Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, but in the long - term, the cotton market will be in a supply - surplus pattern, and cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is maintained [5] - The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of July 11, India's new - season cotton sown area was 9.3 million hectares, about 2.1% less than the same period last year. In May 2025, US wholesalers' clothing and clothing fabric sales were $14.005 billion, up 8.11% year - on - year and 1.94% month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the 25/26 global cotton market will be in a supply - loose pattern. The USDA raised the forecast of US cotton production, and the US cotton balance sheet is unlikely to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and weather disturbances support the recent rise of Zhengzhou cotton. However, domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and new cotton is growing well. The weak off - season demand restricts the upward space of cotton prices, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: ICRA expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season [3] Market Analysis - International: The market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 season. The long - term downward pressure on raw sugar remains, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [4] - Domestic: The fast sales of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory support the spot price. However, the rebound of import profit and expected import increase will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,242 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.38%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market News: The price of imported wood pulp showed a weakening trend, with some softwood pulp prices falling and some hardwood pulp prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. High port inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: Paper pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak, and domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season. The planned increase in finished paper production capacity has not led to a significant increase in demand, and terminal demand is expected to improve only slightly in the second half of the year [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

金十数据7月16日讯，原油期货连续第三个交易日下跌。此前市场聚焦于美国关税及俄罗斯制裁相关担 忧，如今重新将目光转向供需平衡问题。交易员正等待美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的周度库存数据。 《华尔街日报》调查的分析师预测，在连续两周出现意外大幅库存增加后，本周原油库存或将持平，同 时汽油及馏分油库存可能小幅下降。 原油期货三连跌：市场转向供需博弈 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [11]. Core Insights - The company, Huaxin Cement, is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.096 billion and 1.132 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 55% [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant performance improvement, with a net profit of 880 million yuan, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [5]. - The company has established a strong overseas presence, with production capacity exceeding 25 million tons across 12 countries, contributing significantly to its profitability [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 13.25 yuan - Total shares: 2.079 billion, circulating shares: 1.344 billion - Total market capitalization: 27.5 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 17.8 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 15.20/10.10 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 49.8% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 11.42 [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 36.5 billion yuan and 38.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7% and 4.7% [6]. - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 2.6 billion yuan and 2.79 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 7.7% and 7.1% [6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 11x for 2025 and 10x for 2026 [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Steel Industry Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the steel industry, specifically focusing on the performance of rebar and other steel products in the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: - The steel market has shown fluctuations since January, with a small rebound followed by a decline, reaching a peak in mid-January before continuing to drop [1]. - A significant drop occurred around the Qingming Festival in April, attributed to market reactions to monetary policy discussions [2]. 2. **Impact of Policies**: - A meeting on May 8 proposed a package of monetary policies to support economic development, but the market's reaction was negative due to unmet expectations [2]. - Positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations led to a brief market rebound, but the overall market remains influenced by weak capital conditions and high supply [2][4]. 3. **Current Market Conditions**: - The current state of the rebar market is described as weak, with prices supported but not significantly increasing due to high supply and average demand [3][4]. - Steel mills are reportedly operating with a small profit margin of approximately 50 to 100 yuan per ton [3]. 4. **Future Outlook**: - The market is expected to remain weak unless there are significant changes in supply or demand dynamics [4]. - Potential for further declines in prices is anticipated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in late May and June [4]. 5. **Research Framework**: - The analysis framework includes macroeconomic factors, industry analysis, and technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding macro trends in guiding market movements [6][8][9]. 6. **Economic Indicators**: - Key economic indicators such as GDP growth, CPI, and PPI are essential for assessing the economic environment and its impact on the steel industry [10][11]. 7. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The relationship between supply, demand, and inventory levels is crucial, with a noted correlation between demand increases and inventory decreases [17][18]. - Current policies in the steel industry aim to limit production capacity and control crude steel output, impacting supply levels [19][20]. 8. **Investment Trends**: - Fixed asset investment in the black metal industry is influenced by market outlook; positive expectations lead to increased investment, while negative outlooks result in contraction [21]. 9. **Profitability and Production**: - Profit levels significantly affect production decisions; higher profits encourage production, while lower profits lead to reduced output [22][23]. - The profitability of different steel products varies, with hot-rolled steel showing better margins compared to rebar [23]. 10. **Demand Segments**: - The demand for steel is primarily driven by the real estate sector, infrastructure projects, and manufacturing, with current trends indicating a decline in real estate demand [25][26][27]. - Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and while manufacturing investment remains stable, it is subject to external pressures such as tariffs [30][31]. 11. **Export Dynamics**: - Export volumes are expected to decrease from 11 million tons to 9 million tons, reflecting a competitive pricing environment and external tariff pressures [32]. 12. **Seasonal Trends**: - Seasonal demand patterns are noted, with specific months historically showing increased demand for steel products [34]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the interplay between macroeconomic policies, industry-specific factors, and technical market indicators in making informed investment decisions [8][9][10]. - The need for continuous monitoring of inventory levels and production costs is emphasized, as these factors directly influence pricing and market stability [15][33].