制造·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 风电行业一季度景气度回升，收入同比增长 15%，归母净利润同比增长 3%，为近三年首次。零部件环节盈利显著修复，全产业链存货和应收账款 周转加速，看好 2025 年量利齐升与业绩估值双击。 • 光伏主产业链仍处于景气筑底状态，但储能逆变器环节表现亮眼。一季度 硅片、电池片及硅片组件辅材环节毛利率明显修复，电池片环节率先实现 毛利转正。建议关注经营稳健的头部公司及供需关系良好的核心辅材。 • 新能源车受益于以旧换新政策和出海加速，一季度销量稳定增长。锂电板 块自去年二季度进入复苏阶段，今年一季度逐步进入繁荣期，库存周期从 被动去库向主动补库转移。推荐具备低成本路线和强爆款打造能力的车企。 • 锂电产业链中，高压实密度材料的磷酸铁锂和六氟磷酸锂，以及电芯结构 件、辅材、负极铁锂、三元前驱体隔膜等细分赛道值得重点关注。关注固 态电池产业化进度及布局机器人、半导体等第二增长曲线的公司。 • 电网板块稳步增长，2024 年营收增速约 12%-13%，净利润保持稳定增 长。出海和主网设备环节资本开支高速增长，2025 年一季度电力设备出 口同比增长 17%。 ...

Economic Impact - The inbound economy is expected to boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025[4] - Inbound tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 0.5% in 2024 to 0.65% in 2025[4] - The number of inbound tourists is anticipated to recover from 130 million to 150 million by 2025, with per capita spending increasing by 15% to $821[4] Consumption and Retail - The new tax refund policy is expected to increase retail sales growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2025[5] - Inbound consumption is composed of approximately 80% service consumption and 20% goods consumption[5] - The estimated additional boost to goods consumption in 2025 is projected to be between 57 billion to 74.8 billion yuan[5] Industrial Performance - In March, industrial revenue grew by 4.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.6 percentage point increase from the previous value[6] - The total profit for March turned positive at 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery from negative growth[6] - The contribution to profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year was +7.5, -2.6, and -3.3 percentage points respectively[6] Profit Distribution - As of March, the profit share of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries was 29.9%, 38.2%, and 21.1% respectively[7] - Upstream profit growth improved to -7.4%, primarily due to rising prices in non-ferrous metals[7] - Midstream sectors benefitted from new policies, with significant profit growth in computer communication and electrical machinery sectors[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current reality of electrolytic aluminum is not particularly weak, but it has shown a marginal weakening compared to last week. In the short term, the price remains relatively firm, but in the future, especially from June to August, downstream consumption is expected to weaken more significantly, and the downside space of aluminum prices may be more worthy of attention. The market's emotional feedback on tariffs has become dull in the short term, but the event may still be in the process of gradual digestion. [3] - Alumina prices are continuing to grind at the bottom, and it is necessary to examine the willingness of funds. Although the micro - fundamentals currently lack sufficient bullish support, the recent stabilization and rebound of the spot side may be partly due to the replenishment of northern electrolytic aluminum production areas, the short - term price support of alumina manufacturers, and the increase in tender prices by middlemen. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum is gradually shifting to a C - structure, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from 35 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina is narrowing, with the premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changing from 24 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changing from 59 yuan/ton to 28 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between near - term contracts of SHFE aluminum are narrowing. [10] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has continued to rise, with a slight decline during the week, and the trading volume of the alumina main contract has also slightly declined during the week. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract has slightly decreased but is higher than the same period last year. The open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level. [16] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days have increased synchronously. As of April 25, the weekly import bauxite port inventory of SteelHome has shown a significant increase, with a week - on - week increase of 390,000 tons, and the port inventory days have also increased synchronously. [20] - In March, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country has slightly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons, while the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants have decreased. [26] - Port shipments and sea - drifting inventory have both declined significantly. As of April 25, the weekly shipments from Guinea and Australian ports have decreased significantly, and the Australian sea - drifting inventory has also decreased significantly, while the Guinea sea - drifting inventory has slightly increased. [27] - Out - port and in - port volumes have declined significantly. As of April 18, the out - port volumes from Australian and Guinean ports and the in - port volume of bauxite under the SMM caliber have all decreased significantly. [32] - **Alumina**: - The total national inventory has decreased, but the port inventory has increased significantly. This week, the total alumina inventory has decreased by 70,000 tons week - on - week. The in - plant inventory has decreased, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the station/on - the - way inventory has slightly decreased. [42] - The full - caliber inventory of阿拉丁 has decreased. