Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish with a sideways trend [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating provided [8] 2. Core Views - Steel: Market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are bullish with a sideways trend. Construction steel production and sales are stable, and inventory changes are minimal. Plate production has declined, and exports have significantly boosted plate consumption. A series of policies have been introduced to boost market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, prices have rebounded significantly due to macro - expectation boost. In the long term, the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The supply in July shows a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years. The demand and consumption of iron ore are resilient [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, and prices are moving sideways. For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery expectation is strong with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. For coke, after the price increase, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways as downstream daily consumption is rising with the increase in temperature. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3347 yuan/ton and 3503 yuan/ton respectively. Spot steel transactions are generally good, with speculative and futures - cash purchases being active. The national construction steel transaction volume is 12200 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Construction steel production and sales are stable, inventory changes are small, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs rise, construction steel prices increase. Plate production has declined, and exports have a significant pulling effect on plate consumption. A series of policies have boosted market sentiment [1]. - **Strategy**: Bullish with a sideways trend for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm is average, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore is 1.064 million tons, a 5.42% decrease from the previous day; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot is 1.63 million tons, a 36.97% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In July, iron ore shipments show a seasonal decline, but the supply support is stronger than in previous years due to price increases. The current molten iron production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale steel mill overhauls in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices are moving sideways. The decline of coke futures has narrowed compared to coking coal. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal has returned to a high level, and the supply recovery expectation is strong. After the coke price increase, traders' enthusiasm has increased [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is tight due to environmental inspections and heavy rain, but the supply recovery needs to be tracked with the high - level recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The demand for molten iron remains high, and short - term speculative demand has increased. For coke, after the fourth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises is further compressed, and the supply is tightened by cost factors. The downstream steel fundamentals are better than the seasonal expectation, providing demand support [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, futures - cash, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, and coal prices are fluctuating. The price - holding sentiment has cooled down. At the port, downstream rigid - demand purchases at the end of the month have been completed. As the high - temperature range expands, daily consumption is increasing, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, leading to higher market quotes. For imported coal, coastal power plants are replenishing stocks, and the quoted price has increased slightly [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: In July, as the temperature rises, downstream daily consumption is increasing, and demand is strengthening. In the short term, coal prices are moving sideways. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply remains loose [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content, so this section is skipped. Core Views of the Report - The market volume increase drives full - scale rises in various sectors. Pay attention to the new statements of the end - of - month Politburo meeting which may become the short - term market direction. Suggest buying IF stock index futures on dips [3] - In the bond market, although the economic data in Q2 shows resilience and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, the current positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term fluctuations are affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6] - The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] - For various metals, the prices are affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Most metals are expected to show a trend of volatile and weak operation in the short - term [10][11][12] - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand in August, while some products like methanol and urea face supply - demand imbalances [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [55][56][57] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: Some self - media content about the photovoltaic industry is inconsistent with the facts; from January to June, the total operating income, total profit, and tax payable of state - owned enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the asset - liability ratio increased; the Kremlin's statement about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in September and the diplomatic response; Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 outlook, causing its US stocks to fall sharply [2] - **Trading Logic**: The market volume increase leads to a full - scale rise in various sectors. Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined [4] - **News**: By the end of H1, the scale of cash - management wealth management products decreased; the US housing price increase slowed down in May [4] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 shows resilience, but the positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the US dollar index is strong, and the copper price rebounds with fluctuations. LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot premium changes [10] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the upward space of copper price is limited due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [11] Aluminum - **Market**: The domestic black series stabilizes and rebounds, and the price of Shanghai aluminum declines with fluctuations. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changes, and the LME inventory increases [12] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic and overseas sentiment is positive, the price rebound is limited due to the off - season of downstream demand and weak export demand. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [12] Zinc - **Market**: The Shanghai zinc index rises slightly. The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the inventory is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish. In the short - term, pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the structural risks in the LME market. Be cautious about price fluctuations [13] Lead - **Market**: The Shanghai lead index declines slightly. The supply of lead ingots tightens marginally, and the price of lead batteries stabilizes [15][16] - **Outlook**: If the inspection of smelters expands, the price may strengthen. Be cautious about price fluctuations affected by capital sentiment [16] Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is stable, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [17] - **Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment cools down, and the price of stainless steel falls. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [17] Tin - **Market**: The tin price is weakly volatile. The inventory of the domestic futures exchange and LME increases, and the price of tin concentrate declines [18] - **Outlook**: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery increases, but the short - term supply of smelting raw materials is still under pressure. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declines, and the futures contract price also falls [19] - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the passive reduction of the mine end. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of carbonate lithium can seize the entry opportunity according to their own situation [19][20] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rises, and the spot prices in different regions increase. The import window is closed, and the futures inventory is at a low level [21] - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [21] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of futures and society decreases [22] - **Outlook**: The steel mill's price - supporting policy is firm, but if terminal demand cannot keep up, the price may decline. Pay attention to macro - news and downstream demand [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The price of the AD2511 contract slightly declines, and the trading volume shrinks. The spot price is stable, and the inventory slightly increases [23] - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to face upward pressure [23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rise, and the spot prices change. The inventory of rebar decreases, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increases slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand [26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore futures contract rises, and the inventory of ports and steel mills increases slightly [27][28] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply pressure is not significant. The short - term price may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - situation [28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market**: The spot price in Shahe and Huazhong changes, and the inventory decreases [29] - **Outlook**: The short - term glass price is boosted by macro - policies, and it is expected to be volatile. In the long - term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side contraction [29] - **Soda Ash** - **Market**: The spot price is stable, and the inventory decreases. The price fluctuates widely [30] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rise. The spot prices also increase [31] - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations are large, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. In the long - term, the fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The price of the industrial - silicon futures contract rises. The spot prices of different grades decline [35] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The long - term fundamentals are still in a situation of over - supply and insufficient demand [36] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU decline significantly and then fluctuate slightly. The开工 rates of domestic tire enterprises change, and the inventory of natural rubber decreases [39] - **Outlook**: The price is in a state of decline and fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the band - operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [41] Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures rise. The gasoline inventory in the port of Fujairah decreases, and the diesel inventory increases [42] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals are healthy, and the oil price has upward momentum, but it is limited by seasonal demand in August. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42] Methanol - **Market**: The price of the methanol futures contract rises, and the spot price also increases [43] - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Urea - **Market**: The price of the urea futures contract rises, and the spot price declines [44] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [44] Styrene - **Market**: The spot price declines, and the futures price rises. The inventory of the port increases, and the demand from downstream industries rises [45] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side [45] PVC - **Market**: The price of the PVC futures contract rises, and the spot price declines. The inventory of the factory decreases, and the social inventory increases [47] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The price may decline after the sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The price of the EG09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory of the port decreases [48] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and the short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - **Market**: The price of the PTA09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory accumulates [49] - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to accumulate, and the processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [49] p - Xylene - **Market**: The price of the PX09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory is at a low level [50] - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The price of the PE futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise decreases, and the inventory of the trader increases [51][52] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side, and it is recommended to hold short positions [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The price of the PP futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise, trader, and port increases [53] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong in July under the influence of macro - expectations [53] Agricultural Products Pig - **Market**: The domestic pig price mainly declines, and the demand is weak. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction [55] - **Strategy**: Pay more attention to the opportunity of spread trading, and the long - term structure of the spread may change [55] Egg - **Market**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the high temperature reduces the egg - laying rate. The spot price rebounds, and the short - term near - month contract fluctuates [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the price rebounds for contracts after September [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans declines at night, and the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declines, and the trading volume is large [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to factors such as squeezing profit and supply pressure. Consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 09 contract [58] Oil - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price fluctuates, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in three major oils increase slightly. The export and production data of palm oil and other products change [59][60] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile. The palm oil price may be supported in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61] Sugar - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [62] - **Outlook**: If the external - market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline [62] Cotton - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures drops sharply, and the spot price slightly declines. The growth data of US cotton changes [63] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is bearish as the price breaks the upward trend line and the downstream consumption is weak [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass futures showed a V-shaped trend today. The market has significant differences in the future direction of glass futures. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillatory and bullish pattern. Investors need to closely monitor changes in supply - demand relationships, policy trends, and capital flows [3][4] - A-share market: After the three major A-share indices opened lower today, they declined and then closed with a small positive line. With the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] - Gold: Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold, the long - term outlook remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] - Iron ore: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15][16] - Palm oil: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures - Market performance: Glass futures showed a V - shaped trend today. The morning session declined due to market sentiment and fundamental factors, and rebounded in the afternoon [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass is at a relatively high level, and supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still sluggish, and downstream demand for glass has not improved significantly. Although there is some speculative demand, it is difficult to form effective support [3] - Outlook: If there are favorable policies for the real - estate market or measures for glass industry capacity regulation, it may change the current supply - demand expectations and push up glass futures prices. If demand remains weak and the high - inventory problem cannot be solved, the upward space of glass futures will be limited, or it may continue to decline [4] - Technical analysis: The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs. Factory inventories are gradually decreasing, but the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Recently, the trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Today, it was consolidating at a low level, and investors should operate cautiously and wait for stabilization [20][21] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower today, declined, and then closed with a small positive line [8] - News influence: The implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per person, stimulates consumption. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] 3.3 Gold - Market influence: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in gold [12] - Technical analysis: The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] 3.4 Iron Ore - Market environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16] - Technical analysis: It rebounded slightly today. Investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15] 3.5 Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [24] - Negative factors: Weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum of the market [24]

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polyolefin: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: Not rated - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, most chemical products' prices are facing various supply - demand situations, and the market trends are complex, with many products expected to move within a certain range, and some are affected by factors such as policies, seasons, and inventory [2][3][5] Industry Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, with supply expected to increase due to device restart, and limited support from supply - demand [2] - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE demand improves slowly but supply increase is obvious; PP supply is expected to rise while downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices show a small rebound, with weak fundamental drive and a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - late third quarter [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly, with high supply, accumulating inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate. PTA keeps accumulating inventory, and its mid - term processing margin has a repair drive [5] - Ethylene glycol may face a supply shift, with stable downstream demand and low - level port inventory [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices stabilize with raw materials. Short fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are firm in oscillation. Port inventory shows unexpected destocking, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures run at a low level. Domestic demand is weak, and the market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC oscillates weakly. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and short - term prices may follow cost fluctuations, with limited long - term increase [7] - Caustic soda shows a strong trend. Some low - inventory enterprises raise prices, and the price is expected to face pressure in the long term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate narrowly. There is supply pressure in the long term [8] - Glass prices continue to fall. The market may return to reality - based trading, and long - term price increase is difficult without supply contraction [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the hot-rolled coil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend despite weak demand from the real estate sector and a slight increase in social inventory [1][2] - The hot-rolled coil main contract opened at 3398.00 yuan/ton and reached a high of 3505.00 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.83% [1] - Supply and demand fundamentals show that iron ore and coke prices are weakening, leading to insufficient cost support for hot-rolled coil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption [2] - Weekly production of hot-rolled coil continues to decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.11%, while total inventory has increased by 22,500 tons [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the HC2510 contract's MACD indicator shows downward adjustments, suggesting caution in trading [2]

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].