商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 764. 0 | 0. 5 | 0. 07% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 661.862 | 1.947 | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 昨日价格(元/吨) 845. 0 | 前日价格(元/吨) 841.0 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | PB (61.5%) | 752. 0 | 750. 0 | 4. 0 2. 0 | | | 进口矿 | | | | | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 715. 0 | 715. 0 | 0. 0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 628. 0 | 630. 0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 郎 ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破去年四季度密集成交区，重心继续上移。沪指突破五、六月份来回震 荡的小箱体后连续上行，已经越过了去年四季度的密集成交区，重心再次上移。目前上方的主要技术压 力位在去年十月初的高点，这个位置也是周线大箱体的顶部位置。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，宏观预期有所改善，A 股市场连续上涨。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边际改善。 全球贸易摩擦逐步缓和，美国的部分压制手段有所收敛。国内方面，"反内卷"工作持续推进，产能过剩 预期将有所缓解，这对提升盈利预期有正面作用。此外，稳定币的发展对金融板块形成一定利好，推动 相关板块持续活跃，帮助指数冲破重要技术压力。上周，两市连续反弹，日均成交增加。沪指上周延续 了向上反弹的趋势，周三盘中创出去年 11 月以来的高点，周四周五继续向上推进。深圳成指上周同步 反弹，创出阶段高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 15000 亿，较上周出现回升。上周市场热点主 要集中在钢铁、房地产和券商等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a short-term price fluctuation with a tendency to strengthen, driven by seasonal supply declines, weak demand, and changing inventory levels [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons week-on-week [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons, with shipments to China at 14.537 million tons, down 3.231 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons [1] Demand Summary - Daily average pig iron production was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week [1] - The operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1] Inventory Summary - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily dispatch volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 36,100 tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The seasonal decline in iron ore shipments is evident, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while near-term arrivals have increased [1] - The decline in pig iron production is attributed to routine maintenance in some regions and weather conditions in Hebei [1] - The port arrivals fell short of expectations, leading to a decrease in port inventories and an increase in steel mills' imported ore stocks [1] - As July approaches, macroeconomic expectations are influencing the market, with a rebound in related commodities due to "anti-involution" trends [1] - The healthy profitability of steel mills and the absence of significant supply pressure suggest a short-term upward price trend for iron ore, with a need for risk control and attention to market sentiment and macroeconomic developments [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观窗口与情绪交织， 矿价宽幅震荡 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/07/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算6月全球铁矿石发运周均值3431.85万吨，环比+222.45万吨；6月，澳洲发往中国周均值1758.03万吨，较上月变化+175.41万吨。 巴西发运量周均值834.55万吨，较上月变化+41.19万吨。测算45港到港量周均值2479.88万吨，较上月环比+127.20万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算6月日均铁水产量241.93万吨，较上月变化-1.84万吨。 ◆ 库存：6月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存13930.23万吨，较上月变化+63.65万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值319.29万吨，较上月变化 +5.61万吨；钢厂进口铁矿石库存8847.47万吨，较上月末变化+93.14万吨。 ◆ 小结：展望7月，供给方面， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile and upward trend. The "anti - involution and capacity reduction" proposal and the expected production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have pushed up the prices of steel products. However, the actual implementation of these policies needs further verification. The static fundamentals of steel have no obvious contradictions, and future attention should be paid to policy trends, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The price of iron ore is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. The supply of iron ore has decreased, and the demand has also declined due to factors such as seasonal maintenance of blast furnaces and production cuts by some steel mills. The impact of macro - expectations on the market has increased, and attention should be paid to the interference of production restrictions in Tangshan and the reduction of pellet production expectations by Vale [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices are expected to maintain a volatile or slightly rebound state in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are still uncertainties. Enterprises with hedging profit margins are recommended to conduct appropriate hedging operations [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon is still in a downward trend. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but the comparison with the 2015 supply - side reform is questionable. Short - term speculative short positions are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For glass, the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the sustainability of the rebound is limited [15][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.358%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained flat. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3208 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.532%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained flat [2]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, the apparent supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory depletion speed slowed down. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, the demand declined, and the inventory slightly accumulated, but it was still at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45% (+10.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 725 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.61% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the terminal demand was neutral. The port inventory changed little, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.24% at 5712 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was at a premium to the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.85% at 5390 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was also at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices are expected to be volatile or slightly rebound in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are uncertainties [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 2.44% at 8010 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, and both were at a premium to the futures [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend. The market's optimism about the "capacity reduction" policy needs further verification [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe increased by 21 yuan, and that in Central China remained flat. The national inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation pushed up the futures price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 20 yuan. The domestic inventory increased by 2.30%. The demand continued to decline, and the supply was still abundant. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the rebound sustainability is limited [15][17].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：边缘政治因素消除 大宗商品价格回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑： 昨日边缘政治因素消除，油气及产业链商品大幅下挫带动黑色系价格走弱，铁矿石 价格跟随运行。近期成材端需求延续淡季特征，但并未出现累库，整体表现强于预期。铁矿石 供给端保持季节性增量特征，但碳元素不断让利于铁元素，高炉利润水平相对可观，国内铁矿 石需求保持相对高位水平，对铁矿石价格形成一定支撑。6 月份以来铁矿石基差由现货向期货 回归，现货端价格较 5 月底出现大幅下滑，而盘面相对平稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负 ...

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory continuing and the price in a high - level game during the off - season [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% unchanged, and it may cut interest rates twice this year according to the dot - plot. Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday [2] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina didn't change much. Due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina. There is an expectation of a decline in the prices of alumina and auxiliary materials, weakening the cost support for electrolytic aluminum [3] - In June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong. The weekly开工 rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, with different performances in each segment [3] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory reduction slowed down in mid - June. Affected by regional price differences and transfers, the inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in the Central Plains increased significantly, while that in Foshan, South China decreased greatly, and other regions remained stable. The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory reduction trend, but the increase in shipments from the northwest and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]