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory has decreased by 260,000 tons week - on - week, with a significant decrease in the in - plant inventory, a stable electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, a significant increase in the port inventory, and a decrease in the yard/station/on - the - way inventory. [46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline at a fast pace. As of April 24, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 24,000 tons to 664,000 tons, and the de - stocking pace is faster than in previous years. [52] - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot and in - plant inventories have continued to decline, and the out - port volume has slightly increased. This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot and in - plant inventories have decreased by 33,000 tons and 13,500 tons respectively week - on - week. [53] - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have declined significantly. Since March, the finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - foil have decreased significantly, and the raw material inventory ratio of plate - foil has continued to decline, while that of aluminum profiles has remained relatively flat. [55] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply has recovered, but the increase is limited. In March, the domestic bauxite output under both the SteelHome and SMM calibers has increased significantly, and imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. [60] - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has continued to decline, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been reversed. As of April 25, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country is 82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output is 1.594 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons week - on - week, but it is still at a high level in recent years. [63] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity has remained at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of March, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly recovered due to profit repair. As of April 24, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum under the SteelHome caliber is 840,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, and the output level remains at a six - year high. [67] - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum profiles and plate - foil has significantly increased. This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods has continued to decline, the output of aluminum rods has increased slightly, and the output of plate - foil has continued to rise. [70] - The operating rate of leading enterprises has slightly increased, providing some micro - level support. This week, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream enterprises has increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The operating rates of plate - strip and foil have remained flat, the operating rate of aluminum profiles has slightly increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables has remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to be under pressure, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy has slightly increased. [71][75] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: Profits have improved, and attention should be paid to the price of imported ore. This week, the profit of alumina has improved, with the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina under the SteelHome caliber being - 56.9 yuan/ton, and the loss has narrowed. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all shown slight losses, while the profit performance of Guangxi is better than that of other regions. [81] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Profits have fully recovered, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The profits of electrolytic aluminum have fully recovered, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors and interfered with market expectations. [88] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. The weekly processing fee of aluminum rods has decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level. [89] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum have declined. [97] - **Export**: In March, the export of aluminum products has significantly recovered. In March 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly increased, with a month - on - month increase of 98,000 tons. [99] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for aluminum rods has significantly recovered, and the monthly output of automobiles has increased significantly. [106]

