restrictions are less than expected. On the demand side, multiple MTO units reduce load due to profit reasons, and traditional downstream purchases for rigid demand. The market currently trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be solved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before gas restrictions in Iran [8]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there are still periodic rainfall disturbances in overseas production areas, but overall, a strong output is expected during the peak - production period, and raw - material prices have some downward space. Domestic production areas are gradually entering the output - reduction period, with firm domestic raw - material prices. On the demand side, some northern regions are entering the off - season in the month, with slower market sales, mainly digesting inventory and purchasing as needed. With market digestion, some replenish in small quantities in the middle of the month. In the short term, due to large macro fluctuations, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow the raw - material output in the peak - production period of major production areas and macro changes. If raw - material supply is smooth, prices may weaken; if not, rubber prices are expected to trade around 15,000 - 15,500 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Low - concentration caustic soda gets price support from increased inquiries from alumina plants, but overall, there is a lack of real positive factors. The caustic - soda industry still faces supply - demand pressure, with few maintenance enterprises and an increasing supply. The main downstream alumina price is weakening, with shrinking industry profit and increasing losses, so the main demand side provides weak support, suppressing caustic - soda prices. Although there may be periodic replenishment demand from middle - and downstream inventory consumption, prices are still under pressure due to increasing supply and weakening demand. The non - aluminum market is sluggish. It is expected that caustic - soda prices will trend down in the long run, but there is short - term support from downstream periodic demand. Track the rhythm and sustainability of downstream replenishment [12]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand surplus problem has not improved, with increasing supply pressure, weakening demand expectations, insufficient cost support, and no positive macro expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to weaken. On the demand side, major downstream sectors such as real estate are still weak, and product enterprises like profiles and pipes have limited new orders, mainly purchasing for rigid demand, which cannot provide continuous market support. In November - December, there will still be an impact from new production capacity. After the maintenance of Inner Mongolia Sanlian, Qilu Petrochemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng ends next week, production is expected to increase. From November to January of the next year is the traditional off - season, with reduced outdoor construction in the north, and overall real - estate demand decline is a negative factor. The situation of anti - dumping duties in India is unclear, and exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue weakening at the bottom [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Recently, with the previous price decline, middle - and downstream buyers have increased purchases, leading to a rebound in the futures price. However, the overall surplus situation is still prominent. Fundamentally, weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, with obvious surplus compared to current rigid demand. Manufacturer inventory has been transferred to the middle - and downstream, and trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of significant downstream capacity increase, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. Without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will face further pressure. Track macro fluctuations and soda - ash plant load - adjustment situations. The supply - demand outlook is bearish. Short - term operation should be on the sidelines, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [13]. - **Glass**: Sales have weakened significantly, and the sales - to - production ratio has fallen below 100% in recent days. Although four production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production - line restart and ignition, adding about 3,650 tons of daily capacity, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have slightly improved, and there is still some rigid demand support in November as it is the year - end rush season. However, in the long - term, at the end of the peak season, there are concerns about future demand sustainability. As the temperature drops in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and glass prices will face pressure after December. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom cycle, with significant reduction in construction volume. The industry needs capacity exit to solve the surplus problem. The high sales - to - production ratio of spot has ended, and glass is expected to be weak in the short term [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Currently, Asian and domestic PX loads remain high. In the short - term, PTA load is maintained, and the previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high from November to December. PX demand still has short - term support. Yesterday, PX showed a strong trend due to the lifting of India's BIS certification and the start of the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage. However, limited by weak overall oil - price support and expected weakening of terminal demand in the industry chain, the PX rebound space is restricted. Short - term PX short positions should be avoided [14]. - **PTA**: There are still many PTA plant maintenance plans in November. The previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high in November - December. The supply - demand balance in November is expected to be tight, but it will be loose from December to the first quarter of next year. Yesterday, PTA showed a strong trend due to the cancellation of India's BIS certification and PX transfer - demand news, but the spot - market negotiation atmosphere was dull, and the basis was still weak. The PTA rebound space is restricted. Short - term TA should pay attention to the $4800 pressure level, and short positions should be avoided. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Recently, some coal - based EG plants are under maintenance, but Jinghai Petrochemical's plant has restarted production. Previously - maintained coal - based plants plan to restart in the middle - and late - November. Domestic supply remains high, and North American EG load has reached a high level. Middle - East supply shows no reduction, and overseas shipments are concentrated in January. Currently, polyester load is declining, and due to the high expected inventory accumulation in November - December, EG is under pressure. Hold out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 with a strike price of no less than 4100; go for reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 at high prices [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Currently, short - fiber factories have low inventory levels and reasonable processing fees, so short - fiber supply remains relatively high. In November, there is an expected seasonal weakening of terminal demand. Yesterday, the cancellation of India's BIS certification made raw - material PTA stronger, but it mainly benefited PTA and long - fiber, having relatively little impact on short - fiber. In the short - term, due to the weak supply - demand expectation, the short - fiber rebound space is restricted, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading; the processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and short positions should be taken at high prices [14]. - **Bottle - grade polyester chips**: In mid - November, the Huarun plant has both maintenance and restart. According to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of Dongying Fuhai's new plant is postponed, and domestic supply changes little. Considering the November market off - season, soft - drink and catering demand decline slightly, and demand provides insufficient support for bottle - grade chips. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Bottle - grade chips' social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation phase, with prices fluctuating with the cost side. Processing fees are limitedly boosted by supply - demand and change with raw - material costs. The strategy for single - side trading is the same as PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan per ton [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: There are new capacity commissioning, plant restart, and planned/unplanned maintenance expectations for pure benzene recently, but overall domestic supply may remain loose. On the demand side, some loss - making downstream products have production - reduction and price - protection expectations, so demand support is limited. Although East - China port inventory decreased this week, supply pressure remains. There is an expected amount of imports from November to December, but the US - Asia arbitrage window and gasoline - blending may disrupt market sentiment, and the actual impact needs further consideration. With weak crude - oil supply - demand expectations, cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. Follow plant changes. In the short - term, BZ2603 has weak self - driving force, pay attention to the 5640 pressure level, and be cautious about chasing up [16]. - **Styrene**: Two new styrene plants are operating stably, and previously - shut - down plants have restarted. There are also expected planned/unplanned maintenance in the near future, so overall supply may remain stable. Downstream EPS enters the seasonal off - season and reduces its operating rate due to high product inventory. PS has new plant commissioning and restart, and ABS remains stable. Overall demand changes little. Although inventory decreased this week, it is still at a high level, restricting the upside. Overseas and plant accidents may disrupt the domestic market. Overall, styrene supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with insufficient price - driving force. Follow plant restart and production - reduction situations and cost changes. In the short - term, EB12 price may fluctuate with the cost side [16]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: On November 13, Brent was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.48%) from the previous day; WTI was at $58.69, up $0.20 (0.34%). Most refined - oil products also had price changes. For example, NYM RBOB was at 195.97, up 0.43 (0.22%); ICE Gasoil was at $697.75, down $27.00 ( - 3.73%) [2]. - **Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads decreased. For example, US gasoline crack spread was at 23.62, down 0.02 ( - 0.08%); Singapore diesel crack spread was at 27.71, down 1.02 ( - 3.55%) [2]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread Changes**: L2601 closed at 6818, up 30 (0.44%); PP2601 closed at 6480, up 20 (0.31%). L15 spread was at - 75, up 1 (1.32%); PP15 spread was at - 97, up 15 (13.39%) [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory was at 52.9, up 3.9 (7.96%); PP enterprise inventory was at 62.0, up 2.01 (3.35%). PE device operating rate was at 83.1%, up 0.55 (0.66%); PP device operating rate was at 79.6%, up 1.77 (2.28%) [4]. Methanol - **Price and Basis Changes**: MA2601 closed at 2103, down 5 ( - 0.24%); MA15 spread was at - 105, down 2 (1.94%); Taicang basis was at - 29, up 11 ( - 27.50%) [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory was at 36.925, down 1.72 ( - 4.44%); methanol port inventory was at 154.4, up 2.65 (1.75%). Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was at 76.54%, up 0.45 (0.59%); downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was at 82.96%, down 2.02 ( - 2.38%) [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was at 14800, up 50 (0.34%); 9 - 1 spread was at 125, down 10 ( - 7.41%); 1 - 5 spread was at - 85, down 5 ( - 6.25%) [11]. - **Production and开工率**: September Thailand production was at 477.50, down 26.00 ( - 5.45%); September Indonesia production was at 195.00, down 3.40 ( - 1.71%). Tire semi - steel tire operating rate was at 73.68%, up 0.01; tire full - steel tire operating rate was at 64.50%, down 0.96 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread Changes**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted price was at 2468.8, unchanged; SH2601 was at 2337.0, down 7.0 ( - 0.3%); V2605 - V2601 was at 307.0, up 5.0 ( - 1.7%) [12]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate was at 89.9%, up 1.5 (1.7%); PVC total operating rate was at 79.3%, up 2.2 (2.8%). Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was at 21.5, down 0.8 ( - 3.5%); PVC total social inventory was at 54.6, up 0.1 (0.2%) [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Changes**: North - China glass quote was at 1110, unchanged; North - China soda - ash quote was at 1300, unchanged. Glass2601 was at 1056, up 7 (0.67%); Soda - ash2601 was at 1239, up 25.0 (2.06%) [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda - ash operating rate was at 86.89%, down 0.02 ( - 1.72%); soda - ash weekly production was at 75.76, down 1.3 ( - 1.71%). Glass factory inventory was at 6579.00, up 296.6 (4.72%); soda - ash factory inventory was at 170.20, up 4.2 (2.54%) [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Changes**: Brent crude (January) was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.5%); POY150/48 price was at 6570, down 10 ( - 0.2%); PX - crude spread was at 366, down 1 ( - 0.3%) [14]. - **开工率 Changes**: PTA operating rate was at 76.4%, down 1.6 ( - 2.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was at 76.2%, down 3.8 ( - 4.9%); polyester comprehensive operating rate was at 91.3%, down 0.4 ( - 0.4%) [14

