Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 26, the three major A-share indices all pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.60%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on September 26, closing at 4550.05, down 43.44 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 26, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1710.3, down 48.5 from the previous day [3] - The weighted index of coking coal trended weakly on September 26, closing at 1207.0 yuan, down 32.4 from the previous day [4] - For coke, port spot prices rose, with the price at Rizhao Port up 10 yuan/ton. Supply - rising coking coal prices increased costs for coke enterprises, squeezing profit margins, but production enthusiasm remained. Demand - steel mills' overall operation remained high, and rigid demand for coke increased as holidays approached, but terminal consumption was average with steel inventory accumulation, so overall restocking was expected to be limited [5] - For coking coal, prices in some regions changed. Supply - most mines in production areas operated normally, traders were actively buying, demand was good, and coal mine shipments were smooth, with online auctions generally showing an upward trend [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Last Friday, ICE raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short positions reduced to avoid risks, and the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and closed slightly lower in the night session on September 26. As of the week ending September 23, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 22,260 contracts to 168,357 contracts [5] Rubber - Due to market concerns about the impact of tariffs on the European auto industry and the holiday effect, long - position liquidation pressured Shanghai rubber futures to fall on September 26. As of September 26, Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory decreased by 8852 tons to 187,972 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5500 tons to 149,420 tons. The inventory of 20 - grade rubber decreased by 1713 tons to 47,982 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1611 tons to 42,942 tons [6] Palm Oil - On the night of September 26, palm oil futures continued to trade in a narrow range, with prices rebounding slightly from the daytime close but still within the daytime price range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line, at 9278, up 0.45% from the daytime close. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [6][7] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 26, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products after a two - day suspension. Brazil's ANEC lowered the estimated soybean exports for September from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons. Domestically, on September 26, the main soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. Chinese buyers actively ordered Argentine soybeans, improving the long - term supply situation. Currently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China is still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. In the short term, soybean meal supply is abundant [7] Live Hogs - On September 26, live hog futures trended weakly. The main LH2511 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Currently, production capacity is being released intensively, with group farms accelerating the slaughter of standard hogs and individual pig farmers more willing to sell. Traditional demand is approaching the peak season, and pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, but market consumption has not met expectations and is not enough to strongly support prices [8] Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthening, and the US dollar index has declined. China will implement more active consumption - expansion policies, and with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the outlook for the copper industry has improved, with downstream copper product production expected to pick up significantly, and refined copper demand may increase significantly. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease, and copper prices are expected to rise [8] Iron Ore - On September 26, the main iron ore 2601 contract fell 1.74% to close at 790 yuan. Iron ore shipments decreased while arrivals increased, and pig iron production remained high. As pre - holiday restocking nears the end, steel mills' purchasing pace has slowed down, and the upward space for iron ore may be limited. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [8] Asphalt - On September 26, the main asphalt 2511 contract rose 0.7% to close at 3450 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased month - on - month, social inventory continued to decline, while refinery inventory pressure increased, and shipments continued to rise. In the north, pre - holiday construction rush still supports demand to some extent, but in the south, heavy rainfall has weakened demand. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 26, the 2511 log contract opened at 806, with a low of 805, a high of 810, and closed at 808.5, with a reduction of 668 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the resistance at 815 - 820. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak. Pay attention to spot prices during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [9] Cotton - On the night of September 26, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,400 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 186 lots from the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is between 6.15 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram [10] Steel - Recently, typhoons in South China and the upcoming double - holiday have affected construction site demand. However, as the weather cools down, steel demand may recover after the holiday. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures price to rise rapidly, but now there is a lack of further upward momentum. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the futures price. Pay attention to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [10] Alumina - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments remain low, which is reflected in the domestic arrival data. Northern Chinese bauxite mines have not resumed production, and only some compliant capacities are expected to resume by the end of the year due to environmental protection policies. Although bauxite inventory has decreased slightly, the absolute inventory is still high, and bauxite supply is still abundant. Meanwhile, the weakening alumina price has increased the price - cutting intention of alumina plants. In the short term, bauxite prices may remain weakly volatile. The core factor leading the alumina price is still oversupply. Currently, domestic operating capacity remains high, and recently imported alumina from overseas has arrived in large quantities, increasing inventory and causing prices to fall both at home and abroad. In the short term, the price may trend weakly [11] Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the supply of alumina, the raw material, is still excessive, and the spot price is close to the cost line and at a low level. Electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit margins and are enthusiastic about production. On the supply side, previously replaced capacity projects have gradually been completed and put into operation, and with the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly again, and high - level operation may lead to a slight increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply. On the demand side, positive consumption - expansion policies have improved the outlook for aluminum product consumption, and the improvement of downstream production will boost aluminum demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand [11]

