Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US is experiencing reduced uncertainty in economic growth due to the resolution of tariff negotiations with major trading partners, but inflation concerns are resurfacing[1] - Global inflation risks are increasing, potentially reversing expectations for interest rate cuts, which may impact financial markets in August and September[1] - The US government recorded a fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first surplus in June in nearly eight years, which may alleviate some fiscal pressure from tax cuts[8] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economic stabilization in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by increased fiscal spending and rapid export growth, but the real estate sector continues to face contraction pressures[1] - The "anti-involution" policy may become a central theme in the second half of the year, potentially improving market supply-demand relationships and restoring market confidence[1] - Real estate sales in the first half of 2025 saw a significant decline, with new residential prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month in June[14] Group 3: Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets have been the main source of profit in July, buoyed by positive sentiment from US-EU trade agreements, offsetting declines in domestic and international bond markets[2] - The strategy for August maintains the July allocations, with a focus on hedging positions in Japanese and Italian stocks against German stocks, while being bearish on the international bond market[2] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil, have seen seasonal increases, while gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties[2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng - Contact Information: Tel: 021 - 53686158; E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com; SAC No.: S0870523100004 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The report continues to be bullish on the bond market and A - share structural opportunities, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [12] Core Viewpoints - Continue to be optimistic about the bond market and A - share structural opportunities. The rapid price increase of commodities such as coal, steel, and building materials is due to the dual positive catalysts of the increasing expectation of supply - side reform and the incremental demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not substantially affected by the commodity price increase, and the short - term adjustment provides an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce some growth - stabilizing policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a high level. There are still investment opportunities in structural sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **US Stocks**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% in the same period [2] - **A - Shares**: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 2.36%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 2.85% [3] - **Industry Performance**: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 industries declined and 26 industries rose. The leading industries were coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains of more than 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains of more than 7% [4] Bond Market - **Domestic Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 6.72 BP to 1.7324% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [5] - **Funding Price**: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025; DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP, and the spread between the two increased. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan in the past week [6] - **Bond Market Leverage**: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of the inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025 [7] - **US Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025), the long - term US Treasury bond yields decreased while the short - term yields increased. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4 BP to 4.40%. The yield curve became flatter [8][9] Foreign Exchange and Commodities - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (July 21 - 27, 2025). The US dollar exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar exchange rates against the offshore and onshore RMB decreased by 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - **Gold**: The international gold price fell, with the London gold spot price falling 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price falling 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. The domestic gold price rose, with the Shanghai gold spot price rising 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. Sino - US trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and the follow - up progress is worthy of attention [11]

| 震荡 < G > 、西南地区零星复产。2、多晶硅有减产预期。3、市场情绪高 | 工业硅 | 1、市场有光伏供给侧改革预期。2、市场情绪高。 | 多晶硅 | 看多 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、资源端扰动频发。2、下游短期补库量大,后续补库空间有 | 碳酸锂 | 有关 | 限。3、市场情绪高 | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 热卷 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | | | 铁矿石 | 情绪降温,关注焦煤的企稳 | 震荡 | - END | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 锰硅 | 看多 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 88岁 | 任铁 | 看多 | 瑞包金属 | 看多 | 供给侧改革再启动,价格将继续偏强。 | 玻璃 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 年碱 | 看头 | 高层会议提及"反内卷"，市场期待15年供给侧改革牛市，虽然 | | | | | 从各方面都无法相提并论,不过鉴于交易层面短期无法证伪,盘 | 售煤 | 農汤 | ...

