1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed a decrease last week, with a production of 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week reduction but still above the historical average. The demand - side saw a decrease in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Cost - side analysis indicates that the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate remained flat, while the cost of lithium mica increased. The overall situation shows a tight supply - demand balance, with the market influenced by news - driven sentiment oscillations [8]. - The expected supply of lithium carbonate in the next month is predicted to decline, with production and imports decreasing by 16.31% and 11.02% respectively compared to the previous month. However, the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased last week, demand - side inventory declined, and cost - side conditions varied. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 141,645 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 5,050 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 140,647 yuan/ton, a 2.70% daily increase, also with a loss. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 142,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,920 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week and below the historical average. Downstream inventory increased by 1.91% week - on - week and was above the historical average. Other inventories decreased by 4.44% week - on - week and were above the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 2.39% week - on - week and was below the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, lithium carbonate production and imports are expected to decline, while demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related upstream products, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.26% to 142,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.35% to 139,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The daily production cost of spodumene remained flat at 141,645 yuan/ton, while the daily production cost of lithium mica increased by 2.70% to 140,647 yuan/ton. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate decreased by 11.49% to 26,950 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 5.00% to 325,200 tons, and the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms. The monthly total battery loading volume increased by 4.92% to 98,100 GWh [17]. 3.3 Supply - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore, production, and import volume showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed fluctuations, with a balance of 12,364 LCE in January 2026 [25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials and the monthly production and import volume were presented. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed fluctuations, with a balance of 2,693 physical tons in January 2026 [32][40]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide were analyzed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide was - 1,361 physical tons in January 2026 [43][45]. 3.4 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling production methods for lithium carbonate were analyzed. The profit and cost of lithium hydroxide production by different methods, as well as the profit of related processing and conversion, were also presented [48][50][53]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters and the total inventory, as well as the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source, were shown [56]. 3.6 Demand - **Lithium Battery - Power Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries were analyzed. The monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume showed different trends [58]. - **Lithium Battery - Energy Storage**: The inventory, winning bids, operating rate, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries were presented [60]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors were analyzed [63][66]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, operating rate, production, and inventory of ternary materials were analyzed [70][72]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium were presented [74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles were analyzed [82][83][86].

国家烟草专卖局关于落实电子烟产业政策 进一步推动供需动态平衡的通知 一、规范企业投资行为。 严格落实电子烟限制类产业政策要求，不得投资新建项目，迁建及恢复建设项目不得增加产能。原址技术改造 （含生产设备购置）项目一般不得增加产能，确需增加产能的，应符合电子烟产业政策、监管政策以及产能管理规定，产能利用率处于较高 水平，具有真实且持续增加的市场需求以及与生产经营相配套的安全卫生环保设施设备和技术条件，符合智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，并 严格按照《电子烟固定资产投资管理细则》（国烟法〔2024〕104号）有关要求履行程序。其中，以出口销售为主的企业应证明新增产能 所生产的产品符合目的地国家（地区）的法律法规和监管要求。电子烟相关生产企业原址技术改造扩大产能不得导致电子烟产业总产能增 加。电子烟相关生产企业不得违规增加生产线数量、能力或增设零配件产线，不得将主要生产工序委托至无证企业代工，禁止变相扩大生产 能力、规避固定资产投资审批。电子烟相关生产企业投资或产能整合重组应当符合反垄断法律法规及相关规定。 各省级烟草专卖局： 为落实电子烟产业政策，规范产业运行秩序，综合整治电子烟产业"内卷式"竞争，化解并防范产能过剩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反反复复，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，下周美伊 | | 原油 | 震荡调整 | 将继续谈判，地缘不确定性较大，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩 | | ★ | | 格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩 | | | | 油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹偏强，短期带动气价回升。成本端油价短 | | LPG | | 期受地缘扰动震荡盘整，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求 | | | | 支撑降低；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 上中游库存窄幅波动，装置回归，基差延续偏弱震荡，假期临近，谨慎操 | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 作，关注节后需求验证情况。线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等装 | | | | 置计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 成本端丙烷、丙烯延续 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美国农业部 2 月报告虽上调巴西大豆产量至 1.8 亿吨，但对美豆供需数据未作调整，报告符合 市场预期。美豆走强实源于双重外部预期，一是市场持续交易中国可能额外采购美国大豆的预期，二是美 国政府 3 月初将确定的 2026 年生物燃料强制掺混配额政策，提振豆油及大豆需求前景。国内市场节前备 货结束，下游采购意愿低迷，油厂陆续停机致合同量收紧、部分压车，为豆粕现货提供阶段性支撑，但整 体购销情绪偏淡，且油厂库存偏高、供应宽松格局未改；菜粕受加菜籽进口传闻、澳菜籽压榨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding and end - users are gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are likely to accumulate, with light spot market negotiations. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG**: Due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise at the beginning of the week. From the second half of the month, the arrival of foreign vessels will be more dispersed. Fundamentally, there is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is expected to improve moderately. Overseas device restarts are postponed and new maintenance volumes emerge, and the import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is already at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly maintain range consolidation [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis changed little. This week, transactions were negotiated at a discount of around 75 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5080 - 5145. For the end of February, transactions were at a discount of 57 - 60 to the 05 contract, and for mid - March, at a discount of 43 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 75. The spot price is 5108, the basis of the 05 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. During the day, the spot negotiation