Summary of Organic Silicon Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a significant shift in global production capacity towards China, with projections indicating that by 2025, China's organic silicon monomer capacity will account for 77.33% of the global total, an increase of 10.39% from 2021 [1][2][3] - China's dependency on imports of polysiloxane has decreased to below 5%, primarily importing high-end and specialty products [1][2] - The industry is facing a slowdown in capacity growth, with no new capacity expected to be released in 2025 [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate in the organic silicon industry has declined, with a reported rate of 76.15% in the first three quarters of the year [1][3] - DMC prices have reached a near ten-year low due to rapid supply growth and limited demand increase, with prices dropping to 10,200 RMB/ton [1][4][10] - The consumption structure of downstream products is changing, with the demand for silicone rubber decreasing to 59% by 2024, while silicone oil demand is increasing to 38.77% [1][7] Export Trends - China's polysiloxane exports have shown a slowdown, with a 1.47% year-on-year increase in the first eight months of 2025, maintaining a high export dependency of 21.23% [1][9] - The global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions are impacting export growth rates [9] Price and Profitability - DMC prices have fluctuated significantly, with a notable drop in profitability across the industry. The average loss for DMC products reached 1,204 RMB/ton by September 2025, an increase in loss compared to the previous year [12] - Major companies in the organic silicon sector have reported a decline in net profits, with some companies like Hesheng Silicon experiencing losses for the first time [12] Future Outlook - The organic silicon industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.17% over the next five years, with new capacity primarily located in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [2][13] - The demand for organic silicon in sectors such as electric vehicles, medical applications, and electronics is projected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and increasing market penetration [14][21] - The overall market for organic silicon is anticipated to maintain growth, despite challenges in traditional sectors like construction [22][23] Key Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity, fluctuating prices, and competition, which may lead to further market volatility [15][18] - The potential for new projects to restart could impact supply-demand balance, leading to cyclical fluctuations in the market [15] Conclusion - The organic silicon industry is at a critical juncture, with significant shifts in production capacity, changing demand dynamics, and evolving market conditions. The focus on high-end applications and the integration of new technologies will be crucial for future growth and stability in the sector [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4, asphalt is expected to continue its wide - range oscillatory trend, mainly due to the game between fundamentals and the cost side. The high production on the supply side will offset the positive support from the improved demand driven by terminal rush - work at the beginning of Q4. Crude oil lacks directional guidance under the dual influence of fundamentals and geopolitics, with OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthening the expectation of supply surplus in Q4, while geopolitical fluctuations provide intermittent support for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the BU2512 contract in the range of 3,250 - 3,550 yuan/ton [50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, asphalt showed an oscillatory and weakening trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. The weak operation of crude oil due to OPEC+ production increase weakened cost support, and nationwide heavy rainfall hindered terminal construction, resulting in high social inventory and a lack of upward drive for the market. Overall, asphalt mainly fluctuated with crude oil in Q3 [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Impact**: Frequent geopolitical events caused intermittent disturbances to oil prices. Meetings between the US and Russian presidents, threats of sanctions from the US, suspension of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and threats of tariff hikes on Russian oil buyers by the US and Europe all affected the oil market. In the future, geopolitics is expected to remain a major influencing factor for oil prices in Q4 [9]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ completed a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase one year ahead of schedule in September and initiated a new round of production increase starting in October. The over - expected production increase demonstrated OPEC+'s determination to regain market share. OPEC+ also plans to compensate for 4.779 million barrels per day of excess production by July 2026, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having specific compensation plans. However, Kazakhstan's failure to effectively implement production cuts may lead to concerns about an internal price war within OPEC+ [10][12]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt production totaled 5.0346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9173 million tons. The weekly production in September reached a new high for the year, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to increase by 9% month - on - month and 46% year - on - year. The refinery operating rate increased steadily in Q3 and rose rapidly in September. It is expected that asphalt production will be high in the early part of Q4 and then decline as refineries enter the maintenance phase [13][19]. - **Demand Side**: From July to August, domestic asphalt shipments totaled 3.649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.187 million tons (5.4% year - on - year increase). The weekly shipments showed a U - shaped trend in Q3, with demand weakening from July to August due to rainfall and rebounding in September. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity remained stable and increased, reaching 18.94% as of September 22, a year - on - year increase of 0.86 percentage points. However, as the demand peak season ends, both demand and production capacity utilization may face downward pressure [21][24]. - **Import and Export**: From July to August, asphalt imports totaled 0.6497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0262 million tons, with a relatively stable average import price. Exports totaled 0.1365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0659 million tons, and the average export price increased slightly [30][34]. - **Inventory**: Both factory and social inventories of asphalt showed a downward trend in Q3. Factory inventory reached 0.658 million tons as of September 26, a year - on - year decrease of 0.265 million tons (40.27% year - on - year decrease). Social inventory decreased after rainfall ended in August. In Q4, both are expected to continue the seasonal de - stocking trend [38][42]. - **Price Spread**: In Q3, the crack spread of asphalt remained high and oscillated within a narrow range, while the diluted processing profit of asphalt was at a low level in recent years, which restricted the release of local refinery production capacity. In Q4, the crack spread is expected to remain high as demand enters the off - season [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Lithium - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures market oscillated slightly stronger, driven by the strength of lithium - battery stocks and the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The project of Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake has been put into operation, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. - Production data has increased slightly, with new projects and lithium spodumene toll - processing contributing to the increase. Demand is steadily optimistic, and the whole industry chain is de - stocking. - In the short term, the supply path is clear, and the trading space is weakened. The strong demand in the peak season supports the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures market oscillated slightly higher, while the spot market was cautious. The Fed's interest - rate cut has been implemented, and the nickel - ore price is firm. The 9 - month crude - steel production is expected to increase, mainly in the 300 - series. - The demand improvement in the peak season is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short term, the market will mainly oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan per ton [6]. Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market continued to oscillate strongly, and the spot price also increased. The Indonesian nickel - mining association's stance is positive but has limited impact. - The refined - nickel spot trading is average, the ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price has declined. The demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for nickel sulfate has improved. - In the short term, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan per ton [8]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous sector due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side is loose, with increasing imports and high smelting rates. The demand side shows differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. - In the short term, the price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward rebound needs demand improvement and continuous improvement of interest - rate cut expectations. The market is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan per ton [11]. Copper - Freeport's announcement of the Grasberg mine accident has intensified concerns about the tight supply of global copper mines. The macro - environment is positive, with expected interest - rate cuts. - The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply shortage at the mine end supports the copper price. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and the short - term price is rising due to mine - end disturbances. The main support level is 81,000 - 81,500 yuan per ton [13]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is low. The demand is weak, and although AI and photovoltaic industries drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The supply side supports the tin price, which continues to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan per ton [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the casting - aluminum - alloy futures price oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is high. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking supports the price. - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton [17]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price rebounded slightly, but the market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan per ton. - For aluminum, the Fed's interest - rate cut has affected the market sentiment. The supply pressure exists, and the demand in the peak season and pre - holiday stocking support the price. The inventory has shown a positive signal. The short - term price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan per ton [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly, while the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea has increased. The basis and some monthly spreads have changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production, demand, and imports of lithium carbonate increased, while the inventory decreased. The production capacity in September increased, and the operating rate in August also rose [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan have changed, and the basis and some monthly spreads have also changed. The raw - material prices are mostly stable [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China has decreased, while the imports and exports have changed. The social inventory of the 300 - series has increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts have decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from different raw materials has also changed [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined - nickel production has increased, while imports have decreased. The SHFE inventory and social inventory have increased, and the LME inventory is stable [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot has increased, and the basis, import loss, and monthly spreads have changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of refined zinc increased, while exports decreased. The operating rates of downstream industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories have decreased [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. have increased significantly, and the basis, refined - scrap spread, and other indicators have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of electrolytic copper decreased. The operating rates of copper - rod production