Macro - Hainan's customs closure represents a systematic breakthrough rather than a simple upgrade of the free trade zone, impacting four main areas: creating a consumer ecosystem that integrates culture, sports, commerce, and tourism; exploring new channels for foreign investors to enter the domestic market, which is a key step in the internationalization of the RMB; continuously optimizing the institutional environment, business conditions, and tax incentives, significantly enhancing attractiveness to global investors; and transforming trade structure towards high value-added directions, upgrading trade facilitation, and actively aligning with high-standard economic and trade rules [4]. Steel - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2015 Revision)" on February 8, 2025, leading to the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)," with a focus on orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This aligns with the broader policy goal of supply-side reform adapting better to demand changes, suggesting that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book ratio of steel stocks may also recover accordingly [4]. - On July 25, the exchange announced that non-futures company members or clients could not exceed a daily opening position of 500 lots for the JM2509 contract and 2000 lots for other contracts, advising caution against significant price fluctuations in futures [4]. Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has reached a near four-year low for the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation. Demand is expected to be weak in Q3, leading to short-term price fluctuations. However, with the anticipated recovery in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, along with the gradual resolution of trade conflicts, copper prices are expected to rise in Q4 [5][6]. Basic Chemicals - The chemical industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with a focus on supply-side reforms driven by the exit of outdated production capacity. Key sub-sectors such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments and dyes, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC are highlighted for their supply-side reform and capacity elimination, with leading companies likely to benefit [6]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - In Q2, production capacity saw a slight recovery, with average weights and inventory levels increasing. As of July 25, the national average price for external three-yuan pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.84% week-on-week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, down 0.22% week-on-week. The average weight of market pigs was 128.48 kg, down 0.35 kg week-on-week, and the national frozen product inventory rate was 14.46%, up 0.1 percentage points [7]. Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - In the photovoltaic sector, the price support measures and the feasibility of the "storage" plan will determine the stock price trends of related companies. Although trading limits on "coking coal" and "lithium carbonate" have begun to be implemented, the theme of "de-involution" remains strong in the short term. In the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower sector, the total investment for downstream hydropower projects is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, with a focus on the GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment, which has an investment scale comparable to that of hydropower turbines [8]. Pharmaceuticals - The recent collection policy is reshaping the industry ecosystem, with high-quality companies facing value reassessment. The innovative pharmaceutical sector is supported by multi-level policies, indicating strong growth momentum [8].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend for the Hang Seng Index, which is expected to reach 27,500 points by the end of December 2025, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 12.2 times [2][30] - The Chinese decision-makers are expected to implement incremental policies to strengthen domestic circulation, promote supply-side reforms, and expand domestic consumption demand [2][30] - The report highlights attractive valuation levels in the current Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that the market is currently in a historically lower valuation range compared to previous years [2][31] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed other major global markets, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20.0% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 18.68% [3][4] - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors showed strong performance, with respective increases of 47.7%, 45.6%, and 29.8% [4][7] - The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares has decreased, indicating a narrowing gap in valuations between the two markets [4][16] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in areas such as supply-side reform, infrastructure development, and consumer-driven companies, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [2][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading consumer companies and domestic brands that are benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution processes [2][30] - The ongoing infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the largest hydropower station in China, are expected to benefit related sectors, including construction, machinery, and materials [2][38] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong capital market remains liquid, with significant inflows from southbound trading, which accounted for 22.1% of total market turnover by June 30, 2025 [17][23] - The report indicates that the IPO financing amount in Hong Kong reached $141 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 695% year-on-year increase, positioning Hong Kong as the top global IPO market [17][23] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical risks on market sentiment, noting that companies with mainland backgrounds dominate the Hong Kong market, comprising 80.97% of total market capitalization [24]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观政策刺激尿素大涨，但警惕情绪反转 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观政策刺激尿素大涨，但警惕情绪反转 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）尿素产量135.47万吨，较上周减少1.40吨，环比跌1.02%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周减少0.20万吨。周期内山东、河南等省产量有一定增加，产量 有减少的省份是陕西、山西、安徽等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.59%，环比跌0.87%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在山东、河南等，环比开工下降的 | | | | 省份在陕西、吉林、安徽等。 | | | | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量820吨，较上周增加20吨，环比涨2.50%。目前复合肥成品出货仍一般化，开工小幅提升中，尿素采购方面 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 逢低持续进行中。（2）尿素企业预收订单天数5.94日，较上周期减少0.12日，环比减少1.98%。本周期国内尿素行情继续偏弱震荡，国内需求走弱，但又 有宏观政策利好，市场情绪翻转较 ...

Daily Spotlight 28 July 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,388 | (1.1) | 26.6 | | HSCEI | 9,150 | (1.2) | 25.5 | | HSCCI | 4,322 | (0.3) | 14.3 | | MSCI HK | 13,154 | (0.8) | 24.5 | | MSCI CHINA | 81 | (1.1) | 25.0 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 13,965 | (0.6) | 3.3 | | CSI 300 | 4,127 | (0.5) | 4.9 | | TWSE | 23,364 | (0.0) | 1.4 | | SENSEX | 82,184 | (0.7) | 5.2 | | NIKKEI 225 | 41,456 | (0.9) | 3.9 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong over the market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is required on the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading in the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index reported a performance increase of 2.58%, closing at 2331.15 points, while other petrochemical sectors saw a rise of 6.83% [5] - Energy prices are stable with a slight decline, as U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed results [6][11] - Polyester filament prices have increased, with price differentials also rising, while the inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, and the operating rate of weaving machines has declined [14][19] - Sample polyolefin spot prices remained stable, with a decrease in inventory [22][25] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices are stable with a slight decline, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $68.78 per barrel and €32.29 per MWh, down 0.8% and 4.2% respectively [8] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 5,153 thousand barrels to 1,250,684 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament have risen, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton respectively, with price differentials increasing by 133 yuan per ton [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 20.3, 38.1, and 15.5 days for FDY, DTY, and POY respectively, with operating rates of 92.1% and 55.6% for polyester filament and downstream weaving machines [21] Olefins - Sample polyolefin spot prices are stable, with PE and PP prices at 7,700 and 8,140 yuan per ton, showing a change of 0% and -0.73% respectively [25] - The petrochemical inventory for polyolefins is 730,000 tons, down by 40,000 tons from the previous week [25]

长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-7-28 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 研 究 员：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 投资咨询号:Z0021169 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：弱现实强预期，维持近弱远强 u 期现端：截至7月25日，全国现货价格14.81元/公斤，较上周持平；河南猪价14.18元/公斤，较上周价格下跌0.19元/公斤；生猪2509报价14385元/吨，较上周上涨250 元/吨；09合约基差-205元/吨，较上周下跌440元/吨。周度生猪价格先涨后跌，小幅调整，周初价格低位养殖端抗价惜售，二育逢低介入，带动价格触底反弹，周中后 期集团增量、散户出栏积极性增强，而终端消费疲软，供强需弱压制价格走低；盘面因周三要召开生猪行业高质量会议，供给侧改革预期炒作，资金看涨情绪高涨，周初 价格大幅拉涨，随着会议内容明确，涉及疫情防控、产能调控、低蛋白日粮、育种、规范屠宰等，围绕行业高质量发展，产能调控措施与前 ...