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Zinc - The fundamentals and macro - environment have limited changes. The supply is generally loose, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the decline in smelting profits. The demand is average, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export window of zinc ingots may boost the domestic zinc price. The Shanghai - London ratio may be repaired, with the main contract referring to 22300 - 23000 [2]. Copper - After the implementation of interest - rate cuts and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. The main contract refers to 86500 - 88000 [4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows regional differentiation. The fundamentals are strong, and long positions should be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by the macro - environment, but the fundamentals are weak. The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callback [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is strongly supported, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 20800 - 21400 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short interweaving. The refined nickel production is at a high level, and the supply of nickel ore is generally stable. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 124000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock state. The macro - level drive is weakened, the nickel - ore market is temporarily stable, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to 12400 - 12800 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement. The price may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [17]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. If the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range being 8500 - 9500 [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is rising. The supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 4587 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.36 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc output was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The galvanizing and other开工 rates showed different changes [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.48% to 87210 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 827 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper output was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The copper rod and other开工 rates increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.72% to 296000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 15428.41 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.15% to 21920 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in some regions decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina output was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum output was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.70% to 21650 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined aluminum price difference in some regions increased [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output decreased by 2.42%, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot output increased by 1.06% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.17% to 120650 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1765 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel output increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the nickel - iron price decreased by 0.22% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output in China increased by 0.38%, and the social inventory increased by 1.73% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1.26% to 84350 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 1.73% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70% [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The N - type re - feed material average price remained unchanged at 52150 yuan/ton, and the N - type silicon wafer price was stable [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon output was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%, and the inventory increased by 3.09% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate under the future supply - demand re - balance. The fuel oil market, including both low - sulfur and high - sulfur, is expected to see a continued reversal in the market structure, with the LU - FU spread likely to maintain an upward trend. The asphalt price is currently viewed bearishly. PX&TA will follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is under pressure. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to the supply - demand imbalance. Methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation, and the polyolefin price will enter a phase of weakening oscillation. PVC will tend to oscillate at the bottom [1][3][5][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price dropped significantly. The WTI 12 - month contract closed at $58.49 per barrel, down $2.55 or 4.18%. The Brent 1 - month contract closed at $62.71 per barrel, down $2.45 or 3.76%. SC2512 closed at 450.8 yuan per barrel, down 15.8 yuan or 3.39%. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year. EIA predicts that this year and 2026 will see record - high US oil production, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day. API data shows that last week, US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply surpluses and weak downstream demand, but the East - West arbitrage window is almost closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable downstream demand, and the LU - FU spread may continue to rebound [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed higher. This week, the social inventory rate decreased by 0.80% to 28.50%, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.36% to 33.50%, and the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level increased by 0.6% to 28.45%. Since November, asphalt production has decreased by 4.3% and consumption by 13.1% [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed higher on Wednesday. The PX futures contract also closed up. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 360,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is restarting. PX&TA will follow cost - end fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures closed higher. In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. In October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The supply pressure is increasing, and the external demand for tires is weakening [5] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2072 yuan per ton. Domestic overhauled plants are resuming production, but Iranian plants may shut down from late November to December, which may lead to a decline in port inventory from mid - December to early January [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, but the downstream orders and operating rates will weaken after the e - commerce activities. The prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating phase [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on November 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3. Market News - OPEC's monthly report shows that due to increased production from a broader OPEC group, global oil supply and demand are expected to balance next year. EIA's STEO report indicates that this year's US oil production will reach a record - high, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 [13] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Multiple charts display the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis trends of main contracts for different products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, as well as the spreads of shipping indices [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratios between fuel oil and asphalt [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts display the production profits of LLDPE and PP [69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The team consists of several analysts, including Zhong Meiyan (Director of Energy - Chemical Research), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber and Polyester), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol and Polyolefins), each with their own professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today due to oversupply, with neutral to high industrial inventories and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting and OPEC+ announcement, oil prices fluctuated. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 10, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6840 (+20), the 01 contract price is 6788 (+28), the basis is 52 (-8), the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7114 (unchanged), and the import spread is -274 (+20). The warehouse receipt is 12,067 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), and the social inventory is 500,000 tons (-100,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 6460 (+31), the basis is 10 (-31), the import price in US dollars is 765 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6702 (unchanged), and the import spread is -232 (unchanged). The warehouse receipt is 14,642 (+13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), and the social inventory is 324,000 tons (-9,000) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,906 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term may fluctuate between 6200 - 6800. With the terminal demand entering the off - season and many PTA device maintenance plans in November, the supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the price drive is limited. [1] - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, but mid - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The price rebound is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate between 4300 - 4800. [1] - MEG: Although the polyester load can be maintained, the inventory accumulation in November and December is expected to be high, and the price is under pressure. [1] - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the rebound space is limited. The processing fee may be compressed. [1] - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. The price follows the cost - end fluctuation. [1] Methanol Industry The market is trading the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being the high port inventory. The 01 contract's inventory problem cannot be solved, and it is weak before the Iranian gas restriction. [2] Polyolefin Industry PP shows both supply and demand growth but accumulates inventory slightly this week due to new production capacity pressure. PE has weak supply and demand, and although it has destocked this week, the port inventory is still high. The market expectation is still weak. [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although the disk rebounds in the short - term, the mid - term demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound. [7] - Glass: The short - term has certain rigid demand support, but the mid - to long - term demand is worrying, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, with increasing supply and weak demand from the main downstream. The price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may have short - term support from downstream replenishment. [8] - PVC: The supply - demand surplus problem is not improved, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand expectation. The price is expected to be weak at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber Industry The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate. If the raw material output in the main production areas is smooth, there is room for further decline; otherwise, it may run around 15000 - 15500. [9] Crude Oil Industry The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and Brent crude oil may run between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. [10] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The BZ2603 can be treated as short on rallies following the oil price. [14] - Styrene: The supply - demand may turn loose, and the price drive is insufficient. The EB12 can be shorted on rebounds. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.7% increase; WTI crude oil (December) rose 0.91 to 61.04 US dollars per barrel, a 1.5% increase. [1] - CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 2 to 577 US dollars per ton, a 0.3% decrease. [1] Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price rose 45 to 6600 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase; FDY150/96 price rose 35 to 6805 yuan/ton, a 0.5% increase. [1] - The cash flows of different polyester products have different changes, such as POY150/48 cash flow increasing by 146.1%. [1] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price decreased by 5 to 4600 yuan/ton, a 0.1% decrease; TA futures 2601 decreased by 56 to 4648 yuan/ton, a 1.2% decrease. [1] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations - MEG port inventory increased by 9.9 to 66.1 million tons, a 17.6% increase; the arrival expectation decreased by 0.8 to 18.1 million tons, a 4.2% decrease. [1] Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes - Asian PX start - up rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 80.2%; China PX start - up rate increased by 2.7 percentage