Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

据美国《国会山报》报道，特朗普在椭圆形办公室对记者说，"145%是非常高的。不会有那么高的……它将大幅下降，但不会是零。"特朗普还表 示，"我们会表现得很友好。他们（中国）会很友好，我们看看会发生什么。"如果两国能达成协议，关税将下降，这表明他可能会在市场波动中放弃对中国 的强硬立场。 据《卫报》报道，特朗普的言论是对美国财长贝森特22日早些时候言论的回应。贝森特表示，高关税是不可持续的，他预计世界两大经济体之间的贸易 战将"降级"。 SHMET 网讯：据中新网综合报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间22日表示，将"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税。 不过，特朗普避免证实他是否也认为与中国的局势不可持续。白宫记者会上，特朗普对股市上涨表示认可。但在被多次追问如何评价贝森特的言论时， 他一再顾左右而言他，用"我们与中国关系很好""我们有他们想要的东西"一类的口水话，敷衍搪塞记者。 周二晚些时候，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳-莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）也对贝森特与中国的谈判持积极态度，他们试图向紧张的金融市场和投资者保证，与中 国的谈判即将取得进展。但他们都没有表示谈判已经开始。 莱维特在新闻发布会上说，特朗普希望人们知 ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨，较上一交易涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3500 元/吨（70）、天津 3860 元/吨（160）、 日照 3580 元/吨（100）、东莞 3480 元/吨（210）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决，影响中美大豆贸易。 （2）国际大豆：美豆开启播种，进度超过预期。巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。 加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：巴西大豆逐渐到港，油厂开机率回升，豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配，豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏强。 现货信息：东北 ...

对贸易前景的乐观预期升温，美股昨夜实现大反弹。 隔夜，美股市场风格大逆转，创下4月9日以来最大单日涨幅，三大指数集体收涨，金价则从历史高位跳 水逾3%。 据媒体报道，白宫正在与日本和印度敲定"框架协议"，以避免大规模关税的实施。但报道同时援引知情 人士观点表示，这些协议很可能只是未来协议的广泛"框架"或"备忘录"，要达成最终的贸易协议可能仍 需数月。 该人士评价称： 这不是第一次有关贸易协议的乐观消息传出。 据媒体报道，约在10天前（4月9日宣布关税政策后不久），美国财政部长贝森特就曾向华尔街高管们表 示，在与印度、日本、韩国和澳大利亚等主要贸易伙伴的贸易协议谈判方面取得了"重大进展"。 这些乐观言论让投资者看到了希望，但直到本周一，贝森特提到的协议并没有传出任何进展，市场预期 落空，不确定性削弱市场对美元资产的信心，导致美股当日"自由落体式"暴跌，道琼斯指数一度重挫 1200点。 根据知情人士向媒体透露，此前日本似乎已接近达成协议，但最终也是没有任何实质性进展。有投资者 向媒体表示，他从日本贸易官员处得知，白宫一直在修改确切的条款。 关税政策的"反复不定"似乎已经让华尔街失去了信心，而令人担忧的是，模糊、不 ...

当地时间4月22日，总台记者获悉，美国代表美国汽车行业的六个组织在致特朗普政府官员的一封 信中敦促特朗普政府不要征收将于5月3日生效的25%汽车零部件关税，称可能会危及美国汽车生产。信 中指出，许多汽车供应商已经"陷入困境"，无力承担额外的成本上涨，从而导致更广泛的行业问题。 包括美国经济学家在内的多国人士表示，美国关税政策只会产生负面影响。 报告显示，2025年发达经济体增速预计为1.4%，新兴市场和发展中经济体增速为3.7%，均较1月预 测值下调0.5个百分点。其中，美国经济增速将放缓至1.8%，较1月预测值低0.9个百分点，在发达经济 体中下调幅度最大。政策不确定性加剧、贸易紧张局势以及需求势头减弱是下调美国经济增长预期的主 要原因。 欧盟智库布鲁盖尔研究所近日发布美国关税政策对欧盟经济影响的初步评估报告。报告指出，美国 政府目前推行的关税政策对基于规则的全球贸易体系构成了深刻挑战，标志着数十年来多边贸易自由化 进程的一次巨大转变。报告对欧盟与美国近年来的贸易关系进行分析并指出，如果美欧无法达成协议， 美国受到的冲击将大于欧盟。欧盟可以通过再分配政策来缓冲对受影响最严重群体的冲击。 巴西总统卢拉22日在 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了 ...

尽管全球贸易战动摇了美元的避风港地位，并导致美元创下至少二十年来最差的年度开局，但一位顶级 预测师表示，本季度美元的跌势可能会有所缓解。 法国农业信贷银行（Credit Agricole）首席外汇策略师瓦伦丁-马里诺夫（Valentin Marinov）表示，关税 引发的美国资产轮动出局仍是今年的主要下行风险。根据彭博社的一项排名，马里诺夫是第一季度主要 货币最准确的预测者。 不过，在马里诺夫看来，特朗普暂停部分征税的举措将有助于平息市场对美国经济增长的担忧，并减缓 资本从美国市场的外流，从而提振美元。除此之外，在他看来，随着贸易摩擦的持续，其他经济体的损 失会更大。 他说："在贸易战期间，欧元区和日本等出口驱动型经济体的表现应该比美国差，预计这将降低欧元和 日元相对于美元的吸引力。我们还认为，对脱离美元的储备多样化和去美元化的担忧被过分夸大了。" 彭博美元现货指数（Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index）目前接近六个月低点，2025年下跌了6.7%，这是该指 数自2005年推出以来最糟糕的开局。尽管如此，马里诺夫仍坚持他的预测，即到今年年中，美元将从目 前的水平走强。 他认为，美元兑日元汇率 ...

