Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that coking coal futures have experienced a decline since mid-January, with prices dropping from around 1250 CNY/ton to 1100 CNY/ton, primarily due to a lack of supportive policies and a weak fundamental outlook [2] - The supply side remains stable with domestic coal mines maintaining production before the Spring Festival, and imports of Mongolian coal have increased compared to early January [2][4] - On the demand side, multiple price increase plans for coke have not materialized, leading to deepening losses for coking enterprises, while daily coke production has decreased month-on-month [2][3] Group 2 - As of January 23, the prices of mainstream coal types showed no significant downward trend, with low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi priced at 1660 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton month-on-month [3] - The short-term outlook for coal prices is supported by winter storage demand and expectations of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival, although long-term challenges remain due to weak downstream demand and ample coking coal supply [3][4] - The average daily production of coking coal in China was reported at 770,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while coal imports for the first two weeks of January were 13.25 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [3][4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

Core Viewpoint - After four rounds of price reductions, the coking coal price has initiated its first price increase plan for 2026, with many companies receiving the price increase notice last week [1]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since late December 2025, coking plants have transitioned from profitability to losses, with losses continuing to expand [6]. - The average loss per ton of coke last week was 65 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan week-on-week, while the profit for rebar steel fluctuated around 60 yuan per ton [7]. - Coking profits have been declining due to relatively stable coking coal prices, leading to a situation where coking plants are now operating at a loss [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand for coke are weak, with total inventory accelerating accumulation. Both independent coking plants and steel mills have seen slight declines in production [7]. - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises is 634,500 tons, while steel mill coking enterprises maintain a daily production of 467,200 tons, both remaining stable but below last year's levels [8]. - Steel mills currently hold 6.5 million tons of coke inventory, which is at a relatively low level, with only 12 days of available supply [8]. Group 3: Winter Storage and Market Outlook - Due to the late timing of the Spring Festival this year, winter storage replenishment has been delayed, and most steel mills remain cautious about replenishing inventory due to poor terminal demand expectations [9]. - The independent pricing ability of the coking industry is still weak, with coke prices primarily influenced by coking coal and steel prices [9]. - The outlook for coke prices is limited, as steel mill profits have not improved, and the overall supply of raw materials remains relatively loose, suggesting that coke prices may experience limited upward movement [9].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The supply side of coal mines has little change for the time being, with the coal mine operating rate continuing to rise slightly last week; on the demand side, the steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased, but there are still expectations for winter storage replenishment; the market's expectation for the fifth round of price cuts has cooled down, and there are expectations for coal production cuts. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Supply**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons. In terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [7]. - **Demand**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase. The coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [7]. - **View**: In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. - **Strategy**: Participate in the short-term long side of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts. The support level for coking coal 2605 is around 1,050 - 1,060 yuan/ton, and the support level for coke 2605 is around 1,620 - 1,630 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy regulation, capacity constraints, and the customs clearance volume of imported coal in the later stage [7]. 3.2 Industrial Chain - No specific content provided for analysis 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - No specific content provided for analysis 3.4 Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory (Mines, Ports)**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease [28]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Coking and Steel Enterprises)**: As of January 16, 2026, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [33]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [38]. 3.5 Supply - **Coking Coal Import and Export**: From January to November, the cumulative import of coking coal was 10.48559 million tons, and the export was 112,960 tons [44]. - **Coal Mine Output**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons [48]. - **Coking Output**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Coke Output**: As of January 16, 2026, in terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [58]. 3.6 Demand - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease [66]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of January 16, 2026, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the contradiction of coking coal surplus intensifies, and the winter storage replenishment is more than half completed. The short - term futures market may be adjusted due to surplus intensification, insufficient winter storage drive, and weakening macro - sentiment. However, during the Spring Festival, mine closures and the gradual resumption of hot metal production are expected to improve the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke, and the adjustment space of the futures market is limited. In the long - term, if there is a combination of "domestic supply recovery exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the medium - and long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [2]. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. Investors can consider constructing a short strangle option portfolio strategy [3]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" macro - policy expectations and the "anti - deflation" policy in the opening year will provide bottom support for far - month contracts. The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are beneficial to the overall valuation of commodities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Domestic mine production of coking coal is increasing steadily. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high level year - on - year. Australian coal supply is tight, and the export price is firm. The arrival of coking coal at ports has declined from a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coking enterprises have started a round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. Recently, the spot price of coking coal has rebounded significantly, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly. The maintenance volume of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased, and the hot metal production has decreased slightly, resulting in an intensified coking coal surplus. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to recover, and the decline space of hot metal is limited. It is expected that production will resume steadily at the end of January, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - Construct a short strangle option portfolio strategy for short - term coking coal and coke investment [3]. 3.1.3 Trading Logic - Near - term: The downstream has started winter storage, and the spot price of coking coal has certain support. The hot metal production has basically bottomed out, and the expectation of steel mill复产 is strong, so the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to stabilize [7]. - Long - term: The macro - policy in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year and the "anti - deflation" policy will support far - month contracts. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are positive for commodity valuations [9]. 3.1.4 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Oscillatory operation. - Price range: JM2605 operates in the range of 1120 - 1250; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1800 [10]. 