Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes multiple industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the supply and price of various commodities. Market sentiment is complex and volatile, and different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends. [3][4][6] Summary by Directory 01 Oil Products Crude Oil - **Logic**: Geopolitical news dominates market fluctuations, and Trump has postponed energy strikes. - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low, and the export of Russian oil is restricted, leading to a tightening of global crude oil supply. The recovery of shut - down production capacity is uncertain. - **Macro**: The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the macro - sentiment is weak. [3] Fuel Oil - **Logic**: Funds are flowing out, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil has limited follow - up ability despite strong crude oil. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in a tight supply - demand situation, with supply being tight and demand shifting to Asia. It will continue to be strong but may experience a correction. [6][7] LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is short - term support. - **Fundamentals**: The international oil price rebound drives the LPG price up. The supply gap in the Middle East cannot be quickly filled, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. [8] 02 Aromatics - Polyester PTA - **Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical progress, and the downstream load has slightly decreased. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract has risen, the spot basis has strengthened, the PTA load has increased, and the downstream polyester load has decreased. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts. [9][10] 03 Coal Chemical Urea - **Logic**: The sentiment is generally stable, with support, but beware of policy pressure. - **Fundamentals**: The positive overseas sentiment and domestic policy pressure offset each other. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to remain stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The international price is rising, but the domestic - international price transmission is limited. [11] Methanol - **Logic**: There is still geopolitical uncertainty, but short - term import shortages provide support, and it maintains high - level operation. - **Fundamentals**: The MA2605 contract has risen. The price in the port area has rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. The import in April is expected to be low, and the port inventory may further decrease. [12] 04 Salt Chemical Soda Ash - **Logic**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand pressure is high. - **Fundamentals**: The increase in coal prices supports the bottom price, but the supply - demand situation lacks effective support. The inventory is at a high level, and the rebound requires supply - side production cuts. [13] Glass - **Logic**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. - **Fundamentals**: The glass inventory continues to decline, but the market sentiment has cooled. The supply is at a low level, and the price has support at a low level. The improvement in the second - hand housing market may drive the demand for glass. [14][15] Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply - demand side has strong support, but the futures valuation is high. - **Fundamentals**: The manufacturer's inventory pressure is small, and the supply - demand support is strong. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the supply and demand of caustic soda needs to be continuously monitored. [16] 05 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Logic**: Shanghai copper has a slight increase. - **Fundamentals**: The situation in the Middle East is complex, and the market sentiment changes. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the cost of copper is supported. The long - term demand for copper in the new energy transformation is positive. [17] Gold - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The uncertainty of monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East affect the US dollar index. If the US dollar index weakens, it may drive the gold price up. [18] Silver - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations. The silver price has temporarily escaped the low point but still faces uncertainties. [19] Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector The appendix provides daily data monitoring of various commodities, including price changes, basis, spreads, and inventory data, which helps to understand the market trends of different commodities. [21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable under energy shocks, and if market sentiment deteriorates, the risk of recession will rise sharply, leading to a rapid re-evaluation of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Recession Risk Accumulation - Simon White's recession warning model consists of 14 sub-models, requiring at least 40% activation to signal a recession. Currently, only about 20% of the sub-models are activated, including a recently triggered oil price surge indicator, indicating that recession risk remains manageable [4]. - Historical patterns show that once the model readings break above the 20%-30% range, they tend to rise rapidly, reflecting the abrupt nature of recessions in the real economy. The model's reading has increased from just above 20% to 30%, nearing the critical threshold of 40% [4]. - The implied recession probability in the stock and credit markets is around 20%, while copper prices and yield curves suggest a more pessimistic outlook with probabilities of 45%-55% [4]. Group 2: Hard Data Pressure and Policy Constraints - Hard data has already begun to show pressure, with housing data, auto sales, and overall synchronous indicators weakening this year. This situation is described as a "worst-case scenario" [6]. - When hard data weakens first, the effectiveness of policy interventions is significantly reduced, as damage may