was around a discount of 105 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with some contract traders participating in the purchase. The negotiation atmosphere in the market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated little. During the day, the arrival cargo was traded at around 433 - 435 US dollars/ton, and the cargo for the end of February was negotiated at around 445 - 450 US dollars/ton, with a transaction at around 448 US dollars/ton. Some suppliers participated in the purchase. The spot price is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 104, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [7]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The impact of the 700,000 - ton Gulei Petrochemical device's shutdown for maintenance from early March to around the end of April is positive. The resumption of the 1 - million - ton PTA device of Nengtou last week is negative [8][9]. - **MEG**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures price rebound [9]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, domestic utilization rate, and the balance of PX for polyester [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, total consumption, refined consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of supply and consumption [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on market price, production profit, operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and inventory are presented in the form of charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][16][18][21]. - **PTA**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, processing fee, and factory inventory are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [24][27][58][41]. - **MEG**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, profit from different production methods, and port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [30][34][59][41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [51][55]. - **Polyester Fiber**: Data on the production profit of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2023 to 2026 [62][63][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate around driver income in the ride-hailing industry, focusing on platform commission rates and the broader implications of market saturation and supply-demand dynamics on driver earnings [3][9]. Commission Rates and Driver Earnings - Drivers can now view commission rates for each order through the platform's backend, with reported driver income percentages ranging from 73.1% to 100% across different orders [4]. - In 2021, Didi reported that drivers earned 79.1% of the total fare paid by passengers, with the remaining 20.9% allocated to subsidies, operational costs, and net profit [5]. - The average commission rate for Didi's orders is projected to be 14% in 2024 [6]. Financial Data from Platforms - Cao Cao Mobility's prospectus indicates that driver income as a percentage of total service revenue was 84.2% in 2022, dropping to 79.0% by 2024, with corresponding commission rates not exceeding 21% [7]. - The average net commission rates for Shengwei Times' ride-hailing business were reported as 2.9%, 1.1%, -0.2%, and 0.4% for the years 2022 to mid-2025 [7]. Market Dynamics and Driver Sentiment - Drivers express concerns about market saturation and excess supply rather than solely focusing on commission rates, indicating a shift in their priorities [4][10]. - The ride-hailing market is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with increasing competition among drivers leading to a decline in average daily orders per vehicle [12]. Regulatory Actions and Platform Responses - Regulatory bodies have begun addressing issues related to high commission rates and lack of transparency, with measures implemented to prevent order reselling and ensure fair commission structures [8][15]. - In response to regulatory pressure, several platforms, including Didi and T3, have announced reductions in their commission rates, aiming to enhance driver earnings [14]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that while the potential for further price reductions may be limited, there could be initiatives aimed at improving driver income through various measures [13].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate about commission rates in the ride-hailing industry reflects the balance and struggle between drivers, platforms, and regulators, especially as the market transitions from growth to saturation [1][2][3] Group 1: Commission Rates and Driver Income - Recent updates allow drivers to view commission rates for each order, with reported driver income percentages fluctuating between 73.1% and 100% [4] - In 2021, Didi reported that drivers earned 79.1% of the total fare, with the remaining 20.9% allocated to subsidies, operational costs, and profits [5] - Didi's average commission rate for all orders is projected to be 14% in 2024 [7] - Cao Cao Mobility's prospectus indicates that driver income as a percentage of platform revenue was 84.2% in 2022, decreasing to 79.0% by 2024, with corresponding commission rates not exceeding 21% [8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Driver Challenges - Drivers express concerns about market saturation and excess capacity rather than solely focusing on commission rates [3][12] - The number of active drivers is increasing, leading to heightened competition and pressure on driver income, despite a growing demand for ride-hailing services [13][14] - The industry is shifting from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with supply growth outpacing demand [14] Group 3: Regulatory and Platform Responses - In response to driver concerns, platforms like Didi and T3 have announced reductions in commission rates, with Didi planning to lower its maximum commission from 29% to 27% by the end of 2025 [16][17] - Regulatory bodies have been actively addressing high commission rates and ensuring transparency in pricing, with new guidelines being implemented to protect driver rights [19][20] - Analysts suggest that a multi-faceted approach is needed to address pricing issues, including transparent pricing mechanisms and improved regulatory frameworks [20]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has raised hawkish expectations in the market, leading to a stronger dollar and short-term negative impacts on the pricing of base and precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The market's hawkish sentiment is expected to negatively affect the pricing of base and precious metals in the short term [1] - Observations on U.S. Treasury bond fluctuations indicate that the macro narrative is unlikely to reverse in the short term, with precious metals showing more of a pullback after previous trends and risk release [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to be tight by 2026, while palladium is shifting from a decade-long supply deficit to a surplus [1] - From a fundamental perspective, platinum is expected to have a stronger upward drive compared to palladium [1] - Upcoming production guidance from platinum group metal mining companies for 2026 will be crucial to monitor for changes in supply [1]