Core Insights - Hongmeng Zhixing is accelerating its new car releases as it approaches the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period, with several new models announced and pre-orders initiated [1][5][6] Sales Performance - In July, Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 47,752 vehicles, leading in sales among new forces and luxury brands, with an average transaction price of 390,000 yuan in June [5] - The company has achieved full coverage across various vehicle types and price ranges, from 160,000 yuan to 1 million yuan, particularly with the launch of the Shangjie H5 starting at 169,800 yuan [5] New Product Launches - Hongmeng Zhixing plans to introduce a new MPV and additional sedan and SUV models under the Shangjie brand next year [6] - The Shangjie H5 has already received over 50,000 pre-orders within 18 hours of its announcement, indicating strong market interest [21] Sales Channels - Since its establishment, Hongmeng Zhixing has been developing independent sales channels, aiming to establish 1,000 stores this year [10] - The AITO brand has also begun to establish its own sales channels, which may alleviate some sales pressure compared to the traditional luxury brand model [18][21] Market Competition - The traditional luxury brands may face increased competition from Hongmeng Zhixing, particularly as it continues to build brand recognition and consumer interest [7] - The Zhijie brand has sold 49,000 vehicles in the first seven months of the year, but it heavily relies on the Zhijie R7 model, which may lead to internal competition with similar offerings from the Wanjie brand [21][22] Consumer Insights - Consumers interested in the Wanjie brand are showing a preference for the M8 and M9 models, which are expected to drive sales [43] - The market response to the luxury model, Zunjie S800, has been positive, with over 10,000 orders within 67 days of its launch, indicating a shift towards "high cost-performance luxury" [38][42] Future Outlook - Hongmeng Zhixing aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million vehicles this year, having sold 204,000 units in the first half and 47,000 in July, although reaching this target may be challenging [52] - The introduction of new models like the Shangjie H5 and Wanjie M8 is expected to significantly boost sales and help maintain its leading position among new forces in the automotive market [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly this week, reaching a high of 20,555 yuan/ton. As the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand may see a slight recovery, but the degree of demand improvement remains to be further observed. The current industry operating rate shows a divergence. Large enterprises have relatively abundant orders and a slightly increased operating rate, while small and medium-sized enterprises face more severe problems such as raw material shortages and production losses, with some reduction or suspension of production. In addition, the policy of canceling tax rebates has been fermenting this week, and the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. Some enterprises are considering adopting a more cautious business strategy and plan to reduce or suspend production to avoid the risks of policy uncertainty. Overall, both cost support and policy pressure strongly support the price of recycled aluminum, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - As of August 29, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories + social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons from the previous week to 11.58 million tons, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the upstream, the amount of waste generated at the end in August was still lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the downstream, in the fourth week of August (August 18 - August 24), domestic automobile sales were 473,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of nearly 10%, and fuel vehicles performed better than new energy vehicles. Overall, the effect of the trade-in policy is prominent, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which will help stabilize consumer confidence and continuously boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the growth of automobile sales is expected to improve month-on-month [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium-to-high level in history [10]. - Waste aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year-on-year growth rate. In July 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 16.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, and the cumulative import was 117.27 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.35% [14]. - The scrap-to-primary aluminum price difference shows an oscillating trend [19]. Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 converged significantly [26]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy weakened, showing certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the monthly operating rate continued to rise [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break-even line [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the social inventory continued to increase [43]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [47]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are provided. The production shows certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory also varies by region [50][52]. Demand Side Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles declined, which was transmitted to the die-casting consumption [57].