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, highlighting the performance and outlook for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [1][2][3][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold Price Outlook**: The gold price has shown a strong performance in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the second half due to ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and fiscal deficits [2][3]. - **Monetary and Financial Attributes**: The core drivers for gold's long-term performance are its monetary and financial attributes, which are expected to remain significant as U.S. debt and dollar credibility weaken [2][3]. - **Central Bank Support**: Global central banks' backing of gold reserves is anticipated to create a positive feedback loop supporting gold prices [3]. - **Silver Demand**: There is optimism for silver in the second half of the year, with a focus on its rigid supply and industrial applications, which are expected to drive price recovery [4][10]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum Trends**: The copper market is expected to show strong price elasticity due to low inventory levels, while aluminum has also seen a recovery post-tariff adjustments [7][10]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aluminum is tightening, with production capacity growth limited, which may lead to price increases [9]. - **Electricity Investment**: Strong investment in electricity infrastructure is noted, contributing to demand resilience across various sectors, including appliances and automotive [6][9]. - **Energy Metals**: The prices of lithium and nickel products are currently low, but there is potential for a bottom reversal if supply constraints are addressed [10][11]. Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The increase in tariffs is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the U.S., which may further support precious metals [2]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Current global inventories are at historically low levels, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and growth potential in the precious and industrial metals sectors [11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term demand concerns, the overall supply rigidity in silver is expected to lead to a supply shortage, supporting price increases [4]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The concentration of supply in countries like Guinea may pose risks to the raw material supply chain, which should be monitored closely [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious and industrial metals sectors.

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The steel market is in high - level shock due to the cooling of policy expectations. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved [1]. - The iron ore market shows resilient demand and is in shock operation. In the long - term, it presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in range - bound shock. Coke price increase has been implemented, and the profit of coking plants has improved [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state due to the increasing daily consumption in summer. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures closed down yesterday. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures corrected to varying degrees. Spot trading was weak overall, but the willingness to hold prices was strong, and the basis widened. The spot trading volume was 8630 tons [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The GDP in the first half of the year was well - completed. The expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Urban Work Conference were lower than expected, and the real estate data was still under pressure. The crude steel production from January to June decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved, improving the supply - demand relationship. The steel demand has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [2] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The trading sentiment was average, and steel mills mainly replenished stocks on demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.015 million tons, a 6.28% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.631 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand and logic: The molten iron production decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore showed good resilience. Affected by macro - sentiment, the iron ore price rebounded in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [4] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures market continued the pattern of mixed gains and losses yesterday, showing a range - bound operation. The port inventory of imported coal was decreasing, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. After the Nadam Fair, the coal supply at ports is expected to gradually recover. Mainstream steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increase, improving the coking profit [5]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coke, due to the rising raw material prices, the production cost of coking plants increased, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, driven by the premium of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased, and the demand from steel mills was better than expected during the off - season. For coking coal, the supply is gradually recovering but at a limited speed. After the port opens, the supply is expected to further increase. The demand side is active, and downstream enterprises have a good enthusiasm for replenishing stocks [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Shock [6] - Coke: Shock [6] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, as the temperature rises, the power load increases, and the pit - mouth coal price rises steadily. Some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the willingness to raise prices increased, with some coal types rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage of coal, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and the market coal price rose steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption increases, and the downstream demand strengthens. The coal price is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stock - replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategy Not provided in the content.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non - ferrous Metals Derivatives Daily Report [1][6] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 78,090 yuan/ton, down 0.26%, and the Shanghai Copper index increased by 2,144 lots to 512,300 lots [2] - Spot: In the East China market, the monthly spread converged significantly, downstream consumption was weak, and the premium opened high and went low; in the Guangdong market, inventory increased for 2 consecutive days, and downstream consumption was inactive; in the North China market, the monthly spread structure reversed on the delivery day, and the spot premium and discount rose sharply, but the trading activity was not high [3] Important Information - GDP: In the first half of the year, the GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year [4] - Imports: In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In June, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [4] Logic Analysis - Tariffs: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st with a rate of 50%. The US's siphoning of refined copper from the world is nearing its end. Before August 1st, in - transit supplies will continue to arrive at ports, and the