交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月17日 | 6月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13850 | 13900 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -20 | -10 | -10 | -100.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -120 | -160 | 40 | 25.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | ...

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to decline, with prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate in East China at 58,500 to 60,100 yuan per ton and battery-grade at 59,800 to 61,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 400 yuan per ton from the previous period [1] - Since July 2020, lithium carbonate prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at 570,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, followed by a decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton by early June 2025, representing a drop of over 89% from the peak [1] - The core reason for the price volatility is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics, with continued expansion in the lithium carbonate supply chain leading to oversupply, while the bottom price remains uncertain as it approaches some companies' cash cost lines [1] Group 2 - In June, some smelting plants resumed production, but overseas shipping data indicates a potential decrease in lithium carbonate imports, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand [2] - Analysts expect short-term price fluctuations for lithium carbonate, with limited downward momentum due to the market's focus on low warehouse inventories [2] - The mid-term outlook for lithium carbonate remains challenging, with strong smelting plant output and weak terminal demand, indicating a trend towards a seasonal decline in consumption [2] Group 3 - As lithium ore prices continue to decline and approach mining costs, more production capacity may be forced to exit the market [3] - Companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to enhance competitiveness in the lithium industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditures, which may lead to a decrease in supply growth, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics as demand continues to grow [3] Group 4 - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging period for lithium carbonate smelting plants, emphasizing the need for sufficient cash flow and lithium ore resources to survive [4] - Cost reduction is identified as the most urgent requirement for companies to avoid being eliminated from the market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - **Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - **Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - **Electricity Costs**: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - **Polysilicon Production**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - **Organic Silicon Production**: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 17 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面继续反弹近 4%,上游工厂价格均有不同幅度的上调，市场情绪被连 日反弹的期货价格提涨，下游成交气氛也随之转好。本周上涨同样收到伊以冲突 的影响，国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨，基本面来看，供给端日产数 据维持在 20 万吨以上水平，目前中长期维持窄幅波动，对行情上方持续形成压 制，需求端，农需备肥好转，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启 动，预计下月将逐步展开；复合肥工厂方面，目前工厂开工负荷下降，且厂内成 品库存去化受阻，终端走货不畅，且秋季肥进度缓慢，对原料尿素端需求承接力 度疲弱。上周库存数据显示厂内库存继续增加，除需求疲弱外，出口订单企业主 动累库，待月底逐渐出口货物释放后，厂内库存压力将缓解。综合来看，尿素基 本面依然宽松，本次反弹主要系价格低位下贸易商拿货增加，且以伊冲突刺激能 化板块的走强，多属市场情绪主导而基本面尚未明显有好转，盘面反弹或难形成 持续性看涨行情，但后续农需即 ...

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Eleffa 2025 06-17 15:54 6 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中50个合约上涨,26个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 尿素2509(+3.99%)、20号胶2507(+1.55%)、乙二醇 2509(+1.55%)。这些品种受供需影响显着。 数据透视线索 26 跌幅居前的品种： 原油2507(-2.05%)、苯乙烯2507(-1.7%)、沪金 2508(-1.46%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 资金流入最多的品种： 菜油2509(7.33亿元)、十年国债2509(5.0亿 元)、豆粕2509(3.7亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2506(-35.23亿元)、沪深300 2506(-33.3亿元)、中证500 2506(-25.22亿元) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价震荡收阳，伦铜库存降至10.7万吨。美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效应，两市合计库存约 30万吨级，与年初相比减少4-5万吨左右（且仍有相当部分海运在途）。英美达成贸易协定，欧盟 与日本暂未敲定。沪铜最后交易日现铜78645元，上海升水缩至30元，广东平水，洋山铜溢价降至 39美元，国内社库小增至14.77万吨。空头择机换月至2508，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库下降0.2万吨，铝棒增0.4万吨，去库有放缓迹象。近期强现实弱 预期造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，不过需警惕指数持仓激增至60万手后出现变盘，沪铝完成 对前期缺口的回补后技术面无强烈向上驱动,关注淡季负反馈何时兑现以及月差收窄后的远月活空 机会。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金维持震荡， 保太ADC12报价维持在19600元。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元具备较 好的做缩价差机会，但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右波动空间不足,谈李阶段价差如 有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 (氧化铝) (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅回落，布伦特08合约 ...

*业期现日报 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯华东现货价 | 7920.0 | 8035.0 | -115.0 | -1.4% | | | EB2507 | 7589.0 | 7640.0 | -51.0 | -0.7% | | | EB2508 | 7482.0 | 7526.0 | -44.0 | -0.6% | 元/吨 | | EB基差 | 331.0 | 395.0 | -64.0 | -16.2% | | | EB月差 | 107.0 | 114.0 | -7.0 | -6.1% | | 本乙烯海外报价&进口利润 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯CFR中国 | 930.0 | 942.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | 美元/吨 | | 苯乙烯FOB韩国 | 920.0 | 932.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | | | 苯乙烯 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pricing strategy of N134 carbon black is influenced by market competition and supply-demand relationships, with a focus on product quality, pricing, and service in a competitive market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Competition - The carbon black market is highly competitive with numerous suppliers, primarily concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - Suppliers compete on product quality, price, and service, as the quality of carbon black is crucial for the product quality of partnering companies [2]. Group 2: Demand Influence - The demand for carbon black mainly comes from industries such as rubber, plastics, and inks, with varying demand levels globally [2]. - Domestic market development speed and demand volume determine the long-term price trends of carbon black, while international supply-demand relationships affect short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies - Suppliers adjust prices based on market demand and supply conditions, increasing prices during high demand and potentially lowering them to capture market share during low demand [3]. - Different pricing strategies are developed based on product quality and added value, with high-quality products commanding higher prices [3]. - Raw material and transportation costs significantly impact carbon black pricing, with fluctuations in the prices of natural rubber and petroleum directly affecting carbon black prices [3]. Group 4: Complexity of Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy for N134 carbon black is complex and dynamic, requiring suppliers to closely monitor market changes and adjust prices accordingly [3]. - Suppliers must also consider raw material and transportation costs to ensure price rationality and maximize profits [3].