1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some regional pressures. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to be in a state of inventory accumulation, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, while the domestic vegetable oil has a relatively stable fundamental situation. The US corn may have a rebound space, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline. The pig price is expected to decline slightly, and the peanut market is expected to be stable with new - season supply increasing. The egg market has obvious supply - side pressure, and the apple market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][6][10][18][24][30][34][44][52][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1062.75 cents/bu, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.41% to 293.4 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, US soybean crop good - excellent rate was 69%. As of August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The expected current - year soybean import volume increased by 120 tons to 1.5 million tons. As of August 22, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. Soybean inventory increased by 0.31% to 6.8253 million tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 3.8% to 1.0533 million tons [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but Brazilian and Argentine soybeans have price or export pressure. The domestic soybean market has a high inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy soybean and rapeseed meal at low prices for far - month contracts; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar price fluctuated, with the main contract down 0.05 (- 0.3%) to 16.39 cents/lb. London white sugar price rose in the previous trading day, with the main contract up 3.4 (0.7%) to 486.3 dollars/ton [8]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the waiting sugar volume was 2.9169 million tons. Southern China's sugar quotes were stable with average transactions [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, but the actual sugar production is lower than expected, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider selling out - of - the - money strangles [11][12][13]. Oilseeds - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil main price fell 0.94% to 54.84 cents/lb, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price fell 0.24% to 4482 ringgit/ton [15]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. In July, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13%. As of August 22, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 5.70%, and the soybean oil inventory increased by 3.79% [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. The domestic soybean oil pressure is released, and the vegetable oil inventory is decreasing [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, expand the P15 spread after a correction; for options, wait and see [19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.5% to 412.5 cents/bu [21]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 23, Brazil's second - crop corn harvest rate was 94.8%. The US corn export inspection volume increased. The domestic corn price was weak [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn may rebound, and the domestic corn price is expected to decline [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy the December corn on dips and go long on the 01 corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [25][27]. Pig - **Relevant Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with some regions falling. Piglet and sow prices changed, and the pork wholesale price was stable [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market supply pressure increased, and the price is expected to decline slightly [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [31]. Peanut - **Relevant Information**: The peanut price was weakly falling, the oil mill's demand was low, and the peanut oil price was strong. The peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is stable, but the new - season supply is expected to increase [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short 11 and 01 peanuts on rallies, wait and see currently, and go long on 05 peanuts lightly; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell pk601 - C - 8200 options [35][37][38]. Egg - **Relevant Information**: The egg price was stable, the in - production laying hen inventory increased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory increased [40][42][43]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline. Consider shorting on rallies [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Apple - **Relevant Information**: The apple cold - storage inventory decreased, the import and export volumes changed, the early - maturing apple price was polarized, and the storage profit decreased [47][51][52]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.62 (0.91%) to 67.38 cents/lb [57]. - **Relevant Information**: As of August 24, the US cotton good - excellent rate was 54%. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade was 200,000 tons. As of mid - August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was at a low level [58]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact is weakened, the supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be slightly stronger [59][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [62].

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]

Group 1 - The float glass industry is entering a traditional peak season, which may lead to a temporary improvement in the supply-demand structure [1] - The average ex-factory price of domestic light soda ash is 1267.5 yuan/ton, down 2.9% from the end of July, while the average ex-factory price of float glass is 1209.38 yuan/ton, down 6.92% from the end of July [1] - Despite high inventory levels among float glass producers and intermediaries, improved orders from downstream processing plants are expected to support the sales rate of float glass manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The soda ash market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand imbalance, with the Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's second phase 2.8 million ton facility expected to start production in the second half of the year [2] - The operating load of the soda ash industry is expected to remain between 85%-89%, with a daily output of 10.7-11.2 thousand tons [2] - The demand for soda ash remains relatively stable, but poor profitability of downstream products limits support for the soda ash market, leading to expectations of a weak market in the short to medium term [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not rated - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated - Caustic Soda: Not rated - PX: Not rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: Not rated - Bottle Chip: Not rated - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin and polyolefin futures contracts showed different trends. The olefin futures declined, while the polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, putting pressure on prices [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had their own characteristics. The pure benzene market was expected to improve in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. The styrene market had cost support but limited unilateral drive [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA had different price trends, and the polyester industry was expected to increase its load. Ethylene glycol was in short - term low - level oscillation, and short - fiber was recommended for long - term configuration [4]. - The methanol market was in a weak trend, and the urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment [5]. - The PVC market was weak, and the caustic soda market had short - term support but long - term supply pressure [6]. - The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the glass market was expected to be near the cost line [7]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures: The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. There were both start - up and shutdown plans for devices. The inventory pressure of producers was relatively controllable, and the downstream demand was general [2]. - Polyolefin futures: The main contracts of polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply of polyethylene decreased slightly, and the demand improvement was limited. The supply of polypropylene was expected to increase, and the demand was weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The pure benzene market was expected to improve seasonally in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3]. - Styrene: The styrene market had cost support, but the unilateral drive was limited. The domestic production was expected to increase [3]. Polyester - PX - PTA: The price of PX increased slightly, and the PX - PTA spread shrank. The polyester industry was expected to increase its load, and the PX supply - demand was expected to improve [4]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price was above 4400 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and it was in short - term low - level oscillation [4]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was recommended for long - term configuration and monthly spread positive arbitrage [4]. - Bottle chip: The bottle - chip processing spread oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the repair space [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The methanol market continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to reach a historical high in the third - quarter end [5]. - Urea: The urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment. The supply - demand was loose in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The PVC market was weak. The export competition pressure increased, the supply was high, and the demand was insufficient [6]. - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market had short - term support from replenishment demand but long - term supply pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price was under pressure [7]. - Glass: The glass market was expected to be near the cost line, and the short - term real - world trading was weak [7].

