Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views - The softening of the US President's trade stance boosts global risk appetite, and the short - term macro upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US relations. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends, with some suggesting cautious long - positions and others suggesting cautious waiting and watching. [2] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Overseas, the softening of the US President's trade stance boosts the US dollar index and global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans are introduced, increasing policy support. The market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US relations, and the short - term macro upward drive has strengthened. [2] - For assets: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position; bonds are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; for commodities, black metals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are adjusted, with cautious long - positions; energy and chemicals are volatile, with cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are strongly volatile at high levels, with cautious long - positions. [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and semiconductor components, the domestic stock market has fallen significantly. However, economic growth acceleration, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and domestic policy support boost risk appetite. The market focuses on policies and Sino - US relations, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell last Friday. With the softening of the US President's trade stance, global risk aversion declined, and gold prices dropped after hitting a record high. In the short term, precious metals are volatile at high levels, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - positions can be held or reduced on rallies, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is recommended. [3] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, with low trading volume. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts and expectations of policy benefits support the market. Fundamentally, demand has changed little, inventory has decreased, and supply is likely to decline. In the short term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound. [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices were weak last Friday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits, iron ore demand is likely to decline. Supply has changed, with a decrease in shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices. [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices were flat last Friday, and the futures prices were volatile. The decline in steel production has reduced ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are weak, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased. Silicon iron prices are stable, and the market for some raw materials is tight. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to remain range - bound. [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro factors include the easing of trade tensions and the impact of US bank credit issues. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices, but it is temporary, and future supply is expected to increase. Domestic copper inventory is high, and demand is facing challenges. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose and then fell last Friday. The market is affected by bank credit issues. Aluminum inventory has decreased, but demand is weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound. [9] Tin - On the supply side, Indonesian policies and mining approvals affect supply, and the end of maintenance in a large Chinese smelter increases production. On the demand side, demand is weak in traditional and emerging industries. High prices suppress demand, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. [10] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The decline in spot market benchmarks and premiums has led to a fall in futures prices. The return of Asia - Pacific procurement is the focus, and Russian supply is a risk point. In the short term, there may be a price rebound, but the long - term outlook is bearish. [11] Asphalt - Asphalt prices are following oil prices and remaining low and volatile. The basis is low, and there is pressure on factory inventory accumulation. Profit has recovered slightly, and supply pressure is increasing. The future trend depends on oil prices and inventory. [11] PX - Affected by falling oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices are falling. Although PTA's high - level operation provides some support, PX is expected to remain weak and volatile. [11] PTA - Downstream demand is weak, and processing fees are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and the basis is decreasing. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. [12] Ethylene Glycol - Inventory has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to remain low, with limited room for rebound. [12] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber is adjusting with the polyester sector and is expected to remain weak and volatile. The improvement in terminal orders is limited, and the future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] Methanol - Short - term supply has decreased, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, traditional demand is weak, and there are plans to restart production, so prices are expected to be volatile. [13] PP - Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Falling oil prices weaken cost support. The future trend depends on demand recovery. [13] LLDPE - Supply has increased, and inventory has accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, and cost support is weakening. The market is under short - term pressure. [14] Urea - Daily production is stable. Industrial demand is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking. The market may be stagnant and then rise slightly, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. [14] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA reports are delayed, and Sino - US soybean trade concerns persist. Domestic consumption provides some support. Brazilian and Argentine soybean conditions are good. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and Sino - US trade is the key factor. [15] Soybean Meal - Domestic oil mill supply has recovered, but inventory pressure remains. Oil mill profit is in deficit, increasing the willingness to support prices. There is a supply gap risk before the arrival of South American soybeans next year. After the oversold situation, the market is expected to stabilize and fluctuate. [15] Oils - For rapeseed oil, the easing of China - Canada relations reduces risk appetite, and the market is expected to be volatile before trade news is clear. Palm oil supply and demand are stable, and prices are supported. Soybean oil is in the peak season, and the price is stable. [15][16] Corn - Corn from Northeast and North China is on the market, causing a seasonal impact. The current price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may slow down the price decline. [16] Pigs - After the festival, the production and inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low. There is support from fat - to - lean price differences and some restocking, and the supply may decrease in late October, stabilizing prices. However, significant price recovery is difficult without a large increase in demand. [16]

