Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a weak balance, with insufficient momentum for price rebound. It may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and if port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, the price may decline to the previous low. If inventory destocking starts, it is expected to drive a periodic price rebound [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching 4,297 yuan/ton on September 17, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market rose to 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 25 yuan to 83 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 61 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread turned to a premium of 20 yuan [2] - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 107 lots to 310,700 lots, and trading volume decreased by 17% to 124,900 lots, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 70.8%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants stable. Coal - based production continued to incur a loss of 402 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester plants was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, remaining flat for many days. Terminal restocking demand was dull [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 485,700 tons (a weekly increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, reaching a recent high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the main ethylene glycol futures contract price was 4,297 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,380 yuan/ton, and the basis was 83 yuan/ton [5] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 41 yuan [5] - **Profits**: Coal - based production profit was - 402 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.8%, and the operating rates of various production methods remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 486,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 180,000 tons. The arrival volume was 101,700 tons, down 67,000 tons from the previous period [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,980 yuan/ton ex - works. The mainstream market was weak, but coal prices were firm [6] - On September 17, the mainstream market price was weak, while the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable, with a dull trading atmosphere at around 4,480 yuan/ton delivered [6] - On September 17, the crude oil market declined during the day, with unstable cost support. The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol were expected to weaken, and the market negotiation price declined, with the current East China price at around 4,360 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total industry inventory [7][9][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - **Likely positive factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main logic and risk points**: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - **Price**: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory**: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Operating Rate**: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit**: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The trend is bearish in the medium term, with a short - term potential for supply fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, but the upside space is limited. The strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options can be continued [2]. - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil when the spread is low [3]. - Asphalt: The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price has bottom - support [4]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - With the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory accumulation has accelerated. Considering the return of OPEC+ supply and the end of the summer peak season for oil demand, the market is expected to face greater loosening pressure in the fourth quarter, with the most oversupplied period in the first quarter of next year. The oversupply may reach 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly. The increase and subsequent decrease of warehouse receipts in East China are conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The overseas LPG market remains strong. Affected by typhoons in South China, imported goods have decreased, and high - level refinery operating rates can be maintained due to good chemical profit margins [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory has increased by 4.7% and crude oil inventory has decreased by 0.9% since the second half of the year, with an overall increase of 1.2% in total oil inventory, continuing the inventory - building speed in the second quarter [2]. - Considering the supply return of OPEC+ and the end of the oil demand peak season, the market's loosening pressure will increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and the most oversupplied period will be in the first quarter of next year, with oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, the upside space for price rebounds is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in domestic local refinery operating rates is beneficial to fuel oil feedstock demand [3]. - The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel, with an 11.6% year - on - year increase in high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in August and a 6% year - on - year increase in cumulative loading volume [3]. - FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly, with the overall inventory level decreasing month - on - month [4]. - Warehouse receipts in East China increased by 4,000 tons last Friday and decreased by 2,700 tons in the first two trading days of this week, which is conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The asphalt futures price has bottom - support [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is positive due to strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks [5]. - Affected by typhoons in South China, imported LPG has decreased. Good chemical profit margins allow high - level refinery operating rates to be maintained [5]. - The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side support during the peak season. The resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine under CATL will be a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to the market pricing in advance the potential downward pressure on prices due to future supply increases, while the demand side provides solid support. The resumption of production at the lithium mine has significant uncertainties, and before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6,8000 - 76,000 yuan/ton until National Day [3][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the time - limit pressure on lithium mines in Jiangxi for report submission and the policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage. Negative factors include the risk of insufficient restocking during the peak season and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 39.0%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 65.9% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 73,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan (0.69%) and a weekly increase of 280 yuan (0.38%); the trading volume is 500,267 lots, with a daily increase of 17,477 lots (3.62%) and a weekly decrease of 91,408 lots (-15.45%); the open interest is 300,437 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,009 lots (-2.91%) and a weekly decrease of 50,903 lots (-14.49%) [9][10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, show different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.25%) and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (-2.68%) [24]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.57%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.42%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.55%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.35%) [27]. - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan (0.28%); the average price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary materials is 114,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan (0%) [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., show different price differences. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 is - 237.5 yuan/ton [35]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 38,824 lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [38]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report mentions the production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene and lithium mica) and the import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical details are not fully presented [42]. Lithium - Ion Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 60% of corresponding futures contracts at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of put options (P - 68,000) [2]. - For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 20% of the futures main contract according to the procurement progress and use 20% of put options + call options [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales prices can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use 20% of put options + call options according to the production plan [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 20% of the futures main contract at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of call options (C - 77,000) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market had a fair negotiation atmosphere with a weakening spot basis. The market is expected to see a supply return, and the spot basis is gradually declining. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was average. In the short - term, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are still tight, and the basis has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply and demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation okay, basis weakened, 9 - month goods traded at 01 discount of 80, etc. [5] - Basis: Spot price 4610, 01 contract basis - 62, disk premium, bearish [6] - Inventory: PTA factory inventory 3.84 days, decreased by 0.06 days, bullish [6] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [6] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [5] - Expectation: Supply return, basis decline, price follows cost, watch device and demand [5] - **MEG** - Fundamental: Price center adjusted low, trading average, disk fluctuated slightly up at noon [7] - Basis: Spot price 4377, 01 contract basis 89, disk discount, bullish [7] - Inventory: East China inventory 37.24 tons, decreased by 0.73 tons, bullish [7] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [7] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [7] - Expectation: Port inventory may rise slightly this week, short - term tight supply - demand, far - month loose, watch device [7] 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, export, demand, inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of EG production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price - related Charts**: Include bottle - chip spot price, production margin, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, month - to - month spread, spot spread, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31] - **Inventory Analysis Charts**: Show the inventory days of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers in different regions and time periods from 2020 - 2025 [40] - **Upstream and Downstream开工率Charts**: Display the opening rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit - related Charts**: Illustrate the production margins of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][61] 3.5利多因素 - The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [10]. - With the approach of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3.6利空因素 - The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

Group 1 - The consumer sector showed strong performance on September 15, with the Consumer Leader ETF (516130) experiencing a rise of 0.73% during trading [1][3] - Key stocks in various sub-sectors such as automotive, construction, machinery, and agriculture saw significant gains, with Top Group rising over 8% and several others like Desai Xiwai and Huatu Shanding increasing over 7% [1][3] - The market is shifting focus from technology stocks, particularly those related to AI, to consumer sectors that have seen relatively lower valuations [1][3] Group 2 - The Consumer Leader ETF tracks the Consumer Leader Index, which selects the most representative and high-quality companies in the consumer sector, including major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric [5] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio was reported at 18.5 times, indicating a low valuation compared to historical data, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Upcoming consumption policies, particularly in regions like Zhejiang, are expected to stimulate domestic consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially boosting the overall consumer sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is expected to remain weakly stable, and the domestic soybean meal market is likely to enter a destocking phase in September, with soybean meal prices predicted to fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - The central price of oils is supported by multiple factors, and they are expected to show a moderately upward - trending oscillation in the medium term, with a strategy of buying on dips and stabilization [7][10]. - The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. - The cotton price is likely to continue oscillating in the short term due to the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors [15][16]. - The egg price may be stable or rise in the short term, but there is a possibility of a decline after a short - term increase, with a suggestion to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [18][20]. - The pig price is expected to remain at a low level with minor fluctuations, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **Important Information**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal market was affected by high inventory. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate may decline. The Brazilian soybean premium has rebounded after a decline. The domestic soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a five - year high, and the soybean meal inventory has slightly increased. Last week, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the cost performance after the stabilization of the soybean import cost. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to destock in September, and it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. The import price of palm oil in China has a larger negative spread. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, with multiple factors affecting the market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of oils is supported, and they are expected to oscillate moderately upward in the medium term. With high current valuations, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different degrees of increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate weakly. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The US cotton export signing volume and Brazil's cotton exports to China showed different trends [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors, and the short - term cotton price is expected to continue oscillating [16]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price mostly increased, with small inventory and good demand, and the market trading was smooth [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is still large, but there are factors limiting the decline. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [20]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend, with a low - level consolidation state and a high probability of remaining stable [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply in September is bearish, but there are potential supporting factors. The spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [23].