Comex copper inventory will continue to increase. After that, the supply to the US will decrease significantly, and the supply shortage in non - US regions will be alleviated [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific strategy mentioned - Arbitrage: No specific strategy mentioned - Options: No specific strategy mentioned Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 38 yuan to 3,165 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,337 lots to 413,800 lots [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of Alumina by Aladdin rose 5 yuan to 3,175 yuan; the national weighted index rose 8.6 yuan to 3,210.8 yuan [9] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, emphasizing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [10] - Inventory: As of July 15th, the alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 25,526 tons, a net increase of 2,111 tons [11] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: The operating capacity of alumina remained flat week - on - week, but production was still increasing. The supply - demand pattern of alumina in July will gradually evolve from a tight balance to a structural surplus, but the demand for warehouse receipts may disperse the pressure of spot surplus [14] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, high - selling and low - buying within the range [15] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 20,430 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 8,776 lots to 635,800 lots [18] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,510 yuan, up 50 yuan; in South China, it was 20,500 yuan, up 40 yuan; in the Central Plains, it was 20,380 yuan, up 50 yuan [18] Relevant Information - Inventory: On July 15th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets decreased by 0.3 tons compared with the previous trading day [19] - Industry: In May 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.92GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.03%. From January to May, the cumulative installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 149.97% [19] Trading Logic - Macro: The US tariff negotiation deadline was postponed to August 1st. Domestically, attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings this month [22] - Supply - demand: The negative feedback of the fundamentals is still there. The production of aluminum rods has been reduced for three consecutive weeks, and the ingot casting has increased, driving up the inventory of aluminum ingots in social warehouses. The demand in the off - season may not be too weak [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term, maintaining a bearish mindset [23] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [23] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract remained flat at 19,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 31 lots to 9,982 lots [25] - Spot: On July 15th, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China remained flat at 19,600 yuan/ton, and the imported price remained flat at 19,300 yuan/ton [25] Relevant Information - Production: In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, of which the output of ADC12 increased by 2.46 million tons to 32.6 million tons [25] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 26,680 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from the previous trading day [26] Trading Logic - Supply: Enterprises are generally active in shipping, but actual transactions are blocked. The supply of deliverable products is stable, and non - deliverable product inventory is transferred to social inventory. Raw materials are in short supply [27] - Demand: Downstream die - casting enterprises generally have insufficient orders, mostly replenish inventory in small quantities as needed or consume inventory, and postpone purchases except for rigid demand [27] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Under pressure at high levels, maintaining a bearish mindset [30] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan; consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 400 yuan [30] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [30] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.54% to 22,085 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc index decreased by 1,770 lots to 236,500 lots [31] - Spot: In the Shanghai market, traders continued to actively sell goods. In the morning, the zinc price on the disk dropped, and some downstream enterprises placed orders to pick up goods. Some traders reported that spot transactions had improved [31] Relevant Information - Production: A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a regular maintenance for half a month in August, which is expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production [32] - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major markets was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with July 7th [32] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, the domestic zinc supply continues to increase, consumption has entered the off - season, and social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. Zinc prices may be under pressure to decline due to fundamentals [32] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and short positions can still be added at high prices [35] - Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options [35] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [35] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract fell 0.76% to 16,930 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead index increased by 1,494 lots to 96,300 lots [37] - Spot: On July 15th, the average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. Refined lead holders' quotes followed the decline slightly [37] Relevant Information - Inventory: As of July 14th, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major markets was 63,400 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with July 7th [38] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Currently, recycled lead is still in a loss - making situation, and the willingness to start production is difficult to improve. In July, there are maintenance plans for domestic primary lead smelting, which will have a certain impact on primary lead supply. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and the production of battery enterprises has improved [39] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range [40] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [40] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [40] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 fell 1,390 to 119,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 14,499 lots [42] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained flat at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of electrowon nickel remained flat at 100 yuan/ton [42] Relevant Information - Exploration: Canadian Nickel Company announced positive results from its latest exploration drilling at the MacDiarmid project, discovering a new mineralized area [43] - Production: In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4% [43] Logic Analysis - Market: The market's concern about US tariffs has resurfaced, and commodities generally fell overnight. The supply and demand of refined nickel are both weak in the off - season, and the short - term inventory is steadily increasing slightly [45] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weakening in a volatile manner [45] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [46] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [47] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 rose 10 to 12,695 