3.1.5 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal washing plants have increased [13]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises, 314 coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises, and 247 steel mills has increased, while the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - Coking supply: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have decreased slightly [15]. - Coking inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports has increased [15]. - Coking coal and coke futures prices: The month - to - month spreads and basis of coking coal and coke have different changes [16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The central bank has introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development. The individual income tax refund policy for home purchases has been extended. The government has promoted fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand. The supply and consumption of five major steel products have increased, and the inventory has decreased. The prices of some coking coal varieties have risen. The supply of Australian coking coal is tight, and the price has risen. Coking enterprises have started the first round of price increases [23][24][25]. - Negative information: The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has increased, the customs clearance pressure of coking coal is high, and there is a rumor of increased customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - Monday: Pay attention to China's GDP growth rate and total GDP in 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025. - Tuesday: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20. - Thursday: Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the US in November [26]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal rebounded to around 1250 and then fell back. The subsequent support levels are 1120 - 1130. The trend of coke follows that of coking coal, and the support level for the 05 contract is 1640 - 1650 [27]. - Month - to - month spread structure: The 5 - 9 spreads of coking coal and coke changed little this week, showing a low - level oscillation. Attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - month reverse arbitrage of coking coal, with the recommended entry range of (- 40, - 50) [31]. - Basis structure: This week, the main futures market of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined, the spot price of coking coal increased, and coke started the first round of price increases, so the 05 basis strengthened [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Coking coal mines' theoretical profit has expanded due to the increase in coking coal spot prices. The immediate coking profit has shrunk because of the increase in coking coal prices for coke production. The profitability of downstream steel mills is expected to shrink with the price increase of coke [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The long - term agreement price of Mongolian coking coal in the first quarter has rebounded by about $7. The port customs clearance enthusiasm is high, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is large. The coal shipping volume has decreased this week, and the price difference between Australian coal and domestic coal has continued to expand. The subsequent arrival pressure of coking coal is expected to ease [41][46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - In January, coking coal supply is expected to increase, with an estimated average weekly production of about 9.5 million tons. The average weekly import volume of coking coal in January is revised up to about 2.55 million tons. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coking coal in January is estimated to be 238,000 tons per day [63]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The four - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the fifth - round price cut is still under negotiation. The immediate coking profit is under pressure, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is average. The average weekly production of coke in January is expected to be about 7.7 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, with an estimated average weekly export volume of 150,000 tons in January. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coke in January is estimated to be 233,000 tons per day [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The hot - metal production is expected to stabilize and rebound after a short - term decline. The average daily hot - metal production in January is estimated to be 227,000 tons per day. The average theoretical hot - metal surplus of coking coal in January is about 11,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 6,000 tons per day [69]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 45 in 2025 to Week 57 in 2026 are estimated, including production, import, total supply, supply converted to theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend, with both trading volume and open interest decreasing. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply showed a slight rebound after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as downstream enterprises started to replenish stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. In general, without the resonance of macro and micro factors, the coking coal market will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The double - coking futures market fluctuated this week, and the open interest and trading volume decreased. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate. The coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6] 3.2 Market Focus - **Industry News**: On January 10, Pakistan launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In 2025, China's steel exports reached 11,901,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on manufacturing enterprises. As of January 13, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 59.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%, mainly driven by housing construction projects [7] - **Fundamental Situation and Main Views**: After the festival, the coking coal supply increased slightly, and the inventory depletion improved. Independent coke enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish coking coal stocks. The overall coke production capacity utilization rate remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and the willingness to raise prices increased [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter stockpiling has started one after another. Cold weather supports coal prices. Macroeconomic policies are positive [10] - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in pig iron production is under pressure, limiting coke demand. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival. Market sentiment has cooled down [10] 3.4 Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the开工 rate of 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week - on - week increase of 3.13%, and the daily average output increased by 342,000 tons to 76,850 tons. The 开工 rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%, and the daily average output increased by 123,000 tons to 27,350 tons. As of the week of January 10, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased after the festival. Overall, the coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival [12] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 226,400 tons to 2,723,700 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 154,700 tons to 3,351,200 tons. The port coking coal inventory decreased by 9,000 tons to 2,989,000 tons. The overall inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks [14] - **Inventory of Independent Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 616,700 tons to 11,328,500 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.75 days to 13.43 days. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 42,600 tons to 818,100 tons. Independent coke enterprises continued to deplete their coke inventory and replenished coking coal inventory for multiple consecutive weeks [17] - **Inventory of Steel Mills**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 44,700 tons to 8,022,000 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.11 days to 12.91 days. The coke inventory increased by 46,000 tons to 6,503,300 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.05 days to 11.97 days. Steel mills slightly replenished their raw material inventory [21] - **Coke Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 16, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke decreased by 120 tons to 63,450 tons; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%, and the daily average output of coke decreased by 160 tons to 46,720 tons. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival [23] - **Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of January 16, China's coke consumption decreased by 680 tons to 102,600 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1,490 tons to 228,010 tons. The decrease in pig iron production hindered the increase in coke consumption [25] - **Profit of Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the average loss per ton of independent coking enterprises was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17%. Under the pressure on coke enterprises' profits, some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices, and coke plants issued price - increase letters in mid - January [27] - **Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated and stabilized, and the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [29] 3.5后市研判 (PART 04) - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the coking coal's fundamental driving force was limited. Funds were cautious, and the open interest decreased. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate [32] - **Coke**: The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. The coke futures market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with some varieties having specific outlooks like "Oscillation with a slight upward trend" for coking coal. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The off - season fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. Steel enterprise复产 in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and the furnace charge price has the expectation of rising from a low level, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory continues to accumulate, there are disturbance expectations on the supply side, and the resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand sides need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2][8] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [3][11] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the ferrosilicon market has both weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [3][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. [3][13] - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking. [3][13] 3.5 Individual Varieties - Steel products: The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. Steel mills still have room for复产, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side. The fundamentals have limited highlights. With steel mill复产 and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will oscillate in a wide range. [8] - Iron ore: The hot metal production decreases month - on - month, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The port inventory is rising, the supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side is supported by hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [8] - Scrap steel: The arrival volume increases slightly, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces reaches a new high. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [10] - Coke: The hot metal production declines, and restocking continues. The cost side has strong support, and the fundamentals continue to improve. The futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [11] - Coking coal: The coking enterprises restock well, and the coal mine inventory decreases. The supply - demand pattern is gradually optimizing, and the futures and spot prices have upward momentum. [12] - Glass: The spot production and sales weaken, and a negative feedback between futures and spot is approaching. The current supply - demand is in surplus, and the price trend depends on whether there is more cold repair before the end of the year. [13] - Soda ash: The warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the spot price oscillates at a low level. The overall supply - demand is in surplus, oscillating in the short term and the price center will decline in the long term. [13] - Manganese silicon: The de - stocking pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the cost support still exists. The market has both weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [17] 3.6 Index Information - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.39%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.63%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.35%. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.38% on the day, increased by 0.06% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.68% in the past month, and increased by 2.21% since the beginning of the year. [102][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Hot - Rolled Steel**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The demand for thread steel increased slightly while production decreased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled steel improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and molten iron increased in the short - term. The overall domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market sentiment was cautious. The plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore plate weakened. Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase. Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level. The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased. There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - **Silicon Iron**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled steel demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, and blast furnaces were gradually restarted [2] - **Downstream and Export**: Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase [3] - **Demand**: Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level [3] - **Market Sentiment and Outlook**: The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - **Price and Production**: The price fluctuated, transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly [4] - **Inventory**: Coke inventory hardly changed [4] - **Supply - Demand and Outlook**: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] Coking Coal - **Supply and Customs Clearance**: The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day [6] - **Transaction and Inventory**: Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly [6] - **Supply - Demand and Outlook**: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Price and Raw Materials**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased [7] - **Inventory and Production**: There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [7] - **Recommendation**: It was recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - **Price and Policy**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong [8] - **Cost Expectation**: The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices [8] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Recommendation**: It was recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ (Predicted to trend upwards with the trend fermenting on the market) [1] - **Silicon Ferros**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market has small supply - demand contradictions, with the market sentiment being cautious, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their prices are likely to fluctuate strongly due to market expectations of coal - related policies [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market has a fragile balance in manganese ore port inventory, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - The silicon ferros market is relatively strong due to policy influence, and demand remains resilient. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market continued to fluctuate narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and molten iron increased in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed. From the downstream industries, real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. The overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remained high in the short term, and port inventory continued to increase. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off - season improved month - on - month, some blast furnaces that had regular maintenance before resumed production, and molten iron production increased from a low level. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased continuously but was still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and the fundamental situation of iron ore was relatively loose [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. The coke transaction price increased sporadically, the coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume will increase next week, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coke futures price is at a premium, but the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,519 trucks. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. The spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the transaction price increased slightly driven by the rising futures price. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly, with the production - end inventory rising sharply. Similar to coke, the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound. The current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level, the steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, the molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7]. Silicon Ferros - The silicon ferros price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increased, and there were certain expectations of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon ferros decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8].