1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. The start - up of the Medog Hydropower Station has boosted market expectations for future demand for building materials. In the short term, there are expectations of production capacity reduction on the supply side and demand is stimulated by large - scale infrastructure projects. With low inventory levels, steel prices may have a basis for continuous increase. The notice on coal production verification has also driven up coal prices, further supporting steel prices. Currently, the market is more influenced by policies and sentiment than by fundamentals [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - side**: This week, the total output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a slight decrease from last week. The blast furnace profit in East China remained around 220 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit increased significantly [7]. - **Demand - side**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The demand showed a slight recovery but remained weak overall [7]. - **Imports and Exports**: 155,000 tons of steel billets were imported in June [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The rebar inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Profit**: The pig iron cost was 2540 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was 256 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 33 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills continued to rise, and their production willingness was strong [8]. - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse receipt basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 1.6% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy was recommended [11]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: The 01 - contract basis was - 103 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 128 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 25 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was 84 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Spreads**: Beijing's coil - rebar spread was 150 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton), Shanghai's was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), and Guangzhou's was 0 yuan/ton (last week: - 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 70 yuan/ton (last week: 60 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 22 yuan/ton (last week: 22 yuan/ton). Beijing's premium for spiral rebar was 130 yuan/ton, Shanghai's was 180 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou's was 190 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week [27][30][33]. - **Prices and Ratios**: The price of 20MnSi billet in Tangshan was 3240 yuan/ton, the aggregated price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Beijing was 3340 yuan/ton. The FOB export price of Chinese rebar was 452 US dollars/ton, and the CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the US, the EU, and the Middle East were 460, 995, 605, and 610 US dollars/ton respectively. The lowest spot price of rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, the lowest spot price of coke was 1438 yuan/ton, and the lowest spot price of iron ore was 871 yuan/ton [36][39]. 3.3 Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton from last week. The blast furnace profit of rebar was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week. The scrap steel arrival price was 2242 yuan/ton, the pig iron cost was 3358 yuan/ton, and the average pig iron cost of 64 steel mills was 2540 yuan/ton [42][50]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Weekly Output**: The total weekly output of rebar was 2.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. The long - process output was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The short - process output was 0.24 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [54]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91% (unchanged from last week), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55%, a week - on - week increase from 52% [57]. - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.42 million tons, the same as last week [61]. - **Regional Output**: The rebar output in the northern region was 500,000 tons (last week: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 740,000 tons (last week: 770,000 tons). In the East China region, it was 880,000 tons, including 340,000 tons in Jiangsu, 80,000 tons in Shandong, and 210,000 tons in Anhui. In Guangdong, it was 200,000 tons, and in Guangxi, it was 60,000 tons [65][68][71]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Building Material Transactions**: The weekly average building material transactions of 237 national distributors were 117,741 tons (last week: 105,098 tons), and in Shanghai, it was 16,600 tons (unchanged from last week). The transactions of building steel in different regions are also provided [75]. - **Rebar Consumption**: The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.17 million tons, and in East China, it was 0.84 million tons. In the Southwest, it was 0.3 million tons, and in South China, it was 0.29 million tons. Other regional consumption data are also available [85][87]. - **Related Prices**: The price of P.O42.5 cement in Hangzhou was 470 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 465 yuan/ton [95]. 3.6 Inventory - **Total and Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar was 3.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.5%. The factory inventory was 1.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. The total inventory was 5.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.1%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.07 million tons (last week: 1.04 million tons) [8][100]. - **Regional Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 132 cities was 5.47 million tons, in East China was 2.45 million tons, in Hangzhou was 0.57 million tons, and in Shanghai was 0.17 million tons. Other regional inventory data are also provided [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **soda ash industry** and its supply-demand dynamics for the first half of 2025, highlighting significant cost reductions and production capacity changes [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Reduction**: The marginal cost of soda ash decreased significantly from **1,500-1,600 RMB/ton** to **1,000-1,200 RMB/ton** due to falling prices of coal and raw salt, with raw salt prices dropping from **300 RMB/ton** to **210 RMB/ton** or lower, resulting in a cost reduction of over **100 RMB/ton** [1][9]. - **Production Capacity**: Approximately **2 million tons** of new production capacity was added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total national capacity to **41.1 million tons**. The production ramp-up is in line with expectations, but actual output has not met projections due to maintenance [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: Despite increased capacity, the market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand. Exports reached nearly **1 million tons** in the first half of 2025, alleviating domestic oversupply pressures [2][8]. - **Key Production Metrics**: Daily production peaked at **10.8-10.9 thousand tons** but fell to **9.2-9.3 thousand tons** during low periods. A critical threshold is identified at **9.5 thousand tons/day**, below which a