Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company's gold production decreased by 10% year-on-year to 9,771 kg (314,142 oz), while gold sales also fell by 6% to 9,784 kg (314,563 oz) [2] - The total cash cost for gold in Q1 2025 was $1,657 per ounce (388.90 RMB per gram), reflecting a 22% increase year-on-year [2] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) rose by 24% year-on-year to $1,971 per ounce (462.59 RMB per gram) [2] - The average gold price received by the company in Q1 2025 was $2,661 per ounce (624.54 RMB per gram), marking a 33% increase compared to the previous year [2] Production and Operational Performance - The company's total gold revenue in Q1 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, rising from 12.692 billion ZAR ($673 million) to 15.469 billion ZAR ($837 million) [4] - Operating costs for Q1 2025 were 9.56 billion ZAR ($517 million), a 15% increase year-on-year [4] - Production profit for Q1 2025 was 5.909 billion ZAR ($320 million), reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [4] - Capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was 2.9 billion ZAR ($116 million), up 45% year-on-year [4] - Net cash increased by 49% from 7.283 billion ZAR ($386 million) at the end of 2024 to 10.831 billion ZAR ($592 million) by March 31, 2025 [4] Financial Guidance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company has raised its underground mining grade guidance to above 6.00 g/t (previously 5.80 g/t), with total production expected to reach between 1.4 million to 1.5 million ounces [9] - The overall AISC guidance is set between 1.02 million ZAR/kg ($1,717 per ounce) and 1.10 million ZAR/kg ($1,851 per ounce) [9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, gold production decreased by 10.84% quarter-on-quarter to 125,000 ounces (3.89 tons), and adjusted net profit decreased by 42.05% to $59.8 million [1][5] - The average realized gold price in Q1 2025 was $2,802 per ounce, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.46% and a year-on-year increase of 35.43% [2] - Total cash costs increased by 21.61% quarter-on-quarter to $1,193 per ounce, while all-in sustaining costs rose by 35.41% to $1,805 per ounce [2] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $333 million, a decrease of 11.39% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 19.96% year-on-year [3] Production and Sales Summary - Q1 2025 gold production was 125,000 ounces (3.89 tons), down 10.84% from the previous quarter and down 7.89% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gold sales were 117,583 ounces (3.66 tons), a decrease of 16.76% quarter-on-quarter and 11.49% year-on-year [1] - The company expects production to increase in Q2 2025 and throughout the remainder of the year [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was $333 million, a decrease of 11.39% from the previous quarter but an increase of 19.96% year-on-year [3] - Q1 2025 net profit was $15.2 million, down 82.65% quarter-on-quarter and down 63.90% year-on-year [5] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was $59.8 million, a decrease of 42.05% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 16.80% year-on-year [5] Growth Projects - The Island Gold Phase III expansion project is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, leading to further production growth at lower costs [8] - The Lynn Lake project is anticipated to begin production in the first half of 2028, with an average annual production of 176,000 ounces over the first ten years [9] - The PDA project in Mexico is expected to start construction in mid-2025, with an estimated initial capital of $165 million and a projected internal rate of return (IRR) of 46% at a gold price of $1,950 per ounce [11][12] 2025 Guidance - The company expects gold production for 2025 to be between 580,000 and 630,000 ounces, with a significant increase anticipated in the second half of the year [16] - Total cash costs for 2025 are projected to be between $875 and $925 per ounce, with all-in sustaining costs expected to be between $1,250 and $1,300 per ounce [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6.3%；以 旧换新政策带动国内商品消费积极改善，也对消费制造业营收有拉动，行业实际营收增速同比边际上行 ...

这是半佛仙人的第1756篇原创 1 巴奴的杜中兵老师最近因为说年轻人要学会延迟满足、不要急着吃火锅被骂飞了，然后现 在又道歉了，说在反省自己爹味重了。 他说的那些话确实低情商，爹味重。 虽然同行都是这么想的，但他直接说出来，那挨骂属于活该。 不过我倒更希望身边这种人多一些。 没错，跟胖东来是一个风格的处理方式。 这时候你看杜 老师 这人，直播爹味十足，但在关键问题上真的出成本，这不就是那种典 型的大哥吗？ 大哥人不坏 ，真性情 ，但大哥那个嘴真就是充满爹味，总想教育你，你肯定嫌他话多， 平时相处不那么舒服，但有事儿真的上，该掏钱的时候绝不含糊。 2 真的，杜中兵老师讲的这些话从当老板的角度看匪夷所思，开门做生意哪有让顾客不要来 的？ 实在不行你不讲话不就完事儿了？ 但从当大哥的角度非常合理。 为啥？ 这里要提另一个新闻了，2 0 23年发生的事情，当时巴奴旗下超岛火锅的羊肉有些问题，他 们一口气儿赔了8 0 0多W出去，给消费者，真的赔，赔到消费者都傻眼了。 同时关店。 是不是感觉风格很熟悉？ 这就是大哥，大哥想教育人的冲动甚至超过了作为火锅店老板希望顾客在他店里吃掉最后 一个子的冲动。 不管是从企业公关的角 ...