投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。近期海外地缘因素降温，美联储降息预期回升，国债的利空风 险短线有所缓和，叠加央行在公开市场净投放流动性，国债期货下方具备较强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

Group 1 - International oil prices remain relatively stable, with WTI crude oil at approximately $65.55 per barrel and Brent crude futures around $67 per barrel [1] - Market focus has shifted from ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts to potential adjustments in US tariff policies and possible easing of sanctions on Iran [1] - A recent interview revealed that US and Chinese delegations reached a phased consensus on trade issues, injecting positive expectations into the market [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the OPEC meeting on July 6 to finalize August production quotas and the US government's decision on the "Liberation Day" tariff plan by July 9 [2] - Analysts indicate that the oil market is at a turning point due to reduced geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy adjustments, leading traders to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach [2]

东莞证券认为，周四，市场三大指数集体回调。从技术分析角度看，沪指依然位于5日均线上方，技术 形态上显示企稳向上的态势。当前，随着稳增长政策持续发力，基建投资稳步推进、消费刺激政策成效 显现，宏观经济企稳回升的趋势进一步明朗。另一方面，维护资本市场平稳运行已成为政策目标之一， 政策性资金托底意愿增强，叠加流动性合理充裕，市场出现系统性大幅调整的可能性相对较低。在海外 主要经济体降息预期升温、国内经济基本面延续稳定以及市场风险偏好有所修复的多重因素共同作用 下，A股短期或仍显韧性。7月中报披露窗口临近，基本面信号将成为市场关注焦点，预计A股市场将呈 现震荡修复格局。 渤海证券认为，A股当前估值总体适中，流动性增量预期较强，令估值端有明显的支撑。因此，下半年 A股市场将延续下有底的特征，在增量流动性的推动下，市场将有较强的结构性空间，指数也将随着外 部风险的化解和成交的活跃，而具备震荡上行的条件。 中原证券认为，周四早盘股指低开后震荡上扬，盘中沪指在3461点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡， 盘中通信设备、文化传媒、旅游酒店以及电子元件等行业表现较好；化学制药、半导体、美容护理以及 生物制品等行业表现较弱。长期资金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in steel prices across various categories, with the national absolute price index for steel at 3442 yuan/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Specific price indices for different steel products show a mixed trend: long products at 3278 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.0% year-on-year), section steel at 3384 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week, down 14.2% year-on-year), plate steel at 3518 yuan/ton (up 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year), and pipe steel at 3944 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 11% year-on-year) [1] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was an increase in prices for coking coal (up 2.78%), coke (up 2.9%), rebar (up 1.05%), and hot-rolled coil (up 1.47%), while iron ore prices remained stable [2] - On the supply side, steel companies are showing increased capacity release due to varying profitability across products, leading to a slight increase in molten iron production, although production levels for specific products vary [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal weather factors, resulting in generally poor transaction performance across various products, while cost support for steel prices remains strong due to stable scrap steel prices and steady coke prices [2]

// 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日变化不大。 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 5093 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 5093 亿元，中标量 5093 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2035 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 3058 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行加力，资金面整体变化不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，仍位于 1.37% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.3% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 6. 国债期货收盘 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约涨 0.1% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02% 5 年期主力合约持平 // 全 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for May 2025 in China shows structural differentiation, with consumption outperforming expectations while investment and exports weaken, leading to a steady slowdown in industrial production [2][11] - The automotive industry remains resilient due to improved consumer spending, despite a decline in retail sales growth [4][6] Core Insights and Arguments Industrial Production - In May 2025, the industrial added value growth rate was 5.8%, a slight decline from the previous month, influenced by a slowdown in exports [3] - Labor-intensive manufacturing saw a decrease in growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9% [3] - Traditional infrastructure and real estate-related sectors, such as black metals and non-metallic mineral products, experienced weakened production [3] Consumption Data - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding market expectations and marking a new high for the year [5] - Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment showed significant growth, reflecting the release of policy dividends [5] - The automotive retail growth rate was only 1.1%, indicating a price contraction despite a sales growth of 11.13% [6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline to 3.7%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all weakening [7] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 11.1%, significantly dragging down overall investment performance [7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed slight recovery on the supply side, but demand remained weak, with both sales area and sales revenue declining year-on-year [8] - The price index for second-hand residential properties continued to show negative growth, although the rate of decline has narrowed [8] Price Levels and Inflation Risks - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, indicating a widening gap between the two [9] - The PPI for production materials saw an expanded decline, raising concerns about deflation risks and the impact of price levels on corporate profitability [9] Other Important Insights - The financial data indicates that while social financing growth remains resilient, credit expansion has not significantly started [12] - Government fiscal data shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure growth, with a notable increase in the fiscal deficit scale, reaching a six-year high [14][15] - The government’s reliance on non-tax revenue has decreased, with non-tax revenue turning negative for the first time since 2024 [14] - The employment market showed marginal improvement, with the urban unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 5.0% [9] Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape in May 2025 reflects a complex interplay of strong consumer demand against a backdrop of weakening investment and export performance, with significant implications for future economic policy and investment strategies [17]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]

Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes confidence and capability in promoting sustained and healthy domestic economic development despite complex external challenges [2] - The NDRC has implemented proactive macro policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development, resulting in overall stable economic operation [2] Employment Support Initiatives - The NDRC has launched the "Action Plan" to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" policy, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [2][3] - A total of 16 billion yuan has been allocated for "work-for-relief" projects, expected to create job opportunities for 380,000 individuals [3] Policy Implementation and Funding - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy in July, with a total support of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods [4][5] - The first two batches of funding for equipment updates have already allocated approximately 173 billion yuan, supporting around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [4] Market Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant sales growth in related products, with sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] - The NDRC aims to enhance the effectiveness of the "two new" policies by improving project management and ensuring timely funding distribution [5]

文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...