1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, various ratings such as "oscillating strongly," "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," "rising," and "falling" are given [1][4][6][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships of various commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][4][6][8][10]. - The upward breakthrough of stock index futures requires further accumulation of policy and capital benefits, while the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bond markets are expected to have no trend - like market due to uncertainties [1]. - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting their prices. For example, commodities with oversupply are likely to have downward pressure on prices, while those with tight supply may see price increases [2][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching the upper resistance level, and further breakthrough requires the accumulation of policy and capital benefits. The short - term upward momentum is slightly weakened, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to lay out IF and IM on dips and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations on market risk preference [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is oscillating. There are uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - economic conditions and domestic policy rhythms. The bond market is expected to have no trend - like market. In the short term, the capital market and short - term macro - events are the main driving factors. There is some support in the bond market under the loose liquidity environment, but the upward momentum is cautious [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are oscillating strongly. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiations may achieve limited/phase results. The US employment data is resilient, but the risk of re - inflation still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or continue to hold short - selling out - of - the - money put options for gold. For silver, continue to hold long positions in the 08 contract or hold short - selling out - of - the money put options [1][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating. The macro - economic situation has high uncertainty, and the supply of the mine end is still tight. The demand is cautious due to the macro - uncertainty and the domestic consumption off - season. The LME inventory is continuously decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may magnify price fluctuations [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is oscillating, and alumina is oscillating weakly. The supply of alumina has uncertainties, but the short - term impact is weakened. The resumption of production increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to run close to the cost line. The supply of aluminum has clear constraints, but the demand policy has uncertainties [4]. - Nickel: The price is oscillating. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are policy concerns. The downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation. It is not advisable to chase short positions for now, and continue to hold previously short - sold call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Styrene: The support is strengthening, and new long positions can be entered for EB2508 [2]. - PTA: The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the previously short positions of PTA2509 can be held [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - sold call options of LC2509 - C - 60000 can be held [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, the technical side shows signs of over - decline repair. It is recommended to enter short - selling put options [6]. - Crude Oil: The price is oscillating weakly. Although there are positive expectations for trade negotiations and the OPEC production increase is lower than expected, the consumption side is not good, and the global inventory is difficult to reduce. It is not advisable to chase long positions for now [8]. - Polyester: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the market lacks upward driving force [10]. - Methanol: The price is rising. The spot trading has improved significantly, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. Unless the supply is significantly reduced, the price is difficult to rise sharply [10]. - Polyolefins: The price is falling. The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply pressure. If the inventory accumulates in the upper and middle reaches, the price will further decline [10]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore: All are oscillating. The Sino - US trade negotiations are in progress, and the market sentiment is cautious. The demand for construction steel is in the off - season, and the supply of iron ore is expected to increase. For rebar, continue to hold short - sold out - of - the money call options; for hot - rolled coil, hold previously recommended short positions; for iron ore, cautious investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking Coal and Coke: Both are oscillating weakly. The supply of coking coal is in an oversupply situation, and the demand of steel and coking enterprises is in the off - season. For coke, although there may be production restrictions due to environmental inspections, the terminal demand is weak, and the demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate [8]. Building Materials - Soda Ash and Float Glass: Both are in a bearish trend. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose compared to demand, and the high inventory is difficult to digest. For float glass, the demand is affected by the season and the real - estate market, and the inventory is high. Hold previously recommended short positions for soda ash and float glass and consider relevant spread strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is oscillating. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the price trend depends on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the rubber price is difficult to have a trend - like rebound [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米区间低多 生猪鸡蛋供给增量持续兑现 2025年06月07日 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 更多精彩内容 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 Ø 玉米 长线区间；中线低多；短线震荡偏强 观点：短期来看，新麦集中上市，市场流通粮源增多，小麦替代性价比较高，短期现货局部由弱转强、整体稳定。中期来看，进口谷物缩量+替代减量驱 动下国内供给宽松格局有望逐渐趋紧，现货进一步下跌空间十分有限。而且，当前盘面挤升水基本完成，或维持波段偏强运行；长期来看，政策粮源投 放+小麦替代预期或将限制价格向上空间，我国玉米仍然维持进口替代+种植成本的定价逻辑，重点关注政策导向。 策略：长线区间运行；中线维持低多思路；短线支撑压力并存，上方压力未有效突破或继续维持区间运行，2507合约2340-2350压力有效，下方支撑关注 2310-2320；2509合约2360-2370压力有效，下方支撑关注2330-2340；若有效突破压力则有望转强。 Ø 生猪 长线高空；中线区间；短线弱势延续 观点：短期来看，阶段性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean No. 1**: The price in the Northeast market is stable, with tight supply in the producing areas. The demand in the consumer areas is weak. The 07 contract is recommended for short - term observation, with key pressure at 4170 - 4200 yuan/ton and support at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Peanut**: The short - term price fluctuates. The 10 - contract has support at 8244 - 8280 and pressure at 8520 - 8528. New - season peanut acreage is expected to increase slightly year - on - year [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe, with support at 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton and pressure at 7850 - 7900 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory is high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term. The 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 8800 - 8810 and pressure at 9390 - 9399 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term price fluctuates. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels. The 09 contract has support at 7928 - 7980 and pressure at 8332 - 8376 [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The supply - side negative factors are still at play, but it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. The 09 contract is recommended for light - position long - term trials, with support at 2930 - 2940 and pressure at 3100 - 3150 [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 2648 - 2509 and pressure at 2637 - 2649 [12]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The 07 contract has support at 2290 - 2300 and pressure at 2430 - 2450 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. The 07 contract has support at 2640 - 2650 and pressure at 2790 - 2800 [12]. - **Live Pigs**: The 09 contract is in a weak state at a low level. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips, with a reference range of 13000 - 13500 [12]. - **Eggs**: The 07 contract is recommended to close the previous short - 7 - long - 9 position at low levels and then observe. Consider a rebound after an extreme decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: Different varieties have different market logics. For example, soybean meal is expected to bottom out and rebound, while rapeseed oil is expected to decline weakly. Corresponding trading strategies are given for each variety [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage**: For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage of different commodities, different strategies such as waiting and positive/negative arbitrage are recommended [13][14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil for different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It presents the import costs of corn from different countries and months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and other data of corn and corn starch [19]. - **Livestock Farming**: It provides daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, sales, and profit data [21][23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, as well as prices of related products such as piglets and chicken eggs [26][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, export, inventory, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil data [35][37][39] - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic soybean oil data [43][44] - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, and processing data [50][52] - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn inventory, sales progress, import volume, and processing profit [54][56][57] - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [59][60] - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, and inventory [61][63][65] - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth, inventory, and other data [72][74] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various commodities [75][76] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipts for various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn [78][79]

