1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the commodity futures agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, is that the short - term and medium - term trends are mainly in a state of shock, with an intraday view of being shock - biased strong [6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: China's large procurement gap in the fourth quarter is the core contradiction. The intense competition between North and South American exports will affect the premium price and futures far - month contracts. The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the price of soybean meal. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and after the market sentiment warms up, the price stops falling and stabilizes, and may turn to shock operation [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [7][8] - **Core Logic**: U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are the main influencing factors. The increase in U.S. soybean oil demand supports soybean crushing, and speculative funds' continuous increase in net long positions in U.S. soybean oil provides capital support. The increase in domestic soybean oil export demand strengthens the expectation of inventory reduction, and the short - term price is in a shock - biased strong trend [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [7][9] - **Core Logic**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand are the main influencing factors. Although the production and demand environment of Malaysian palm oil has weakened, the good expectation of Indonesian biodiesel demand and the signing of a free - trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia boost the export demand. After the release of price volatility risk, the short - term price is in a shock - biased strong trend [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, with the restart of Tianjin Bohua's PDH unit in early August and the expected release of new production capacity. The demand has staged support due to the restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. The rebound in oil prices provides short - term cost support, but prices are mainly under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [1][2] Summary by Directory Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene prices are in a low - level weak oscillation, showing a negative basis pattern [14] Propylene Monthly Output - In July, China's propylene plant output reached 5.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,400 tons (2.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 13.0%. The output remains at a high level in the same period [22] Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The profits of propylene production by different processes decreased month - on - month. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was in the red, and the loss of methanol - to - propylene profitability deepened. In July, the overall propylene capacity utilization rate was 71.6%, with a narrow month - on - month fluctuation [24] Propylene Outer - Market Spread and Import - Export - In June, China's propylene imports increased month - on - month, driven by imports from Japan, South Korea, and increased supply from Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are still the traditional major import sources. In June, China's propylene imports were 253,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.0669 million tons [39] Propylene Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The overall downstream operating rate increased limitedly. End - users mainly purchased at low prices, and demand resilience was still insufficient. The restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants provided staged demand support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. In terms of downstream profits, the profit of the propylene oxide industry rebounded significantly, while the profit of the n - butanol industry decreased month - on - month [53] Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory in factories continued to rise, being higher year - on - year. The inventory of PP powder, the main downstream consumer, declined from a high level [75]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fundamentals for the main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) suggest a strategy of short - selling at high prices. Hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and reduce positions and take profit on the 10 - 02 reverse spread. The market may experience a phased decline and return to rationality, with the trading perspective likely to focus more on the industry's own fundamental logic. Additionally, pay attention to the short - term emotional impact of China - US tariff negotiations on the market next week [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - In the past week, the container shipping index (European Line) oscillated at a high level. The main 2510 contract closed at 1527.5 points; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1720.2 points, and the 10 - 12 spread was reported at - 193 points [6] - For the futures contracts, EC2508 closed at 2,212.6 with a daily decline of 0.80%, EC2510 at 1,527.5 with a daily decline of 2.71%, and EC2512 at 1,720.2 with a daily decline of 1.56% [1] 3.2 Freight Rates - In the spot freight market, in early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, while Maersk's opening price drops by $100 - 200/FEU, and the average quote of the PA Alliance drops to around $3100/FEU. The freight rate has peaked in early August, with the average static quote in week 32 around $3360/FEU. Observe the rate of decline in the second half of August [7] - SCFIS: The European route was at 2,400.50 points with a weekly decline of 0.9%, and the US West route was at 1,301.81 points with a weekly increase of 2.8%. SCFI: The European route was at $2,090/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 0.5%, and the US West route was at $2,067/FEU with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In August, the number of blank sailings increased by 1, but due to MSC's replacement of small ships with large ones, the overall market capacity remained stable at around 321,000 TEU/week. In September, the number of blank sailings remained at 2, and the number of pending voyages decreased from 7 to 4. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity in September was revised up to 314,000 TEU/week, slightly lower than August's 321,000 TEU/week but higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week [8] - **Demand**: It is expected that the cargo volume in early August (weeks 31 and 32) will remain resilient, with Christmas orders likely to be shipped by early August. There is a high probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will occur in mid - to - late August. Observe the timing of the inflection point and the rate of decline [8] 3.4 Macro News - The Houthi rebels have upgraded their maritime blockade and will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israel. - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oils**: The overall situation of grains and oils is complex. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by factors such as domestic auctions and new - season supply. The price of peanuts is influenced by import volume, weather, and planting area. The supply - demand relationship of various oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil) is also different, with different price trends and trading strategies [3][4][5]. - **Feed**: The feed market is also in a state of change. The price of corn is affected by factors such as import volume and regional supply, and the price of soybean meal is related to the price of CBOT soybeans and the progress of purchasing [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The livestock and poultry market is sensitive to policies. The prices of pigs and eggs are affected by factors such as market sentiment, consumption seasonality, and production costs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Market Judgment** - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans (both domestic and imported), the supply is expected to increase, and the prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For peanuts, the new - season production is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be range - bound. For oils, the fundamentals of soybean oil are weak, while palm oil has potential positive factors [12]. - **Proteins**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rise, mainly due to factors such as the reduction of soybean purchases in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to be range - bound, and short - selling orders are recommended to be reduced at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of pigs is expected to rebound, and the price of eggs is expected to bottom out. Appropriate trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. However, for soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low prices is recommended [14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Different trading strategies are recommended for different combinations of varieties, such as short - selling operations for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - selling operations