光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) are mainly "oscillation". Coking coal has a short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, with an overall "oscillation" approach. Coke also has short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, following an "oscillation" approach [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: In March and April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment was relatively stable with high production levels. In March, Shanxi's raw coal production increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to run at a high level with expected year - on - year positive growth. Also, Mongolia coal imports in April improved compared to March. The supply of coking coal remains loose with a bearish fundamental. The latest quotation of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1008 yuan/ton. Due to strong macro disturbances and increased long - short game, the main contract of coking coal maintains low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to domestic demand - boosting policies [5]. Coke - **Core Logic**: This week, coke shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the main futures contract maintains low - level oscillation. However, there are strong macro disturbances. There are repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April with high uncertainty, and China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected. The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro policies. In the long - run, the cost drag from loose coking coal supply and concerns about terminal demand limit the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro disturbances and marginal improvement in coke's own fundamentals support the price. The main coke contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to domestic policy [6].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.17%，报收 69.15 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.58%，报收 12990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1639 手 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14188 元/吨，较前一日增加 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普释放中美关税政策缓和 | | | | 信号，美元指数自低位回升，昨日重心略有下移，ICE 美棉期价震荡运行，预计短 | | | | 期宏观扰动仍存。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势，市场情绪影响仍 | | | | 然较大。展望未来，我们认为本年度最艰难时刻大概率已经度过，中美关税较此前 | | | | 再度增加概率偏低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应端扰动不大，下游 | | | | 需求虽相对有限，但能看到棉花商业库存在逐渐下 ...

Group 1: Research Views - ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.11% to 67.11 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 rose 0.16% to 12,890 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,061 lots to 512,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,032 yuan per ton, down 97 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,200 yuan per ton, down 52 yuan from the previous day. Short - term Zheng cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1]. - The spot sugar quotes in Guangxi were 6,130 - 6,240 yuan per ton, with some up 20 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan were 5,940 - 6,000 yuan per ton, up 10 - 30 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price rebounded. Domestically, the spot quotes rose slightly yesterday. In the short term, it will follow the raw sugar's rebound, but in the medium term, with the import window open, the price will fluctuate [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 195, down 20; the main contract basis was 1,310, down 112. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,032, down 97, and the national spot price was 14,200, down 52 [2]. - For sugar, the 5 - 9 contract spread was 174, down 6; the main contract basis was 234, down 12. The Nanning spot price was 6,170, up 40, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,150, unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On April 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,833, an increase of 118 from the previous trading day, with 2,828 valid forecasts [3]. - On April 17, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,032 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,174 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,283 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,203 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On April 17, the yarn comprehensive load was 55.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 21.3, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 54.4, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.7, up 0.1 [3]. - On April 17, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,170 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. - On April 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,410, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 1,366 valid forecasts [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won multiple analyst titles [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile category senior analyst title in 2024 [21].