投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月03日08时25分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 目前政策面利多基本兑现，中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，新开 工面积仍大幅回落，竣工面积、施工面积同比也依然维持较大的跌幅 。上周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落， 总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将 进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产，但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体 来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突 破，后市有望延续下行趋势，短线的反弹不影响趋势的延续。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

研究报告 豆粕月报 市场转暖，豆粕期价探底回升 华龙期货投资咨询部 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 03 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 一、市场回顾： 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 5 月豆粕期价探底回升，5 月豆粕加权上涨 1.38%，以 2946 报收；菜粕加权上涨 3.34%，以 2571 报收。 国际市场上，美豆连续下跌 0.17%，以 1042.250 报收，美豆 粉下跌 0.44%，以 296.10 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA 报告显示，2025/26 年度全球大豆产量估计为 4.27 亿吨，同比增加 595 万吨，主要贡献来自于巴西大豆产量的 增加；进口量 1.86 亿吨，同比增加 866 万吨；压榨量 3.66 亿吨，同比增加 1230 万吨；出口量 1.88 亿吨，同比增加 756 万吨，同样巴西出口的增加为全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 is characterized by a paradox of sufficient supply but potential localized shortages due to the form and location of the copper available [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Global mine copper production is expected to increase by approximately 2.3% in 2025, exceeding 23.5 million tons, driven by projects like Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia [1]. - Refined copper production is projected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, particularly in China [1]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year's surplus, indicating a third consecutive year of supply exceeding demand [1]. Refining Challenges - There is a bottleneck in the supply of copper concentrate, which is necessary for refining, leading to negative treatment charges for smelters [2]. - The shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine has exacerbated the concentrate supply tightness, potentially causing refined copper production to decline by 1.5% by 2026 unless scrap recovery increases [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the apparent surplus, traders remain bullish due to historical underinvestment in large mines and the reallocation of global copper inventories due to trade policies [3]. - The U.S. warehouse inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018, while futures exchange inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating a complex supply situation [3]. Price Outlook - Experts anticipate that copper prices will continue to fluctuate rather than follow a single trend, with an average price expected to be around $9,500 per ton this year [4]. - Prices are projected to hover between $4.40 and $4.50 per pound in the latter half of the year, which is manageable for many manufacturers [4]. Potential Upside - Some analysts believe there is potential for copper prices to rise, particularly if global economic recovery, especially outside of China, gains momentum, potentially pushing prices above $10,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - Resolution or easing of U.S.-China trade disputes could act as a bullish catalyst, releasing pent-up demand and narrowing price gaps [6].