Group 1: Real Estate Policy Changes - New anti-money laundering regulations for real estate will be implemented in September 2025, marking a detailed effort by authorities to enhance oversight in the sector [2] - Beijing has introduced new requirements for residential property regulations, leading to delays in project approvals due to issues with excessive usable area [3] - Shanghai and Beijing have relaxed purchase restrictions, signaling a shift in real estate policy that may boost market confidence and activity during the "golden September and silver October" sales period [7][15] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the policy adjustments in Shanghai, there was a notable increase in market activity, with second-hand home transactions rising approximately 14.8% and new listings increasing about 40.1% within two days [16] - The adjustments in Shanghai's real estate policies are seen as a significant move to lower housing costs and stimulate reasonable housing demand, which is crucial for market stability [16] - The ongoing changes in housing demand dynamics reflect a shift from merely having housing to seeking quality housing, necessitating a more flexible approach to policy adjustments [8][17] Group 3: Financial Implications and Future Outlook - The former Minister of Finance indicated that land transfer revenues are unlikely to see significant growth due to the current sluggish state of the real estate market, despite some cities easing restrictions [6] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is that effective demand and confidence are critical for recovery, with a focus on systemic reforms to stabilize expectations and enhance market conditions [18] - The "old for new" housing subsidy program in Changsha aims to stimulate the market by providing financial incentives for residents to upgrade their homes, reflecting a broader trend of localized policy adaptations to meet housing needs [11][12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the new real estate policies in Shanghai are expected to stimulate housing demand, particularly in the outer ring areas, leading to increased market activity during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [2][9] - The new policies include the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions for families meeting certain criteria, allowing them to buy unlimited properties in the outer ring, which is anticipated to significantly boost housing demand and market transactions [3][4] - The implementation of the new policies has already shown immediate effects, with projects like Poly Haishangyin and Jinmao Tangqian achieving "sunshine sales" on the first day of the policy's enactment, indicating strong buyer interest [6][7] Group 2 - Data from the China Index Academy shows that as of August 23, over 60% of new residential transactions in Shanghai occurred in the outer ring, highlighting its importance in the market [4] - The new policies are designed to alleviate the pressure on inventory in the outer ring areas by increasing purchasing power and facilitating smoother transactions between new and second-hand homes [4][5] - The policies also include provisions for single individuals to be treated similarly to families in terms of purchasing limits, which is expected to increase the number of eligible buyers and meet diverse housing needs [5][10] Group 3 - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to see a more vibrant market due to the new policies, which also include enhancements to housing provident fund usage and reduced loan interest rates for second homes [9][10] - The new measures are projected to provide significant financial relief to buyers, with calculations indicating that monthly payments for second homes could decrease substantially under the new loan policies [10] - Industry analysts suggest that real estate companies should adapt their sales strategies to leverage the new policies effectively and enhance their sales performance during the peak season [10][11]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic indicates that Yongxing Huashan's mining safety production license has been successfully renewed, and domestic weekly lithium carbonate production remains above 20,000 tons, with some companies resuming operations [1] - The operating rate of spodumene lithium extraction lines has further increased, and the production and processing profits in the smelting segment remain favorable [1] - Key events to monitor include the renewal and resumption timeline of CATL's mining license, adjustments in trading limits and margin requirements by the Guangxi Futures Exchange, and the supply and import situation of overseas lithium mines [1] Group 2: Alumina - The domestic spot market price of alumina has seen a decline, with the largest drop in Xinjiang region at 30 yuan/ton; as of August 28, China's total alumina inventory reached 4.316 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts continue to rise, indicating potential for further increases in inventory [1] - Key events to watch include the progress of domestic alumina resumption and new production, export policies and supply disruptions from bauxite mines in Guinea and Indonesia, and the impact of the traditional peak season on inventory replenishment [1] Group 3: Soybean Meal - The trading logic suggests that the excellent condition of U.S. soybeans supports high yield expectations, while domestic soybean crushing remains at high levels, leading to ample supply of soybean meal [1] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been zero for 17 consecutive weeks, with no signs of procurement starting [1] - Key events to monitor include the results of the new round of negotiations between China and the U.S., the USDA's September supply and demand report, and the planting progress and weather conditions for soybeans in Brazil and Argentina [1] Group 4: Tin - The trading logic indicates that a subsidiary of Tin Industry Co. has announced equipment maintenance, with the maintenance expected to last no more than 45 days starting August 30, 2025; the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is at 86.2% [1] - The recovery of tin supply from Myanmar is progressing slowly, and imports of tin ore into China remain low [1] - Key events to watch include the manufacturing PMI on August 31, the progress of tin mine recovery in Myanmar, and the Fed's interest rate decisions [1] Group 5: Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons; the volume of foreign ore arriving at ports has hit a one-month low, leading to a continuous decline in inventory [1] - The profitability of steel mills is at 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week, with daily iron water production at 2.4013 million tons, down by 6,200 tons [1] - Key events to monitor include the actual implementation of production limits in the north, the recovery of demand during the traditional peak season, and the macroeconomic impacts of potential Fed rate cuts [1] Group 6: Glass - The trading logic indicates that prices in the East China market have increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton; the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises nationwide is 62.566 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes or 1.63% [2] - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to drive relative seasonal demand [2] - Key events to monitor include whether the traditional peak season will lead to rigid replenishment and the impact of production and logistics restrictions on demand [2] Group 7: Coking Coal - The trading logic indicates that an online auction for 64,000 tons of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company failed; the purchasing pace from downstream has slowed, leading to increased supply pressure at ports in North and East China [2] - The profitability of coking plants is at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from the previous period [2] - Key events to watch include the progress of "anti-involution" regulations, changes in pricing at Ganqimaodu port, and the recovery of coal mine supply [2]

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of methanol remains loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Spot and Futures and Downstream Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 was 2,361 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.83%) from August 22. The basis was - 136 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-23.64%) [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang was 2,298.4 yuan/ton, down 61.2 yuan/ton (-2.59%); the CFR price of methanol was 262 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton (0.23%) [4]. - Downstream: The price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.95%); the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu was 2,223.75 yuan/ton, up 33.75 yuan/ton (1.54%); the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of MTBE in Shandong was 4,983.75 yuan/ton, down 27.25 yuan/ton (-0.54%) [4]. 3.2 Methanol Cost and Profit - Due to the decline in coal prices, although methanol prices also dropped, the decline was limited, so the profitability of coal - based methanol production slightly improved. Meanwhile, the profits of coke oven gas - based and natural gas - based methanol production decreased month - on - month, and natural gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss [9]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the demand fulfillment is slightly weak. The profit of MTO continues to recover, and the demand support for methanol continues. The profits of traditional demand sectors show mixed trends, and current demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [9]. 3.3 Methanol Supply Side - As of August 28, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, up 1.07 percentage points month - on - month. Methanol production was 1.9182 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons (1.28%) from the previous week [14]. - This week, plants in Shaanxi Shenmu, Xin'ao Daqi, Inner Mongolia Yigao, etc. resumed production, with a total restored production capacity of about 2.6 million tons; plants in Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, Xiaoyi Pengfei, etc. were under maintenance, with a total lost production capacity of about 1.2 million tons [14]. - In early September, plants such as Ningxia Baofeng are planned to resume production, with a restored production capacity of about 2.2 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. 3.4 Methanol Demand Side - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins was 85.35%, up 0.76 percentage points; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.27%, down 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.97%, down 1.05 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged at 63.54%; the operating rate of methane chloride was 87.17%, up 2.49 percentage points [17]. 3.5 Methanol Port and Inland Inventory - As of August 27, the total methanol port inventory was 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons (20.7%) from the previous period. With stable overseas operating rates and stable imported supplies, coastal olefin plants have no restart plans, and port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. - Inland inventory was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons (7.27%) from the previous period, still at a low - inventory level. The marginal demand for external procurement of olefins in some inland areas has weakened. Attention should be paid to the continuous rhythm of port cargo "back - flowing" [21]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and methanol prices will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - Long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings: The recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, and macro - market sentiment [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the easing of liquidity will open up upward space for copper prices. Coupled with the tight supply of copper mines, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain the operation strategy of buying on dips. The upper level should pay attention to the pressure at the 81,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. On August 1st, the lowest price of Shanghai copper reached 77,960 yuan/ton, and on August 25th, the highest price reached 79,830 yuan/ton. The market's focus shifted to the time and rhythm of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The tight raw material supply continued, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices was insufficient, limiting the upward space [10]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - **Overseas**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The probability of a rate cut is high, and it is expected to cut rates twice this year. The employment data in July was not as expected, but the labor market remained relatively stable. The S&P and Fitch affirmed the US sovereign credit rating. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August improved. The eurozone's economic data improved significantly, and the market's expectation of the ECB's rate cut remained stable [8][15][17]. - **Domestic**: The domestic economy is generally stable. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The growth rate of domestic economic data in July and August slowed down, and it is expected that there will be more policy support in the second half of the year [23]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - **Supply**: - In July, China's copper ore imports increased, with a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded. However, the tight supply situation of copper mines has not improved significantly, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined slightly [27][30]. - In July, China's refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, but a month - on - month decrease. In August, the number of smelters reducing production increased due to the tight supply of copper concentrates and cold materials [37]. - **Inventory**: Currently, copper inventories are relatively high. As of August 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 275,200 tons, the bonded - area copper inventory was 83,300 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 81,700 tons. With the arrival of the peak season from September to October, there may be a possibility of destocking [33]. - **Demand**: - In July, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%, mainly driven by strong domestic demand [39]. - From January to July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 18.2% year - on - year. The installed capacity of new energy sources such as solar and wind power increased rapidly, and the investment in power grid projects increased by 12.5% year - on - year [43]. - In July, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased year - on - year. The production of new energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The automobile industry is expected to continue to drive copper consumption [47]. - In July, the production of household refrigerators and air conditioners in China decreased month - on - month. The production of refrigerators decreased due to the end of promotional activities and inventory pressure, and the production of air conditioners decreased due to the return to rationality of the market and the suppression of export demand by US tariffs [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the market sentiment in the black - series market continues to be weak. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai has no substantial boost to steel demand. With the upcoming military parade environmental protection restrictions, the production of finished products and the supply of iron ore are expected to be reduced, and the demand side is under pressure. For glass and soda ash, the start - up rate and weekly output of float glass are stable, and the factory inventory has stopped rising and started to decline, with slightly improved market sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have limited improvement, and the main contract fluctuates weakly and steadily [63][66]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black - series are mainly in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". The bottom center of glass has moved up this week, while soda ash lacks upward driving force and mainly fluctuates widely in the short term [64][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the closing price of the main futures contract of rebar (RB2510) decreased from 3119 to 3090, a decrease of 29.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; hot - rolled coil (HC2601) decreased from 3361 to 3346, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of - 0.4%; iron ore (I2601) increased from 770 to 787.5, an increase of 17.5 with an increase rate of 2.3%; coke (J2601) decreased from 1679 to 1643, a decrease of 35.5 with a decline rate of - 2.1%; coking coal (JM2601) decreased from 1162 to 1151, a decrease of 11.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; glass (FG601) increased from 1173 to 1182, an increase of 9.0 with an increase rate of 0.8%; soda ash (SA601) decreased from 1326 to 1296, a decrease of 30.0 with a decline rate of - 2.3%. The corresponding spot prices and basis are also provided [2]. Rebar - **Profit**: On August 28, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared with August 21 [6]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons; the rebar output was 220.56 million tons, a decrease of 5.91 million tons [11]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 29, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 204.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.14 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 102,737 tons [15]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 453.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.26 million tons; the factory inventory was reported at 169.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91 million tons [20]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 22, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3115.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [28]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 29, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 334.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.9 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.7 million tons [33]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the number of operating float - glass production lines was reported at 224, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as last week; as of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 75.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points [38]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6256.6 million weight boxes, a decrease of 104 million weight boxes compared with August 22; the available days of factory inventory were 26.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 days [42]. - **Demand**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared with July 15 [46]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 82.47%, a decrease of 6.01 percentage points compared with last week; the output was reported at 71.91 million tons, a decrease of 5.23 million tons compared with last week [51]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, the factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 186.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.33 million tons compared with August 22 [56]. - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of August 29, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.02%, an increase of 8.22 percentage points compared with August 22 [60]. Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment is weak, and production is expected to be restricted. In the short term, the main contracts are in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [63][64]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment of glass has improved slightly, and soda ash shows a weak and stable fluctuation. In the short term, the bottom of glass has moved up, and soda ash fluctuates widely [66][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].