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities in the black series: - Iron ore: Bullish consolidation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range consolidation, with attention on the electric - arc furnace production cut rhythm [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range consolidation, with a strong market wait - and - see atmosphere [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Wide - range consolidation with fluctuating expectations [2][16][17] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][19] 2. Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series commodities. It believes that different commodities are affected by different factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and industry policies, resulting in different price trends and market characteristics. For example, iron ore is supported by macro - expectations, while rebar and hot - rolled coil need to focus on the production cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (1.28%). The positions of I2601 increased by 12,200 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 2 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,096 yuan/ton and 3,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.19%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%) respectively. The positions of RB2601 and HC2601 increased. Spot prices generally rose, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, China's industrial enterprise profits increased. The weekly data of steel products showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. For example, in the week of October 8, the production of rebar decreased by 3.62 million tons, and the inventory increased by 23.96 million tons [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures showed fluctuations. For example, the price of SF2511 decreased by 22 yuan/ton, and the price of SM2511 increased by 26 yuan/ton. Spot prices also changed, with ferrosilicon prices generally decreasing [12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were affected by factors such as electricity prices and steel procurement. The export volume of South African manganese ore in August decreased month - on - month [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 38 yuan/ton (3.4%) and 31 yuan/ton (1.9%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it had never issued or authorized any "forced production cut" or "joint price increase" notices or initiatives [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend for coking coal [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.8%, and the trading volume increased by 191.8%. Spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties were relatively stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data were not released as scheduled [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with strong supply - demand fundamentals and positive domestic macro - expectations [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: After the parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained high. The actual supply has changed little in the past week, but the supply - side intervention expectations are fluctuating due to policy news, causing significant fluctuations in futures prices [3]. - **Demand**: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong [4]. - **Macro**: Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, and the market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the announcement. Domestic macro - expectations remain strong, providing some support for the valuation of the black - metal sector [4]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal: 876.6 (+4.08); FW clean coal: 451.95 (+1.38) | Independent coking plants' daily average: 66.34 (-0.38); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average: 46.44 (-0.21) | | Demand | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 14.6; Mine raw coal - 11.3; Mine clean coal - 21.8; Independent coking + 58.7; Steel mill coking + 5.7; Port - 16.7; FW port + 19.1 | MS total inventory + 5.2; Independent coking - 8.0; Steel mill + 16.6; Port - 3.4 | | Profit | Commodity coal: 452 (+31) | Average profit of coking enterprises: - 34 (-17) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan: 1185 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke: 1589 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal and clean coal production are presented, showing production trends over different years [9][11][13]. - **Monthly**: Data on coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal production are provided, showing monthly production trends from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Mongolian coal customs clearance**: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, Ceke ports and the total of the three ports are presented, showing trends from 2021 - 2025 [17][20][21][23]. - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the inventory of raw coal in sample mines decreased by 23.63 tons to 162.33 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 10.01 tons to 104.68 tons [28]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons [30]. - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants and their regional and capacity - based breakdowns are presented [33][35][37]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their regional breakdowns are presented [38]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity utilization**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking plants (including different capacity levels and regions) and 247 steel enterprises are presented [41][43]. - **Production**: Data on the daily production of independent coking plants and 247 steel enterprises are presented, showing trends over different years [45][47]. - **Inventory** - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory of independent coking plants are presented, showing trends over different years [49]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel enterprises are presented [50][53][54]. - **Total sample**: Data on the total coke inventory are presented, showing trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Demand**: Data on the daily production of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises and the supply - demand difference of coke are presented [58][59]. - **Profit**: Data on the ton - coke futures (main - contract) profit and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [62][63]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking coal futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coking coal index closing price [66]. - **Coke futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coke index closing price [68]. - **Coal and coke monthly spread**: Data on the spread between JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [71]. - **Coal and coke spot**: Data on the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke are presented [74]. - **Coal and coke basis**: The futures price may weaken due to macro - sentiment and policy news, and the basis has increased month - on - month [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - expectation has improved, and prices are fluctuating widely. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal prices are all in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors for each [1][3][5][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The futures price of rebar was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was firm. The trading volume of building materials increased slightly compared with the previous day. The rebar main contract closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3357 yuan/ton. The total national building materials trading volume was 103,859 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The downstream demand has restocking needs before the festival, and merchants are more reluctant to sell. With the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" policies, the chasing - up sentiment has declined. The short - term market trading may return to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term building steel prices will enter a wide - range oscillation stage [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly. The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 803.5 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 155 million tons, a 13.46% decrease from the previous day; the forward spot trading volume was 65 million tons, a 71.37% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The arrival of iron ore this week decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the port inventory increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The restocking demand of steel mills before the National Day has been released. The hot - metal output is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on the arrival and the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the festival [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of double - coking oscillated. Due to restocking before the double festivals, the price of coking coal continued to rise, and the cost of coke increased. Some coke enterprises have proposed to raise the coke price. The production of domestic coal mines is relatively stable, and some coal mines have plans to stop production during the National Day, with limited impact on supply. The available high - quality resources at the Mongolian coal port are scarce, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to 1030 - 1040 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is basically stable, with strong rigid demand support, but the terminal demand recovery is less than expected, the steel inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged, and the pre - festival restocking intensity is relatively limited, so the coke supply and demand are basically balanced. The production of coal mines is gradually recovering, the demand is considerable, but the inventory continues to accumulate, which suppresses the price [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to be in an oscillatory state for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas remained stable. The over - production verification in the production areas continued to be strengthened, but the overall impact was limited. The coal supply at the mine mouth was sufficient, and the prices of some coal mines with low inventory remained stable. At the port, as the mine - mouth coal price continued to rise, the buyer's resistance increased, the pre - festival restocking was basically completed, and the market demand continued to decline. The tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The safety supervision in the production areas has become stricter, the supply is relatively sufficient, the daily consumption of thermal coal has begun to decline, and the non - power demand such as the chemical industry has decreased. The short - term coal price will oscillate. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market continues to rise, but there is a risk of a peak in the short - term. Basic metals are expected to be volatile, and different metals have different trends and trading strategies. In the black industry, steel and iron ore markets have certain supply - demand characteristics, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The agricultural products market shows different supply - demand situations for each variety, with corresponding trading strategies. The energy and chemical market has complex supply - demand relationships, and most products are recommended to be short - term cautious or long - term bearish [1][2][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices continue to rise, with New York gold breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and market funds continue to go long [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is divided, and economic data in the US and the eurozone shows mixed trends. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories of gold and silver in different regions have changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic, but with contradictory outlooks and high prices, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday for gold, and also partially take profits for silver [1]. 3.2 Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The path of the US dollar interest rate cut is clear, but there are uncertainties. Domestic policy expectations have fallen short in the short - term, and Powell's speech has affected risk preferences [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt an oscillatory thinking in the short - term and wait for good buying points [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.29% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,685 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and downstream consumption continues to pick up [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down, and it is recommended to go long on dips due to the expected post - holiday destocking [4]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.94% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2,877 yuan per ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and it is expected that the price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has new furnaces opened, and social inventory slightly accumulates. The demand side has high polysilicon operating rates, but the "anti - involution" policy has a multi - empty game [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate between 8,700 - 9,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 73,660 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, with lithium ore imports and production changing. Demand is strong due to the peak season of energy storage and new energy vehicles. It is expected to continue destocking in September [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and the core driver lies in supply - side changes. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract opened low and oscillated narrowly on Tuesday, with a decrease of 1.43% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Supply is stable with high operating rates, and demand has limited price fluctuations in downstream products. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The disk is expected to oscillate downward. Pay attention to the support level at 48,000 yuan and the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. 3.3 Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar closed at 3,145 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for building materials is in the peak season, but the previous high supply has led to slow destocking. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory accumulation margin slows down. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Try the 10/5 reverse spread for rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3,100 - 3,170 yuan [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore closed at 803 yuan per ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the inventory increased. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the steel mill's profit margin has slightly recovered. The supply - demand of iron ore is marginally neutral to strong, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,224 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but some non - mainstream coking plants have proposed price increases. The inventory at each link of the supply side is differentiated, and the futures valuation is high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for JM01 is 1,180 - 1,250 yuan [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybeans have a slight reduction in production and are entering the harvest season. South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The demand is structurally differentiated, with an increase in US soybean crushing but a weak export demand for new crops. The global inventory is expected to be high [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, US soybeans are weak due to weak export expectations, and the domestic market is also weak due to a narrowing gap expectation. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies in the medium - term [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2511 contract is running weakly, and most of the spot prices of corn have fallen [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The auction of imported grains has increased the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Trade negotiations bring uncertainties to imports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the pressure of new crop listing, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,487 yuan per ton, up 0.86% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production has reached a new high, and the raw sugar price has been affected. Domestically, the import volume in August reached a new high, and the market expects high imports in the future. