Economic Events and Data Summary - Key focus on various economic indicators and events scheduled for July 3rd, including China's Caixin Services PMI for June [1] - Switzerland's CPI month-on-month for June will be released at 14:30 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a regular press conference at 15:00 [1] - Final services PMI for June will be published for France at 15:50, Germany at 15:55, and the Eurozone at 16:00 [1][1][1] - The UK's services PMI for June will be available at 16:30 [1] - The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting at 19:30 [1] - Key U.S. labor market data will be released at 20:30, including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls for June [1] - The final services PMI for June from S&P Global will be published at 21:45 [1] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and factory orders for May will be released at 22:00 [1] - EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending June 27 will be available at 22:30 [1] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will speak on monetary policy at 23:00 [1] - Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are experiencing inventory accumulation and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1] Natural Rubber Market Analysis - Qingdao port's total inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouse inventory and a significant increase in general trade [1] - The overall inventory is increasing, and there is significant pressure to deplete it, with seasonal supply expectations adding to the fundamental pressure [1] - Overseas weather improvements are aiding rubber tapping operations, while domestic rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan is causing slow increases in raw material supply, keeping procurement prices firm [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with downstream enterprises primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the latter half of the week [1] Synthetic Rubber Market Analysis - The macro environment is slightly positive, boosting market sentiment, but the market is expected to return to supply-demand fundamentals after the news impact diminishes [1] - In the butadiene market, synthetic rubber strength is uplifting market sentiment, but external export prices are low, leading to cautious buying from downstream [1] - The supply side of synthetic rubber shows a slight increase in polybutadiene rubber production, while demand from tire manufacturers remains stable [1] - There are no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals, leading to insufficient rebound in futures prices, with expectations of continued range-bound trading [1] Trading Strategies - For natural rubber, the accumulation at Qingdao port is putting upward pressure on futures prices, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [1] - Suggested strategies include cautious short positions at highs, with support levels for RU at 13400 - 13500 and resistance levels at 14100 - 14200; for NR, support at 11700 - 11800 and resistance at 12300 - 12400 [1] - For synthetic rubber, the macro environment is supportive, but the lack of positive fundamentals suggests a continuation of range-bound trading, with BR support levels at 10700 - 10800 and resistance at 11600 - 11700 [1]

再 call 铜：库存供应双底的历史时刻 20250702 摘要 铜价上涨行情或已接近尾声，预计价格高点在 10,500 至 11,000 美元 之间。上游补库存、冶炼减产及潜在的 LME 和沪铜逼仓现象，将显著提 升 7 月和 8 月铜价的上涨弹性。 若发生逼仓，铜价有望突破 2024 年 5 月的 11,000 美元高点，当前的 市场条件，包括更低的供应增速、更差的库存水平和较低的非商业多单 持仓，均优于 5 月。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月铜价上涨。尽管美国库存已处高位，但 价差依然驱动补库存，预计 7 月和 8 月铜价表现将优于去年 5 月。232 关税延期至 9 月或 10 月，也为补库存提供了机会。 第二轮补库预计将从中国和欧洲开始，因美国补库后，中欧库存消耗殆 尽。欧洲 LME 库存极低，中国甚至可能出现逼仓。下一轮铜价上行取决 于中欧补库时机，或由需求预期转好或财政刺激驱动。 预计下一波行情将在 2026 年或 232 关税落地后开始，商品价格可能回 到 11,000 至 12,000 美元区间。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月（7 月和 8 月）铜价上涨。尽管美国库存目前 已达到较高位置，但 ...

Core Insights - The EIA reported a decrease in refined oil inventories by 1.71 million barrels for the week ending June 27, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 681,000 barrels and the previous week's decline of 4.066 million barrels [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Changes** - Refined oil inventories fell by 1.71 million barrels [1] - Expected change was a decrease of 681,000 barrels [1] - Previous week's inventory change was a decline of 4.066 million barrels [1]

Core Insights - The EIA reported a significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories for the week ending June 27, with a change of 4.188 million barrels, which is substantially higher than the expected increase of 0.9 million barrels and contrasts with the previous decrease of 2.075 million barrels [1] Industry Summary - The current gasoline inventory levels indicate a shift in supply dynamics, suggesting potential implications for pricing and market strategies within the energy sector [1]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加385万桶，彭博用户预计减少400万桶、分析师预 期减少269.200万桶，之前一周下降583.6万桶。 ...

Core Insights - U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 236,000 barrels [1] Industry Summary - The unexpected rise in gasoline inventories indicates a potential oversupply in the market, which could impact pricing dynamics [1] - Market analysts had anticipated a reduction in inventories, highlighting a significant deviation from expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27 was 3.845 million barrels, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 1.809 million barrels and the previous decrease of 5.836 million barrels [1]

Core Insights - The EIA reported a decrease in new gasoline inventory by 0.4 thousand barrels for the week ending June 27, compared to an increase of 0.3 thousand barrels in the previous period [1] Group 1 - The new gasoline inventory figures indicate a tightening supply in the market, which could impact pricing dynamics [1] - The previous week's inventory showed a slight increase, suggesting fluctuations in demand or supply chain issues [1] - The data reflects ongoing trends in the energy sector, particularly in gasoline consumption and storage levels [1]

美国至6月27日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...