在东盟峰会的热闹氛围中，菲律宾总统小马科斯成功地抓住了一个毫不起眼但极其重要的契机，他在午餐时找到中方领导人进行了一次简短却意味深长的 攀谈。这一场景仿佛是国际外交舞台上的一次即兴演出，各种势力和利益在暗中对峙。小马科斯不失时机地发问："中国对美国单边关税有什么看法？"他 选择直接进入核心问题，与其说他在探寻答案，不如说他是在测探风向。 这一问一答间，透露出菲律宾在中美贸易战中的特殊处境：既想借机了解中国是如何在贸易战中立于不败之地，又想为自己国家谋求更多的经济安全感。 中方回答，特朗普"有自己的想法"，而中国则不希望看到"对等关税"继续下去，因为这对任何一方都没有好处。这个回答，在表面上简单直接，却蕴藏着 复杂的战略思考。 对于菲律宾来说，关键或许在于如何调整其对外政策，使之既符合国家的战略利益，又能在全球复杂格局中找到自己的位置。这意味着，小马科斯政府不 能仅仅依赖传统的外交思路，而必须在思想上有突破，从具体的经贸合作入手，稳定与周边国家的关系，并寻找新的国际话语权。 然而，菲律宾在这场全球博弈中的角色就显得微妙且尴尬。作为曾经坚定的美菲同盟，现在的小马科斯政府发现自己处于一种进退维谷的状态。虽然美国 是 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 股指期货早报- 2025年6月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 早评 期指 1、基本面：中美贸易不确定性，端午假期港股小幅回调，海外市场震荡，黄金和原油上涨，国内指 数预计迎来小幅低开；中性 IC2506贴水43.27点，IM2506贴水60.56点，偏空 4、盘面：IH>IF>IC> IM（主力），IF、IH在20日均线上方，偏多 IM、IC在20日均线下方，偏空 期货市场-中证500基差与价差 2、资金：融资余额17975亿元，减少12亿元；中性 3、基差：IH2506贴水11.5点，IF2506贴水17.83点，中性 5、主力持仓： IH主力多减，IF 主力多增，IC 主力多减，偏多 6、预期：中美贸易不确定性，端午假期港股小幅回调，国内指数调整，目前位置大幅上涨反而是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 超长债周报 贸易战形势扑簌迷离，超长债成交量保持高位 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周贸易战形势扑簌迷离，债市跟随波动。另外资金面维 持宽松态势，隔夜利率再次回落至 1.4%，超长债小幅承压，全周 V 型走 势。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投相当活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 5 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 23BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，4 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 4 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，较 3 月回落 0.8%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，4 月 CPI 为-0.1%，PPI-2.7%，通缩风 险依然明显。近期中美贸易摩擦出现阶段性缓和，投资者悲观预期有所 消散，短期焦点将回到国内二季度经济数据，我们预计随着政策托底效 应的减弱，债市收益率下行概率更大。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依 然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 5 月 30 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 2B ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a temporary easing in the US-China trade war due to a 90-day agreement that reduces tariffs, leading to a rebound in export demand and stable industrial production, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in Q2 [1][7][10] - In May, the PMI export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, and the container freight index for exports to the US West and East coasts increased by 10.84% and 6.45% respectively, indicating a recovery in export activity [7][10] - Despite stable production, the report notes a disconnect between production stability and effective financing demand, with new RMB loans in the first four months of 2025 at 9.78 trillion, slightly above last year's 9.44 trillion but below 2023's 11.1 trillion [2][11][14] Group 2 - The report identifies several factors contributing to the weak recovery in financing demand, including high uncertainty regarding the temporary agreement and fluctuating US trade policies, which limit risk appetite among businesses [14][15] - The real estate sector shows limited willingness to expand financing demand, with new long-term loans for residents at 760.1 billion, lower than previous years, and ongoing credit risks for property companies affecting bank lending to SMEs [15][16] - The report discusses a divergence between production and pricing, with April's PPI dropping to -2.7% and companies lowering prices to maintain market share, which in turn affects capital return rates and further constrains financing expansion [16][17] Group 3 - The financial product return rates are declining due to lower entity return rates, leading to a shift in market focus towards stable returns, particularly in dividend stocks and small-cap investments, creating a "barbell" investment strategy [20][21] - The report suggests that this investment strategy will continue until excess capital accumulation leads to volatility that disrupts the current crowded positioning in the market [20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税再次发生变化，俄罗斯军事遭受重创，地缘关税变得更加复杂，短期不确 | | | 强势补涨 | 定性仍然较多。央行或继续购金。长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑 | | | | 途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 黄金大涨或带动白银走高，目前全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不 大，各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银跟随黄金波动，价格没有摆 | | | | 脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8450】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 端午假期，特朗普威胁把进口钢铁关税提高至 50%,中美贸易摩擦恐再生变故，俄 乌战争烈度或增加，地缘风险飙升，伦铜震荡回升，COMEX 铜涨超 3%，沪铜或高 | | | | 开高走，建议逢低轻仓试多，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77500，79000】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 端午假期，伦锌小幅反弹，国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求 淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌上方空间或有限，长期看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI index, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials segment, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the cement market price is currently at 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down by 6.3 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [20][21] 2. Cement Market - The average cement inventory ratio is reported at 65.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week, but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 47.8%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous week but down by 5.3 percentage points compared to last year [25] - The report notes that the cement price is expected to stabilize or slightly rebound in the coming months due to supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [12][19] 3. Glass Fiber Market - The report indicates that the profitability of the glass fiber sector remains low, with many second and third-tier companies operating at breakeven or loss [13] - The demand for high-end products in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to continue growing, which may support profitability for leading companies [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others such as Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Fiberglass [13] 4. Glass Market - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report recommends Qibin Group as a leading player in the glass market, with a focus on its cost advantages and growth potential in photovoltaic glass [14] 5. Home Decoration Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to enhance the demand for home decoration materials [16] - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [16]

弘则策略 宏观迷雾逐步消散 20250530 摘要 中美贸易关系复杂，虽有摩擦，但相互依存。中国通过加强与东盟、欧 盟等非美地区的贸易合作，维持出口韧性，转口贸易策略显著。 对等关税增加美国进口成本，中国出口面临压力，但通过多元化贸易伙 伴缓解。欧盟和日本采取拖延战术，贸易协议达成时间可能推迟。 短期内，中国出口表现优于预期，但下半年可能回落。若联邦法院撤销 部分关税，将缓解紧张关系，延长影响周期。 美国 2025 年实际 GDP 增速预期下调，受关税影响显著。中国二季度出 口预计增长 7%，全年 GDP 预测约为 4.75%，下半年贸易和投资数据 下滑。 中国房地产投资低于预期，政策方面，下半年财政加码可能性大，或通 过特别国债和新增专项债项目支持经济，但总体思路是托而不举。 美元贬值趋势明确，但各国宽松货币政策形成牵制。美联储偏鹰派及通 胀预期走高导致货币政策偏紧，广场协议 2.0 可能性不大。 人民币存在升值预期，年底有望接近 7。日本经济面临成本推动型通胀， 央行维持超宽松货币政策，对日债需保持谨慎。 Q&A 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化是什么？ 近期宏观经济环境中的主要变化包括中美贸易谈判的不确定性 ...