already be done. Currently, soft data remains stable, but if it begins to weaken, the probability of entering a recession in the next 2-3 months will increase significantly [6]. Group 3: Energy Shock Amplifying Downside Risks - Oil prices are a core variable in the current risk landscape. Despite improvements in energy efficiency, high oil prices could lead to significant demand destruction, potentially tripling the negative impact on GDP [9]. - The current situation is compared to the 1990 recession, where an oil price spike exacerbated the downturn. Early signs of credit deterioration are already visible, echoing the unsettling conditions of that period [9]. Group 4: Market Impact in a Recession Scenario - If a recession occurs, all asset classes will face significant re-pricing. Historically, the median decline in the stock market during recessions since 1960 has been 12%, with declines reaching as high as 45% during the 1973-1974 oil shock [11]. - Bonds may benefit from safe-haven buying, but due to the stagflation nature of the current shock, bond price increases may not match past performance during recessions. Commodities often perform relatively well during commodity price-induced recessions [11]. - The area likely to see the most significant re-pricing will be in the U.S. short-term interest rate market. Although the timing for such trades is not yet ripe, once market sentiment begins to crack, the re-evaluation of rate cut expectations will be swift and potentially exceed pre-conflict levels [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Macro Environment - The market reflects expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the ranking of asset classes indicating that the Nasdaq is perceived to be the most sensitive, followed by gold, copper, 10-year U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar index, 2-year U.S. Treasuries, and federal funds futures [1][1][1]. Geopolitical Developments - Iranian military claims to have launched missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln," although the U.S. has not confirmed any damage to the carrier. Iran has warned the U.S. against entering missile range [1][1][1]. - Reports suggest Iran is skeptical of Trump's push for negotiations, viewing it as another potential deception [1][1][1]. - Israel is rumored to have agreed to mobilize up to 400,000 reservists, with U.S. forces, including the 82nd Airborne Division, being deployed to the Middle East [1][1][1]. - Lockheed Martin plans to quadruple the production of precision strike missiles [1][1][1]. Sector-Specific Insights Artificial Intelligence - SemiAnalysis published an article indicating that the Kyber switch tray will feature a CPC or NPC flying line, exceeding expectations for the value chain; the Rubin Ultra 288 will utilize cable cartridges between two cabinets, further expanding the copper interconnect market [2][2][2]. - NVIDIA is reportedly informing its supply chain to shift towards a comprehensive co-packaged copper cable solution [2][2][2]. - GitHub's LiteLLM, which has 40,000 stars and 97 million downloads, has been compromised on PyPI [2][2][2]. - Robotic technology company Roboteq has secured orders worth $600 million [2][2][2]. Semiconductor Industry - SanDisk is set to acquire 139 million shares of Taiwan's Nanya Technology for $1 billion, representing a 3.9% stake, in exchange for a long-term supply agreement [2][2][2]. - Following the acquisition of Biwei, another domestic storage module manufacturer is expected to sign a storage wafer procurement order worth approximately 7 billion RMB [2][2][2]. - Google published a paper on TurboQuant technology, which can reduce KV cache size by six times [2][2][2]. Shipping Industry - COSCO Shipping has resumed new booking services from the Far East to certain countries in the Middle East, avoiding the Persian Gulf and using inland transport to access ports in the region. This service was previously suspended on March 4 [3][3][3]. - Iran reportedly requests details on crew and cargo for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3][3][3]. Chemical Industry - The President of Indonesia has approved tariffs on coal and nickel exports, with specific rates still under discussion [3][3][3]. - Dow Chemical has doubled the price of polyethylene from $0.15 per pound to $0.30 per pound, effective April 1 [3][3][3]. Satellite Industry - SpaceX plans to submit its IPO prospectus to regulators soon, aiming for a June listing [3][3][3]. - Russia's space agency Bureau 1440 has launched 16 broadband internet satellites into orbit, marking an early operational step for its near-Earth orbit network [3][3][3]. Robotics Industry - Tesla has released a teaser video showcasing various components of its robot project, which aims for an annual production of 10 million units, with land preparation for the project completed [3][3][3]. Military Industry - The domestic unmanned equipment "Atlas" drone swarm combat system has been unveiled [4][4][4]. Hong Kong Market - The market regulatory authority has circulated a notice indicating that the "food delivery war" should come to an end [5][5][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index has decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, reflecting significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals have experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, influenced by inflation fears and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market shows strong upward momentum, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 15.08% from March 9 to March 20, 2026, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper prices were $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged ¥95,470 per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report suggests that copper prices may seek a weak balance between macroeconomic pressures and cost support [30]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to ¥1,023,000 per ton, up 11.44% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the demand for high-end