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丙烯日报:供应持续宽松,成本端支撑有限-20251209
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene remains loose, and the cost - side support is limited. The overall propylene start - up continues at a high level, but the downstream start - up weakens. The price rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5819 yuan/ton (+1), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+10), and in North China is 6090 yuan/ton (+40). The basis in East China is 181 yuan/ton (+9), and in North China is 125 yuan/ton (+19). The start - up rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 187 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 54 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 353 yuan/ton (-10), and the in - plant inventory is 47890 tons (-1080) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The start - up rate of PP powder is 40% (-1.98%), and the production profit is - 340 yuan/ton (-40); the start - up rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+1%), and the production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (-93); the start - up rate of n - butanol is 74% (-8%), and the production profit is 442 yuan/ton (-45); the start - up rate of octanol is 74% (-7%), and the production profit is 693 yuan/ton (-29); the start - up rate of acrylic acid is 78% (+1%), and the production profit is 415 yuan/ton (-7); the start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton (-78); the start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 82% (+1%), and the production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (-150) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Dongguan Juzhengyuan and Shandong Binhuahua's PDH devices are expected to restart. The phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance is not obvious, and the overall propylene start - up continues at a high level. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device has not restarted yet. The external sales volume of propylene products may continue to increase [2] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream start - up weakens. Considering the rising propylene price and the pressure on downstream profits, the price difference between PP and propylene narrows. Downstream is resistant to high - priced raw materials. Some main powder devices reduce the load or stop. The start - up of the main downstream PP powder decreases month - on - month. The profit of propylene oxide is acceptable, and the downstream is mainly for phased replenishment. Affected by the maintenance of Luxi and Satellite's butanol and octanol devices, the start - up rate of butanol and octanol decreases significantly. In the later stage, the downstream cost pressure still restricts the recovery of demand [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices tend to fluctuate, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The price of external propane has been strong recently. Pay attention to the cost - side disturbances recently [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Due to insufficient supply - demand drive, the rebound space may be limited. It will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [2] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided 3.4 Directory - related Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes charts such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, etc. [3][5][7] - **Propylene production profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, etc. [3][15][17] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Includes charts such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, etc. [3][27][28] - **Propylene downstream profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, etc. [3][35][36] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes charts such as propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [3][61][62]
原油继续震荡等待地缘方向,能化中仅PX、PTA暂维持偏多思路
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 12:57
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].
PTA期货:供需维持偏紧,需求预期转弱
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 08:53
2025年12月08日 周报 期货研究报告 PTA期货:供需维持偏紧,需求预期转弱 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号:F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读: 1、市场回顾与展望:本周PTA盘面呈现4650-4800区间震荡偏强。周初日线破位冲高,之后回落调整。 上周PTA负荷持稳至73.7%。上周装置运行偏稳,独山能源、YS、川能等仍在停车;聚酯负荷有所提升至91.5, 环比增加0.2%,江浙织机周均开工率为71.3%,周环比下降0.4%。PTA供需维持偏紧格局。原料端:PX供应依 然偏紧走势偏强,PXN坚挺;原油走势震荡。原油不稳定和需求预期转弱导致PTA追涨动力不足。 2、PX方面:短期短流程开工支撑下对PX供应影响有限,但一季度随着部分亚洲装置检修预期下,PX供 应存收缩预期,中期供需好转预期下PX支撑偏强。PTA方面,近期PTA装置检修集中,当前聚酯工厂库存偏低, 短期聚酯负荷预计大幅下降风险不大,维持91%附近,但江浙织机负荷下降较多,聚酯需求预期走弱。故PTA 短期受现货支撑,逢低做多为佳,受聚酯需要预期影响,冲高后谨慎追单。 关注因素:1.聚酯开工率;2.PTA检修;3 ...
