当前下游加工企业普遍反映终端电子消费订单较为疲弱，采购态度趋于谨慎，高企的锡价对实际需求形 成明显抑制，基本以销定产和制定采购计划。随着一批在途锡锭陆续抵达交割仓库，社会库存正进入阶 段性累库通道。叠加春节假期临近，部分下游客户已开始减少甚至暂停接单，生产节奏逐步放缓。若后 续需求持续低迷，或将导致库存水平进一步攀升，对锡价构成下行压力。 对于后市，宏源期货评论表示，沃什实施降息 缩表担忧有所缓解，但是国内锡精矿加工费环升引导供 需趋松预期，海内外精炼锡库存量环比增加，叠加贝森特表示奉行强势美元政策，或使沪锡价格有所调 整。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡下行，主力合约收跌7.01%，报365140元/吨。锡市整体维持供需双弱格局，锡矿供应仍然偏 紧，下游加工企业当期订单偏低，高价对实际消费抑制明显。锡基本面变化有限，近期主要受宏观情绪 引导，资金参与度高，导致锡价波动较大。 国内冶炼厂开工率保持平稳，云南等供应端主产地整体锡矿供应依旧存在偏紧预期，江西地区受制于废 料短缺，精锡产量提升困难。印尼当地锡锭出口已基本恢复常态化，后期出口或将稳定。缅甸地震暂无 证据显示影响矿区生产，后续关注事态进展，去年11和12月份， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported by the rising prices of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain under the situation of double reduction in supply and demand. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have a clear plan to stop production, and the supply tends to shrink. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating to clear out [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 2, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,880 yuan/ton and closed at 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of (-105) yuan/ton or (-1.18)% compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 236,313 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 1, 2026, was 13,943 lots, a change of 288 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 (100) yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared with the previous week [1]. - The supply side of industrial silicon is expected to have production cuts and shutdowns in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the supply side tends to shrink [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the short term due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax. However, the demand for industrial silicon is sluggish due to inventory accumulation and production cuts by large polysilicon manufacturers in February. The organic silicon industry has a production cut expectation, and the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend, and the operating rate is expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening in the future [2]. Polysilicon - On February 2, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 47,250 yuan/ton and closing at 47,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 1.66% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 40,278 (42,513 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 17,789 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 47.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 47.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 333,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29GW, with a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,200.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [3]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - **Logic**: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - **Logic**: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - **Outlook**: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - **Logic**: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - **View**: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - **Logic**: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - **View**: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - **Logic**: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - **View**: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - **View**: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - **Logic**: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - **View**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - **Logic**: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].

■韩昱 《报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达到5002吨，创历史新高。细分来看，投资需求的大幅攀升成为 推动2025年黄金总需求刷新历史纪录的主要驱动力。不仅是全球央行在增持黄金，私人投资者也在通过 多种渠道配置黄金资产。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示， 2025年全球央行购金需求依然保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金。 可以看出，在"去美元化"持续发酵的同时，全球央行出于多元化配置等考量，黄金配置意愿仍较强，这 将成为支撑金价的主要因素之一。 其次，全球风险事件频发，黄金作为传统避险资产的风险溢价将加大。 国际地缘政治冲突、美元信用相关的金融风险等，都使得市场正在改变对全球风险的定价，即不再局限 于短期或者单次的冲突或危机，而是将相关风险视为长期存在的结构性变量，这在黄金方面形成了持续 的风险溢价。 最后，价格的形成受到供需关系的影响，黄金的总需求持续增加成为支撑金价上涨的底层逻辑。 最近，短短3个交易日内，国际金价从5500美元/盎司以上的高位，一度跌至接近4400美元/盎司水平。 同时，已有多家银行相继调整积存金相关业务，并发布风险提示 ...

Core Insights - The procurement price of N220 carbon black has shown certain volatility over the past few years, with current prices ranging between 2000-4000 RMB per ton, influenced by factors such as quality, supply-demand dynamics, and environmental regulations [2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - N220 carbon black procurement prices have generally increased in recent years, although the fluctuations have not been significant [2] - The primary factor affecting the procurement price is the supply-demand relationship, where increased market demand can lead to price hikes, while decreased demand may result in price reductions [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Environmental requirements have increasingly impacted the procurement prices, as manufacturers may need to invest in environmental facilities and improve production processes, leading to higher production costs that are passed on to customers [3] - Changes in the international raw materials market, including fluctuations in energy prices, transportation costs, and exchange rates, also affect the procurement prices of N220 carbon black [3] Group 3: Strategic Implications - Understanding the trends and factors influencing N220 carbon black prices is crucial for companies to manage procurement costs and make informed operational decisions [3] - Companies can potentially lower procurement costs and enhance production efficiency and competitiveness through timely market research, effective supply chain management, and flexible procurement strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in January 2026 exhibited a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by macro policy expectations, seasonal demand effects, and weak market transactions [10][11]. January Market Review - The overall steel price in January showed a pattern of "initial bottoming and recovery, followed by high-level decline, and a low-level rebound before another drop," with a core operating range of 3085-3198 yuan/ton [11]. - The first phase (January 5-7) saw a weak bottoming trend due to seasonal demand shrinkage and cautious winter storage intentions from traders, leading to a weak supply-demand dynamic [11]. - The second phase (January 8-21) experienced high-level fluctuations with no clear trend, as the market faced increasing supply-demand contradictions and inventory accumulation [12]. - The third phase (January 22-30) marked a low-level rebound driven by strengthening cost support and marginal improvements in market sentiment, although the overall weak supply-demand situation persisted [13]. February Steel Price Outlook - February is expected to be influenced by traditional holiday effects, with positive expectations for policy benefits from the March meetings providing support for the steel market [14]. - The central bank's announcement of a comprehensive monetary policy package, including potential rate cuts, lays a foundation for macro expectations, although immediate impacts on February are limited [14]. - The industry anticipates increased inventory pressure in February, with a significant reduction in demand before the holiday, which may suppress steel prices [14]. - Overall, February is projected to see a limited increase in prices, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation before the holiday and potential price increases afterward [14]. Operational Recommendations - Steel prices should be approached cautiously, with opportunities for minor replenishment only when prices return to undervalued zones, while profits can be gradually realized [15].