have increased, and the inventories in different regions have changed [13]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the imports of tin ore decreased, while the production and imports of refined tin increased. The exports of refined tin and Indonesian refined tin decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse receipts have decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy in different regions have increased slightly, and the refined - scrap spreads in different regions have decreased. The monthly spreads have changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum have changed. The imports and exports of un - wrought aluminum alloy ingots have increased. The operating rates of different - sized recycled - aluminum alloy enterprises and primary - aluminum alloy enterprises have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum has decreased, and the prices of alumina in different regions have mostly decreased. The import loss, basis, and monthly spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the imports and exports of electrolytic aluminum changed. The operating rates of downstream aluminum industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories of electrolytic aluminum have decreased [18].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.27% to 3439.00 yuan/ton as of September 25 [1] Industry Summary - As of the week ending September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% week-on-week. The weekly asphalt production reached 701,000 tons, up 15.5% from the previous week [2] - The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons for the week ending September 23, reflecting a 9.0% increase week-on-week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the warehouse receipts for petroleum asphalt futures were 18,940 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the factory warehouse receipts decreased by 2,140 tons to 37,040 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures noted that the daily operating load of asphalt in China was 45.03% as of September 24, a decrease of 3.80% from the previous Wednesday. The demand side shows weak characteristics, with many road construction projects experiencing delays, leading to a slow consumption pace of asphalt. Overall demand remains weak, with downstream users and traders adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, primarily purchasing as needed. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are influencing asphalt futures prices [3] - Jianxin Futures indicated that expectations of a shift to residual oil production by Haishi Chemical and some refineries' plans to reduce output may cut supply. However, the asphalt production plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Chemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical are being implemented, alongside stable operations at Jin Cheng Chemical and Dongming Chemical. This is expected to lead to a continued increase in the operating load of asphalt facilities. Demand remains stable, with northern and central markets benefiting from favorable weather and project acceleration, while southern regions are affected by typhoon weather [3]

| 锌 ： | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 现货升贴水 | 上海锌锭价格 | 天津锌锭价格 | 广东锌锭价格 | 锌社会库存 | 沪锌交易所库存 | | 2025/09/18 | -50 | 22010 | 21980 | 22000 | 14.78 | 87032 | | 2025/09/19 | -50 | 21990 | 21980 | 21980 | 14.78 | 99315 | | 2025/09/22 | -50 | 21950 | 21950 | 21950 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 2025/09/23 | -50 | 21880 | 21880 | 21880 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 2025/09/24 | -50 | 21820 | 21830 | 21830 | 14.61 | 99315 | | 变化 | 0 | -60 | -50 | -50 | 0.00 | 0 | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international gold prices reaching a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce and silver prices nearing $44 per ounce has sparked discussions about a potential new bull market in commodities [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver behind the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid policy adjustments [3] - The overall commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with international oil prices steadily rising and industrial metal prices rebounding from previous lows [3][4] - The fundamental price fluctuations in commodities are rooted in the dynamic balance of supply and demand, influenced by global supply chain restructuring and extreme weather conditions [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the supply side, insufficient investment in the mining and energy sectors over the past few years has limited capacity release, leading to structural supply gaps [4] - For instance, major copper mining companies are expected to cover only 3% of the demand growth from 2023 to 2024, while demand from sectors like renewable energy is growing at 8%-10% [4] - Demand is bolstered by various national "new infrastructure" and "energy transition" plans, particularly in China and Europe, which are driving the need for industrial commodities [6] Group 3: Policy and Monetary Environment - Global consensus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, significantly impacting industrial commodity demand [6] - The U.S. plans to invest $369 billion in clean energy over the next decade, creating long-term demand for commodities [6] - The end of the interest rate hike cycle by major central banks and expectations of future rate cuts are contributing to a weaker dollar, which enhances the relative value of commodities [7] Group 4: Short-term Catalysts - Geopolitical tensions and inventory cycle changes can amplify commodity price volatility, acting as catalysts for a bull market [9] - Current geopolitical issues, such as tensions in the Middle East, have affected oil transport safety, leading to oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel [9] - Low inventory levels across major commodities, including a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, suggest that any marginal improvement in demand could lead to a price surge [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the commodity sector should focus on understanding cyclical changes and leverage tools like futures and options to hedge against price volatility [11] - Emphasizing the importance of digital transformation in risk management, companies can enhance decision-making accuracy and operational efficiency through integrated solutions [13][14]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-24 地缘再次扰动油价，化⼯超跌有反弹需 求 在北约表示将对俄罗斯侵犯其领空的行为做出"有力"回应后，局势 进一步升级，加剧了对于俄罗斯原油供应的担忧。北约表示，将利用包括 军事在内的一切选项来保护自己。美国国务卿重申了美国对北约组织的承 诺。与此同时，俄罗斯政府正考虑对一些公司实施柴油出口禁令，原因是 乌克兰无人机对该国石油精炼厂发起了一系列攻击。北约的表态让市场重 新关注到俄乌地缘对油价的影响，俄罗斯的成品油出口真实发生了减量。 板块逻辑： 化工贸易数据公布。大部分品种进口同比下滑，而甲醇的进口同比增 长了44%，PX进口同比增16%，纯苯进口同比也增长8.4%；出口方面表现亮 眼的品种是PVC、PE、PP和苯乙烯。聚酯链中短纤8月出口接近5月创下的 出口记录，瓶片出口降至6个月低点。贸易数据对价格的影响很可能已经 反映到盘面上，化工链条估值近期略有压缩，原油反弹可能引发产业链的 补库需求，化工品价格近期将企稳。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差快速下行 高硫燃油：地缘扰动驱动燃油期价大涨 ...