Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the fiscal data for October shows a slight narrowing in the year-on-year growth rate of tax revenue, with consumption-related tax categories maintaining a positive contribution [2][6][7] - It is anticipated that incremental policies will be expected towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year to support economic growth [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In October, total public fiscal revenue reached 22,614 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at 20,700 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [6][7] - Non-tax revenue fell to 1,914 billion yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline [6][7] - The domestic value-added tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, which boosted the overall tax revenue growth by 3.0 percentage points [7] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was 17,761 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in spending [7][8] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue was 342 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was 3,414 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year [8] - The income from state-owned land use rights fell by 27.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting local government fund revenue [8] - Government fund expenditure totaled 5,968 billion yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year, with local government fund expenditure declining by 40.4% [8] Economic Growth Support - The report notes that the fiscal expenditure and financing pace have been front-loaded this year, supporting economic performance, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - The upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" in the new year are expected to provide important guidance on fiscal and policy financial tools [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/18 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Premier Li Qiang has no plans to meet Japanese leaders during G20 Summit. ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts have weakened further, with operating rates for asphalt, cement dispatch, and grinding mills dropping to historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at historical highs and PTA rates at historical mid-lows[2] - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and gold have shown weak fluctuations, while aluminum prices have risen[3] - Domestic industrial prices are mixed, with black metals and coal prices recovering, while chemical products have mostly declined[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a significant year-on-year decline, with a 24% drop in transaction area for major cities compared to the previous two weeks[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 16% in Beijing and Shanghai, and 33% in Shenzhen compared to 2024[4] Exports - Port throughput increased by 4.8% year-on-year in early November, with export growth projected at approximately 9.6%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuating funding rates, with the R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.47% as of November 14[5] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 19,808 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[5] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and policy measures exceeding expectations[5]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Due to macro - negative factors and insufficient demand, the upward movement of Shanghai Aluminum faces obstacles. Although it may continue its short - term volatile upward trend, it may face pressure in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Related Content Market Environment - The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to drop below 50%, leading to rising risk aversion and weakening of risk assets. The market is generally weak, with the US dollar rising and the RMB falling, and non - ferrous metals mostly declining [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725, and the spot price was 21,630, with a spot - to - futures premium of - 95 points. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose and then fell, with the spot premium remaining at - 20 yuan. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was stable, alumina inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly. LME inventory increased, and the LME spot premium widened to - 28 US dollars [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil tumbled, and LME Aluminum declined slightly, trading around 2,850 US dollars. Shanghai Aluminum fell, closing at 21,725, with a weakening technical pattern. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased, indicating significant market divergence [4] Market Sentiment and Outlook - After the hype of anti - involution subsided, alumina oscillated at a low level. With the easing of trade disputes, unclear situation in Russia - Ukraine, and rising energy prices, market sentiment was relatively strong. After the hype of gold and copper decreased, small metals were favored by funds. The short - term volatile upward trend of Shanghai Aluminum will continue, but it may face pressure in the medium term due to insufficient spot demand. The future focus is on whether Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate with copper prices and the spot demand situation [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | - 20 | - 16 | 7.54 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | - 10 | - 24 | 7.56 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 10 | - 28 | 7.58 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | - 20 | - 26 | 7.60 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | - 20 | - 28 | 7.65 | [5]

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation growth rate has declined, with cumulative coal-fired power generation down 2.7% year-on-year as of November 6, compared to a 6.2% increase in October [1][6] - Industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with upstream steel and coking rates declining, while downstream weaving rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased [2][7] - As of the second week of November, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7][8] Group 2: Steel Production and Construction Activity - Key steel mills reported a month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 1.4% decrease recorded as of November 10 [2][9] - The construction sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with the asphalt operating rate falling by 3.9 percentage points month-on-month as of November 12 [2][11] - Cement dispatch rates decreased to 33.4%, down 4.3 percentage points month-on-month as of November 7 [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - Passenger vehicle retail sales saw a significant year-on-year decline of 19% from November 1 to 