points to 89.8%. [1] Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2082 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan, a 0.9% decrease; MA2605 closed at 2194 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a 0.63% decrease. [2] Methanol Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04 to 38.641%, a 2.75% increase; methanol port inventory increased by 1.06 to 151.7 million tons, a 0.71% increase. [2] Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.31 to 76.09%, a 0.41% increase; downstream external - procurement MTO device start - up rate increased by 0.92 to 84.98%, a 1.09% increase. [2] Polyolefin Industry Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6760 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a 0.62% decrease; PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan, a 0.79% decrease. [5] Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.42 to 49.0 million tons, a 17.84% increase; PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.48 to 60.0 million tons, a 0.81% increase. [5] Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - PE device start - up rate increased by 1.72 to 82.6%, a 2.13% increase; PP device start - up rate increased by 0.72 to 77.8%, a 0.93% increase. [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry Prices and Spreads - Glass: North - China quoted price decreased by 20 to 1110 yuan/ton, a 1.77% decrease; glass 2601 decreased by 22 to 1069 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease. [7] - Soda Ash: North - China quoted price remained at 1300 yuan/ton; soda ash 2601 increased by 16 to 1226 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase. [7] Supply - Soda Ash start - up rate decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 86.89%; soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.3 to 75.76 million tons, a 1.71% decrease. [7] Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 296.6 to 6579.00 million weight - boxes, a 4.72% increase; soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.2 to 170.20 million tons, a 2.54% increase. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Prices and Spreads - 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4520 yuan/ton. [8] Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.8 to 21.5 million tons, a 3.5% decrease; PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.3 to 33.5 million tons, a 1.0% decrease. [8] Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.5 to 89.9%, a 1.7% increase; PVC total start - up rate increased by 2.2 to 79.3%, a 2.8% increase. [8] Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 150 to 14700 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase; the whole - latex basis increased by 165 to - 395 yuan/ton, a 29.46% increase. [9] Production and Consumption Data - September Thai production decreased by 26 to 451.50 million tons, a 5.45% decrease; September domestic tire production increased by 53.3 to 10348.7 million pieces, a 0.52% increase. [9] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.72% increase; WTI crude oil rose 0.91 to 61.04 US dollars per barrel, a 1.51% increase. [10] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 4.09 to 201.20 US cents per gallon, a 2.07% increase; ICE Gasoil increased by 27.25 to 749.25 US dollars per ton, a 3.77% increase. [10] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (December) rose 1.10 to 65.16 US dollars per barrel, a 1.7% increase; CFR China pure benzene decreased by 3 to 663 US dollars per ton, a 0.5% decrease. [14] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East - China spot price decreased by 90 to 6250 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease; EB futures 2512 decreased by 84 to 6231 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. [14] Inventory - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.6 to 12.10 million tons, a 42.4% increase; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 1.37 to 17.93 million tons, a 7.1% decrease. [14] Industry Chain Start - up Rates - Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained at 78.8%; domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.0 to 75.1%, a 1.4% increase. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It analyzes the market conditions, important news, trading logic, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The stock market showed high - low switching and index fluctuations. The main stock index futures contracts fell, with different changes in trading volume and positions. The market is expected to remain volatile until a consensus is formed [17][19][20]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, high - low trading in a high - level range; for arbitrage, IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, bull spread at low prices [21]. Treasury Futures - Market situation: Treasury futures closed mostly flat. The spot bond yields fluctuated slightly, and the market lacked clear incremental positive drivers, limiting the upward space of futures bonds [22][23]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold short 30Y - 7Y term spread positions and consider long T - contract inter - delivery spread at an appropriate time [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market situation: The domestic supply pressure has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The CBOT soybean index rose slightly, while the CBOT index fell [25]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. Sugar - Market situation: International sugar prices fluctuated, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. Global sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, while domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but import policies and high costs support the price [27][28][29]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading; for arbitrage, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for options, wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market situation: In October, Malaysian palm oil inventories increased as expected, and the oil market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Different oils have different supply and demand situations [31][32]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market situation: The spot price rebounded, and the futures market was strongly volatile. The US corn market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, while the domestic corn spot price is short - term strong [34][35]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - long on dips for the December US corn; wait and see for the January domestic corn, and consider short - selling at high prices with a stop - loss; wait for dips for the May and July contracts; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [36]. Live Hogs - Market situation: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and the price declined slightly. The overall supply pressure remains due to high inventory [37][38]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, lightly short; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [38]. Peanuts - Market situation: Peanut spot prices are strong, and the short - term market is strongly volatile. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the oil mill has not made large - scale purchases [39][40]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the January contract is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, and lightly short - long the May contract with a stop - loss; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. Eggs - Market situation: Egg demand has improved, and the price has slightly rebounded. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [42][43][44]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, close previous short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [44]. Apples - Market situation: New apples are being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The apple production has decreased this year, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low [45][46][47]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, consider going long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [47]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market situation: Cotton picking is nearing completion, and the price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, but the production increase may be lower than expected, and the demand is in the off - season [49][50][51]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is slightly stronger in the short - term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [51]. Black Metals Steel - Market situation: Raw material costs are under pressure, and steel prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply and demand structure suppresses steel prices, but cost support exists [54]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain range - bound trading; for arbitrage, hold long roll - screw spread positions; for options, wait and see [55]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market situation: Market sentiment has cooled, and the market is in an adjustment phase. After a sharp decline, the market is expected to oscillate and sort out in the near term [59]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips in the medium - term; for arbitrage, short the 1/5 coking - coal spread; for options, wait and see [60]. Iron Ore - Market situation: Adopt a bearish mindset. The supply is high in the fourth quarter, while the domestic demand is weak [63]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, mainly short; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [63]. Ferroalloys - Market situation: Costs provide some support, and previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have weakened marginally, but costs are supportive [65]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, reduce previous short positions on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [67]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market situation: Market liquidity expectations boost precious metals, which are strongly volatile. The US government's situation and economic data affect market sentiment [69][70]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a collar - call option strategy [70][71]. Copper - Market situation: Short - term volatility. The supply and demand situation and macro - economic data affect the copper market [72]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see, and consider long - term long positions; for arbitrage, the ratio may rebound; for options, wait and see [74]. Alumina - Market situation: The supply and demand are still significantly surplus. Spot prices have rebounded, but the pressure of basis - driven selling exists [78]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - term narrow - range rebound, but beware of basis - driven selling pressure; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [80][81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market situation: Overseas supply concerns persist, and aluminum prices are strongly volatile. Macro - economic factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the market [82][83]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain a bullish view after dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [85]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations increase, and the alloy price is strongly volatile with aluminum prices. Cost support and demand - side factors co - exist [86]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the alloy price is strongly volatile with aluminum prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [86]. Zinc - Market situation: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may improve due to potential smelter production cuts and export opportunities, but the upward space is limited [89]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold long SHFE and short LME arbitrage positions; for options, wait and see [89]. Lead - Market situation: Range - bound trading. The supply may improve, while the demand may weaken [91]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound trading, and the price may decline with inventory accumulation; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - Market situation: The cost is loosening, and nickel prices are weakly volatile. The supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure [93]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short on rebounds; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money call option [94][95]. Stainless Steel - Market situation: Both supply and demand are weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The market is in a low - season, and prices are expected to continue to decline [96]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short on rebounds; for arbitrage, wait and see [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: No detailed market situation description provided. - Trading strategy: Close long positions and realize profits in time [97].