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策略深度报告:如何看待特朗普TACO交易?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 14:21
Core Insights - The "TACO trade" has significantly influenced asset pricing and volatility since Trump's inauguration in January 2025, with a notable convergence in the contribution of fundamental data such as inflation and employment to asset pricing [1] - During Trump's pressure phase, it is advisable to buy safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, while sectors such as agriculture in A-shares, healthcare in Hong Kong, and utilities in the US stock market have shown relative stability [1] - In the retreat phase, equity assets are favored, with A-share financial and technology sectors performing better [1] - The current key risk overseas is the slow pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which raises concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [1] TACO Trade Strategy Cases - Case I highlights the liquidity shock to global capital markets from reciprocal tariffs [2] - Case II discusses Trump's tariff pressure on the EU and its market implications [2] - Case III examines the interplay of interests between Musk and Trump, showcasing the TACO trade's dynamics [2] Deep Reasons for TACO Trade - The TACO trade stems from Trump's negotiation strategy of "seeking the upper hand" [3] - The Trump administration aims to balance multiple objectives in negotiations [3] - Non-US economies like China have gained more negotiating power [3] Asset-Level Review of TACO Trade - In the first half (January 13 - April 7), the market experienced a "stagflation trade" with US stocks declining, US bonds rising, and non-US currencies strengthening [4][23] - The second half (April 8 - July 4) saw a rebound in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 32% and the S&P 500 recovering significantly [4][24] Equity Sector Review of TACO Trade - In the first half, defensive sectors in A-shares outperformed, while technology and healthcare in Hong Kong showed strong performance [5][27] - In the second half, financial and military sectors in A-shares excelled, with Hong Kong's financial, healthcare, energy, and new consumption sectors also performing well [5][32] TACO Trade Outlook - The domestic equity market is expected to be "self-reliant," with recommendations to focus on banks as a stabilizing force and to balance investments in brokerages, military, and TMT sectors [6] - Globally, the trend of "de-dollarization" is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on rebalancing dollar asset allocations [6] - The potential for a "Buy The Dip" strategy remains effective, but caution is advised regarding the risk of stagflation [6]
特朗普政策摇摆原因与长期美债定价新框架
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-29 12:47
Group 1: Trump's Policy Logic - The logic behind Trump's policy is structured, focusing on increasing government revenue through tariffs, promoting manufacturing return, and adjusting tariffs based on industry rather than country [2][3] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan aims to reduce taxes and spending while raising the debt ceiling, with projected federal revenue loss of approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [3] - Deregulation is intended to stimulate the economy by removing banking regulations related to cryptocurrency and expediting government approval processes [3] Group 2: Market and Election Pressures - Market pressure plays a significant role in Trump's policy adjustments, particularly in response to movements in the U.S. Treasury market, with a tendency to ease policies when 10-year Treasury yields rise significantly [4][5] - Election pressures are also a factor, as economic downturns and inflation from tariff wars could negatively impact Trump's voter base, necessitating a softening of tariff policies [6] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - High U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to be sustained due to the Federal Reserve's current stance and the need for policy space amid economic uncertainties [8][9] - The long-term outlook suggests that U.S. Treasury yields may exceed nominal economic growth rates, which could suppress economic growth [9][10] - A new framework for long-term Treasury pricing is proposed, incorporating a sovereign risk premium to account for market concerns about U.S. debt [20][22] Group 4: Broader Economic Considerations - The U.S. is seeking new support for the dollar through high-tech exports and controlling supply chains, which may mitigate inflation domestically [23][24] - The U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling situation is critical, with current measures to manage liquidity potentially leading to a "fiscal window" before a new debt agreement is reached [25][26]
宋雪涛:马斯克之后,DOGE何去何从?
