Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - **Aluminum**: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - **Zinc**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - **Lead**: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - **Tin**: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - **Nickel**: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - **Soybean**: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - **Cotton**: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - **Egg**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - **Live Pig**: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]

Group 1 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil prices [2] - The PTA market is expected to face considerable downward pressure due to weakening macroeconomic expectations and trade conflicts between the US and Europe [2][3] - Domestic crude oil prices have been operating at low levels since April, with a bearish trend in technical indicators [3] Group 2 - The import volume of PX in China decreased significantly in April, indicating weak terminal demand in the polyester industry [4] - The domestic PTA market is under dual pressure from increasing new capacity and slowing downstream demand growth [5] - The domestic PTA production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high [5][6] Group 3 - Downstream polyester demand has shown slight improvement, but overall growth remains limited due to weak terminal orders and inventory pressure [6] - The supply-demand structure for PTA remains weak, with increasing supply from new capacities and recovering existing facilities [7] - The geopolitical factors have raised crude oil price premiums, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest significant upward pressure on prices [7]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the prices of different agricultural products show different trends, with corn expected to fluctuate upward, soybean meal to fluctuate and rise, oils and fats to fluctuate weakly, eggs to fluctuate weakly, and live pigs to fluctuate [1] Group 3 - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with short - term fluctuations ending and prices resuming upward. In the northeast region, mainstream corn prices rose slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises also raised their purchase prices. In North China, corn prices were generally stable with a slight weakness [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, but favorable weather in the central United States limited price increases. Domestic soybean meal showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with funds mainly flowing out. The supply pressure of soybean meal is postponed to mid - June [1] - Oils and fats prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. BMD palm oil rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, and high - frequency data previously showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June. Domestic palm oil increased in positions and reached a two - week high [1] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Egg futures prices rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices were stable, with supply increasing until August. The supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, and egg prices are expected to remain weak until there is an unexpectedly large increase in culling. However, egg prices in low - price areas have fallen below the cost line, so the downward space for later egg prices is relatively limited [1] - Live pig prices are expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the live pig futures contract 2509 broke through the integer support of 13,500 yuan, then rebounded due to the positive sentiment of the macro and surrounding commodities. Spot pig prices were stable with a slight strength this week [1] Group 4 - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that private exporters reported selling 101,096 tons of corn to unknown destinations and 104,000 tons to Mexico, all for the 2024/2025 sales year [3] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that there is undoubtedly an economic emergency in the US, and the government has multiple options on trade issues. The government has a high chance of winning in court rulings and appeals regarding trade issues [3] - Agricultural information agency Sovecon reported that Russia's grain exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.94 billion tons, lower than 5.02 billion tons in 2024/25. Russia's wheat exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 110 million tons compared to the previous year [3] - Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities announced that Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation is weak, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and are in an oscillating state. Iron ore prices are oscillating with high - level iron - water production. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and their prices are oscillating. The demand for thermal coal is weak, and the decline in coal prices has narrowed [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated slightly. The main rebar contract 2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the main hot - rolled coil contract 2510 closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market was average, and the overall transaction in the spot market was also average, with the national building materials sales volume at 98000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials have improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the output of building materials remains stable. As the southern region enters the flood season, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates has decreased, consumption remains high, and inventory is continuously decreasing, supporting plate prices. Steel exports are resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market. Although domestic exports have largely offset the decline in exports to the US, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports, resulting in weak steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies and the impact of tariffs on indirect steel exports [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated upward. As of the close, the main iron ore contract 2509 rose by 0.76%. In the spot market, the price indices of port iron ore showed mixed trends, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cumulative trading volume of national main port iron ore and forward - looking spot decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Comprehensive View**: The shipment of iron ore has recovered this period. The iron - water production is oscillating at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remains relatively high, but there is no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply - demand, but when the actual situation turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies. Attention should be paid to iron ore shipments, blast furnace restart and maintenance, and the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the double - coking futures oscillated as a whole. For coke, the steel prices have been oscillating downward recently, and the trading volume is weak. For coking coal, as the second - round price cut for coke is emerging, the market is pessimistic. Coke enterprises continue to replenish inventory as needed. Some prices were lowered by 20 - 40 yuan/ton yesterday, and most auction transactions ended with price cuts, with a high rate of auction failures. In the imported Mongolian coal market, the bearish expectation is strong, the shipment pressure at the port is high, and the market trading volume continues to weaken [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, coke enterprises still have profits, and the coke supply is relatively stable. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season and may decline. Therefore, some steel mills are controlling their procurement. The overall coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand expectation in the off - season is weak. Although coke is supported to some extent by the high - level iron - water production of steel mills, there are concerns about future inventory reduction, and coking coal shows a trend of inventory accumulation. Without actual driving factors such as macro - level benefits or coal mine production cuts, the supply - demand of coking coal is expected to remain loose. Attention should be paid to changes in iron - water production and the impact of overseas tariff policies [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate weakly; coke is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin area, the decline in port prices has slowed down recently, and the pit - mouth coal prices have been slightly lowered. The market sentiment has slightly eased. The number of coal - hauling trucks in a few coal mines has increased, reducing inventory pressure. In the port area, the port market is running weakly and steadily. The market inquiry demand has increased, and the quotes are gradually firming up. However, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term market is difficult to rebound. In the import market, the imported coal market is running weakly and steadily. As the domestic coal price continues to fall, the bid price of imported coal continues to decline, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for coal prices lacks support. As the weather warms up, the price clearly lacks support. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 宏观预期提振，中游价格先行回暖 ——每周高频跟踪 20250517 （1）动力煤：价格环比跌幅扩大。南方降水频繁利好水电出力，北方多地高 温天气，加之进口煤价格倒挂持续，夏季备库需求有所释放，南北需求分化。 （2）螺纹钢：宏观利好提振、表观需求增加，螺纹钢价格上涨。本周螺纹钢 现货价格环比+0.4%，前周环比-1.1%。贸易增长预期修复，投机性需求上升， 库存明显下降，支撑钢价反弹。 （3）铜：铜价涨幅收窄，供需基本面偏弱。长江有色铜、LME 铜均价环比分 别+0.3%、+1.2%，涨幅收窄。宏观利好提振预期，但铜现货消费延续弱势， 下游高价观望情绪偏强，限制铜价涨幅。 投资相关：假期后地产销售反弹，二手房量能韧性仍在 1、水泥：水泥价格延续下跌。水泥价格环比-1.5%、连续六周下跌。需求整体 走弱，房建和基建需求放缓，叠加端午节前贸易商回款一般，延续供需双弱。 2、地产：（1）30 城新房成交环比回暖。5 月 9 日-5 月 15 日，环比+69%，同 比-10%，跌幅较前周继续扩大。（2）二手房环比回升斜率高于季节性，量能韧 性仍在。本周二手房成交环比+78%、同比- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be broadly volatile, boosted by macro - expectations [2][4]. - The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil are generally rising, driven by macro sentiment [2][6]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are in wide - range fluctuations due to steel tender inquiries and price tests [2][10]. - The coke market is in wide - range fluctuations with the initiation of the first round of price cuts, and the coking coal market is also in wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - The thermal coal market is expected to be weakly volatile due to the increase in coal mine inventory [2][17]. - The log market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, boosted by macro expectations [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 737.0 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton or 3.15%. The previous day's positions increased by 30,334 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 16.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose 13.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 1.23%, and positions decreased by 39,651 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,267 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.27%, and positions decreased by 2,694 hands. Spot prices in various regions generally increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. The increase in social financing scale from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a relatively strong trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: For ferrosilicon 2507, the closing price was 5678 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5864 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Spot prices of some products changed, and some basis and spread values also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 14, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and specifications changed. The procurement volume and price of a large steel group in Hebei for silicomanganese in May changed compared with April [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 894.5 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 2.76%. For coke J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1482 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 2.42%. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke products changed slightly, and basis and spread values also changed [13]. - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts of the top 20 members of the DCE decreased on May 14 [13][14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in southern ports and domestic production areas were reported. The positions of the top 20 members of the ZCE for the ZC2506 contract did not change on May 14 [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of log's 2507, 2509, and 2511 contracts changed. Spot prices of various log products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides promised to take a series of measures before May 14, 2025, including modifying and canceling tariffs on each other's goods and suspending or canceling non - tariff counter - measures [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 15 日 铁矿石：宏观预期提振，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 3.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 737. 0 | 22. 5 | | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(于) | | | | | | 744. 359 | 30, 334 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | 现货价格 | 进口矿 | 卡粉(65%) | 866. 0 | 850. 0 | 16. 0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 778. 0 | 765. 0 | 13. 0 | | | | 金布巴(61%) | 740. 0 | 725. 0 | 15. 0 | | | | 超特(56.5%) | 646. 0 | 630. 0 | 16. 0 | | | 国 ...

宏观预期降温，黑色震荡下行 钢矿周度报告 2025-05-12 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货继续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 库存 | 高炉产量高位，电炉继续减产 建材库存开始累积，板材库存同步走高 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增速放缓，板材需求内弱外强 | | 钢 | | | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润走扩，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，正套注意止盈 | | | | 中美贸易冲突进入谈判环节，国内政策落地，美联储按兵不动；产业变化：上周高炉产量继续增加，电炉开工环比继续回落，五大材开始减产，短流程亏 损减产，螺纹供应下降，板类产量变化不大；需求方面，混凝土发运回落，建材需求环比增速继续放缓；板类需求同步放慢，出口继续高位但增速明显放 | | | 总结 | 缓，内外需求下行压力较大；库存 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250507: 宏观预期提振 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/5/6 | 2025/4/30 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 太仓 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2288.00 2417.50 | 2316.00 2440.00 | -28.00 -22.50 | -1.21% -0.92% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2300.00 2219.00 | 2311.00 2251.00 | -11.00 -32.00 | -0.48% -1.42% | | | 甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2415.00 | 2450.00 | -35.00 | -1.43% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2400.00 | -20.00 | -0.83% | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic expectations are fluctuating, leading to a rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals, with copper and aluminum continuing to deplete inventories [4][11] - Gold prices have reached historical highs due to increased safe-haven demand, although recent political developments have caused volatility [5][19] - The market sentiment for tin has improved due to easing trade tensions between the US and China, with prices showing a strong upward trend [39] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 77,480 CNY/ton, supported by inventory depletion and stable demand [4][11] - Aluminum: Prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 19,970 CNY/ton, driven by improved market confidence and reduced inventories [15][18] - Precious Metals: As of April 24, the average price of gold was 801.08 CNY/gram, up 4.12% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,198 CNY/kg, up 1.43% [5][19] 2. Minor Metals - Tin: The price closed at 31,500 USD/ton, up 540 USD/ton (1.74%) from the previous week, with improved macro sentiment and easing supply concerns [39] - Lithium: Prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with industrial-grade lithium averaging 570,000 CNY/ton [31] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt concentrate remain stable, while electrolytic cobalt prices have seen slight adjustments [34][35] 3. Rare Earths - Prices for light rare earths have decreased, with neodymium-praseodymium oxide down 2.5% to 406,000 CNY/ton, but long-term demand remains strong [6] 4. Tungsten - Prices for tungsten have increased due to tightening supply, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 147,000 CNY/ton [45][46] 5. Molybdenum - The molybdenum market has shown signs of recovery, with prices for molybdenum concentrate rising to 3,355 CNY/ton [53][54]