1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector may continue to rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances. Many chemical products are at a difficult stage, with compressed valuations and heavy profit pressures on chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and supply pressures, showing an overall trend of weakening oscillations. Each sub - sector has different performances and trends, mainly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Energy and chemical products may continue to be affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short - term and continue to rebound. Many chemical products are approaching their darkest moments, with compressed valuations. The days of chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter will still be difficult [1][2] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical concerns resurface, and supply pressure persists. - **Main Logic**: The EU plans to impose tariffs on Russian oil, and Ukrainian drones attack Russian energy facilities. EIA data shows a slight decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories last week. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil faces the dual pressures of refinery start - up peaking and falling and OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Geopolitical factors dominate the fluctuation of geopolitical premiums. - **Outlook**: Consider oil prices to be in a weakening oscillation, and pay attention to short - term geopolitical disturbances [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly declining. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing oil prices to rise sharply while asphalt futures prices increase slightly, compressing profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly falling, and the planned asphalt production in October increases by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a sharp increase in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing fuel oil futures prices to rise sharply. Geopolitical disturbances may cause the expected Russian fuel oil exports to decline significantly. With the increase in refinery start - up, the demand for fuel oil processing is gradually increasing, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the demand for residue processing is sluggish. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will only cause short - term price disturbances. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the resistance level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Fundamentally, the reduction of domestic refined oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates increase the supply pressure of domestic refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has decreased, and methanol futures prices fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, methanol futures prices fluctuated. The shipping price in northern Ordos, Inner Mongolia increased slightly, mainly supported by the start - up of olefin plants, transportation restrictions, and pre - holiday stockpiling. The port inventory decreased, but there is still a large pressure on the near - month port inventory, and there is a contradiction between the near and far months. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, there may still be opportunities to go long at low levels from September to October. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change. After the futures prices have been under long - term pressure along the cost line, they rebound briefly. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the daily production and start - up rate of the supply side remained at a high level, and there was insufficient support on the demand side, but the export expectation improved due to policy and macro news, causing the futures prices to rebound briefly. - **Outlook**: The fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose. If the policies such as export windows and batches and changes in Indian tenders are true, they may bring considerable benefits, but currently be vigilant about unimplemented information. Urea is expected to oscillate and sort out, waiting for other positive factors [24] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The shipment performance is average, and it fluctuates with cost and sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Before the festival, the overall shipment performance was average, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol was rising from a low level. The increase in oil prices during the day slightly repaired the commodity sentiment, and ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, there are limited variables, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the National Day. The supply - demand situation is in a marginally weakening pattern, and the price mostly fluctuates with cost and sentiment, with a limited rebound height at a low level. - **Outlook**: The short - term price stops falling slightly, but the rebound height is limited. Operate within a range [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: Cost supports the price, but the supply - demand side is relatively under pressure, and profits are compressed. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of crude oil prices drives the increase of naphtha prices, strengthening cost support. Driven by sentiment, the sales of polyester products increase, further supporting the increase of PTA prices. There are frequent rumors of device disturbances in the market, increasing sentiment - side disturbances. Before specific device changes, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a weakly oscillating pattern, and PX profits are still under pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: The marginal weakening of supply - demand and cost support compete, and it oscillates in the short term [12] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The futures prices rebound following the cost side. Some polyester filament manufacturers have different mentalities, and some offer promotions, leading to an increase in the sales of polyester filaments. However, the spot basis still runs weakly, and the number of warehouse receipts increases sharply. It is expected that the basis will still be under pressure in the short term. Although there is a certain reduction in supply, the strong willingness of mainstream manufacturers to ship goods limits the overall repair of processing fees. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate under the game between its own supply - demand and cost. - **Outlook**: Oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to the TA01 - 05 reverse arbitrage [13][14] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The sentiment of the upstream to stop falling has improved slightly, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials stop falling and rebound, and short - fiber prices follow the increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly, and the downstream stockpiling behavior has improved slightly with the improvement of upstream sentiment. However, the sustainability of the overall situation is still worthy of attention. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw materials, and it oscillates in the short - term at the bottom [20][21] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: Typhoons in South China affect the operation of plants. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rise slightly, and polyester bottle - chip factories follow the increase. The cost has a certain supporting effect. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the upstream in the short term. - **Outlook**: Oscillate, and the absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials [21][22] 3.2.12 PP - **View**: The chemical sentiment turns slightly warmer, and PP should pay attention to the support strength of the previous low. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PP main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices oscillate, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of PP futures prices. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price, there is still some willingness of downstream manufacturers to replenish stocks. However, the PP supply side is still under pressure, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches still exists. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [27][28] 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **View**: Fluctuate following PP, and PL oscillates and falls in the short term. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PL main contract oscillated and fell. The mentality in the market was slightly boosted, and the willingness to continue to offer discounts was not strong, but the market still had a bearish expectation for the future, so the operation was cautious. The price fluctuated, and the downstream maintained rigid demand for replenishment, with general overall trading. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally compared with before. - **Outlook**: PL oscillates weakly in the short term [28] 3.2.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and downstream manufacturers still have stockpiling demand before the festival, so plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the plastic main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices rebound, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of plastic futures prices. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October", although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price and the fact that downstream manufacturers still have some willingness to replenish stocks before the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the demand may still have a certain support. However, the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, the daily production is still at a high level, and the inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level, and the supply side still has a certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited support, and it oscillates in the short term [26] 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil and anti - involution reappear, and pure benzene rebounds. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased. Near the double festivals, downstream industries had a certain demand for replenishment. The news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of pure benzene and styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. According to the current maintenance and production - start plans of pure benzene, it will be difficult to reduce the inventory before the end of the year, and the import pressure in October is relatively large, with the most obvious inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the supply of pure benzene will exceed the demand again, and the inventory will accumulate [14][15] 3.2.16 Styrene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil, anti - involution, and plants reappear, and styrene rebounds after a decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is that the high inventory of upstream and downstream industries is difficult to reduce. Although styrene is in a de - stocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory - accumulation cycle from November to December, with insufficient positive support. In addition, the increase of pure benzene imports in the far - month also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level. You can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [17] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: The market sentiment warms up, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increases in mid - September, reducing PVC production; the downstream start - up rate improves month - on - month, and the low - price procurement volume increases; the PVC order - signing situation improves this week; the impact of power rationing on the start - up of calcium carbide plants is short - term, and the pre - festival stockpiling of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, so the increase of calcium carbide prices may slow down; supported by the stockpiling of alumina, the caustic soda spot price stabilizes, and the static cost of PVC increases to 5280 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost may remain stable. - **Outlook**: PVC oscillates. The pressure comes from the long - term weakening of fundamentals, and the support comes from the increase of dynamic cost and the warming of market sentiment [30] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the caustic soda fundamentals still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The pressure is manifested in the high receiving volume of caustic soda by Weiqiao and the reduction of the receiving price; the non - aluminum start - up rate remains stable, and the pre - festival stockpiling enthusiasm is average; the maintenance in October decreases, and the caustic soda production will increase. The support comes from the strong expectation of stockpiling caustic soda for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026, and the stable rebound of the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the long - term. The spot price stabilizes weakly before the festival, and the futures market may still rebound due to the strong expectation of stockpiling for alumina production in Q4 [31] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Provides the latest values and changes of cross - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Lists the basis, changes, and warehouse receipt numbers of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and changes of cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [34] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the provided content, only lists the names of varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [35][48][60] 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities increased by 0.56% on September 24, 2025. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.54%, the industrial products index increased by 0.72%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.35%. - **Sector Index**: The energy index increased by 1.93% on September 24, 2025, decreased by 1.22% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.37% in the past month, and decreased by 2.06% since the beginning of the year [277][278]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is fluctuating, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has changed and the steel price continues to fluctuate. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and definitions of different trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output has continued to decline, but the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Thanks to pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the peak season is lackluster. Overall, due to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing support for the steel price, but the weak downstream performance and demand concerns remain, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a fluctuating trend before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate market is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having certain support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, after the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 74,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 396,645 lots, and the open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots from the previous trading day. The current basis was 430 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,909 lots, a decrease of 575 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 74,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 833 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and seeing, with the overall market trading activity remaining stable. As it was the peak demand season, downstream material factories had certain inventory - building needs before the National Day and were more willing to purchase at relatively low prices [1]. - In August, China imported 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. Among them, 15,600 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 71% of the total imports, and 4,000 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 19%. From January to August, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate were 153,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5% [1]. - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 619,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%, equivalent to 56,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). From Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe, the combined import volume accounted for 70.2%, with some showing significant decreases: Australia's imports were 212,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5%; Nigeria's imports were 105,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6%; Zimbabwe's imports were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84%. Imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly, with 73,000 tons and 18,000 tons respectively, due to concentrated shipments [2]. Strategy - Futures market: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline. For unilateral trading, short - term range operations can be carried out, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Industry Capacity Adjustment - China's domestic polysilicon effective capacity is projected to decrease to approximately 240 million tons per year, a 164% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The polysilicon supply and demand pattern is expected to improve substantially with the strict implementation of new energy consumption standards [1] Regulatory Environment - The draft standard released this week is currently open for public comment and is expected to be implemented within 12 months [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On September 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 71,260 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 2.31% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 482,790 lots, and the open interest was 309,446 lots, compared to 309,402 lots the previous day. The current basis is 50 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,963 lots, a change of 338 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 71,300 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,600 - 7,0800 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 810 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and market transactions have weakened. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day stockpiling needs, their purchasing willingness is strong when prices are relatively low [1]. - In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand increase, but demand grows faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected this month [1]. - The weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, indicating good downstream restocking willingness [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 623 products of large - scale industries, 319 had year - on - year production growth. For example, steel production was 122.77 million tons, a 9.7% increase; cement was 148.02 million tons, a 6.2% decrease; ten non - ferrous metals were 6.98 million tons, a 3.8% increase; ethylene was 3.14 million tons, a 10.4% increase; automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a 10.5% increase, among which new - energy vehicles were 1.333 million vehicles, a 22.7% increase; power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, a 1.6% increase; and crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% increase [2]. 2. Core View - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday, mainly affected by leading companies' upward revision of battery cell shipment expectations. With support from the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the market has some support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of mining production and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies. - Inter - delivery spread: None. - Cross - product: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices; if supply is restricted, rubber prices are expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan or 13.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.33%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market was 52.20 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht or - 0.67%, and the FOB mid - price of glue was 56.20 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20 Thai baht or 0.36% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 1010 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 6.91%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1030 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan or - 8.44% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's output was 414.90 (unit not clear), down 6.70 or 1.61% from the previous month; Indonesia's output was 176.20 (ten tons), down 21.30 or 12.09%; India's output was 45.00, down 1.00 or - 2.17%; China's output was 101.30, down 1.30. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, down 8.385 million units or - 8.16%; tire export volume was 66.65 million units, up 6.34 million units or 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July was 47.48 (unit not clear), up 1.15 or 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 602,295 (unit not clear), down 3908 or - 0.64%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 45,964, down 605 or - 1.30%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 5.03%, up 0.95 percentage points; the outbound rate was 5.98%, up 1.79 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the futures market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, in September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factory resumptions to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the polysilicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month. There may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream users, and the spot transmission mechanism is relatively smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, with high price volatility risk. It is recommended to pay attention to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises next week [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the average price of N - type re - feedstock was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 48,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) was - 2060 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.63% [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 53,610, down 100 or - 0.