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广发期货《有色》日报-20250704
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 08:50
The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].
国新国证期货早报-20250704
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 3, A - share market had a positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year, while trading volume decreased compared to the previous day [1]. - The weighted indices of coke and coking coal showed strength on July 3, with their prices rising [2][3]. - The supply - demand structures of coke and coking coal futures have improved, but there are still factors such as weak willingness of downstream steel mills to over - replenish and slow recovery of domestic mine production [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed different trends influenced by US sugar prices, spot prices, and monsoon rainfall in India [4]. - Shanghai rubber futures declined due to the drop in tire factory operating rates and weak tire replacement demand data [5]. - Palm oil prices reached a new high in weeks on July 3, with expected changes in Malaysia's inventory, production, and export volume in June [6]. - The international soybean market has limited upside space, and domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, with the focus on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. - The supply of live hogs is currently lower than expected, but there are risks of lagging production capacity and post - poned supply pressure in the far - month contracts [8]. - Shanghai copper prices lack further upward momentum, and the market needs to focus on macro - economic data and supply - demand situations [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures may be affected by the US - Vietnam trade framework agreement [9]. - Iron ore futures showed a volatile upward trend on July 3, with overseas shipments and domestic arrivals decreasing, and the market sentiment boosted by relevant news [9]. - Asphalt futures showed a volatile upward trend, but high - temperature and rainy seasons have hindered demand, so prices are expected to be volatile [9][10]. - Log futures need to focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range and 07 spot delivery information, and the spot market has weak demand [10]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - side policies and market sentiment [10]. - Alumina futures may be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the long term, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mine - end news [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90% to 2164.09. The trading volume of the two markets was 1309.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968.07 on July 3, up 24.38 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 3, the weighted index of coke closed at 1451.9, up 30.6 from the previous day [2]. - On July 3, the weighted index of coking coal closed at 871.2 yuan, up 34.7 from the previous day [3]. - After the fourth - round price adjustment of coke, the supply - demand structure has improved, but downstream steel mills are not very willing to over - replenish [4]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slowly, and the total inventory is expected to continue to decline, with the supply - demand pattern improving [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected sufficient supply in Thailand and India, US sugar prices fluctuated downward on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures did not follow the decline on Thursday and showed a slight increase [4]. - US sugar prices rebounded at night, boosting Zhengzhou sugar futures to rise [4]. - India's monsoon rainfall in July may be "above normal", which is beneficial to agricultural production [4]. Shanghai Rubber - Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week and weak tire replacement demand data in June, Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday [5]. - The operating rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both on a weekly and annual basis [5]. Palm Oil - On July 3, palm oil prices jumped and then fluctuated upward, reaching a new high in weeks, with a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [6]. - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June will decrease by 0.24% compared to May, production will decrease by 4.04%, and exports will increase by 4.16% [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 3, the international CBOT November soybean futures closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 0.05%. The market's upside space is limited [7]. - Domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, and the focus is on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. Live Hogs - On July 3, live hog futures rose slightly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14370 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [8]. - The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has decreased in the short term, but there are risks of increasing supply in the future and weak terminal demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - US non - farm payrolls in June were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate met expectations, which boosted the US dollar [8]. - LME copper inventory and domestic social inventory have increased slightly, and copper prices lack upward momentum [8]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13780 yuan per ton on Thursday night [9]. - The base price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased, and inventory decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. - The US - Vietnam trade framework agreement may boost textile exports in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On July 3, the main contract of iron ore futures rose 2.45% to 733 yuan [9]. - Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals of iron ore have decreased, and steel mills' profits are good, with iron - making output increasing slightly [9]. Asphalt - On July 3, the main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan [9]. - Asphalt production has increased, but shipments have decreased, and high - temperature and rainy seasons have affected demand [9][10]. Logs - On July 3, log futures opened at 793, with a closing price of 792.5 and an increase of 625 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the 790 - 800 pressure range [10]. - The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and port inventory increased slightly, with weak demand [10]. Steel - On July 3, the prices of rb2510 and hc2510 were 3076 yuan/ton and 3208 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - The steel market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and short - term steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [10]. Alumina - On July 3, the price of ao2509 was 3026 yuan/ton [11]. - In the short term, alumina futures are strong due to market sentiment, but in the long term, prices may face downward pressure [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 3, the price of al2508 was 20680 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11].