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia for the 25/26 season has officially started [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose significantly. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price also stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the cotton boll opening rate in the US is slightly different from previous years, and the local cotton price in Pakistan is under pressure. Domestically, the opening rate of spinning mills is basically stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and mainly use a range strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan per ton [8]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 805 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.31%. The spot prices of logs in different regions are stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The total inventory of major ports across the country has slightly decreased, and the current spot price is stable, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In the short - term, Malaysian palm oil continues to fall, digesting the negative impact of Argentina's suspension of export tariffs [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side has an estimated 8.7% month - on - month increase in exports from September 1 - 20 according to ITS [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, palm oil is weak due to the suppression of international oils. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the later stage [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2511 contract is running weakly, and the spot price is stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the downstream acceptance of high egg prices is low, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has increased. The feed price is low, and the vegetable price has dragged down the egg price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price of pigs has slightly decreased [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is abundant, the slaughter of farmers and second - fattening pigs is increasing, and the slaughter volume in September is expected to increase by 3.9%. The weather is getting cooler, and the pig growth is accelerating. Fearing the seasonal weakening of demand after the double festivals, the pre - festival slaughter enthusiasm has increased, and the pre - festival pig price is expected to be weak. The pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 6, and policy support may boost market sentiment [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the loose supply, the futures price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to decline slightly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China is 7,050 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 50, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are put into operation, and the domestic supply continues to increase. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, it is currently the peak season for downstream agricultural films, and the demand has improved month - on - month, but other areas' demand remains stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply is increasing, and the peak - season demand is less than expected. It will mainly oscillate, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4,884, down 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is oscillating at the bottom, and the spot trading is light. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. New devices have been put into operation, the production in August increased by 6% year - on - year, the upstream operating rate is 78%, the downstream factory operating rate is about 37% and has declined by 2% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the social inventory has reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the weak supply - demand, it is recommended to short [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,188, down 2.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass trading is stable, and the center of gravity has slightly moved up. The supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume of the supply side is 160,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 7.0%. One production line is expected to resume production in October. The inventory has decreased, the downstream deep - processing enterprise order days are 10.4 days, and the operating rate is about 49% and has increased by 1% month - on - month. The real estate new construction and completion are down 15% year - on - year, and the spot price has slightly increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the seasonal recovery of demand, it is recommended to go long [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract is the disk price minus 100, and the basis is strengthening. The market trading performance is average. The US dollar quotation in the overseas market has a slight decline, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the overall maintenance scale is still relatively high in the short - term, new devices are gradually starting up, the domestic supply is increasing, and the supply pressure has increased. The export window has reopened. On the demand side, the peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is coming, and the downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly destocked, the basis is weak, the supply and demand are both increasing. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become loose in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the oil price stabilized. The agreement for Iraq to resume the Kurdish crude oil export pipeline was blocked, and Trump's statement about anti - Russian oil has affected the market [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pay attention to the decline in Russian crude oil exports, with a small expected reduction. OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is relatively small. The supply pressure from other countries is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the gasoline consumption peak season is over, and the refineries in Europe and the US are entering the autumn maintenance period. The demand is weakening month - on - month, and there is a risk of global economic slowdown in Q4 [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short crude oil at high prices and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity for the SC main contract around 500 yuan per barrel [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of EB continued to decline slightly yesterday. The spot market quotation in East China is 6,900 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The US dollar price in the overseas market has a slight decline, and the import window is still closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal to high level, and the supply - demand expectation has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is also at a normal to high level, and the downstream has destocked before the holiday. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises are still suffering large losses, the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. The downstream operating rate has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak season [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand has marginally improved, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory is at a normal to high level, the downstream has restocked before the holiday, the basis is weakening, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, as the supply gradually recovers, the market supply - demand pattern will become loose. It is recommended to short at high prices or do the month - spread reverse spread when the price rebounds [10].