9, with wholesale sales down 22% [4][18] - Real estate sales are weak, with a 38.4% year-on-year drop in average daily transactions for commercial housing in 30 major cities from November 1 to 16 [3][15] - Home appliance sales continue to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant drops [4][19][20] Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - Port container throughput remained stable year-on-year, with a 6.5% increase from November 3 to 9, similar to October's growth [4][21] - Data on container shipments to the U.S. showed a significant decline, with the number of ships and tonnage down 26.8% and 30.2% respectively as of November 13 [4][21] Group 5: Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) has continued to rise, with energy and non-food prices showing upward trends [5][24][25] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate price has significantly increased due to rising energy storage demand, reflecting a broader trend in the new manufacturing sector [5][26] - Consumer price indices for non-food items have shown fluctuations, with some categories experiencing price increases [5][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economic data continued to decline, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. However, there were improvement signals in CPI and PPI, and the M1 growth rate remained high. The domestic economy's recovery was a long - term process, and the real estate market's transformation and adjustment also took time. The "Expand domestic demand, Anti - involution" policy would be an important long - term measure. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment was continuously improving. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward repair trend [3][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity declined. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises all decreased and were below the critical point. Among the 5 classification indexes, the supplier delivery time index was at the critical point, while the production, new orders, raw material inventory, and employment indexes were all below the critical point [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in October was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points. The decline in manufacturing PMI indicated insufficient demand and weak economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. CPI and PPI - In October 2025, the national CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year, while non - food prices increased. Other than food and tobacco, six of the seven major categories of prices increased year - on - year, and one decreased [8][9]. - The national PPI decreased 2.1% year - on - year in October, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers also showed similar trends. The "Anti - involution" policy had achieved some results, and the PPI was expected to turn positive in 2026 [11][12]. 3. Import and Export - In October 2025, China's exports decreased 1.1% year - on - year, imports increased 1.0% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $900.7 billion. Exports to the US decreased, while exports to ASEAN increased. Despite the poor performance in October, exports were expected to remain strong in 2025, and the real risk for foreign trade was the potential decline in global demand [14][16]. 4. Credit and Money Supply - At the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The increment of social financing scale in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The overall credit in October was weak, indicating insufficient credit confidence and demand from residents and enterprises. Although the issuance of government bonds slowed down, the M1 growth rate remained high, and the macro - liquidity improved [18][22]. 5. Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment - In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased 2.9% year - on - year. Consumption growth continued to decline, and the growth rates of automobile, catering, and real - estate - related consumption were weak. From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 1.7% year - on - year, and the growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [23][26]. 6. Real Estate Market - From January to October, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the decline continued to expand in October. The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate were at a low level. The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, but it was expected to stop falling and stabilize in the first half of 2026 [27][33]. 7. Summary and Outlook - In general, the macro - economic performance in October was weak, but there were improvement signals in inflation indicators and M1. The "Expand domestic demand, Anti - involution" policy was crucial. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025. It was necessary to track policy implementation, observe price recovery, and wait for positive macro - economic signals [34][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift in young people's perception of intimate relationships from a "must-have" to an "optional" aspect of life, reflecting a desire for authenticity and a rejection of societal pressures [2] - The F&M Innovation Festival features a series of discussions addressing various aspects of young people's lives, including emotional needs, workplace dynamics, and self-identity in the context of technological advancements [2][3] - The "Open Dialogue" session will explore the underlying psychological and social factors contributing to the phenomenon of "sexual decline" among young people, emphasizing a collective awakening of self-needs [30] Group 2 - The "Technology Dimension" discussion will focus on the intersection of technological development and individual value, encouraging participants to find their unique position within the broader narrative of technological change [3] - The "Health Dimension" session will delve into how health data can redefine self-perception, offering insights on regaining control over one's life through quantifiable health metrics [6] - The "Commercial Dimension" conversation will highlight personal growth through brand development, providing inspiration for both newcomers in the workforce and entrepreneurs [10] Group 3 - The "Reality Dimension" discussion will tackle the pressing issues faced by young people, such as high housing prices and employment challenges, offering practical strategies for navigating these difficulties [19] - The "Outdoor Dimension" session aims to inspire participants to embrace adventure and self-discovery through outdoor activities, encouraging a break from urban constraints [15] - The "Economic Dimension" dialogue will analyze macroeconomic trends and opportunities for young people, focusing on career planning and international expansion [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].