Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in coking coal futures prices, with the main contract rising over 10% since October 15, driven by supply concerns and reduced production from Mongolia [2] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Significant reduction in Mongolian coal production and customs clearance has raised supply concerns, with domestic coal mine operating rates declining [2] - As of October 22, coal production capacity utilization in China was reported at 85.1%, down 2.3 percentage points week-on-week, with daily raw coal output at 191.0 million tons, a decrease of 5.1 million tons [3] - The supply-demand balance has shifted to tight equilibrium, with prices remaining strong despite recent increases in futures prices [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's trading logic is shifting from expectations of increased coal production and weak steel demand to improved macroeconomic expectations and policy support [4] - Anticipation of further price increases for coking coal and coke, with potential for a third round of price hikes from major coking enterprises [4] - Analysts expect continued upward trends in coking coal prices as downstream steel mills prepare for winter stockpiling [4][5]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 23, the coking coal futures experienced a strong increase, with the main contract JM2601 rising by 5.14% to 1258.5, marking a 12.77% increase from the recent low of 1116.0 [2] - The overall trend in coking coal futures is upward, with all contracts showing varying degrees of increase [2] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Mongolian coal supply is disrupted due to political instability, affecting production and leading to supply concerns [4] - The production of Mongolian coal has significantly declined due to issues such as coal seam stripping, and the quotas for major import traders have been substantially reduced [5] - The number of trucks crossing the Ganqimaodu port has decreased sharply, with daily crossings dropping to 570, nearly half of the average in October [5] Group 3: Domestic Production Issues - Domestic coal production has decreased due to safety inspections and environmental regulations, with a reported capacity utilization rate of 85.1% and a daily output of 191,000 tons [6] - The production in the Ulanqab region has been severely impacted, with 70% of open-pit mines in the area remaining closed due to resource integration and governance issues [7] Group 4: Price Dynamics - The second round of price increases for coke is expected to be approved by major steel mills, with further price hikes anticipated [8] - The demand for coking coal is expected to tighten as downstream steel mills begin winter stockpiling, with iron and steel production remaining high [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for coking coal remains bullish, with recommendations to buy on dips for the JM2601 contract, considering the lag in coke price increases compared to coking coal [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market shows weak supply and demand, with production and demand both affected by the parade. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, which may suppress prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are under pressure. However, the long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The spot prices have declined, and the futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. But there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Iron ore production has decreased due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Thursday, steel production dropped significantly due to the parade, and apparent demand also declined. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, suppressing prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - Suggestion: Unilateral observation, and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate stages [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The fundamentals are poor in the short term, with increased supply and weak terminal demand. Inventory is high, and prices are under pressure. The long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - Suggestion: Short - sell on rallies [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot price of port metallurgical coke has dropped by 30, and the coking coal auction has declined with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. However, there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Suggestion: Close existing short positions gradually and consider batch - layout of medium - term long positions [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore production has dropped to 11290 tons per day due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5].

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the coking coal industry, specifically the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of government policies on production and pricing. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the growth rate of coking coal supply exceeded that of demand, leading to a relaxed supply-demand relationship and downward pressure on prices [1][2] - Coking coal demand improved compared to the previous year, with coke production increasing by 3.1% year-on-year [1][9] - Domestic coking coal supply is expected to meet forecasts, but imports are projected to decrease by over 10 million tons for the year, primarily due to the loss of cost-effectiveness of U.S. coking coal and lower imports from Mongolia and Russia [1][9] Price Trends - Coking coal prices rebounded from 700 RMB/ton to nearly 1,300 RMB/ton after June 2025, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, policy changes, and fundamental supply-demand improvements [1][4] - Prices in the third quarter are expected to stabilize between 780 and 850 RMB/ton, supported by tightening supply expectations and improved fundamentals in the second half of the year [1][10][11] - The market is anticipated to have upward driving factors in the second half, with traditional winter storage demand expected to begin in November [1][11] Impact of Government Policies - The National Energy Administration's coal mine production inspection policy has raised expectations for supply-side reforms, although the actual impact is limited due to most provinces not exceeding capacity utilization significantly [1][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to influence coal supply, with inspections focusing on key coal-producing provinces [6] Seasonal and Structural Factors - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to lead to production restrictions in steel mills and coking enterprises, which will impact demand [7][8] - Short-term inventory adjustments are anticipated, with a rapid recovery in iron production expected post-parade [11][13] Future Outlook - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but attention should be paid to policy changes and international market dynamics that could affect supply-demand relationships [5] - The overall market fundamentals in the second half of 2025 are expected to be better than in the first half, with a potential for price increases driven by winter storage and demand recovery [10][16] Import Dynamics - Coking coal imports in the first half of 2025 decreased by 4 million tons, with an annual forecast of over 10 million tons reduction due to various factors including tariffs and price declines [19][20] - The U.S. has ceased coking coal exports to China, which has limited global market impacts due to structural differences in coal types [21] Production Capacity and Utilization - Current production capacity utilization rates are around 86-87%, down from 90% in May, with expectations that it will not return to May's levels due to policy impacts [26][27] Iron Production Expectations - Iron production is expected to remain high in September, with estimates between 240,000 to 245,000 tons, contingent on export levels and potential government measures to reduce crude steel output [28][29] Additional Important Insights - The market is currently experiencing a phase of inventory accumulation, particularly among steel mills, with strong recovery intentions noted due to improved profitability compared to the previous year [11][12] - The potential for price increases in coking coal and coke is contingent on market conditions and the ability to maintain high production levels [12][16]