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-06-20 00:25
Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of the relationship between Trump and Musk, highlighting their initial close alliance and subsequent public fallout due to ideological differences and personal conflicts [4][5][7] - Musk's role in the Trump administration was initially seen as pivotal, addressing key economic issues like inflation and national debt, but conflicts over tariffs and fiscal policies led to a gradual deterioration of their relationship [3][6][8] - The article emphasizes that the breakdown of their partnership was not sudden but rather a result of systemic erosion of trust and influence, driven by policy decisions that conflicted with Musk's business philosophy [7][8] Group 2 - The "DOGE" initiative, which aimed for significant budget cuts, achieved approximately $175 billion in spending reductions during Musk's tenure, representing 8.75% of the $2 trillion target [11] - Despite these achievements, the article notes that the entrenched structural resistance within the U.S. government limits the effectiveness of top-down reforms like those attempted by Musk [11][14] - The article suggests that the future of "DOGE" may transition into a more systematic and institutionalized phase under Trump's leadership, focusing on fiscal sustainability and efficiency improvements [15][16] Group 3 - The article critiques the systemic inefficiencies of the U.S. government, attributing them to a culture of over-regulation that fosters a compliance-driven mentality among civil servants, which ultimately hampers effective governance [12][14] - Examples of inefficiencies, such as the prolonged delays in major projects like the California high-speed rail and the new Air Force One, illustrate the challenges faced in government operations [13] - The article posits that for "DOGE" to succeed, it must address these deep-rooted structural issues rather than merely implementing superficial cost-cutting measures [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the misjudgment of Wall Street regarding Trump's economic policies, particularly the "TACO" trade, which underestimated his commitment to fiscal tightening and debt sustainability [17][18] - It highlights the potential for Trump's future policies to diverge from market expectations, particularly if he pursues aggressive spending cuts alongside tax reductions, which could lead to economic recession [18] - The overarching narrative suggests that Trump's fiscal strategies are aimed at ensuring long-term financial health and maintaining the global status of the U.S. dollar, despite short-term economic pain [18]
5月宏观月度观察:经济仍需政策呵护-20250619
Minmetals Securities· 2025-06-19 03:16
证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 经济仍需政策呵护——5月宏观月度观 察 报告摘要 海外宏观:关税冲击下发达国家展现相对韧性。5 月份是美国"对等关税"冲 击下的第二个月份。全球经济虽然放缓,但下滑幅度不算大。发达国家和新兴 经济体出现明显分化。在关税冲击下,发达国家经济景气度展现出较强韧性, 我们认为这是由于发达国家的内需较强,抵抗外部冲击的能力更强。新兴经济 体制造业 PMI 指数则快速下滑,我们认为新兴市场对于全球贸易的依赖度更 高,所以受到美国关税政策的冲击更大。关税对海外通胀影响尚不明显。5 月 美国通胀保持平稳,欧元区通胀持续下行。发达国家的通胀数据走势表明关税 战对于通胀的影响低于最初市场的预期。但其中一个重要原因是美国对外的 "额外关税"有 90 天的豁免期。这期间有较多的贸易抢跑及提前备货,平抑 了通胀的短期波动。我们认为未来海外通胀仍存在较大的上行风险。 国内宏观:经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速增长,但持续性存疑。5 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 6.4%,是本月经济最大的亮点。我们认为 5 月消费高速 增长的主要动力有两点:一是电商"618"促销活动提前至 5 月 13 ...
特朗普关税风暴将歇?零售高管也相信“TACO”交易
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-13 04:03
即便零售行业高管也对"TACO交易"抱有乐观态度。"TACO"是"特朗普总是退缩(Trump Always Chickens Out)"的缩 写。 咨询公司AlixPartners的最新调查显示,在经历数周贸易政策变动、初步协议及复杂的法庭挑战后,部分零售商高管开 始对特朗普所谓的"对等"关税持更乐观态度。 一项于6月1日对品牌、零售商及其他消费品公司高管的调查发现,多数受访者预计总统将在7月9日"对等"关税90天暂 停期结束后,撤回对欧盟、越南、印度和墨西哥的高额关税。 来自上述地区及数十个其他国家的进口商品正面临10%的关税。但随着特朗普政府试图与各国敲定贸易协议,多数调 查受访者预计,谈判结束后10%的关税将继续生效,而非维持4月2日最初实施的更高税率。 消费品公司和零售商目前在为哪些关税情景做规划? 对许多零售商而言,越南已成为下一个制造业前沿。东南亚国家与华盛顿的谈判备受关注,也是近几个月许多高管最 大的担忧之一。 AlixPartners合伙人兼董事总经理索尼娅·拉平斯基(Sonia Lapinsky)表示,在特朗普宣布并随后暂时降低高额"对 等"关税后的几周里,许多高管担心税率最终会高于10%。 ...
第一次!贝森特称“7月9日关税大限”可延期,还点名了“欧洲”,民主党议员直言“TACO的味道”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-12 00:33
当地时间周三,在众议院筹款委员会的听证会上,美国财政部长贝森特在回应民主党议员质询时明确表 示:"对于那些善意谈判的国家——或如欧盟这样的贸易集团——我们极有可能延长期限以继续善意谈 判。但如果有人不谈判,那我们就不会延期。" 这是特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性,距离7月8日大限仅剩四周时间,目前白宫仅与 英国达成了一项初步协议。 特朗普本人周三也表示愿意延长7月8日期限,但认为这"不太必要"。他透露正与约15个国家进行贸易 谈判,包括韩国、日本和欧盟,并将在一到两周内向其他数十个国家发出概述贸易协议条款的信函。 另据报道,欧盟方面同样预期谈判将延续至7月9日期限之后。欧盟内部人士透露,最好情况下是在截止 日期前就协议原则达成一致,然后继续谈判具体细节。 "TACO"交易再次点燃? 在全球贸易战阴云笼罩两个月多后,美国终于释放出第一个实质性让步信号。 贝森特的表态标志着特朗普政府在其关税政策上的首次公开让步,也让华尔街那些押注"TACO交 易"(特朗普总是退缩)的投资者再次看到希望。 这一策略源于4月初的市场动荡:特朗普4月2日宣布的关税规模之大、范围之广超出预期,导致全球金 融市场接近恐慌。 ...