双焦期货周度报告 2025年06月03日 上游持续累库 双焦价格下行 摘 要： 行情回顾：焦炭累积降价两轮100-110元/吨。终端对于炼焦 煤采购节奏放缓，焦钢以去库为主，只维持刚需采购，对原料煤 保持较强的压价意图，而贸易商投机意愿冰冷，降价压力向煤矿 传导顺畅，国内各煤种价格普遍下跌50-150元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，个别煤矿因事故和检修、产量有所下 滑，另有部分煤矿受库存及亏损压力有减产行为，但主产地煤矿 多数维持正常生产，焦煤产量整体高位维稳。进口方面，甘其毛 都口岸日均通关增加112车，维持高位；澳媒价格坚挺，进口性价 比暂无。需求端，焦炭产量仍维持高位，但提降周期内焦企原料 补库积极性下降，焦煤上游库存压力加剧，流拍现象仍未好转。 总体上，当前焦煤市场供需仍趋宽松。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822- ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种策 略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需 求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库存， 生柴需求，国内原料供应节 奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏 ...

2025年05月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：基差持续上涨，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：持续去库，但盘面上方空间有限，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：华南降价，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 12 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 14 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 15 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 17 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 19 | | 甲醇：短期震荡，中期趋势仍偏弱 | 20 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：民用气走弱，近端价格承压 | 27 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅回跌，短期重回震荡走势 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：近月高位震荡，10-12反套持 ...

2025年05月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：长丝检修落地，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边逢高空，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：区间震荡，出货转淡 | 8 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 18 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：民用气继续企稳，盘面支撑走强 | 25 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 28 | | 燃料油：日盘跌势延续，短期偏弱震荡 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差走强 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Alumina, Cotton [1][2][10] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Methanol, Polyolefin, Rubber [1][4][10] - Sideways: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol [2][4][6][8] - Sideways with a Downward Bias: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coking Coal, Coke, Soda Ash, Float Glass [5][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily strategy for various futures products, analyzing their fundamentals and market conditions, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2]. - Due to factors such as policy uncertainty, supply - demand imbalances, and seasonal effects, different futures products show different trends [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Category Equity Index Futures - The downward risk of the stock index continues to weaken, but the upward movement awaits the accumulation of trading volume. In the current shock - building phase, focus on the long - position opportunities of IF and IM corresponding to domestic demand consumption and the technology main line [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, and the long - term downward trend of yields is clear, but the short - term new driving forces are limited, and the range - bound pattern is expected to continue [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are running strongly due to the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in AU2508, and new orders can consider selling out - of - the - money put options on gold/silver or buying on pullbacks. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to move within a range due to macro uncertainties and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina sentiment is bullish because of the fermentation of Guinea's mining policy, but the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [4]. - Nickel prices are in a difficult position, with the surplus contradiction continuing, but the cost support is strong, and the range - bound pattern is difficult to reverse [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon futures are expected to continue their downward trend due to the expected increase in supply and high inventory [4]. - Crude oil market has high supply concerns, and the strategy is mainly short - allocation, paying attention to OPEC's decision on the July production plan [8]. - PTA and ethylene glycol markets have short - term adjustments, but the downside support is strong [8]. - Methanol prices are falling due to increased arrivals and production [10]. Building Materials - Soda ash has no clear signal to stop falling, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - Float glass prices are not expected to bottom out and rebound before a new round of cold repairs by glass factories, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions in the FG509 contract [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar is expected to be weak in the second quarter, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [5][6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and new orders are advised to wait and see [6]. - Iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus in the future, and it is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for opportunities to short far - month contracts [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, and the strategy is short - allocation [6]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening of demand and the possible second - round price cut [6]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are expected to rise as tariffs support export orders, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas and macro - changes [10]. - Rubber prices are in a weak range - bound pattern due to seasonal production increases and poor demand transmission, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [10].