《能源化工》日报-20251208
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:11
1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw materials may accelerate its decline. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and poor terminal demand, multiple short - term negatives are suppressing the price. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Crude Oil - There are more positive factors in the news of the short - term crude oil market, and the oil price is generally strong. However, the main logic of the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the rebound space of the oil price is limited. It is expected that the short - term Brent oil will fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Although the inventory has decreased in stages, the over - supply problem still exists, and the demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. - Glass: In the short - term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the demand will shrink, and the price will be under pressure [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply pressure remains, and the demand is lackluster. It is expected to continue the range - bound operation and maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [7]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases, but the profit is weak. The traditional downstream demand is supported, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. The price is currently weak [8][9]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply and demand both increase, and the overall valuation is neutral to low. - LLDPE: The supply increases, and attention should be paid to the basis repair near the delivery [14]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand support is limited, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. The price drive is weak. - Styrene: The supply pressure eases, the supply - demand structure improves, but the upward space is limited due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand [16]. Urea - The daily production increases, the inventory decreases, and the orders increase. The overall supply - demand situation shows certain changes [17]. LPG - The price of LPG futures and spot shows a certain decline, the inventory decreases, and the downstream PDH start - up rate increases slightly [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The short - term drive is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve, but the absolute price increase is restricted by the oil price. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is tight, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to continue to explore the bottom. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is compressed. - Polyester bottle - chip: The supply - demand is loose, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [20]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, etc. [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The tire production and export decreased, and the natural rubber import decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, and the出库 rate and入库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, and the basis changed [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts changed, and the reference basis changed [6]. - **Volume**: The start - up rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased significantly [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - start area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and different contracts changed, and the spreads changed [7]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China increased, and the export profit increased significantly [7]. - **PVC Overseas Quote & Export Profit**: The overseas quotes of PVC decreased, and the export profit decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Start - up Rate & Industry Profit**: The start - up rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of PVC increased. The profits of different production processes changed [7]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the start - up rate of the printing and dyeing industry decreased [7]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PVC downstream products decreased slightly, and the pre - sales volume decreased slightly [7]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social Inventory & Factory Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in different regions increased [7]. Methanol - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [8]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol decreased [8]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The upstream start - up rate increased slightly, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries changed [9]. Polyolefins - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased [14]. - **Futures Contract Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of LLDPE and PP changed [14]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis changed [14]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the social inventory of PE decreased slightly [14]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [14]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Benzene - Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The prices of benzene - styrene futures and spot changed, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene changed [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [16]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of urea futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [17]. - **Main Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of the main futures contracts changed [17]. - **Raw Material and Spot Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea changed [17]. LPG - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts decreased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **LPG Outer - market Price**: The outer - market prices of LPG increased [18]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery inventory ratio, port inventory, and port inventory ratio of LPG decreased [18]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries of LPG changed [18]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, and ethylene changed [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [20]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PX and its spreads changed [20]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA and its spreads changed [20]. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: The prices of MEG and its spreads changed [20]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [20].
有色早报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 01:45
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/08 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 2025/12/04 220 4473 115035 32139 -1611.35 -281.23 38.0 48.0 50.44 162825 64325 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 6385 ...