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 53,845, down 25,580 or - 3203.46%; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 235, up 105 or 80.77% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, up 0.10 GW or 0.73%; polysilicon production was 3.12 million tons, up 0.10 million tons or 3.31% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%; polysilicon import volume was 0.11 (unit not clear), up 0.03 or 40.30%; polysilicon export volume was 0.22 (unit not clear), up 0.01 or 5.96%; the net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or - 14.92%. Silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 3.29 GW or 6.24%; silicon wafer import volume was 0.06 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or - 15.41%; silicon wafer export volume was 0.61 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 11.37%; the net export volume of silicon wafers was 0.55 million tons, up 0.07 million tons or 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers was 58.62 GW, up 0.08 GW or 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory was 21.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons or 3.79%; silicon wafer inventory was 16.55 GW, down 0.30 GW or - 1.78%. The polysilicon contract volume was 7820 (unit not clear), up 130 or 1.69% [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising. In September, the prices of Xinjiang caking coal and charcoal have increased significantly, with monthly increases of 400 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The electricity price in the southwest region will gradually rise during the dry season, and the cost center of industrial silicon will move up in the future. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. The cost side of industrial silicon provides strong support. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the expected increase in downstream inventory replenishment demand before the National Day, industrial silicon prices may rise slightly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices. However, it should be noted that with the increase in production, inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 12, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 1.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (based on SI4210) was - 45 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 12.50%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (in Xinjiang) was 655 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.76% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 8725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 33.33%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was - 365 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.39% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 38.57 million tons, up 4.74 million tons or 14.01%; Xinjiang's industrial silicon production was 16.97 million tons, up 1.94 million tons or 12.91%; Yunnan's production was 5.81 million tons, up 1.70 million tons or 41.19%; Sichuan's production was 5.37 million tons, up 0.52 million tons or 10.72%. The national operating rate was 55.87%, up 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, up 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%; Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, up 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%; Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, up 7.33 percentage points or 19.83%. The production of silicone DMC was 22.31 million tons, up 2.33 million tons or 11.66%; polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.50 million tons, down 1.00 million tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 7.40 million tons, up 0.57 million tons or 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 12.17 million tons, up 0.23 million tons or 1.93%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.94 million tons, up 0.08 million tons or 2.62%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.28 million tons, unchanged. Social inventory (weekly) was 53.90 million tons, up 0.20 million tons or 0.37%; contract inventory (daily) was 25.00 million tons, down 0.05 million tons or - 0.19%; non - warehouse receipt inventory (daily) was 28.90 million tons, up 0.25 million tons or 0.86% [3]. Group 4: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current log market presents an oscillating pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction in the market lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable under cost support. Future attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. Currently, new registered warehouse receipts have been added to the 09 contract, and buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, increasing pressure on the spot market. The spot market is weakening, and traders' enthusiasm for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the total inventory is low, with continuous inventory reduction for several weeks to below 3 million tons. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, showing no obvious improvement trend. Currently, the valuation of the futures market below 800 is at a discount. Considering the peak - season expectations, it is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 12, the price of log 2509 was 763.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan or - 0.46%; the price of log 2511 was 798.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan or - 0.81%; the price of log 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, down 35.0 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread was - 38.0 yuan/cubic meter; the 9 - 1 spread was 3.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract was - 13.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract was - 54.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract was - 62.5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine was 850 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On September 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.116, unchanged. The import theoretical cost was 797.71 yuan/cubic meter, down 13.81 yuan or - 2% [4]. - **Supply**: As of August 31, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters or - 3.87% from July 31. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 44.0, down 3.0 or - 6.38% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, China's log inventory was 294.00 million cubic meters, down 3.0 million cubic meters or - 1.01%; Shandong's inventory was 181.30 million cubic meters, down 5.4 million cubic meters or - 2.89%; Jiangsu's inventory was 91.54 million cubic meters, up 0.6 million cubic meters or 0.67% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 5, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 61,200 cubic meters, down 800 cubic meters or - 1% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Soda Ash The futures market has been oscillating narrowly recently, lacking a main trading logic. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production units have resumed, and the weekly production has returned to the high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, supply is at a high level. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production reduction, inventory will face further pressure. Track the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. Glass The spot market had good transactions last week, and inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time of the production lines is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for复产 and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the inventory in the middle reaches has not decreased significantly. In terms of industry supply - demand