Group 1: Futures Market Information - The previous day's closing prices of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 7188, 7233, 7280 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 56, - 19 and percentage changes of - 0.79%, - 0.77%, - 0.26% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The previous day's closing prices of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 6926, 6963, 6931 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 54, - 53 and percentage changes of - 0.80%, - 0.77%, - 0.76% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The trading volumes of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 207880, 9760, 66 respectively, and the trading volumes of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 234762, 20649, 871 respectively [2]. - The open interests of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 529473, 38224, 67 respectively, with changes of 9217, - 329, 35. The open interests of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 574719, 71061, 1575 respectively, with changes of 3878, 3796, 524 [2]. - The current spreads of LL (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 45, - 47, 92 respectively, and the current spreads of PP (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 37, 32, 5 respectively [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Information - In the raw material and spot market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the mid - stream spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China were 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Group 3: News - On Thursday (September 18), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.57 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.33 - $64.55 [2]. - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, down $0.51 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.19 - $68.42 [2]. Group 4: Core Views and Strategies - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and part of PetroChina were stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina were stable [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved [2]. - After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemicals. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market declined due to concerns about future demand realization [2]. - In the medium - term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2]

Steel Industry - The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is strengthening, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches, with high demand for plate steel and a low recovery in rebar demand. On the supply side, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to a decrease in overall supply. Plate steel supply remains high, while rebar production has significantly decreased, alleviating supply pressure. Overall, with the arrival of the peak demand season and stricter implementation of industrial policies, the supply-demand contradiction and cost support for steel are expected to gradually strengthen. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to continue a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Iron Ore - The expectations for supply and demand are improving, enhancing price support for iron ore. Steel mills are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in iron ore demand. On the supply side, overseas mine shipments have significantly increased, resulting in a moderate growth in overall supply. Iron ore inventories are stabilizing at low levels, indicating minimal inventory pressure. Overall, with the continuous warming of macro policy expectations and the recovery of downstream demand, the outlook for iron ore supply and demand is expected to continue improving, with prices likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased by 1.9% to 84.7%, with daily raw coal output reaching 1.9 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 44,000 tons. The demand side shows strong rigid support, driven by increased washing plant operating rates and a rebound in iron water production. However, the market is still focused on "anti-involution," and the space for further increases in coal mine operating rates is limited due to strong safety supervision policies. Overall, the coking coal supply-demand structure may be optimized, maintaining a trend of fluctuating strength [2]. Shipping Industry - The European shipping index is currently showing a weak trend. On the spot market, major shipping companies are continuously lowering their quotes, with the average price for a large container around $1,650, indicating a slight discount to the market. The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, with demand entering a low season and a lack of new shipping volume. The average weekly capacity in September has increased by 16% year-on-year, but the scale of empty classes in October is not sufficient to alleviate the oversupply situation. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the index is expected to continue running weakly in the short term [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices have continued to decline. Domestic methanol capacity utilization and output have unexpectedly decreased this week. However, the operating rates of traditional demand products have mostly increased, with significant recoveries in DME and MTBE. The market is expected to maintain a trend of inventory reduction due to pre-holiday stocking and upstream companies actively reducing inventory to avoid accumulation risks during the holiday. Overall, the methanol market is expected to continue a downward trend in the short term, with some support from supply-side reductions and recovering downstream operating rates [4]. Urea - Urea prices have shown a downward trend this week, with capacity utilization and weekly output increasing. The upcoming recovery in production is expected to exceed maintenance, leading to a significant increase in daily output. However, domestic urea demand remains tepid, and the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with companies facing challenges related to inventory and costs. Without policy changes, urea futures prices are likely to continue fluctuating downward in the short term [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Soda ash and glass prices are experiencing a downward trend. The overall supply of soda ash is decreasing slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.53%. The weekly output has dropped by 1.54 million tons. The glass market is stable, but demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual decline in production and sales. The overall supply pressure for soda ash remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly [5]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are showing a weak trend, influenced by the end of the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. and ongoing OPEC+ production increases. However, the inventory of asphalt plants and social stocks continues to decline, which may positively impact prices. The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to drive demand, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions face supply pressures [6][7]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are experiencing a downward trend, with average capacity utilization at 81.9%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased, and demand from downstream aluminum oxide enterprises remains stable. Overall, the caustic soda market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly due to increased supply and limited demand [8]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are declining, with limited demand from downstream sectors. Despite some replenishment activities, the overall purchasing momentum remains insufficient. The supply side is increasing due to more operational facilities, leading to a rise in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward [9]. Polyester - The polyester market is stable, with supply and demand remaining balanced. The operating rates of PTA and downstream polyester production have increased slightly, but overall demand remains below expectations. The inventory levels of PTA are at historical lows, indicating a tight supply situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost movements [10][11]. Nonferrous Metals - The copper market is influenced by the recent Fed rate cut, with domestic supply tightening due to maintenance at smelting plants. The market is closely monitoring consumption patterns leading up to the National Day holiday, with expectations of increased purchasing from large enterprises [14]. Agricultural Products - The oilseed market is under pressure due to high domestic soybean inventories and slow demand recovery. The cotton market is experiencing price pressure from low demand and high import levels, while the sugar market is facing downward pressure from increased production in India and Brazil [18][19]. Rubber - The rubber market is experiencing a weak trend, with increased imports and stable production levels. The demand from processing plants remains strong, but overall market sentiment is affected by macroeconomic factors [22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant information**: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Outer - market changes**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - **Important information**: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - **Relevant information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - **Logic analysis**: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Important information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Relevant information**: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - **Logic analysis**: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important information**: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - **Logic analysis**: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - **Important information**: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading logic**: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - **Important information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - **Trading logic**: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market impact**: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - **Important information**: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - **Trading logic**: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It shows that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm due to supply - demand imbalances. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may impact crop maturity and harvest, and there are various changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Brent 11, WTI 10, and CBOT soybeans are presented. Also, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [1][2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, including the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Brazilian real [1]. 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean - Producing Areas Weather**: From September 21 - 25, the temperature in US soybean - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is uneven. The Midwest has showers, which are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][6]. 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Edible Oil Prices**: Kenanga Research expects edible oil prices, including palm oil, to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in September will rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports will be 219 tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing**: Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production estimate at 1703 million tons, and adjusts the 2025 soybean processing volume to 5850 million tons [8]. - **Soybean and Oilseed Trade**: There are changes in soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil trade volumes in India, the EU, and other regions. Also, Ukraine's rapeseed exports are affected by tariffs [9][10][11]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On September 16, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The soybean meal transaction volume also decreased [14]. - **Inventory and开机率**: As of September 16, the national soybean oil port inventory increased slightly, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.3 Macro - News 3.3.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. There are various economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and housing market indices in the US. Also, OPEC + will hold a meeting to discuss production capacity estimates [16][17]. - **European Economic Data**: The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and industrial output data are presented [17][18]. 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On September 16, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [20]. 3.4 Fund Flows On September 16, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 22.877 billion yuan, including 4.42 billion yuan in commodity futures, 17.337 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 1.045 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [24]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in soda ash inventory since mid-August and the recent price rebound may not indicate a fundamental improvement in the industry, as supply remains excessive and effective destocking has not occurred [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Soda ash factory inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.7975 million tons, down 113,300 tons or 5.93% from the historical peak of 1.9108 million tons [2]. - However, social inventory has increased to 540,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from 450,000 tons in early August, indicating a transfer of inventory rather than effective destocking [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There is a slight improvement in downstream demand as glass prices strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, leading to an increase in glass production [3]. - Daily production of float glass rose to 160,175 tons, up 600 tons from August, while photovoltaic glass production also increased by 600 tons to 88,780 tons [3]. - Despite the overall increase in glass production, light soda ash inventory has been accumulating, indicating limited improvement in its downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Export Considerations - Soda ash exports have significantly increased, with a total of 1.154 million tons exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 128.38% [4]. - However, rising domestic prices may hinder export growth, as the export price in July was approximately 1,260 yuan per ton, which could lead to diminished export profits and exacerbate domestic oversupply [4]. Group 4: Production and Supply Outlook - The summer maintenance period for soda ash plants is ending, leading to a rise in operating rates and production levels, with a record output of 761,100 tons reported [5]. - The weekly demand for heavy soda ash from glass production is estimated at 348,500 tons, indicating a surplus of approximately 73,200 tons [5]. - With new production capacities coming online and the production season starting, soda ash supply is expected to remain high, and factory inventories may begin to accumulate again [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is undergoing significant adjustments, with varying conditions across different cities, leading to a complex decision-making process for potential homebuyers [1][2][12] Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 10.2%. Compared to the peak in 2018, the transaction volume has shrunk by nearly 40%, indicating a deep adjustment period in the real estate market [1][4] - The inventory of commercial housing reached approximately 680 million square meters by the end of March 2025, with a depletion cycle of nearly 22 months, significantly exceeding the reasonable level of 12-18 months [4][5] Price Trends - The housing price differentiation across cities is notable, with three tiers identified: - First-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai) have stabilized prices with slight increases in core areas, such as a 1.2% rise in Shanghai's core area in Q1 2025 [4] - Second-tier cities (e.g., Hangzhou, Nanjing) show a trend of stability with some declines, particularly in suburban areas [4] - Third-tier cities are experiencing continuous price declines, with some areas seeing drops exceeding 30% [4][5] Demographic Changes - China's population is undergoing significant changes, with a reported decline of approximately 950,000 in 2024. By 2035, over 20% of the population is expected to be over 65 years old, indicating a shift towards a deeply aging society [7] - The decrease in total population suggests a narrowing of housing demand, while the trend of population concentration in major cities continues, leading to market differentiation [7] Financial Environment - Since the second half of 2024, mortgage rates have been decreasing, with the average rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to around 3.8%, a historical low [7] - Various regions have relaxed purchasing restrictions, including lowering down payment ratios and easing purchase limits, which have somewhat boosted market confidence [7] Housing Affordability - The average housing price-to-income ratio across 50 major cities is now 8.6, down from 11.3 in 2018, indicating improved affordability. The ratios for first-tier cities stand at 12.5, while second-tier cities are at 8.2, and third-tier cities at 6.7 [7] Buyer Strategies - For first-time homebuyers with stable income, now may be a favorable time to enter the market, especially in first and second-tier cities where promotional efforts by developers are strong [9] - Existing homeowners looking to upgrade should consider a "sell first, buy later" strategy to maximize negotiation power in the current market [9] - Investors should be cautious, focusing on prime locations in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, as short-term appreciation is less likely [9][10] - Those unable to afford ideal housing or uncertain about their future location may choose to wait, but should be aware that prime resources in major cities may become scarcer [10] Key Considerations - Personal financial health is crucial, with a recommendation that monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 40% of household income [10] - Location selection is vital, as properties in quality areas tend to retain value better even during market downturns [10] - The quality of the property itself is increasingly important, with well-constructed and well-located properties showing resilience in value [10] - Awareness of urban development plans can significantly influence long-term property value, as infrastructure improvements can enhance desirability [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].