原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 2.15% 。欧佩克在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计 划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止 4 月 17 日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量 481 座，比前周增加 1 座；比 去年同期减少 30 座。短期继续看跌油价，但同时关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅波动，商贸零售板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.12 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.07% ， IF2505 下跌 0.12% ， IC2505 下跌 0.34% ， IM2505 上涨 0.01% 。资金方面， 4 月 21 日融资余额增 加 57.27 亿元至 17984.42 亿元。关税对市场影响程度有所下降，不过中美双方的关税争端仍在不断的交涉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term rebound [15] - **Gold**: Short - term market volatility increases, and the risk of correction after a rapid rise increases [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Fed officials' attitude change repairs short - term market sentiment, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [20] - **Stock Index Futures**: Wait for the Politburo meeting in April to set the future policy direction [25] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: After a sharp short - term decline, market sentiment is released. The near - month contract has weak performance in delivery games, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [27] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices remain volatile for the time being. Soybean meal spot is strong in the short term but is expected to decline gradually in May [31] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [34] - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of the external market in Q2 2025. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the Brazilian crushing production [39] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Long the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term. The 5 - 7 spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities [42] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious with light positions and pay attention to spot rebound hedging opportunities [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: Pay attention to the PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spread opportunities [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Partially stop profit on previous short positions. Do not go long on the left side. Consider going long on the right side after clear signals appear [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Adopt a bearish approach and pay attention to shorting opportunities at the upper edge of the range [51] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. Adopt a band - trading strategy and pay attention to the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage strategy [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Hold previous long positions. Investors without positions should wait and see and pay attention to position management [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Wait and see in the short term. Hold previous long positions and wait for high - selling opportunities. Hold the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Pay attention to the mid - line rebound shorting opportunities near the moving average. Adopt the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage strategy in the mid - line [67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [71] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: The futures price is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the implementation of the industry's joint production reduction [77] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The rebound of caustic soda spot weakens, and the futures price falls. Pay attention to macro - impacts [79] - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The short - term market is dominated by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [81] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on commodity demand and domestic stimulus policies [82] - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: CEA prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [85] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87] 2. Core Views - Trump changed his stance on firing Powell in advance, hoping that the Fed would cut interest rates quickly. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded [14]. - Spot gold prices fell after rising to $3500. Market speculative fever cooled down. Trump's statement of not firing Powell led to a rebound in overseas market risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. In the Chinese stock market, on April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the market rose slightly with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [3]. - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market was sensitive to overseas trade risks and was in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality [4]. - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. The polysilicon contract valuation is low, and positive spread opportunities can be关注 [5]. - US API crude oil inventory data affected the market, and oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the US economy is in good shape, but there are concerns about corporate investment and consumer spending [12]. - The US, Ukraine, and European allies will hold talks on a peace plan. Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell and hopes for faster interest - rate cuts. Market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar index rebounded [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said the cryptocurrency industry needs clear regulatory policies. Spot gold prices fell after reaching a high. The end of the market driven by end - of - the - world options and Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. US officials signaled a relaxation of tariff policies, and Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell. Market sentiment improved in the short term, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple regions in China are planning to introduce a new round of stimulus policies. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. On April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is weak. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but further increases are difficult. The supply of coke is relatively high, and inventories are decreasing. The coking coal market is under pressure, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ADM will close a soybean processing plant in South Carolina. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of April were 9423 million tons. The domestic soybean meal spot is in short supply, and futures prices remain volatile [28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20 increased by 3.64% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of April 19 was 92.5%. The oil market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India plans to increase sugarcane production by 7% in the next three years. Pakistan's sugar exports in the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season increased significantly. A sugar factory in Guangxi cleared its inventory ahead of schedule. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in Q2 2025 [35][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable. Due to high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the market is in a stalemate. After the export restriction policy was lifted, starch exports increased, and the futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is rising. The average national corn price on April 21 was 2198.33 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [41][42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. India imposed a 12% temporary safeguard tax on flat steel products. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market is in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality. It is recommended to be cautious with light positions [43][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. It is expected that polysilicon production will increase in May, and inventory will decrease. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In March, the export of silicone increased significantly. The price of industrial silicon has fallen below the cash cost line. Some manufacturers plan to reduce production. It is recommended to partially stop profit on previous short positions and wait for clear signals to go long [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine in Inner Mongolia obtained a mining license. Some salt factories are undergoing maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, the decline in ore prices makes it difficult for prices to rebound. Adopt a bearish approach [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A copper mine project in Zambia was approved for mining, and a company in Yingtan plans to expand its recycled copper project. Macro - factors are less negative for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. Consider a band - trading strategy and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April, which decreased. Stainless steel mills are reducing production. The price of nickel is expected to repair its valuation. Hold previous long positions and wait and see for investors without positions [55][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead refineries in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. The supply of lead may decline earlier than demand. Short - term tightness is possible. It is recommended to wait and see and hold previous long positions [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc - mining companies' production in Q1 2025 decreased. The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with demand being weaker. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [63][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased. The US announced new sanctions on Iran. Oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news and are expected to range - bound [68][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In March 2025, urea imports decreased, and exports increased. The futures price of urea is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [72][74]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, with some slight decreases. The polyester raw material market is weak. The supply of bottle chips may increase under high - capacity operation. Pay attention to the implementation of industry - wide production reduction [75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On April 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was good. The futures price of caustic soda fell. Pay attention to macro - impacts [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp weakened. The futures price of pulp was affected by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [82]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration released the "China Green Power Certificate Development Report (2024)". The CEA price is under pressure due to a large supply surplus. It is expected to continue to decline in the short term [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On April 22, the soda ash market in Shahe adjusted weakly. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is not strong. Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On April 22, the price of float glass in Shahe was stable. The glass futures price fluctuated slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87].