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, but steel prices still have upward drivers. The overall inventory accumulation pressure of steel is not large. Considering the expected production cuts in Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and surrounding provinces before the September military parade and the potential for terminal demand to form restocking support during the off - peak to peak season transition, steel prices are expected to have limited short - term decline space and medium - term upward drivers [3]. - The iron ore market has limited short - term supply pressure, and the inventory has no obvious accumulation pressure. It follows the changes in macro - policy expectations and market sentiment. With the transition from the off - season to the peak season, terminal demand remains resilient, and there are still opportunities for medium - term low - buying [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is firm. Coking coal mines in some areas have production cuts, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profitability has improved, and the sixth round of price increases has been initiated. With high iron - water production supporting raw materials, there is still upward space [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The coking coal and coke market is firm, and steel prices are oscillating. Last week, there were many disturbances in coking coal supply news. Supported by high iron - water production, the coking coal and coke market was strong, forming cost support. The industrial structure continued to have slight inventory accumulation during the off - season, exports remained resilient, and the market sentiment was optimistic, with prices showing slight oscillating adjustments [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National weekly production of rebar was 221.18 million tons (up 4.79% week - on - week and 31.23% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coils was 314.89 million tons (down 2.45% week - on - week and up 3.73% year - on - year). Both blast - furnace and electric - furnace rebar production increased [13][16][18]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.75% (up 0.35% week - on - week and 3.04% year - on - year), and the electric - furnace operating rate was 74.9% (up 0.93% week - on - week and 36.98% year - on - year) [24][28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 177 yuan/ton (up 22.03% week - on - week and 289 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 188 yuan/ton (down 10.05% week - on - week and up 303 yuan/ton year - on - year) [29][32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 210.79 million tons (up 3.63% week - on - week and 7.57% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 306.21 million tons (down 4.31% week - on - week and up 2.58% year - on - year) [33][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 556.68 million tons (up 1.90% week - on - week and down 22.70% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 356.63 million tons (up 2.49% week - on - week and down 18.46% year - on - year) [38][41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real - estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week and decreased by 15.43% year - on - year. The transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.91% week - on - week and 13.12% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month growth of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [47][50][53]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 24.639 million tons (down 7.99% week - on - week and 2.84% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 25.078 million tons (up 11.93% week - on - week and down 3.94% year - on - year) [56][61]. - **Demand**: Daily iron - water production was 2.4032 million tons (down 0.39 million tons week - on - week and up 0.862 million tons year - on - year), and the ore - handling volume at 45 iron - ore ports was 3.2185 million tons (up 6.32% week - on - week and 1.58% year - on - year) [62][66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron - ore ports was 137.1227 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 8.80% year - on - year), and the imported iron - ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1334 million tons (up 0.01% week - on - week and down 0.36% year - on - year) [67][72]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.89% (down 2.80% week - on - week and 6.58% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 36.22% (up 3.40% week - on - week and down 17.36% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 142,300 tons (up 23.56% week - on - week and 1.05% year - on - year) [74][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 16 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.03% (up 0.46% week - on - week and 0.42% year - on - year) [82][86]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 8.3304 million tons (down 1.31% week - on - week and up 18.21% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 8.0848 million tons (up 0.61% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.7734 million tons (down 1.69% week - on - week and 11.24% year - on - year) [87][92]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 446,300 tons (down 4.06% week - on - week and up 1.39% year - on - year), that of steel mills was 6.1928 million tons (down 1.18% week - on - week and up 15.49% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1815 million tons (up 1.42% week - on - week and 15.29% year - on - year) [93][98]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,230 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 520 yuan/ton year - on - year) [99][104]. 5. Spread Analysis - The rebar basis is shrinking, and the spread between the rebar 10 - 1 contracts is narrowing. The iron ore 9 - 1 spread is narrowing, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar first widened and then narrowed [106][112].

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing low prices due to a combination of high inventory levels and reduced demand, with expectations of short-term price fluctuations followed by a long-term decline as raw material prices weaken [2][3][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Corn prices are at a five-year low, with the national standard second-grade corn price at 2300 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 2.95% [2]. - Corn starch prices are also at a five-year low, with the Shandong national standard first-grade corn starch price at 2890 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of about 1.70% [2]. - Domestic corn starch inventory increased by 8.47 million tons in the first seven months of the year, while production decreased by 830,400 tons, leading to a net supply increase of 7.68 million tons [3]. - Major corn starch enterprises have seen a decrease in delivery volume by 809,400 tons year-on-year, indicating lower consumption compared to previous years [3]. Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees high consumption of starch sugar, with a year-on-year increase in corn starch consumption for starch sugar of 39,000 tons, totaling 1.95 million tons in the first seven months [4]. - The paper industry has maintained a higher operating rate, with corrugated paper and boxboard paper operating rates at 59.83% and 63.55%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [4]. - The price advantage of cassava starch is impacting corn starch consumption, as the price gap has narrowed to the lowest level in five years [4]. Future Outlook - As the peak stocking season approaches, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand, which may lead to a stronger price performance within a certain range [5]. - However, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to anticipated abundant corn production, which is expected to weaken prices [5].