烧碱期货价格创上市以来新低!分析人士:短期弱势难改
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-07 01:58
Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to structural oversupply, with futures prices hitting new lows since listing, and near-month contracts declining more sharply than far-month contracts [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of December 4, the inventory of caustic soda in fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises across the country reached 504,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year surge of 79.32% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda sample enterprises was 86.0%, with a weekly output of 846,000 tons, both figures at year-high levels [1] - The demand from the alumina industry, the largest downstream consumer of caustic soda, is weakening due to falling product prices and negative profit margins, leading to some companies initiating short-term maintenance and production cuts [2][3] Price Movements and Profitability - Despite the decline in caustic soda prices, the price of liquid chlorine has risen from -500 yuan/ton in September to 150 yuan/ton, which has helped offset some of the pressure from falling caustic soda prices [2] - The average profit margin for Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises is currently 241 yuan/ton, indicating a return to profitability [2] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the caustic soda market are unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, with supply pressures expected to persist until there is a significant decrease in operating rates [3][4] - The potential for new caustic soda capacity additions of approximately 1 million tons by 2025 and over 2 million tons by 2026 could maintain supply pressures [3] - A shift towards a more balanced supply-demand situation may not occur until after the 2026 Spring Festival, when seasonal maintenance could reduce supply and downstream stocking demand may be released [3][4]
11-12月多晶硅头部大减产!供需关系会否逆转?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The production of polysilicon in China is significantly below expectations for November and December due to production cuts and delays by leading companies, impacting supply dynamics in the market [2][4][9]. Group 1: Production Data - In November, the final production of polysilicon was reported at 114,600 tons, a decrease of 14.48% compared to October [2][9]. - The expected production for December is projected to be 113,500 tons, indicating a continued decline in output [2][9]. - Market expectations for November's polysilicon production were around 120,000 tons, highlighting a significant shortfall [2][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Production Cuts - The primary reason for the lower-than-expected production is the reduction in output by several leading companies, particularly in Inner Mongolia, where two companies accounted for approximately 300,000 tons of capacity shortfall [4][11]. - One company delayed its production ramp-up, while another proactively reduced its load, reflecting industry self-discipline [4][11]. - Additional factors include slow ramp-up of production in regions like Ningxia and reductions by smaller manufacturers due to market conditions and inventory pressures [4][11]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the production cuts, the supply-demand relationship for polysilicon has not reversed, as downstream demand has also led to significant reductions in silicon wafer production [4][11]. - In November, the final production of silicon wafers was 54.37 GW, a decrease of 9.38% month-on-month, with December's expected production at 45.7 GW, reflecting a 15.95% decline [4][11]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The price outlook for polysilicon remains uncertain, with significant upward pressure due to inventory levels and downstream sentiment [6][13]. - However, leading polysilicon producers have shown a clear intent to stabilize the market, which is currently the main factor supporting price stability [6][13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251205
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 06:17
| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...
能源化策略:沙特下调1?对亚洲的OSP价格,原油震荡化?偏弱
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 02:10
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-05 沙特下调1⽉对亚洲的OSP价格,原油 震荡化⼯偏弱 俄乌谈判进展缓慢,原油价格延续震荡整理。当前乌克兰谈判代表将 在佛罗里达州举行新一轮会谈,而俄罗斯总统普京表示,美国支持的和平 计划中部分内容"不可接受",这一最新信号表明短期内冲突结束的可能 性极低。同时,特朗普再次重申,"很快"将开始在委内瑞拉境内打击贩 毒集团,美军已在该地区集结兵力。原油中期格局趋弱,短期受到地缘不 确定性的支撑,仍将延续震荡整理。未来的变量可能在于俄乌谈判的达 成,或者是俄罗斯贴水持续回落后买盘的回归。沙特下调了1月对亚洲的O SP价格,该举措通常被认为是对需求偏弱的确认或是抢占市场份额。 板块逻辑: 美国天然气期货价格在周三升至35个月高位,LNG出口工厂的流入量 创下纪录高位,且天气预报显示气温将下降,天然气的上涨带动了乙烷价 格的走高。乙烷是乙烯和乙二醇的重要原料,乙烷的走高,乙烯和乙二醇 价格的走弱,当前乙烷裂解的利润快速下滑,这有可能影响后期美国乙二 醇的生产。美国是排在沙特后面的第二大乙二醇出口国,占全球乙二醇出 口比例 ...
锡产业期现日报-20251205
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:44
| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 317600 | 309300 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 200 | 250 | -50 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 318100 | 309800 | 8300 | 2.68% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 133.00 | 92.00 | 41.00 | 44.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -17412.99 | -16070.31 | -1342.68 | -8.36% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...