Group 1 - The academic community overwhelmingly supports Christopher Waller as the best candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with 82% of surveyed economists favoring him, but only 20% believe he will actually secure the position in 2026 [1][2] - Political dynamics suggest that Kevin Hassett is viewed as a more likely candidate for the role, with 39% of respondents indicating he has better chances, despite no one expressing a desire for him to take the position [1][2] - Waller's independent stance on monetary policy has garnered academic support but may hinder his nomination due to the political preferences of the Trump administration, which favors candidates who align with its agenda [1][2] Group 2 - The new chair will face significant challenges in formulating monetary policy amid a weak labor market and inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with the Federal Reserve recently lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4-4.25% [3][4] - Most Federal Reserve officials are more concerned about slowing job growth than inflation risks, although surveyed economists warn of rising stagflation risks, where unemployment and inflation could rise simultaneously [3][4] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve complicates its decision-making, with historical tendencies showing a preference for prioritizing employment over inflation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macro research firm TSLombard presents a contrasting view to the prevailing narrative of resilience in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the economy may be heading towards a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, characterized by a rebound in inflation [1]. Economic Conditions - Stagflation is described as a "thorny problem" where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high, limiting the Federal Reserve's policy options [3]. - Mainstream forecasting institutions view stagflation as a "marginal risk," supported by recent moderate inflation data and strong economic growth, which together diminish concerns about stagflation [3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has officially restarted its rate-cutting cycle, a decision viewed by TSLombard's global macro head, Dario Perkins, as a "wrong start" [3]. - Perkins argues that the Fed's concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market, amidst fears that tariffs may push inflation above target, are significantly exaggerated [3]. Inflation Outlook - Perkins indicates that the anticipated cooling of inflation in 2025 is not due to endogenous economic factors but rather a result of "significant negative supply shocks" within the economic system [3]. - He emphasizes that the current demand weakness is "temporary," with demand likely to accelerate again in 2026, leading to a rebound in consumer prices [3]. Factors Supporting Demand Rebound - **Release of Suppressed Demand**: The easing of tariff policies and uncertainties in the job market is expected to lead to a resurgence in previously postponed consumer plans, with Perkins predicting a demand rebound in 2026 [4]. - **Transmission Effects of Fed's Easing**: The immediate impact of monetary policy easing is evident in interest-sensitive sectors, such as real estate, where new home sales surged by 20% month-on-month in August, indicating a recovery in demand [4]. - **Global Central Bank Coordination**: The collaborative easing measures by multiple central banks over the past year are expected to support global economic growth, which will, in turn, boost U.S. external demand [4]. - **Fiscal Policy Initiatives**: Stimulus measures from the Trump administration and recent fiscal plans from major economies like Germany are anticipated to enhance domestic demand, further strengthening the recovery momentum [4]. Inflation Risks - Perkins warns that if demand rebounds as expected and the Fed continues to cut rates, inflation could shift from "moderate" to "sticky," potentially accelerating again [5].

Group 1 - The current U.S. economic situation is complex, and simply lowering interest rates will not resolve the underlying issues [1][19] - The Federal Reserve is now focusing more on employment data, but recent manipulations of employment statistics complicate the decision-making process [3][5] - Political pressures are influencing economic data, which undermines the Federal Reserve's independence and complicates interest rate policy [5][15] Group 2 - The traditional mechanism of lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending is currently ineffective, as both consumers and businesses are reluctant to take on debt [7][11] - The housing market is struggling, with new home sales at a record low and high inventory levels, leading to a lack of consumer confidence in real estate investments [9][11] - Small businesses are facing significant challenges, with many selling off core assets due to financial strain, indicating a lack of confidence in economic recovery [11][19] Group 3 - Inflation remains a persistent issue, driven by factors such as de-globalization and rising costs, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to control [13][15] - The service sector, which constitutes 80% of the U.S. GDP, is particularly vulnerable to inflationary pressures, complicating efforts to stabilize the economy [13][15] - The potential for a controlled recession could help restore confidence in the U.S. dollar and government bonds, but political reluctance to accept such measures poses a risk [15][19] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with the risk of falling into a liquidity trap and prolonged stagflation if current trends continue [17][19] - The reliance on monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is increasingly seen as inadequate to address deep-rooted economic challenges [17][19] - The interconnectedness of global economies means that U.S. economic instability could have far-reaching implications for the global market [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has implemented its first interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, revealing internal divisions among its officials regarding future monetary policy direction [1][14]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - There is a split among Federal Reserve officials, with 7 opposing further rate cuts and 10 supporting a more aggressive approach, indicating uncertainty in future policy decisions [1][7]. - Officials like Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Milan advocate for faster and larger rate cuts, while others express concerns about the potential risks of such actions [1][10]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - The core inflation indicator remains above the 2% target, raising fears that aggressive rate cuts could lead to renewed spending and inflation, undermining previous efforts to stabilize prices [5][16]. - There are signals of a weakening job market, with only 20,000 new jobs added in August, raising concerns about the balance between combating inflation and supporting employment [7][16]. Group 3: Political Influences - Milan's extreme position for a 50 basis point cut is viewed as politically motivated, reflecting external pressures from former President Trump, who has historically called for more aggressive rate cuts [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, with officials cautioning against political interference in monetary policy decisions, which could lead to misjudgments and increased risks [10][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current policy divergence reflects the complex economic landscape, with persistent inflation pressures and a softening job market, necessitating a careful approach to future monetary policy [16]. - As more economic data becomes available, the Federal Reserve aims to find a balanced path that supports stable economic growth while managing inflation risks [16].

