Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rebound in risk appetite, with prices showing an upward trend due to a decrease in port inventories and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 28, iron ore futures prices increased by 2.06%, reaching 793.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The total iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports is reported at 150.07 million tons, a decrease of 582,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total inventory at 45 ports stands at 143.11 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 577,300 tons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Satellite data indicates that from October 20 to October 26, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 147,000 tons, continuing the destocking trend [2]. - During the same period, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.884 million tons, an increase of 548,000 tons [2]. - Iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 20.843 million tons, down by 5.92 million tons week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Chao Dong Tian Cheng Futures suggest that while supply is increasing and demand remains weak, the recent drop in port inventories and improved macroeconomic conditions may lead to a short-term price increase [3]. - Hualian Futures reports that despite expectations of increased supply, the overall demand for iron ore is declining, and port inventories are likely to continue accumulating [3]. - Zhengxin Futures notes that the supply-demand structure is improving, with attention on the progress of the West Mangdu project, which may lead to increased supply [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - **Negative Information**: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Costs**: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - **Processing Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - **Import Situation**: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - **Social Inventory**: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Qi Yurong - Qualification Number: F03100031 - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021060 - Contact: 010 - 8229 5006 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Macro sentiment has improved, and overseas inventories have continued to decline. The backwardation structure of LME zinc has deepened, driving SHFE zinc to oscillate upward. However, domestic demand remains weak, and although social inventory accumulation has temporarily stopped, it is still at a relatively high level. There is still pressure on the upside of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.56% to 22,120 yuan/ton; SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.62% to 3,019.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and various spreads in different regions and contract months are presented, but no specific summary data is given [14][16] 2. Winter Stockpiling + High Refinery Operation, TC Decline 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 391,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons [25] - **Profit**: As of October 23, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,224 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4,008,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [32] - **TC**: The CZSPT group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic TC has been declining, with the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropping from 3,650 yuan/metal ton in late September to 3,250 yuan/metal ton on October 24 [33][36] 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: Zinc prices have rebounded, but TC has declined, and the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to fall. As of October 23, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 694 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [44] - **Import**: The import profit window is closed. As of October 24, the import profit of refined zinc was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [47] 3. Demand Falling Short of Expectations, Slight Decline in Galvanizing Operation - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 57.48%. Black prices were lackluster, and terminal procurement was less than expected. Galvanizing enterprises reduced their operation to prevent excessive inventory, and some enterprises may further cut production [54] - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and cautious procurement by downstream users. Finished product inventory increased due to poor demand [57] 4. Poor Demand, Accumulation of Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Finished Products - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 1.51% to 22,815 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 1.48% to 23,365 yuan/ton [63] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 53.13%. Terminal demand weakened, leading to a decline in alloy operation. Some enterprises arranged holidays to consume finished product inventory, and the sector's operation may further decline [66] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased as there were long - term order arrivals during the week despite high zinc prices and cautious procurement. Finished product inventory increased due to poor terminal demand and slow shipment [69] 5. Production and Sales in Balance, Slight Fluctuation in Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 1.43% to 21,300 yuan/ton [77] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 56.36%. Some enterprises were affected by recent meetings, and the operating rate declined. It is expected to return to normal this week, and the operation rate may rise with the resumption of some enterprises that had holidays during the National Day [80] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and relatively high prices of some raw materials. Finished product inventory increased slightly as enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales [83] 6. High Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of October 23, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,000 tons, with slight fluctuations. The inventory in Shanghai decreased due to fast downstream pick - up, while the inventory in Tianjin increased significantly due to more weekend arrivals, and the inventory in Guangdong reached a nearly three - year high. As of October 24, SHFE inventory was 109,200 tons, showing a decline. As of October 23, LME inventory was 37,600 tons, continuing to decline [92][95] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the situation of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025 [101]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of methanol is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is weakly volatile, with a reference view of strong operation[5]. - Due to geopolitical factors such as Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers, along with South American geopolitical risks, crude oil futures prices have gained premium support. There is a game between strong geopolitical expectations and weak supply - demand realities in the crude oil market. With positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and stable trend on Monday[5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation in the night session on Friday, with the futures price slightly rebounding by 0.04% to 2279 yuan/ton[5]. Market Driving Factors - Geopolitical factors, including Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil producers, and South American geopolitical risks, have led to a premium in crude oil prices. However, the crude oil market still faces a weak supply - demand reality, with increased supply surplus pressure and a seasonal off - peak in demand, leading to an inventory accumulation cycle[5]. - Positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks have improved the macro - sentiment[5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: The polyolefin market rebounds driven by crude oil and coking coal, with its trend mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and cost fluctuations. Given many macro - level disturbances and limited supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading recently [7]. - **Long - term**: Despite continuous pressure on the PP supply side due to intensive production, new PP device production is relatively limited in Q1 2026, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. With an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up trend in the long run [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Cost side**: Crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical issues such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend because of supply - side factors like production cuts in some regions and reduced Mongolian coal customs clearance [1]. - **Supply - demand side**: In supply, unexpected PP device shutdowns increase recently, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but the large - scale PP production capacity makes it hard to fundamentally relieve the pressure. In demand, traditional PP downstream shows little change, but downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after continuous price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Near - term strategy review**: A unilateral strategy of buying at low prices was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range of polypropylene is 6500 - 7000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.43% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7% [13]. - **Hedging strategy**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short PP futures and sell call options. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy PP futures [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Crude oil rises rapidly due to geopolitical issues; PP production lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Zhongjing Petrochemical stop [19]. - **Negative information**: The 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical will start next week; Daxie Petrochemical's old production lines will stop [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session and the results of Sino - US trade policy negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: Since Wednesday, the PP disk rebounds driven by crude oil. This week, the position volume slightly declines, the top five short positions increase significantly, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats slightly increases [22]. - **Basis structure**: The PP disk rises rapidly following crude oil, while the spot price lags, causing the basis to weaken. As of Friday, the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton, the East China basis is - 62 yuan/ton, and the South China basis is - 72 yuan/ton [25]. - **Spread structure**: The spread structure changes little, and the PP 1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to an optimistic macro - expectation [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - PDH devices maintain positive profits, with expected reduced unexpected shutdowns and increased operating rates. The profit of externally purchased propylene recovers, and the situation of suspending PP device sales of propylene is expected to decrease, increasing supply - side pressure and weakening cost support [32]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The follow - up supply - demand pressure is not significant. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in Q4 on the supply side, a high demand growth rate on the demand side (current apparent demand year - on - year growth rate is 11%), and limited PP import volume increase on the import - export side [41]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 75.94% (- 2.28%). Many devices stop unexpectedly this week, resulting in a short - term supply reduction [47]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Side and Deduction - **Import**: Due to weak overseas prices, some low - cost PP sources may enter China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season limit PP exports, but some enterprises increase sales by reducing prices, leading to a surge in export orders this week [52]. 3.5.4 Demand Side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.376% (+ 0.52%). Although traditional PP downstream changes little, downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost - supported, with a unilateral trend of being oscillatory and slightly strong. PXN is expected to fall, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between 240 - 250 US dollars [10]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. The new PTA device of Xin Fengming is planned to start this week [10]. - **MEG**: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [11]. - **Rubber**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. - **Asphalt**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. - **LLDPE**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. - **PP**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [38]. - **Pulp**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [41][44]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. - **Methanol**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. - **Urea**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. - **Styrene**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. - **LPG**: Significantly supported by cost, but with macro - risks [62]. - **Propylene**: Supported by cost, with a short - term rebound from a low level [63]. - **PVC**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Relatively resistant to decline [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: On October 23, the price of PX in Asia increased, following the rise of crude oil. The load of PTA devices changed, and the overall start - up load of MEG in the Chinese mainland decreased. The polyester load remained stable, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased [5][8][9]. - **Trend and Suggestion**: PX is oscillatory and slightly strong, and factories are advised to hedge PXN spreads. PTA demand is expected to improve, and MEG short positions should be reduced [10][11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The prices of glue and cup - glue in Thailand increased, and the raw material prices in Yunnan increased slightly. The supply in Hainan decreased due to typhoons, and the raw material supply in Vietnam was limited [13][14][15]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene increased [16][17]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The asphalt futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate increased slightly. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and the factory and social inventories decreased [19][29]. - **Trend**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The LLDPE futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PE market price decreased overall, with a slight increase in some varieties over the weekend [30]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. PP - **Market Data**: The PP futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PP market price rebounded after a decline, with a downward - moving price center [33][34]. - **Trend**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The price of caustic soda futures and the spot price in Shandong remained stable. The supply pressure of caustic soda is not large, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [37][38]. - **Trend**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [38]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The pulp futures trading volume decreased, and the positions decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp varieties changed, and the port inventory decreased but remained at a high level. The downstream demand was weak [42][43][44]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [41]. Glass - **Market Data**: The glass futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with a slight improvement in overall sales [46]. - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, with different trends in different regions [49][51]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. Urea - **Market Data**: The urea futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the spot trading improved [53][54][55]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. Styrene - **Market Data**: The styrene futures prices changed, and the profit margins of different production methods decreased. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene turned into de - stocking expectations [56][57]. - **Trend**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The soda ash futures price increased, and the positions increased. The domestic soda ash market was stable, with an increase in supply and weak demand [59]. - **Trend**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The LPG and propylene futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The CP prices of propane and butane increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [63][67][68]. - **Trend**: LPG is supported by cost but has macro - risks; propylene is supported by cost with a short - term rebound [62][63]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC futures price and the spot price remained stable. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is affected by trade wars, with weak demand and high inventory [70]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The fuel oil futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume and positions changed. The spot prices of fuel oil in different regions increased [73]. - **Trend**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices changed, and the trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [75]. - **Trend**: Relatively resistant to decline [75].

| 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 尿素：宏观支撑，短期反弹 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,638 | 1,621 | 1 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,630 | 1,617 | 1 3 | | | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 147,829 | 121,985 | 25844 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 298,840 | 312,046 | -13206 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,484 | 5,556 | -72 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 481,912 | 394,584 | 87328 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -88 | -81 | - 7 ...