市场投机情绪放缓,钢价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]
聚烯烃、苯乙烯:期价下跌,供需宽松成本支撑不足
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 18:08
Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin and styrene futures markets are experiencing weak fluctuations, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand trends [1] Polyolefin Market Summary - Polyolefin futures are showing a weak downward trend, with LLDPE09 contract closing at 7249 CNY/ton, down 0.51%, and PP09 contract at 7044 CNY/ton, down 0.68% [1] - The domestic LLDPE market price ranges from 7200 to 7750 CNY/ton, while PP market prices in different regions are 7020-7150 CNY/ton in North China, 7050-7200 CNY/ton in East China, and 7080-7220 CNY/ton in South China [1] - Supply is tightening due to increased maintenance, with PE operating rate at 72.45%, down 7.32% week-on-week, and PP operating rate at 79.26%, down 2.52% week-on-week [1] - Demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with varying operating rates across industries [1] - Inventory levels show an increase in oil inventory to 755,000 tons, up 35,000 tons week-on-week, while PE trade inventory decreased by 14,750 tons and PP social trade inventory decreased by 3,400 tons [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production, negatively impacting oil prices, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions within specified price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1] Styrene Market Summary - Styrene futures are also experiencing weak fluctuations, with EB08 contract closing at 7275 CNY/ton, down 0.42%, and an increase in open interest by 6,038 contracts [1] - Spot prices for styrene are declining, with East China market at 7675 CNY/ton and South China market at 7775 CNY/ton [1] - Supply is expected to recover as facilities restart, with a weekly operating rate of 80.29%, up 1.39% week-on-week [1] - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with slight adjustments in operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [1] - Inventory levels for styrene at East China ports reached 90,500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons, and an estimated 30,000 tons scheduled for arrival next week [1] - The market logic indicates a supply recovery with general downstream demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance that pressures prices [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions on price rallies, with specific support and resistance levels for the main futures contracts [1]
交运行业25Q2业绩前瞻:内需持续改善,海外受多因素扰动
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 10:56
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand continues to improve while overseas factors are causing disturbances [1][2] - In the aviation sector, the second quarter shows improved performance due to high passenger load factors and a significant drop in oil prices [1] - The express delivery sector is experiencing double-digit growth in volume, but intense price competition is affecting profitability [3][11] - The shipping industry is facing volatility in freight rates due to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts [4][5][10] Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - In Q2 2025, the cumulative ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines shows growth compared to the same period in 2024, with increases of 5% to 12% [1] - The average oil price for aviation kerosene in Q2 2025 is 5475 RMB/ton, down 9% from Q1 and down 17% year-on-year [1] - Passenger throughput at major airports like Shanghai and Guangzhou has recovered to 109% and 115% of 2019 levels, respectively [2] Express Delivery - The express delivery volume reached 787.7 billion pieces in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3] - The industry revenue for express delivery in the same period was 592.46 billion RMB, up 10.3% year-on-year [3] - Price competition has intensified, particularly affecting franchise express companies, while leading companies like SF Express continue to show robust growth [11] Shipping - In Q2 2025, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates averaged 42,000 USD/day, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) dropped to 1156 points, down 20% year-on-year, while the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) fell to 1685 points, down 36% year-on-year [5] - The dry bulk shipping market remains weak, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) at 1465 points, down 21% year-on-year [5] Cross-Border Logistics - The average air freight rate index for outbound shipments from Shanghai in Q2 2025 is 4479 points, down 5% year-on-year [8] - The coal import volume at Ganqimaodu port was 6.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [6] High Dividend Stocks - The report suggests that the declining yield on ten-year government bonds will benefit dividend-paying stocks [12] - Recommendations include logistics and highway companies, as well as port and railway stocks [12]
美棉实播面积高于预期,供应利好或难显现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 05:46
Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]
黑色建材日报:宏观情绪好转,钢价震荡运行-20250701
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:33
黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转,钢价震荡运行 钢材:宏观情绪好转,钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨,热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨,期货盘面成交量放大,现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱,部分地区钢厂挺价,昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑:综合来看,钢材即将进入传统消费淡季,目前产量小幅上升,库存小幅去库,整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面,现货市场成交一般,但库存持续小幅去库,对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局,国内 制造业发展相对乐观,需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下,出口钢材韧性较强,近期中美会谈取得一定成 果,宏观情绪出现好转,目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况,以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿:市场情绪趋稳,矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面,进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般,报价多随行就市,市场交投情绪一般,钢厂采购多以按 ...
期货午评:黑色系及广期所品种领跌 工业硅、玻璃、焦煤大跌4%
news flash· 2025-07-01 03:33
涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场!点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权!>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫,商品大面积下挫;黑色系及广期所品种领跌,工业硅大跌4%,玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%,纯碱大跌3%,多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...
6月制造业PMI小幅回升至49.7%
First Capital Securities· 2025-07-01 03:19
Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]
PX:供需偏紧但油价支撑有限 短期PX维持震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-01 02:08
Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased slightly to 83.8% (-1.8%) while Asian PX operating rates fell to 73% (-1.3%) [2] - Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating capacity to 3.6 million tons, leading to PTA operating rates dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) [2] Market Outlook - Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the likelihood of escalation remains low, with limited support for oil prices from OPEC+ expected to increase production in August [3] - Domestic PX facilities are anticipated to undergo maintenance in July, while downstream PTA and polyester operating rates are relatively high, alongside new PTA production expected in Q3, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for PX [3] - PXN is recovering to around $300/ton, which may lead to delays in maintenance plans for some facilities, but weak terminal demand and limited oil price support may restrict PX rebound potential [3] - Short-term PX price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-6900, with caution advised near the upper boundary [3] Pricing and Cost - On June 30, Asian PX prices increased by $6/ton to $874/ton, equivalent to 7211 RMB/ton, while PXN was around $301/ton [1] - PX prices remained under pressure from raw material trends, with the market showing a relatively strong trading atmosphere despite some fluctuations [1]