Core Viewpoint - April is a critical observation period for fundamental and policy changes, with key focuses on potential risks of fundamental fluctuations, the marginal easing of central bank attitudes, and the further developments following the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration [1] Macro: Economic Cycle Position and State - The current Chinese economy exhibits three significant characteristics: 1. The phase of maximum downward pressure has likely passed, with the inventory cycle indicating that 2022-2023 was the most challenging period, and the low point of this cycle is expected to be at the end of 2023 to early 2024 [2] 2. Moving away from the peak of downward pressure does not imply a rapid rebound, as recent cycles indicate that the economy remains in a state of fluctuation [2] 3. Short-term economic recovery faces obstacles due to external trade pressures and slow recovery in real estate investment and consumption [2] Policy: Important Observation Window for Central Bank Attitude - April serves as a crucial observation window for the central bank's stance, focusing on liquidity management and potential hawkish signals, especially in light of significant bond issuance pressure [3] - The speed and proportion of government bond issuance in April will be vital for determining economic conditions in the second quarter [3] Overseas: Subtle Changes in Sentiment - The overall performance of the U.S. economy shows marginal changes, with a slight increase in unemployment and resilient labor market conditions, while retail sales have improved from negative growth [4] - Investor sentiment is changing rapidly, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies [4] Major Asset Strategy Judgments - A-shares are experiencing a style switch, driven by clearer fundamental outlines and cyclical changes in market sentiment, leading to a shift in market style [5] - Bond market rates are expected to remain volatile, with the central bank's liquidity stance influencing bond yields [6] - Commodity prices, particularly copper and gold, are shifting focus back to fundamentals as tariff expectations have been priced in [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for February 2025 shows a slight recovery to 50.6, indicating a phase of resilience in the global economy, but it remains fragile, characterized by "China's stability, emerging markets warming, Europe bottoming out, the US declining, and Canada and Mexico contracting" [1][2]. Regional Analysis - **Asia**: Economic performance remains mixed, with China's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 due to accelerated resumption of work and production. Japan and South Korea's PMIs are near the threshold, at 49.0 and 49.9 respectively, while Southeast Asia shows marginal improvement [3]. - **Europe**: Most countries show marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI but remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI is at 46.5, slightly above previous values, indicating a need for cautious optimism as the Eurozone's GDP growth remains around zero [3]. - **Americas**: Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs have declined, with Canada's PMI dropping significantly from 51.6 to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3]. US Manufacturing Insights - The US manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.3, down from 50.9, failing to maintain the earlier signs of resilience. Key indicators show a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, and a cooling labor market [4]. - The inventory cycle is still in a bottoming phase, and trade issues may continue to impact US foreign trade performance in the second quarter. The expectation is for the US manufacturing PMI to fluctuate around 50 in the first half of the year [4]. Export Trends - South Korea's export growth improved from -10.2% to 1%, influenced by "export rush" and temporary recovery in US manufacturing demand. China's export growth increased by 4.0 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2024 [5]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariff increases will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential short-term benefits from "export rush" before tariffs take effect [5].

中国宏观经济2025年3月报 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策 方正中期研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 F3050205(从业) Z0013871(投资咨询) 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 2 基本面与宏观供需——主要观点 年初以来国内经济基本延续去年四季度的修复趋势，且春节假期后修复速度略有加快。其中消费增长略超预期，投资暂 时变动不大，出口则维持一定韧性。当前公布的1、2月经济数据不多，我们本期更多从高频数据角度观察经济。 产出方面，春节前后受到假期影响，主要工业品生产以及建筑业生产放缓，但服务业产出增长明显。对于制造业，发电 量、汽车轮胎开工等基本稳定。我们认为短期来看库存周期暂时处于加库存阶段，政策影响依然巨大，且外需带动也没 有减弱。但今年仍面临库存周期回落的潜在影响，这也将是经济持续面临的内生风险。 需求方面，外需有望维持任性，从高频和领先数据看，半导体等高端制造业出口仍存在继 ...

以下文章来源于A视野 ，作者ME A森 A视野 . 发现一个真实的世界 作者：ME A森 来源：A视野（ID： AndsonVision ） 01 最近，不少人询问： 是不是行情结束了？ 如果将行情仅仅定义为9月底的那种风格，那么，近期要再看到，颇有难度了。 可是，如果我们说的是全面救市引发的牛市行情，我的态度是，这才哪儿到哪儿？整个行情才刚刚启 动！ 这次散户一看村里这么大的阵仗，还有信用背书，冲的比机构都快。 这种玩法，你觉得是村里要的东西吗？ 所以，散户猜中了村里信用背书的用意，却没有去顾及村里想要的节奏、村里的难处和村里希望救市 红利的周期。 这也就导致不少人在10月8日开盘就冲进去后，直接站岗。 外需增速要不行了，拉内需正当其时！ 然后，不明就里的冲进去后，又不明就里的骂骂咧咧，这其实是对自己手里的真金白银的浪费，很不 应该。 必须看到， 我们跟鹰酱的博弈，仍在如火如荼之中，这才是时代底色。 只不过，鹰酱现在秉持的"攘外必先安内"的原则。 大家不要觉得吹牛老爹进去了，好像就跟鹰酱大选没关系，好像就是娱乐圈的花边新闻。 鹰酱近期内部乱的很，多方都想趁机去拿捏它们。 小以要拿捏，大毛要拿捏，弯弯要拿捏， ...