gallium products continues to rise, contributing to a 5.19% price increase for gallium [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index fell to 255.31, down 13.58% over two weeks, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices decreased by 17.35% [45]. - The report indicates that the rare earth sector is facing significant valuation pressure due to slowing demand growth [45]. Energy Metals - As of March 20, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was ¥431,000 per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices averaged ¥149,000 per ton, down 4.03% [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector's growth [54]. Major Events - The report discusses the tightening of gold trading policies by several banks in response to market volatility, which may impact trading dynamics in the precious metals market [69]. - It also notes the recent government policies aimed at resource security and green transformation, which are expected to support the non-ferrous metals industry [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: High oil prices bring continuous pressure, and the overall inventory is high. With the Middle - East conflict, high - oil prices, a rebounding US dollar, and a significant reduction in the Fed's expected interest rate cuts this year, the copper price may continue to adjust this week. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering as the copper price falls. The reference range for the Shanghai Copper 2605 contract is [88000, 98000] [4]. - **Aluminum**: Although high - oil prices create macro - pressure on non - ferrous metals, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are stronger than those of the copper market recently, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return. The threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persists, giving strong support to overseas prices. Domestic demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and terminal support is gradually strengthening. The reference range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2605 contract is [22500, 24500] [4]. - **Alumina**: There is still pressure on alumina supply and demand, but the Middle - East conflict and Guinea's bauxite policy have some impact on market expectations. Attention should be paid to the recent rebound. The reference range for the Alumina 2605 contract is [2800, 3250] [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 13 - 20, 2026, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Color Market dropped from 100630 yuan/ton to 95950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4680 yuan/ton; the average price of aluminum dropped from 25100 yuan/ton to 24030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1070 yuan/ton; the alumina spot price index rose from 2698 yuan/ton to 2752 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The LME copper total inventory increased by 30525 tons to 342350 tons; the LME aluminum total inventory decreased by 15625 tons to 429675 tons; the AO warehouse receipt of alumina increased by 25143 tons to 399103 tons [8]. - **Weekly News**: LME updated a series of lending rules, which will take effect on March 17, 2026; Peru's proposal to shorten the mining concession period may affect investment; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of raw materials in the GCC region; EU's carbon tariff on imported aluminum has led to a sharp drop in January's import volume [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Market**: In January - February 2026, the domestic economy started well, with strong import and export performance and a significant rebound in investment growth. However, the real estate market continued to adjust, and consumption rebounded but remained at a low level. The first - quarter economic "good start" is expected, but the overall situation is "strong supply and weak demand" [12]. - **Overseas Market**: On March 19, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After the meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year significantly cooled, with the expected number of cuts dropping from 1.02 to 0.59 times [19]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: There will be adjustments to domestic refined oil prices on March 23; important economic data such as the euro - zone's March manufacturing PMI and China's January - February industrial enterprise profits will be released this week [20]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures [27]. - **Overseas Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of copper inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, COMEX, and Shanghai bonded areas [33]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From March 13 - 19, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a month - on - month increase of 8.6 percentage points. It is expected to further increase to 83.76% this week. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the copper price decline, with their operating rates steadily rising [35]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: The report shows the historical trends of 6063 aluminum rod inventory and electrolytic aluminum spot inventory [38]. - **Futures Market**: The report shows the historical trends of the positions of alumina futures, options, aluminum futures, and options [41]. - **Overseas Market**: The report shows the historical trend of LME aluminum total inventory [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of March 19, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%. Different sub - industries showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates rising and some remaining stable [46]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of March 19, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 25000 yuan/ton. The price is expected to maintain a weak and narrow - range shock in the short term [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the prices of related raw materials [51]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Futures Market**: Not elaborated in detail in the given content. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of March 19, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, and the operating capacity was 89 million tons, with an operating rate of 75.11%. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased slightly [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2819.19 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 75.4 yuan/ton [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has dropped significantly by 10.49% week-on-week, marking the largest weekly decline in six years, with the current price at $4,492 per ounce [10] - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is at 48.66 for February 2026, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [15] - The cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing in China for January-February 2026 is down by 13.50% [18] Liquidity - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are reported at $6.61 trillion, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in February 2026 is -3.1 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area of commercial housing for January-February 2026 is down by 23.10% [18] - The national average price index for cement has increased by 1.58% week-on-week, with a current operating rate of 46.95% [59] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 24,030 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 4.26% [9] Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently at 3.94, indicating a significant price relationship [3] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 90 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 40 yuan [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2026 is at 45.00%, down by 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,120.61 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.52% [3] Valuation Levels - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.19%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing a PB ratio of 30.19% and 63.67% relative to the CSI 300 [4] - The current PB ratio for the steel sector is 0.49, which is near its historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors, while short-term observations should focus on oil price performance and steel production policies [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the Fed's firm attitude and weakened rate - cut expectations, commodities weakened overall on March 20th, with the vegetable oil sector showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil led the decline under pressure, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. It's recommended to exit long positions in oils and hold short positions in palm oil, and there is also room for decline in soybean oil and rapeseed oil later [2]. - For the two - meal sector, on March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market was worried about the postponement of the US President's visit to China and the subsequent Sino - US economic and trade relations, betting on the rise of long - term double - meals. It's recommended to operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, the Fed's attitude weakened rate - cut expectations, causing overall weakness in commodities and a differentiated trend in the vegetable oil sector. Palm oil led the decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 398 lots; the main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton, down 0.80% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,646 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2,919 lots [2]. (2) Important Information - On March 19th, NYMEX crude oil futures closed down, with the US oil main contract down 0.19% at $96.14/barrel and the Brent oil main contract up 1.18% at $108.65/barrel. Israel said it would suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [2]. - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with a forecast range of 46 - 56 million tons, a downward adjustment of less than 1% from the previous forecast. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers returning home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [2]. - The Abiove said the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be blended into regular diesel to cope with the energy price crisis. The Brazilian Energy Minister called for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [2]. - On March 19th, the CPC reported that La Nina is still ongoing, expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and likely to remain neutral from May to July 2026. El Nino may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [2]. - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons [2]. - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared with February 1 - 15. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with the same period last month [2]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0557 million tons, a weekly increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.49% [2][3]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, the global financial market fluctuated sharply overnight, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and precious metals falling sharply, triggering a liquidity crisis and a strong global recession expectation. US soybean oil was under pressure at high levels. In Malaysia, palm oil markets were closed for Eid al - Fitr, and prices were strong the day before the holiday, but surrounding vegetable oils weakened [3]. - For soybean oil in China, some factories have shut down, and the upcoming end - of - month shutdown wave has some support for the futures market. However, it is still the traditional off - season for demand, and the overseas macro - recession expectation is more negative than the shutdown support [3]. - For palm oil, although the data of lower production in the first half of the month on the production side provided short - term support to the market, with the gradual slowdown of exports and the potential negative impact of increased production after Eid al - Fitr, crude palm oil futures are still under pressure to fall [3]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic vegetable oil market has shown obvious signs of stagnant growth and is still at risk of a corrective decline. In the short term, it will continue to be affected by the Middle East situation and maintain a wide - range volatile adjustment trend. Spot trading in rapeseed oil has been continuously light, and it is difficult for the market to pick up goods, with most oil mills delivering to reserve depots [3]. (4) Trading Strategy - In the single - sided market, exit long positions in oils, hold short positions in palm oil. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a volatile state and have room for decline. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [3]. 2. Two - Meal Market (1) Market Review - On March 20th, domestic double - meals showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 0.43% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 78,358 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2,423 yuan/ton, down 0.82% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,298 lots [3]. (2) Important Information - The NOPA's February soybean crushing volume is expected to reach a record high for the month, with 9 analysts predicting an average of 202.725 million bushels [4]. - Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The risk of rising shipping and insurance costs is increasing, posing a potential threat to the soybean export prospects of Brazil and the US [4]. - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" agricultural trade talk in Paris on the 15th, and China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [4]. - ANEC reported that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 are estimated to be 16.09 million tons, a 2% increase compared with March 2025 [4]. - As of the end of the 11th week of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory was 5.8215 million tons, a decrease of 284,700 tons from the previous week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons from the previous week [4]. (3) Market Logic - Overseas, US soybeans are testing the 20 - day moving average. If they cannot break through effectively, there is a risk of new declines. For soybean meal, although the import cost has slightly decreased, the decline in the futures market is limited due to the end - of - month shutdown wave and the strong spot market. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the range of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [4]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, and the market trading volume has been light, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [4]. (4) Trading Strategy - Operate the near - and long - month contracts of double - meals differently, with short positions in near - month contracts and long positions in long - month contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [4].

铜周报：地缘政治风险增加，铜价重心下移 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 宏观面 鲍威尔发表鹰派言论，交易员预计今年降息概率仅50%。美伊冲突局势波动反复，市场担忧滞胀加息或引发衰退，铜价最低跌至92000元/吨下方。 铜矿 GALAXY FUTURES 3 铜现货市场 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 3月20日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-67.32美元/吨，较上一期的-60.39美元/吨减少6.93美元/吨。港口库存减少到51.2万实物吨，较上一期减少0.66万实物吨。 废铜 受铜价跳水影响贸易商捂货情绪加重，而含税废铜持续收紧也引发价格高企，周内高质量含税废铜（T2）基本与盘面电铜价格持平，购入后对企业利润形成较大冲击，目前废 铜周度贸易商仅为往年同期水平的 50%，企业反馈废铜供应不足态势明显，预计次周国内废铜供应将延续感官紧张，或将进一步延伸至铜冶炼企业。 霍尔木兹海峡若长时间无法解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in Iran has escalated, impacting global energy markets and financial stability, with Brent oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel and significant volatility in various asset classes [1][5][20]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The conflict has led to a substantial increase in Brent oil prices, which have risen to over $110 per barrel, and a 13% daily increase in TTF natural gas prices [1]. - Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility, with gold prices dropping 15% and U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.4%, marking the highest volatility since April 2025 [1][3]. - The market's expectation for the conflict's resolution has shifted from a quick end to a prolonged standoff, with the probability of resolution by March dropping from 78% to 4% [5][7]. Group 2: Asset Class Expectations - Different asset classes reflect varying expectations regarding the conflict and oil prices, indicating both risks and opportunities for investors [7]. - Bond markets are pricing in a pessimistic outlook, while equity markets have not fully accounted for the potential prolonged nature of the conflict and sustained high oil prices [7][21]. - Current expectations suggest that if the conflict does not extend into the third or fourth quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on bonds and gold, as their current pricing appears overly pessimistic [45]. Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Without the Iranian conflict, U.S. inflation is projected to peak at 2.8% in the second quarter, allowing for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [8][10]. - A sustained oil price above $100 per barrel could push inflation expectations higher, complicating the Fed's ability to cut rates [10][11]. - The market anticipates that if oil prices remain high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, with current expectations pushing the timeline for any cuts to September 2027 [21][34]. Group 4: U.S. and Chinese Market Impacts - U.S. equity markets have shown resilience compared to global markets, but there is a potential for a 10% correction if the conflict escalates further [35]. - In China, markets are experiencing divergence, with sectors sensitive to liquidity, such as Hong Kong and A-shares, reacting more negatively to the situation [41][42]. - The ongoing conflict may lead to a decline in external demand and impact sectors like chemicals and transportation, while defensive sectors in A-shares may provide better protection [46].