temporary supply gap may occur [3][5]. - **Glass Market Impact**: The float glass market is experiencing stable daily melting rates around **15.6 thousand tons**, with a slight overcapacity. The photovoltaic glass market is currently in a state of oversupply, which could significantly impact soda ash demand if daily melting rates drop to **77 thousand tons** [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: The visible inventory remains high, with factory stocks around **1.8-2 million tons** and total social inventory approximately **2.1 million tons**. This high inventory level poses potential pressure on the market [2][8]. - **Production Methods**: The production methods for soda ash include ammonia-soda process (36% share), joint-soda process (43% share), and natural soda process (17% share). Despite price declines, the overall operating rates have remained stable [4]. - **Future Capacity Projections**: In 2026, new capacity additions are expected from Yuanqing and Jinshan, totaling about **4.8 million tons**, which will exacerbate the existing overcapacity situation [2][15]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost structure varies by production method, with ammonia-soda process costs around **1,130 RMB/ton** and joint-soda process costs approximately **1,000 RMB/ton**. If raw salt prices rise, costs could increase significantly [10][11]. - **Environmental Policies**: Environmental regulations may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacities in the glass industry, which is a significant downstream consumer of soda ash [14]. - **Challenges in Capacity Reduction**: The industry faces challenges in reducing capacity due to the dominance of large firms with resource advantages, making it difficult to implement effective capacity cuts [12][13]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to face continued pressure from high inventory levels and potential overcapacity, necessitating price adjustments to achieve a new supply-demand balance [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery due to ongoing policy adjustments and market dynamics, with both new and second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly in major cities [1][2][3]. Market Activity - In the first half of the year, major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou reported substantial increases in new housing transactions, with Shanghai's daily sales averaging about 10,000 square meters, a 38% year-on-year increase [2]. - The second-hand housing market is also active, with Beijing's transaction volume averaging around 35 deals per weekend in July [2][3]. - Nationally, the second-hand housing transaction volume has increased, with Chengdu reporting a 19.8% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year [3]. Policy Impact - Various local governments are implementing policies to stimulate the housing market, such as reducing down payment ratios and providing financial incentives for families [3][4]. - The introduction of "带押过户" (mortgage transfer) policies in cities like Chengdu has facilitated smoother transactions in the second-hand market [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - There is a concerted effort to increase the supply of affordable housing, with significant projects underway in cities like Ningbo and Beijing, aiming to meet the growing demand for rental properties [4]. - The construction of high-quality housing is being prioritized, with local governments providing financial support to developers to enhance housing quality [5]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the ongoing urbanization process and the influx of new residents will continue to drive demand in the real estate market, indicating substantial growth potential [7][8]. - The central government is advocating for a new model of real estate development that emphasizes structural reforms in land supply and housing demand forecasting [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - **Methanol**: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - **Urea**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - **PX**: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - **PTA**: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - **Short - fiber**: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - **PP**: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - **Plastic**: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - **Styrene**: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a slight premium. The inventory situation is neutral, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - moving 20 - day average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Overall, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, and in the long - term, it is bullish for aluminum prices. However, with a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 20880, with a basis of 40, showing a premium over futures, rated as neutral [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, rated as neutral [2]. - Price trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, rated as bullish [2]. - Main positions: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing, rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will trigger changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long - term. With a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770 yesterday, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price today is 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt inventory is 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory (daily) is 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2024, the production, net import, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of aluminum in China are as follows: In 2018, production was 3609 million tons, net import was 7.03 million tons, apparent consumption was 3615.03 million tons, actual consumption was 3662.63 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons. In 2019, production was 3542.48 million tons, net import was - 0.64 million tons, apparent consumption was 3541.84 million tons, actual consumption was 3610.44 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 68.61 million tons. In 2020, production was 3712.44 million tons, net import was 105.78 million tons, apparent consumption was 3818.22 million tons, actual consumption was 3816.92 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 1.3 million tons. In 2021, production was 3849.2 million tons, net import was 150.33 million tons, apparent consumption was 3994.63 million tons, actual consumption was 4008.83 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 14.2 million tons. In 2022, production was 4007.33 million tons, net import was 46.55 million tons, apparent consumption was 4053.88 million tons, actual consumption was 4083.86 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 29.98 million tons. In 2023, production was 4151.3 million tons, net import was 139.24 million tons, apparent consumption was 4290.51 million tons, actual consumption was 4294.81 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 4.31 million tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 4312.27 million tons, net import is expected to be 196.16 million tons, apparent consumption is expected to be 4502.5 million tons, actual consumption is expected to be 4487.5 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be 15 million tons [24].