for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the current spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures trading [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Daily Data**: The table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory, operating rates of oil plants, and other data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts, which reflect the current supply and demand situation of the industry [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from different countries and different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, and operating rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Daily Data**: The daily price data of pigs and eggs in different regions are provided, including spot prices, price changes, and other information [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, production rates, and inventory, are presented [23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: The charts show the price trends of pigs and eggs, including futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as breeding costs and profits [27][28][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil [35][37][40]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts show the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and other data in the United States, as well as the domestic soybean oil plant operating rates and inventory [46][47][48]. - **Peanuts**: It includes the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic markets, as well as the peanut processing profit and inventory data [50][51]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: The charts show the inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption data of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn alcohol enterprises [54][55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes the operating rates, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch enterprises [56][58]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts show the spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [58][61][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the weather conditions in the United States, the growth progress of soybeans, and the inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal [65][67][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The historical volatility data of various futures varieties and the trading volume and open interest data of corn options are provided, which can be used as a reference for options trading [71][73][78]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The warehouse receipt data of various futures varieties are provided, which can reflect the market supply and demand situation to a certain extent [75][77][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans (domestic), the auction of domestic soybeans was concluded at a premium, supporting the strengthening of the soybean No.1 price. With the new soybeans gradually entering the market, the supply is increasing. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of soybean No.1, focusing on the key pressure level of the 09 contract in the range of 4,250 - 4,300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4,000 - 4,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Regarding peanuts, the expected low carry - over inventory of the old season, along with the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delayed opening of the Port of Port Sudan, has led to a shortage of imported peanuts. The price of peanuts has rebounded from the low - level shock. However, with the alleviation of high - temperature conditions in Henan, the upward momentum of the futures price has weakened. The expected high yield and lower planting costs put pressure on the far - month contracts. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 10 - contract at high levels and try short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [3]. - In the case of soybean oil, the price decline is mainly due to the drop in crude oil and international oil prices. With sufficient supply and weak demand, it is recommended to consider closing long positions and observing for now [4]. - For rapeseed oil, although the inventory has declined from the peak but remains high. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction. It is advisable to reduce long positions and pay attention to Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Concerning palm oil, there are positive factors in both supply and demand in Indonesia. However, due to the seasonal production increase and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - term, it is recommended to partially close long positions [5]. - Regarding soybean meal, the price increase is due to concerns about the far - month supply. The market shows a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation". It is recommended to hold long positions in the M2511 contract [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the prices are in a range - bound state. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7]. - In the case of live pigs, the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 09 contract and buy the 2511 contract at low levels [8]. - Regarding eggs, the price has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly, pay attention to the positive spread between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract at low levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - The market logic of soybeans (domestic) includes premium - priced auctions and the gradual increase in supply. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [3][12]. - For peanuts, the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and try short positions in the far - month contracts [3][12]. - Soybean oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to close long positions [4][12]. - Rapeseed oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [4][12]. - Palm oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to partially close long positions [5][12]. - Soybean meal's 11 - contract is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions [5][12]. - Rapeseed meal's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [6][12]. - Corn's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Corn starch's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Live pigs' 09 contract is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions [8][12]. - Eggs' 09 contract is expected to find the bottom through fluctuations. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8][9][12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For cross - period arbitrage, it is recommended to observe for most varieties such as soybeans, peanuts, and oils. However, a positive spread strategy is recommended for the 11 - 1 contract of soybean meal, and a positive spread strategy at low levels is recommended for live pigs and eggs [13][14]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, a bearish operation is recommended for the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bullish operation for the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and it is recommended to observe for other spreads [14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [19][20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [20]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [20]. 3. Livestock - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data, are provided [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of live pigs and eggs are presented [26][27][28] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Charts related to the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts are provided [35][36][38] - **Feed**: Charts of the inventory, consumption, and processing profits of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal are presented [53][54][56] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the trading volume, open interest, and volatility of corn options, as well as historical and implied volatility, are provided [74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on these varieties [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures price shows a pattern of being stronger in the domestic market than in the international market. The forward purchase of soybeans in China is still slow, and the supply pressure at present has not been transmitted to the forward months, with forward supply remaining tight. Under the high - operating - rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory has been rising for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis of soybean meal persists. In the short term, the supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oil market shows a trend of rising and then falling due to the decline in international oil prices. Palm oil leads the rise in the oil sector, indicating that the rebound of the oil sector reflects the energy attribute of oils. Supported by the positive expectations of biodiesel demand in the US and Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil and soybean oil futures prices remains strong. In the short term, the palm oil futures price may turn to oscillating operation due to the fluctuation of international oil prices [7]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].