Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and BR is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic inventory has further declined since early October due to the temporary slowdown of domestic arrivals and the rebound of downstream tire operating rates, leading to a faster outbound rate than the inbound rate at ports. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, driving the continuous rebound of downstream tire operating rates. The cost - side support of natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase during the peak season. The overall domestic supply and demand may show a pattern of strong growth on both sides. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and there is a demand for price rebound under a warm macro - environment. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, there are still many devices under maintenance, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom support for BR prices, but the weak upstream butadiene prices drag down the cost [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 225 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,930 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - **Natural rubber imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thai natural rubber exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] - **Automobile production and sales**: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - **Rubber tire exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] - **EU passenger car market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 275), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 470 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,136 yuan/ton (- 3,135.67), the NR basis was 727.00 yuan/ton (+ 58.00); the price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton (- 220), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,730 yuan/ton (- 220) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.99 Thai baht/kg (- 0.83), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 2.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45) [5] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+ 2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2,003 yuan/ton (- 49) [6] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.77% (- 4.93%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [7]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans may slow down the domestic de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. - For sugar, the tightening of syrup and premix import controls drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound, and it is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2910 yuan/ton, the transaction volume at 145,000 tons, and the delivery volume at 196,400 tons. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36%, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a neutral level [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans is mainly oscillating. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the export volume from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4%, and the export volume from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71%, and the production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63%. The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market, and there are rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were stable. The customs has tightened the import control of Thai syrup and premix, with the number of suspended enterprises increasing from 35 to 44, and the scope of suspension expanding [9]. - **Strategy**: The tightening of import controls drives the rebound of sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the basis was 1243 yuan/ton. The China - US economic and trade teams reached some consensus in the negotiations, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US on Chinese goods [12]. - **Strategy**: The demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.88 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were average. It is expected that the national egg prices will mostly remain stable and a few areas may have narrow adjustments today [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends with more price - falling areas. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is not high, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing decreases after the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with a weak trend today [18]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently suggest short - term waiting and observing to see if OPEC's exports decline when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, with high port inventories, increasing supply, and weakening demand, the high - inventory issue may lead to further price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. There is limited upward momentum, and the price downside is also restricted. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. - For rubber, the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices are falling, but the high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [18][19]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [20][22]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, there is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [25][26]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 0.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.07% decline, at 458.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 40.00 yuan/ton, a 1.43% decline, at 2751.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase, at 3255.00 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, a 1.62% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 409.10 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, a 2.74% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, a 2.91% decline; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 21.80 million barrels, a 0.58% decline; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 41.42 million barrels, a 3.52% decline [7]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 49 yuan, reporting 2208 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 12, reporting - 76 [2]. - **Strategy**: The port price is falling rapidly, and the inventory is high and difficult to reduce. Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: The spot price in Shandong remained flat, that in Henan remained stable, and that in Hubei decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan, reporting 1627 yuan, with a basis of - 57. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, reporting - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the downstream demand is following up. The market is in a relatively loose pattern. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The stock index and industrial products declined, and the rubber price also followed suit. The long and short sides have different views. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week and down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 63.9 tons, a 0.3% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 40 tons, a 2% decline; the inventory in Qingdao was 42.41 (- 0.34) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 9 yuan, reporting 4766 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (+ 40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+ 49) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decline; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.4%, a 0.3% decline; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.6%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons (- 2.7), and the social inventory was 103.5 tons (+ 0.1) [11]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export outlook is poor in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are both falling. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6968 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was 22 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. The production enterprise inventory was 51.46 tons, a 1.49 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.04 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, an 0.83% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6651 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6630 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 63.85 tons, a 4.02 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 22.00 tons, a 1.86 - ton decline; the port inventory was 6.68 tons, a 0.11 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 317 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [20][21]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [22]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract decreased by 64 yuan, reporting 6588 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar, reporting 817 dollars. The basis was 85 yuan (+ 58), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+ 14). The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase from the previous month [24]. - **Strategy**: With high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 66 yuan, reporting 4570 yuan. The East China spot price remained flat, reporting 4535 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 8). The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 157 yuan, and the futures - market processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 248 yuan [25]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract decreased by 68 yuan, reporting 4032 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 5 yuan, reporting 4147 yuan. The basis was 78 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (- 8). The supply - side load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and the East China departure on October 29 was 1 ton. The port inventory was 52.3 tons, a 5.6 - ton decline [27]. - **Strategy**: There is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has slightly declined, but low downstream开工 rates of styrene, CPL, and adipic acid have dragged down demand, leading to a continuously weak port basis. Domestic pure benzene开工 has also decreased, and the impact of previous sanctions on some refinery loads can be resolved by switching crude oil resources [3] - For styrene, despite short - term maintenance, port inventory has not been reduced, and there is still pressure. New device startups such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical have had an impact. Downstream开工 has changed little, but提货 is average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers is still high, so the port inventory pressure of EB persists [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report mentions figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the basis of pure benzene futures contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the spread between consecutive contracts of pure benzene and EB [8][11][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Information on production profits and internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene is provided, such as styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][22][30] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory,开工 Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 8.50 million tons (- 1.40 million tons), and its开工 rate has declined. Styrene port inventory is still under pressure, with East China port inventory at 193,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and its开工 rate is 69.3% (- 2.6%) [1][3][34] IV. Styrene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 255 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 61.98% (- 0.54%); PS production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 53.80% (+ 0.00%); ABS production profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 72.80% (- 0.30%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - For pure benzene downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1850 yuan/ton (+ 35), with an开工 rate of 88.89% (- 3.52%); phenol - acetone production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0), with an开工 rate of 78.00% (+ 0.00%); aniline production profit is 1050 yuan/ton (+ 224), with an开工 rate of 76.48% (+ 0.75%); adipic acid production profit is - 1165 yuan/ton (- 23), with an开工 rate of 55.80% (- 3.30%) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, go long on the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) [4]

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory declined slightly. Low开工 rates of downstream styrene, CPL, and adipic acid dragged down demand, leading to a weak port basis. The domestic开工 rate of pure benzene decreased at an accelerating pace, and attention should be paid to the impact of European and American sanctions on Russian oil on refinery loads [3]. - For styrene, there were still short - term maintenance plans, and new device launches such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical had an impact. Downstream开工 changed little, but提货 was average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics remained high, resulting in continuous port inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene. Also, EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene are presented [8][12][17] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures show naphtha processing fees, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the spread between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the spread between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the spread between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][25][31] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures display pure benzene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, styrene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the开工 rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [53][55][58] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the开工 rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [61][64][76] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, buy the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) at low levels [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -610 with the spot at 14750, showing a bearish signal. Exchange and Qingdao region inventories are decreasing week - on - week, with the former also decreasing year - on - year and the latter increasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 28 [8] Inventory - Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao region inventories are also continuously decreasing [14][17] Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are also at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on October 28 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have increased month-on-month, while international natural gas prices have also risen. As of October 24, the domestic LNG ex-factory price was 4274.00 CNY/ton, up by 257 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.40% month-on-month, but down by 662.00 CNY/ton, a decline of 13.41% year-on-year [2][8] - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China decreased month-on-month in September, but showed a year-on-year increase. The apparent consumption was 35.326 billion cubic meters, down by 1.358 billion cubic meters, a decline of 3.70% month-on-month, but up by 0.483 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.39% year-on-year [17] Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices increased month-on-month, while year-on-year prices decreased. The price as of October 24 was 4274.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.41% [2][8] 2. Supply and Demand - In September, China's natural gas production decreased month-on-month to 596,680 tons, down by 105,710 tons, a decline of 15.05%. The apparent consumption was 35.326 billion cubic meters, down by 1.358 billion cubic meters, a decline of 3.70% month-on-month, but up by 0.483 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.39% year-on-year [16][17] 3. Inventory - As of October 17, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory (excluding propane/propylene) was 203,244 thousand barrels, up by 1,788 thousand barrels, an increase of 0.89% month-on-month, and up by 28,289 thousand barrels, an increase of 16.17% year-on-year. European natural gas inventory as of October 22 was 94.564 billion kWh, up by 11.76 billion kWh, an increase of 1.26% month-on-month, but down by 14.752 billion kWh, a decline of 13.50% year-on-year [3][21][25] 4. Imports and Exports - In September, European natural gas imports totaled 193,718.84 million cubic meters, down by 4,882.90 million cubic meters, a decline of 2.46% month-on-month, but up by 60,915.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 45.87% year-on-year. Imports from Russia decreased significantly, totaling 10,110.10 million cubic meters, down by 2,352.70 million cubic meters, a decline of 18.88% month-on-month, and down by 8,991.50 million cubic meters, a decline of 47.07% year-on-year [26][30]