银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

| TERRET | 日博策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 三汤 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 頁金 | 短期高位区间震荡,但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 白银 | - (2) | | 刚果(金)铜矿供应存在扰动,加剧市场对铜矿供应短缺担忧, | 震荡 | 第四 | 但宏观对铜价提振有限，短期价格震荡运行。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 票汤 | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | | | | | 几内 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月23日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265400 | 268400 | -3000 | -1.12% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 750 | 750 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 265900 | 268900 | -3000 | -1.12% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -107.00 | -35.15 | -71.85 | -204.41% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -8699.22 | -11287.60 | 2588.38 | 22.93% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.16 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and mid - term investors should watch for band - buying opportunities [1][2] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, with the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [3] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can short at high prices [5][6] - For black commodities, negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [7] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to ample supply [8] - Iron ore 2509 may oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - WTI crude oil may oscillate between $55 and $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber may oscillate, with an overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [13][14] - Soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: In the current time frame, it is the season for US soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and export. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the new South American soybean crop is likely to be a bumper harvest. The USDA May 2025 report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of imported South American soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] 3.2 Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2830 yuan/ton (- 20), 2930 yuan/ton (- 10), and 2890 yuan/ton (+ 20) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, China and the US have reached a phased trade agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Internationally, US soybean prices have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the producing areas. Domestically, soybean supply is gradually recovering, oil mill operating rates are increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. As downstream enterprises build safety stocks, they will switch to a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment model. Oil mill soybean inventories have risen to a high level, and the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation is slow in the short term [1] 3.3 Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2195 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region, it is 2414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/content 680 - 720) and Bayuquan (content 680 - 730/15% moisture) are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Analysis**: Externally, the China - US joint statement on tariff reduction has led to expectations of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term prices emotionally but has limited negative impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has raised US corn production and ending stocks, which is negative for US corn futures. Domestically, as the weather warms and the planting season approaches, the remaining grain in the producing areas has basically been sold. The north - south ports have started the de - stocking process, reducing short - term supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises, low breeding profits leading to on - demand procurement by breeding enterprises, and low operating rates of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses. Under the influence of the easing of China - US relations and the news of policy grain release, futures prices have declined periodically [1][2] 3.4 Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78630 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the gradual easing of tariff confrontations is conducive to a positive outlook for the commodity market, in line with the international background and the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle in 2025. Domestically, continuous policy support from the central bank, the CSRC, and the finance department has boosted market sentiment. However, raw material shocks are intensifying, and the mining problem has not been completely resolved. With the rapid decline of domestic copper inventories, the game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified, complicating market analysis [3] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63000 yuan/ton (- 300), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60850 yuan/ton (- 450). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2150 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] - **Market Analysis**: Fundamentally, the prices of various ores in the cost side have dropped significantly. Although the production cost of lithium carbonate has decreased, the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output remains high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further increase, and the supply of low - cost lithium salt will increase, potentially suppressing market prices. In terms of demand, the production of cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily. The terminal consumer market has potential due to the launch of new technology models and policy incentives, but it is not strong enough to drive prices up. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has continued to accumulate. As of May 16, the weekly inventory is 131920 (+ 351) physical tons, including 56522 (+ 1670) physical tons in smelters, 41428 (- 728) physical tons in downstream enterprises, and 33970 (- 591) physical tons in other sectors. The monthly inventory in April is 96202 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 51% and a month - on - month increase of 7%, with downstream inventory at 45169 (+ 5876) physical tons and smelter inventory at 51033 (+ 256) physical tons. Overall, due to the weakening cost support and macro - disturbances, both spot and futures prices have declined, and the subsequent focus is on the 60,000 yuan/ton integer support level [5] 3.6 Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan/ton, the operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%, the social inventory of rebar is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in rebar steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term outlook, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policy support for the real estate industry is helping it to stabilize. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices have oscillated weakly this week. The cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and steel mill inventories of steel are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the fundamentals are also improving, showing a situation of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [7] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the inventory of imported coking coal at ports is 337.38 million tons; and the inventory of coke at ports is 246.10 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. Although there are some disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall volume remains high. In terms of demand, steel mills are reducing production, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory, independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8] 3.8 Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.1, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 765 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. On the supply side, Australian shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly rush, while Brazilian shipments have continued to increase, and the global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in arrival pressure. On the demand side, the domestic steel mill's hot metal production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the resumption of blast furnaces has led to a 2.46 - million - ton increase in the daily consumption of imported ore. However, steel mills are still cautious in raw material procurement and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Overseas demand is divided, with increased production in Indian steel mills supporting some demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric arc furnaces is strengthening, reducing the dependence on iron ore. In addition, the repeated adjustment of US tariff policies has intensified the volatility of global commodity prices, and market concerns about the trade war have limited the upward space for iron ore prices [9] 3.9 Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of increased supply, supporting oil prices. However, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by institutions has led to continued oscillation in crude oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside of oil prices is restricted. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. In the long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift downward, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel and may oscillate around this level. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years. The escalation of the US trade war and the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration have raised concerns about global demand. The repeated delays in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations have increased uncertainty [10] 3.10 Rubber - **Market Analysis**: Attention should be paid to overseas orders and domestic demand. The limited improvement in the fundamentals and the repeated situation after the positive news of the easing of the China - US trade war have restricted the rebound of rubber prices, which are mainly in a weak oscillation. Fundamentally, the tapping of domestic whole - latex has started, with 70% of the areas in Yunnan tapped and the supply of glue in Hainan increasing. In Southeast Asian producing areas, the tapping in northeastern Thailand has started, and the southern part will start tapping after May, resulting in an overall loose supply. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. Market speculation about the trade war and other macro - narratives, as well as the possible US automobile tariff, may seriously suppress global rubber demand, and rubber prices are generally weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11][12] 3.11 PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 77.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 77.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.87%. In terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of May 15, the PVC social inventory (47 samples) decreased by 3.07% week - on - week to 64.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 58.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.84%, and the inventory in South China was 5.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.09%. On May 21, the futures price rebounded. Previously, affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC futures price rebounded significantly, but there has been no obvious improvement in the fundamentals, and the upward space may be limited, with the futures price oscillating at a low level [13] 3.12 Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1421.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1450 yuan/ton, 1500 yuan/ton, and 1400 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [15] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.47%. The soda ash production was 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 million tons, a decline of 8.52%. The scheduled maintenance has led to a decrease in supply. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 171.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 million tons, a decline of 0.63%, and the enterprise inventory has not fluctuated much. It is understood that the social inventory is on a downward trend, with a decline of more than 1 million tons and a total of more than 36 million tons. The demand is average, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for low - priced goods on a rigid - demand basis but still resist high - priced goods. Overall, due to the combination of plant maintenance and the realization of new production capacity, the futures market is expected to continue to oscillate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [15]