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 11,703 lots [49] - Spot: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel was 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled stainless steel was 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton [49] Relevant Information - Transaction: On July 14th, a stainless steel plant in South China purchased high - nickel pig iron at a price of 900 yuan/nickel point, with a total transaction volume of over 10,000 tons and a delivery period in mid - to - late August [50] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Stainless steel's external demand is restricted by tariffs and re - export obstacles, and domestic demand has also entered the off - season. The demand is not optimistic, and it is difficult to absorb the current inventory pressure [50] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [51] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [52] Group 10: Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 8,785 yuan/ton, up 2.81% [54] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened significantly during the day, generally rising by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [56] Relevant Information - Policy: On July 1st, the US Department of Commerce launched a 232 - clause investigation into imported drones and their components, as well as polysilicon and its derivatives [57] Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand: The production of leading large - scale factories has been reduced by nearly 40%, with a monthly output reduction of 60,000 tons; southwest silicon factories are gradually resuming production, with a monthly output increase of about 40,000 tons. In July, the output of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons [58] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term [58] - Options: None for now [58] - Arbitrage: Stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [58] Group 11: Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market news, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell during the day, closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, up 2.78% [59] - Spot: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network statistics, the spot price of polysilicon was adjusted downward during the day, and the average price of N - type granular silicon decreased by 0.5 yuan/kg [59] Relevant Information - Market: After SMM's research, the market views and price adjustment trends of the top 5 component factories are divergent. Some leading component enterprises have officially raised the distributed guidance price [60] Comprehensive Analysis - Price: If a fixed price is set as the minimum price limit for the polysilicon industry, the high point of the polysilicon futures price will be the industry's minimum price limit. It is expected that the polysilicon futures price will fluctuate in the range of (37,000, 45,000) in the short term [63] Strategy - Unilateral: Long positions should consider taking profits [64] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [64] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [64] Group 12: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose 140 to 66,100 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 12,117 lots, and the warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1 to 11,203 tons [65] - Spot: The SMM - quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 to 63,300 yuan/ton [65] Relevant Information - Project: On the evening of July 14th, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary's invested company, Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., received a mining license [66] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand: Recently, there have been many supply - side disturbance news, but it has not had a substantial impact on production. The supply elasticity of domestic lithium salts is still large. In July, the off - season is not weak, and the price is difficult to fall deeply [67] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Avoid risks in the short term and wait for the right - hand short - selling opportunity [70] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [70] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [70] Group 13: Industry Data - Multiple metal varieties' daily data tables are provided, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase, with expectations for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, a fundamental reversal in the long-term trend appears unlikely due to persistent challenges in the real estate market, supply-side constraints, and significant inventory pressures [2][5][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Inventory and Price Dynamics**: In H1 2025, glass inventory in Hubei increased by 44% year-on-year, leading to a decline in futures prices. The futures market is under pressure due to regional price arbitrage in the spot market [1][2]. - **Cost and Losses**: Futures prices fell below the cash flow cost of petroleum coke facilities in Hubei by 25%, resulting in severe losses that contributed to a recent price rebound [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Current daily production capacity stands at 158,000 tons, the lowest in five years, but only a 10-12% reduction from historical peaks. Approximately 22% of production facilities have been operational for 8-10 years and are nearing a cold repair period [1][6]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with no significant recovery in the real estate sector to drive demand. If demand does not improve and inventory continues to accumulate, market-driven production cuts may occur in Q4 without government intervention [1][6][9]. - **Future Supply Needs**: To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry needs to reduce production by about 10%. Current supply is estimated at 4.5-4.7 million tons, necessitating an increase of approximately 500,000 tons to reach a demand level of 5 million tons [3][8]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The establishment of a unified national market and related policies may reduce ineffective competition and encourage the exit of low-quality production capacities, which could have a positive long-term impact on the industry [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Feedback Loop**: The main factors affecting the negative feedback loop in the glass industry include a weak real estate market, lack of significant production cuts, and ongoing inventory pressures. Breaking this cycle requires effective production cuts or sustained demand improvement, neither of which is currently in place [9][10]. - **Production Decisions**: The industry typically avoids production cuts in H1 due to seasonal demand, with reductions more likely in Q3 or Q4 when many facilities reach their operational limits and require maintenance [11][12]. - **Cost Structure**: The cash costs for petroleum coke and natural gas are approximately 1,200-1,220 RMB and 1,300-1,350 RMB, respectively, while coal gas is cheaper at about 950-1,000 RMB. Current glass prices are around 1,000 RMB, close to the bottom [13][14]. - **Profitability Context**: Despite current losses of about 200 RMB per ton, the glass industry has historically seen profits exceeding 30% from 2016 to 2021, indicating that supply decisions are more influenced by cash flow and operational age rather than immediate profitability [15]. Regional Supply Disturbances - In the Shahe region, coal-to-gas projects are underway but face operational instability. Hubei plans to phase out petroleum coke facilities over the next few years, increasing the proportion of clean energy, although no definitive timeline has been established [16][17].