懂王的TACO困境:风箱老鼠,两头受气
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-11 23:32
Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]
港股,突发!最牛暴涨300%!
券商中国· 2025-06-09 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rising over 20% since April, indicating a technical bull market driven by technology, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [1][3]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index surpassed 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.78% [1]. - There is a notable trend of funds returning to the Hong Kong market, with the tech and AI sectors becoming the main battleground for investments [1][3]. - A significant number of warrants saw substantial gains, with 17 warrants doubling in value and some reaching a maximum increase of 300% [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market remains ample, with the offshore RMB Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (CNH Hibor) declining across all major tenors, including a drop of 15 basis points to 1.34985% for overnight Hibor, the lowest since May 28 [1][4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity measures have led to a significant reduction in Hibor rates, improving market liquidity and making dividend yields more attractive compared to market rates [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market will continue to attract investment due to policy support and the AI boom, with a favorable valuation compared to U.S. tech stocks [7]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index at around 10 times earnings presents a clear advantage over U.S. tech indices, which have significantly higher price-to-earnings ratios [7]. - The market's risk appetite may improve in the short term due to positive signals from U.S.-China relations, although long-term uncertainties remain [8].
"TACO交易"或已过热,全球资金有望持续增配中国资产
AVIC Securities· 2025-06-09 02:08
Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42%[6] - The overall market sentiment improved, with the average daily trading volume increasing to 12088.54 billion CNY, up by 1149.50 billion CNY from the previous week[6] Economic Insights - Recent data indicates that the U.S. economy may have entered a downward cycle, with the "TACO trade" becoming overly popular, leading to a potential disconnection from fundamentals in the U.S. stock market[10] - The report suggests that the long-term decline of the "dollar hegemony system" may continue, with the dollar index hitting a new low since May, reflecting a consensus in the market about this trend[10] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on both technology and dividend sectors, which may provide excess returns in a structurally shifting market[21] - It is anticipated that global funds will continue to allocate more towards Chinese assets, benefiting from the current economic stability and policy reserves in China[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, geopolitical events exceeding forecasts, and overseas liquidity easing not meeting expectations[22] Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for companies are categorized as follows: Buy (expected return > 10%), Accumulate (5% to 10%), Hold (-10% to +5%), and Sell (< -10%) relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next six months[23]
中美通话,TACO交易,马斯克走后DOGE将何去何从?
2025-06-09 01:42
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the political and economic dynamics involving **Elon Musk**, **Donald Trump**, and the implications for the **U.S. economy** and **global supply chains**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Musk's Discontent with U.S. Policies** Musk publicly criticized the **Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)**, claiming it increased government spending contrary to his goal of reducing it by $2 trillion, which led to Tesla facing backlash globally, including vandalism incidents [1][3][4] 2. **Deterioration of Trump-Musk Relationship** The relationship between Musk and Trump soured due to policy disagreements, particularly regarding tariffs and the IRA. Musk advocated for zero tariffs, while Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant reduction in their interactions [2][4] 3. **Economic Challenges in the U.S.** The U.S. is grappling with **stagflation**, high interest rates, and inflation, which are straining the middle class and increasing dissatisfaction among the populace. The reliance on deficit monetization to sustain the economy is exacerbating liquidity risks [10][11] 4. **Musk's Role in the Trump Administration** Musk was seen as a key ally in the Trump administration, achieving a reduction of $175 billion in spending and laying off 280,000 employees during his tenure as a temporary advisor [13][19] 5. **Call for Political Reform** Musk expressed a desire for a new third party to represent the middle class, criticizing both major parties for failing to address high inflation and interest rates effectively [8][9] 6. **Future of TACO Transactions** The TACO transaction's initial phase, led by Musk, aimed at exposing budget inefficiencies. Future phases may require a more systematic approach to ensure stability and effectiveness in governance [17][18] 7. **Challenges in U.S. Debt Management** The Trump administration faces rising interest rates and a high deficit rate, which complicates debt management and necessitates reforms to enhance fiscal efficiency [12][27] 8. **Impact of U.S.-China Relations** Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicate a desire to ease trade tensions, which could positively affect global supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like rare earth materials [26][31] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Musk's Critique of Government Efficiency** Musk's management style, which included demanding weekly performance reports from government officials, was seen as an attempt to improve efficiency but may not be suitable for the complexities of government operations [19] 2. **Trump's Strategic Adjustments** Trump's approach to tariffs and tax cuts is tactical, aiming to ensure the sustainability of U.S. debt while fulfilling campaign promises, indicating a balancing act between immediate political needs and long-term fiscal health [27] 3. **Potential for Future Economic Reforms** The Trump administration is expected to continue pursuing administrative efficiency reforms and leveraging technology to enhance productivity, which could be crucial for addressing the current fiscal challenges [16][22]