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal market currently faces high overall supply, primarily concentrated in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, with some provinces maintaining high production levels to meet GDP targets despite safety and environmental pressures leading to reductions in certain areas [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - The coal industry in the second half of the year will rely on policy interventions to address the oversupply issue, with anti-involution policies providing hope for market stabilization. Without such interventions, self-balancing of supply and demand is unlikely [3][4] - Historical experiences indicate that past supply-side reforms, such as those in 2016, significantly boosted coal prices, suggesting that similar policy measures could lead to market recovery [3][9] - To achieve supply-demand balance, a reduction of at least 60 million tons of domestic coal production is necessary in the second half of the year, with specific reductions depending on demand growth rates [3][13] Demand and Supply Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the coal industry is expected to face excess supply pressure, with supply growth of 6% from January to May and a monthly increase of 4% in May [2] - Demand is anticipated to improve in the second half, particularly for thermal power and chemical coal, although demand from the steel and cement sectors remains weak. Increased thermal power demand is a key driver for potential price increases [6][7] Price and Inventory Trends - Despite high total social inventory levels, there has been a recent decline. Continued high temperatures and increased demand for iron and chemical coal could further reduce inventory, leading to price increases [6][7] - Current coking coal prices are trending upwards due to lower inventory levels [6] Company Performance - Different listed companies exhibit varied production performances. For instance, China Shenhua has seen a decline in production, while companies like China Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and Lu'an have experienced growth. Overall, most companies are still in a growth phase [8] Historical Context - The current situation bears similarities to past periods of overcapacity, particularly the 2014-2015 downturn, followed by a significant recovery post-2016 policy interventions [9][11] Future Outlook and Recommendations - To stabilize coal prices, it is essential to reduce social inventory to a five-year average, targeting a rebound in thermal coal prices to 750 RMB per ton. This requires both a reduction in imports and domestic production [13] - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations, such as Jineng Technology and Shaanxi Black Cat, which may offer good returns in the future [14]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of steel continues to rise, leading to another increase in the black market. The fundamentals of steel have minor contradictions and are slightly better than the seasonal performance, with effective raw material support [1]. - The iron ore price is oscillating upward due to the recovery of hot metal production. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. - The first round of price increases for coking coal and coke has fully landed, and the prices are oscillating strongly. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises will increase, and attention should be paid to the demand in the off - season and the supply changes of coking coal [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal at the pithead is continuously shrinking, and the port coal price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the price is strong due to rising demand, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, steel futures and spot prices showed a strong trend, with the hot - rolled coil futures main contract reaching a new high. The spot trading volume was 9.48 tons, and the basis continued to shrink [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the output of rebar decreased, demand weakened in the off - season, and inventory slightly increased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. The fundamentals are slightly better than the seasonal performance, and raw material support is still effective [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated upward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise. The trading volume of national main port iron ore was 114.4 tons, a 14.40% increase, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot was 189.7 tons, a 24.80% increase. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43% [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, hot metal production recovered, and iron ore consumption showed good resilience. Port inventory slightly increased, and large - scale inventory slightly decreased. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated within a range. The first round of price increases for coke fully landed, the port clearance of imported coal slowly recovered, and inventory continued to decline [5]. Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, production remained stable, inventory slightly decreased, and demand increased. Some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, but production enthusiasm will increase after the price increase. For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 is slow, and the supply is relatively insufficient. Steel mills still have rigid demand [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Others: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production area, some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the price of some coal types increased by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage, and the market coal price increased steadily. The high - calorie Australian coal price was inverted, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal had a cost - performance advantage [8]. Supply - Demand and Logic - In July, with the increase in temperature, the downstream daily consumption increased, and the demand strengthened. In the short term, the price is oscillating strongly, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Strategy No strategy information provided.