Report Overview - Report Title: Morning Report - Iron Ore [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [3] - Report Theme: Iron ore - Macro disturbances weaken, and ore prices operate within a range [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro environment enters a window period, and the black series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from external ore supply weakens marginally, and external ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle in August. However, based on the current high profits of blast furnaces and the characteristic that the terminal demand is not weak in the off - season, it is expected that the short - term domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or increase slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures prices will fluctuate at a high level. The price will operate in a range, with the i2601 contract price ranging from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton (the domestic market changes contracts at the beginning of this week), and the foreign FE09 contract price ranging from $98.5 to $103 per ton [4] Summary by Directory Logic - The results of the China - US economic and trade talks basically meet expectations, but the expectation of incremental policies from an important domestic meeting fails. The market enters a short - term policy vacuum period, and the trading focus returns to the industrial fundamentals. The black series as a whole enters a high - level consolidation cycle, and attention should be paid to the cost support of short - process steelmaking [3] Supply - The short - term support from the supply side weakens marginally. External ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments increase, while the shipments from Brazil decrease this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit is relatively considerable. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can remain at a high level in the future [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, the port inventory drops significantly this period. Looking forward, with the increase in shipments and the marginal decrease in pig iron output, it is expected that the short - term inventory will generally tend to be stable or increase slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [5] Group 2: Core View - Short - term macro disturbances have intensified again, with the trading focus returning to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand is in a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expanding. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs News - On June 12, local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China has increased significantly, with a notable increase in Australian shipments, a decline in Brazilian shipments from a high level, and small fluctuations in shipments from non - mainstream countries. In June, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. With the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will weaken marginally [4] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an average daily output of 241.61 this period (month - on - month - 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively good. It is expected that the molten iron will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be small, and high demand supports the price [5] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ores at steel mills has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption has continued to decline but remains at a high level in the same period. With the increase in arrivals and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. Due to the weak market demand expectation, the restocking expectation is weak [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash futures dated June 10, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Report series [2] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - The prices of heavy soda ash in Huazhong, East China, and North China remained unchanged on June 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, while the price in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The prices of light soda ash in Huazhong and North China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price in the Northwest decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [3] - The average price difference between heavy and light soda ash increased by 4 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the SA09 contract price increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1208 yuan/ton, the SA01 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1191 yuan/ton, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1233 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract decreased by 64,797 lots to 1,448,568 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 364,582 lots to 1,382,031 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 149 to 5,495 [3] Basis and Spread - Among the SA09, SA01, and SA05 contracts, the basis of the SA09 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, the basis of the SA01 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 53 yuan/ton, and the basis of the SA05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of SA01 - 05 remained unchanged at -42 yuan/ton, the spread of SA05 - 09 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the spread of SA09 - 01 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly production of soda ash was 704,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [3] - The operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, a week - on - week increase of 2.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61% [3] - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year increase of 98.85% [3] - The apparent demand for soda ash was 701,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.01% [3] - The profit of the combined soda process was 178 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 80.59% [3] - The profit of the ammonia - soda process was 49.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.62% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 2 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton, the price of light soda ash in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash was 49 yuan/ton [5] Important Information - As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6783 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons or 3.15% from the previous Thursday [6] - The domestic soda ash market was weakly sorted, and the trading center moved down. The soda ash plant had small fluctuations, with Jiangsu Huachang starting operation and the output gradually increasing. The downstream demand was average, the profit level of some industries was average, and their own inventory was at a high level. The procurement sentiment for soda ash was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on low - price and on - demand [6] Logic Analysis - Today, macro - level disturbances were greater than industry - level factors, and the market was concerned about the results of further Sino - US negotiations [7] - On the supply side, the old line of Haihua will start operation tomorrow, Shaanxi Xinghua may have maintenance at the end of the month, and Jiangsu Kunshan is expected to have maintenance on the 19th. The daily output of soda ash remains unchanged at 107,000 tons [7] - On the demand side, short - term demand was stable, but there were medium - term concerns. The output of float glass and photovoltaic glass still had room to decline, especially the concern about the cold repair of float glass affected the demand for soda ash [7] - On the cost side, the market began to think that the room for further decline in the raw material side was limited. Ammonium chloride may weaken seasonally, but the losses of ammonia - soda and combined soda processes were not deep enough to stimulate market clearance, and maintenance was only temporary [7] - In terms of time, the rainy season and off - season were approaching, and it was difficult for demand to increase. The natural market clearance of supply depends on profit and cycle [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Macro factors were dominant, the game between long and short positions intensified. From a fundamental perspective, the price still had room to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Global central banks have cut interest rates, while the Fed maintains its policy. The US economy shows resilience, but the labor market and re - inflation face challenges. Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, with both sides being tough before the talks [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price, but the shortage persists. Philippine shipments are delayed. In April, electrolytic nickel production exceeded expectations, narrowing in May. Stainless - steel inventory is high, suppressing May production. Nickel sulfate production is increasing, and the downstream ternary product structure is shifting to high - nickel, with expected growth in new - energy consumption [3]. - Outlook: There is no obvious change expected in the fundamentals. A weakening nickel ore price may drag down the nickel price. Attention should be focused on the impact of Sino - US trade talks on macro expectations. Although refined nickel production declined in May, it remains high. Nickel sulfate demand is rising but with a limited share. High stainless - steel inventory restricts production, and the fundamentals may not improve significantly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 124,630 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan/ton; LME nickel price rose from 15,698 dollars/ton to 15,804 dollars/ton, an increase of 106 dollars/ton [5]. - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,748 tons to 197,670 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 699 tons to 23,426 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium dropped from 2,400 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton; Russian nickel premium rose from 200 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price dropped from 980 yuan/nickel point to 960 yuan/nickel point; stainless - steel inventory increased from 94.3 tons to 95.1 tons [5]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore dropped from 51 dollars/wet ton to 48.5 dollars/wet ton, while the Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price rose from 47.6 dollars/wet ton to 48.6 dollars/wet ton [6]. - Indonesia's May (Phase I) nickel ore domestic benchmark price is 15,049.23 dollars/wet ton, a decrease of about 3.16% from April (Phase II). The tight supply may ease with the recovery of Philippine shipments, and the ore price may decline [6]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 968.5 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [7]. - In May, China's nickel pig iron production was 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In March, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%. Indonesia's April nickel - iron production was expected to be 143,300 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.19% and a month - on - month increase of 1.19% [7]. - In May, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was expected to be about 1.78 million tons, 4 tons more than last year. As of April 30, domestic stainless - steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [7]. Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate price rose from 28,080 yuan/ton to 28,115 yuan/ton; electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained at 30,750 yuan/ton [8]. - In May, the expected nickel metal output of nickel sulfate was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The production of ternary materials increased month - on - month, with a shift from low - nickel to high - nickel products [8]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis Macro - The Fed maintained its interest rate in May. The US economy shows resilience, but there are pressures in the employment market and re - inflation. The market expects the Fed to start the first round of interest rate cuts in July [9]. - Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, and the UK - US trade agreement has been reached. Trump stated that the UK agreement is not a template, and other countries may face higher tariffs. The attitudes of both sides before the Sino - US talks are tough [9]. Fundamental - Supply - In May, domestic nickel production capacity was stable, but smelter production declined. In April, the actual output was 36,300 tons, slightly exceeding expectations. The expected output in May was 35,350 tons. In March, domestic electrolytic nickel exports were about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53% [9]. - As of May 9, the export profit of Chinese nickel was 242.59 dollars/ton. There is no new production capacity in May, and social inventory is high. High - ice nickel has a high cost of producing electrolytic nickel and flows more to the nickel sulfate market [9]. Fundamental - Consumption - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million, a year - on - year increase of 37% [10]. - The new - energy vehicle sales in April fluctuated greatly. The sales from April 28 - 30 increased significantly, but the consumption heat did not continue during the May Day holiday. The new - energy vehicle sales growth may decline in the future [10]. Fundamental - Inventory - The total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions was 44,088 tons, a decrease of 2,822 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory was 23,426 tons, a decrease of 699 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 197,670 tons, a decrease of 2,748 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 221,096 tons, a decrease of 3,447 tons [11]. 4. Industry News - An Indonesian nickel plant has resumed production after a landslide. Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price in May [13]. - Ivanhoe's subsidiary has achieved a major milestone in the Flatreef ore body. EV Nickel plans to mine 1.6 billion pounds of nickel in 20 years. First Atlantic Nickel has received a $150,000 grant [13].