美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view that oil prices will decline throughout the year. It is expected that the supply - demand balance in the oil market will gradually break by the end of the year, and Brent crude oil prices are likely to challenge the $60/barrel mark again. The expected price range for the second half of the year is $57 - 86/barrel, with an average of $67/barrel. In the fourth quarter, supply is increasing while demand is seasonally decreasing, making oil prices prone to decline. The reference price range for Brent crude is $59 - 74/barrel, with an average of $64/barrel [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Fourth - Quarter Outlook - The report maintains previous views that oil prices will decline throughout the year. Non - OPEC+ supply will significantly increase in the second half of the year, and seasonal peak consumption will end in the third quarter, leading to a break in the oil market balance. Considering additional negative factors, the oil market remains difficult. The expected price range for the second half of the year is $57 - 86/barrel, with an average of $67/barrel. In the fourth quarter, supply increases while demand seasonally decreases, and the reference price range for Brent crude is $59 - 74/barrel, with an average of $64/barrel [1][2]. 2. Third - Quarter Market Review - In the third quarter, the trading center of oil prices gradually declined. The increase in early July was driven by strong demand, and subsequent increases were mostly due to geopolitical situations. Declines were driven by the disappearance of supply - risk - driven increases, high tariffs, poor non - farm employment reports, and OPEC+'s decision to gradually exit production - cut agreements. Excluding short - term disturbances, oil prices showed weakness after August, which was due to the market's consensus on supply surplus. The height of price rebounds also showed a decreasing trend [5]. 3. Crude Oil Balance Sheet (1) Supply Surplus Remains the Consensus - IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply expectations for three consecutive months, with non - OPEC+ supply growth far exceeding global demand growth. OPEC maintains an optimistic demand forecast and implies that OPEC+ needs to increase production to balance supply and demand. Overall, IEA and EIA expect future supply to far exceed demand and inventory to increase significantly, while OPEC is endorsing potential future production increases [7][8]. (2) The Balance Sheet Shows a Gradual Increase in Supply - Demand Surplus - According to the EIA balance sheet, supply exceeds demand in all quarters of this year and next year. After the summer peak consumption season, the supply - surplus pattern will expand. The surplus in the third and fourth quarters of this year and the first quarter of next year will exceed 2 million barrels per day, and the situation will improve in the second quarter of 2026 [10]. (3) The Narrative of Large - Scale Supply is Further Strengthened - IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply growth expectations. Compared with three months ago, their global supply growth expectations have increased by 900,000 and 790,000 barrels per day respectively. IEA attributes all the 900,000 - barrel - per - day increase to OPEC+, while EIA attributes most of the supply increase to non - OPEC+. OPEC has raised its 2026 Call On OPEC+ forecast to justify future production increases [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomics and Its Marginal Changes (1) The Essence of the Fed's Shift to Rate Cuts is the Increasing Risk in the Employment Market - The Fed has been hesitant about rate cuts this year due to signs of stagflation in the US economy. Traditional monetary policies are ineffective in stagflation. Currently, US core inflation is stubborn, and employment indicators have been disappointing for two consecutive months, indicating increasing employment market risks. The Fed's shift to preventive rate cuts is to prioritize economic stability [16][17]. (2) The Contradictory September Fed Meeting - The Fed cut rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The September dot - plot shows a significant downward shift, indicating that doves are gaining the upper hand. The median and average both decreased by 25BP. The meeting content is contradictory, with the policy statement highlighting employment risks while the economic forecast shows a decline in the unemployment rate. The report predicts that the Fed will cut rates twice in the second half of the year [20][21][22]. 5. Microeconomics and Its Marginal Changes (1) The Month - Spread Indicates a Weakening of Supply - Demand Fundamentals - The month - spread reflecting immediate supply - demand relations has weakened since August but rebounded slightly due to geopolitical situations. Global supply increases and seasonal demand decline will continue to pressure the oil market. The month - spread in the Middle East is relatively strong, supported by China's strategic oil reserves. China's implied inventory increase from March to August this year reached a monthly average of 1.33 million barrels per day, the highest since 2020 [24]. (2) Crack Spreads Still Provide Support - Crack spreads remain supported, mainly due to diesel. OPEC+'s production cuts since 2022 have reduced the supply of intermediate components, and sanctions on Russia have further decreased the supply of middle - distillates. Diesel crack spreads are the main support for the market, and the performance of US distillate oil consumption is a key signal [29][31]. (3) Production Will Continue to Rise in the Fourth Quarter - OPEC+ will gradually exit a 1.65 - million - barrel - per - day production - cut agreement in October and increased production by 137,000 barrels per day in that month. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries have closely followed their production targets. If calculated according to the IEA's report, OPEC+'s production - increase capacity will far exceed market expectations. Non - OPEC+ production is also increasing, with countries like Canada, Brazil, and others contributing to the growth. The current oil supply pattern fits the narrative of large - scale supply, and $55 - 60/barrel is considered a balance point for various stakeholders [33][39][40]. (4) Demand Gradually Moves Out of the Peak Season - Although crack spreads are temporarily strong, seasonal demand decline exists. After the peak travel season and summer power - generation demand in the Northern Hemisphere end, refinery maintenance will increase, and demand will decline. The fourth - quarter demand boost will be limited, and the market will focus on the weak demand in the first quarter [41][42]. (5) Pay Attention to Geopolitical and Sanction Disturbances - Geopolitical and sanction factors are the only things that can change the current large - scale supply situation. Russia will partially restrict diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban due to attacks on its refineries. EU and US sanctions on Russia have had limited long - term impacts on oil supply [43].