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market has short - term support, but there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 of next year. Consider short - side strategies after the oil price rebounds again [2]. - Precious metals may continue to build a high - level shock platform due to the lack of strong drivers [3]. - The upward momentum of the copper market in the short - term is decreasing. Consider buying put at - the - money/one - strike out - of - the - money options and selling call options with an execution price of 90,000 to reduce costs [4]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Be vigilant of capital turning [5]. - Other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [8][9][10]. Summary by Catalog Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspending production increase in Q1 of next year boosts market confidence. US government shutdown negotiation progress and geopolitical factors also affect the market. There is short - term support, but supply - demand surplus pressure remains [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term positive sentiment but weak medium - term upward support [22]. - **Asphalt**: Demand is weaker than expected, and social inventory has turned from lower to higher year - on - year. The market is bearish, and the price continues to decline [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamental conditions have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG price [24]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily lack strong drivers and may continue high - level shock [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The upward momentum is decreasing, and inventory has decreased. Consider short - term trading strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with macro - led strong sentiment and limited fundamental resonance [5]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and low inventory supports the external market. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market to rise [8]. - **Lead**: High - level shock, with the far - month contract's center of gravity expected to move up [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, and the stainless - steel market is sluggish [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, but demand is weak. Consider short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - **Alumina**: Supply surplus persists, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for now [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price has risen significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is expected to shrink more than demand, and the inventory may decrease. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price will continue to fluctuate due to the synchronous contraction of supply and demand [14]. - **Urea**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward price center [25]. - **Methanol**: It may continue to be weak in the short - term, but is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level. Pay attention to the port inventory build - up rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but the market is worried about the long - term situation, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand has improved temporarily, but the overall supply is loose, and the price is under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level. Caustic soda is in a weak operation [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply has recovered, and PTA has improved slightly. There is uncertainty in the short - to - medium - term, so it is advisable to wait and see [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply growth pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. Adopt a bearish view [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but is affected by raw material price increases. Bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. Building Materials Commodities - **Glass**: The price is falling, and the cost has increased. The profit has narrowed, and the daily melting has decreased. Pay attention to the end - of - year rush - work situation [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a strong shock in the short - term, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term due to high supply pressure [36]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 of next year. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Palm oil has high - inventory pressure in the short - term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for domestic rapeseed products [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [40]. - **Corn**: The futures price is rebounding at the bottom, but the supply is still loose in the future [41]. - **Pork**: The price may have a seasonal rebound in the short - term, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in H1 of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Try short - selling at high prices and observe the spot market [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen. The Zhengzhou cotton price is in a shock. Pay attention to the US cotton export data [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and pay attention to the sugar production forecast in Guangxi for the new season [45]. - **Apple**: The price is in a wide - range shock. Adopt a bearish strategy due to inventory concerns [46]. - **Timber**: The price is in a weak operation. Low inventory provides support, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Pulp**: The price has risen. The inventory has decreased, and the valuation is low. Consider buying at low prices [48]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes are differentiated, and futures contracts have all risen. Pay attention to the RMB exchange rate and domestic policies [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising in a shock. The yield curve steepening may come to an end [50].

Core Insights - The market for carbon black is currently experiencing cautious price adjustments, with limited negotiation space and a tendency to maintain a range-bound state [1][2] - The coal tar market shows positive trends, with deep processing operations at high levels and potential for further increases, while coking operations are declining, suggesting a return to normal supply-demand balance [1][3] Group 1: Coal Tar Market - The auction quantity for high-temperature coal tar from Xichang Panjiang Coal Coking Co., Ltd. was 1,020 tons, with a starting price of 2,700 CNY/ton and a transaction price of 2,720 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 94 CNY from the previous week [1] - The auction quantity for high-temperature coal tar from Panzhihua Panjiang Coal Coking Co., Ltd. was 1,000 tons, with a starting price of 2,670 CNY/ton and a transaction price of 2,750 CNY/ton, indicating an increase of 95 CNY from the previous week [1] Group 2: Carbon Black Market - Carbon black prices are adjusting cautiously, with last week's prices hitting a low point, leading to increased stocking by some downstream players and a rise in demand orders, alleviating inventory pressure for carbon black manufacturers [2] - Most tire manufacturers are still negotiating prices aggressively, with overall tire production in November showing good continuity and stable load levels, with full steel tires at 65% and semi-steel tires at 74% [2] Group 3: Market Forecast - The coal tar prices are expected to show a rebound trend this week, while carbon black prices will depend on the fluctuations in coal tar prices [3]