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]

节前一周现货铝价上涨。截至5月2日，LME3个月铝收盘价为2432美元/吨，较4月30日收盘 价上涨1.3%。供应方面：节前一周山东地区继续向云南地区转移电解铝产能，广西地区电 解铝企业继续复产，节前一周电解铝行业理论开工产能较上周相比继续小幅增加。需求方 面：节前一周铝棒行业产量减少，减量主要体现在甘肃、四川地区，铝板行业产量较上周持 平，节前一周电解铝理论需求有所减少。库存方面：节前一周LME铝库存较上周减少，目 前LME铝库41.96万吨，较上周42.56万吨减少0.6万吨。中国方面，节前一周铝锭社会库存持 续减少，目前库存67.4万吨，较上周68.89万吨减少1.49万吨。建议关注：中孚实业、神火股 份、云铝股份、中国宏桥、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、五矿资源。 天风证券近日发布金属与材料行业研究周报：4月30日：1）美国一季度GDP转向负增 长；2）美国3月通胀指标意外降温；3）紫金矿业拟分拆境外黄金资产赴港上市；4）美乌签 署矿产协议。5月1日：1）美国4月制造业PMI大幅萎缩；2）美国对加拿大和墨西哥制造的 汽车零部件豁免关税；3）日本央行维持利率不变。5月2日：美国4月非农就业超预期。 以下为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the "production cut" driving force has cooled down, and the disk profit has declined. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement stage. It is recommended to reduce the single - side exposure and hold a light position during the May Day holiday [4]. - For coking coal and coke, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of top - charged coke, and coking coal auctions continue to weaken. It is recommended to short coal and coke on rallies in May and hold a light position during the holiday [5]. - For ferroalloys, the production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron supply and demand are tightening, while manganese - silicon is still in an oversupply state. It is recommended that industrial customers control risks and silicon - iron can be tried to go long at low prices [7]. - For iron ore, the "small essays" dominate the disk trading logic again. It is not recommended to hold long iron ore orders under the production - limit expectation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On April 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3128 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.29%), HC2601 at 3238 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan, - 1.04%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan, - 1.21%), HC2510 at 3210 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.26%), etc. [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On April 29, RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), etc. [2] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On April 29, the coil - rebar spread was 110 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the rebar - ore ratio was 4.37 (down 0.03), etc. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: On April 29, Shanghai rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), etc. [2] Specific Commodities - **Rebar**: The "production cut" speculation has cooled down, prices and disk profits have declined. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to cut the coke price, coking coal auctions are weak. The fundamentals may weaken in May, and shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: The production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron is in a better fundamental state, and it is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The "small essays" affect the market. High - level hot metal provides some support, but long positions are not recommended under the production - limit expectation [8].

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...