前言 聊起美国经济，最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事，这是资本的本质，也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号，但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题，早就不是"降多少息"，而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上，美联储和白宫的角力，已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确：短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业，言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来，降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题，毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业，但坏就坏在，美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标，而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据，特朗普对此震怒，随即解雇劳工统计局局长，任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态，认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整，但政策风向已明确：特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率，其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾：若就业数据被"修饰"，原本低迷的数据被调整 ...

现在市场啥样呢，大家都在猜，美联储啥时候降息啊，根据CME"美联储观察"，多数人觉得10月降息 的可能性比较大，12月可能会降更多，特别是9月25号那天，好多美联储官员都出来说话了，个个都发 表了自己对于降息的看法，以后还得接着关注开会的内容，最关键的还是通胀和劳动力市场数据，这直 接决定美联储的行动，还有全球经济，万一出点啥事，美国也得跟着遭殃，关税政策也有影响，长时间 下来，对通胀和经济肯定有影响，10月，12月，美联储议息会议，估计又得吵翻天。 其实大家也在想，这到底是怎么一回事，争议的背后，是害怕滞胀，就是经济停滞不前，物价还涨得厉 害，这种情况下，货币政策就不好使了，还有对就业市场的看法不一样，有人觉得好，有人觉得差，这 直接影响降息的决定，以及对于降息这个工具的理解，觉得降息到底是好是坏，有没有副作用，每个人 看法都不一样啊。 美国经济现在有点意思，通货膨胀在那杵着，劳动力市场也没个消停，美联储之前猛加息，现在内部意 见可大了，你说这接下来该咋办，谁也说不准啊。 降息，现在就是个烫手山芋，有人说通胀差不多了，劳动力市场看着也不结实，得降息，赶紧的，要不 然经济就完了，还说应该快点降、猛点降，可是吧 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the support from Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, for the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating potential further cuts in the future [2] - Daly emphasizes the need to balance inflation control and labor market support, suggesting that while inflation is still above the Fed's target, it is approaching it [2] - The silver T+D market experienced fluctuations, with a slight increase in price, closing at 10,354 yuan/kg, reflecting the impact of monetary policy on commodity prices [1][3] Group 2 - The silver T+D market showed a trading range with resistance levels noted between 10,400 and 11,000 yuan/kg, while support levels were identified between 9,900 and 10,278 yuan/kg [3] - Daly's comments suggest that the U.S. economy does not currently face a recession, and she denies the possibility of a "stagflation" scenario, indicating a more stable economic outlook [2] - The overall sentiment in the silver market is influenced by the high borrowing costs, which are expected to continue exerting downward pressure on inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments, highlighting contrasting views on the necessity and timing of potential rate cuts [4][10][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expressed concerns that excessive rate cuts could hinder inflation from returning to the Fed's 2% target, indicating that current policy is only slightly restrictive [6][8]. - Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee voiced unease about aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic environment shows signs of stagflation, which complicates the Fed's dual mandate [8][9]. - Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that inflation is close enough to the target to justify further rate cuts, emphasizing the fragility of the labor market [10][11]. Group 2: Rate Cut Probabilities - As of September 26, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 14.5%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 85.5%. For December, the probabilities are 4.3% for no change, 35.4% for a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and 60.4% for a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4]. Group 3: Aggressive Rate Cut Proposals - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan advocated for a rapid adjustment of monetary policy, proposing a series of 50 basis point cuts to quickly reach neutral interest rates, totaling a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points [10][12]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supported the recent rate cut decision and anticipated further cuts, asserting that the economy is not heading towards recession [12].