1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Overall, the market is generally favorable. For short - term long positions, it is advisable to tilt towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [1]. - Bullish on gold, silver, and alumina [1]. - Bearish on black metals, iron ore, and soda ash [1]. - Neutral or with a fluctuating outlook for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. [1]. Core Viewpoints - The current market has abundant liquidity, strongly supporting stock indices. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement [1]. - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors impact various commodity prices. For example, they boost gold prices and influence the supply - demand and price trends of metals and energy commodities [1]. - Seasonal factors, production capacity changes, and inventory levels are important factors affecting the prices of various commodities, such as the influence of seasonal maintenance on tin prices and the impact of inventory accumulation on zinc and steel prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock indices: Overall favorable. Short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce risks [1]. - Treasury bonds: Fluctuating [1]. - Gold: Bullish, driven by safe - haven demand and interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1]. Metals - Aluminum: Fluctuating. Domestic downstream demand is under pressure during the off - season, but Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support prices [1]. - Alumina: Bullish. Despite increased production and inventory, there are opportunities for long positions in distant months [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuating. Although social inventory is increasing, LME inventory is decreasing, and macro sentiment provides support [1]. - Nickel: Fluctuating in the short - term, following macro trends. Long - term, there is pressure from excess primary nickel supply [1]. - Stainless steel: Fluctuating. Raw material prices are rising, social inventory is stable, and profits are being repaired, but operations should be short - term [1]. - Tin: Fluctuating strongly in the short - term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro sentiment [1]. - Iron ore: Bearish in the short - term. Supply is recovering, demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Black metals: Bearish. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is high [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Fluctuating, affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Fuel oil: Fluctuating, with similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Fluctuating, following crude oil in the short - term [1]. - PTA: Fluctuating. Production is recovering, inventory is being reduced, and profits are being repaired, but some downstream devices may be shut down [1]. - Ethylene and related products: Bearish. There are rumors of industry reforms and production cuts, and market sentiment is weakening [1]. - Urea: Fluctuating. Export sentiment is slowing, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from cost and anti - involution [1]. - PP: Fluctuating weakly. Maintenance support is limited, and demand is mainly for essential needs [1]. - PVC: Fluctuating weakly. Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Soda ash: Bullish in the future. The spot market is entering the peak season, inventory is low, and there will be more alumina production [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Fluctuating. Although there is a bullish expectation in the fourth quarter, it has corrected significantly in the short - term [1]. - Rapeseed oil: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by the price decline of ICE rapeseed and future anti - dumping measures and procurement progress [1]. - Cotton: Fluctuating in the short - term. Spot basis is strong before new cotton is on the market, but new - year production is expected to increase [1]. - Sugar: Fluctuating narrowly. Supply is becoming looser, and significant price increases are under pressure [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - term. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop is expected to be abundant, and planting costs are decreasing [1]. - Soybean meal: Fluctuating. Pay attention to the impact of precipitation on US soybean yields, and there is support from import costs [1]. - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spreads. The outer - market quotation has increased, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [1]. - Logs: Fluctuating between 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The fundamentals of nickel are relatively loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 29, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121450 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 680 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 750 yuan/ton, and 710 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 136812 lots (+6981), and the open interest was 89621 lots (-2584) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21905 tons (-108) [2]. - **LME Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15190 dollars/ton (+185), the electronic - trading closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158), and the on - floor closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158) [2]. - **Volume**: The trading volume was 7266 lots (-788) [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-201564), and the total inventory was 209544 tons (-132) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 12760 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 109373 lots (-12493), and the open interest was 122203 lots (-4913) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 99772 tons (-659) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Nickel Spot**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122400 yuan/ton (+650), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123550 yuan/ton (+700), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121600 yuan/ton (+650) [2]. - **Premiums**: The average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract was 2300 yuan/ton (+50), and the average premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) over the Shanghai nickel contract was 350 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Spot**: - **Prices**: For 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13700 yuan/ton (0), and for 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13100 yuan/ton (+75) [2]. - **Premiums**: The basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price over the active contract was 850 yuan/ton (+35) [2]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, SMM China port nickel - ore total inventory was 8740000 wet tons (+540000), and the total national port nickel - ore inventory was 6000000 wet tons (0) [2]. - **Nickel Inventory**: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory totaled 4700 tons (0), and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 39470 tons (-1402) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The 300 - series stainless - steel spot inventory was 622700 tons (-3300) [2].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250901: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 29, the nickel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel rose 1.04%. The spot market had good trading, and the premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals were loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was volatile. The nickel price was expected to oscillate within a range, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - On August 29, the stainless - steel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with decreased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The current macro sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals needed time and had cost support. The price was expected to fluctuate following the macro situation, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Market Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel: On August 29, the main contract's trading volume was 136,812 lots (+6,981), and the open interest was 89,621 lots (-2,584). The inventory decreased by 108 tons to 22,013 tons. The price of nickel futures contracts showed an upward trend [2]. - LME nickel: On August 29, the 3 - month nickel's official spot price was $15,190 (+$185), the electronic - trading closing price was $15,421 (+$158), and the trading volume was 7,266 lots (-2,656). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 201,564 tons to 0 tons [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore last week decreased, and port inventories increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, leading to inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary cathode material production increased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Market Data - On August 29, the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 109,373 lots (-12,493), and the open interest was 122,203 lots (-4,913). The SHFE inventory decreased by 659 tons to 99,772 tons [2]. Supply - Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. Demand - Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. Inventory - The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory in the previous week was 622,700 tons (-3,300) [2]. Other Data - National port nickel ore inventory: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 874 (in ten - thousand wet tons) on August 29, an increase of 54 compared to the previous week [2]. - Nickel inventory in different areas: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 4,700 tons. SMM pure - nickel social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons [2]. - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In August, 200 - series stainless - steel inventory was 191,600 tons (+2,400), 300 - series was 622,700 tons (-3,300), 400 - series was 117,300 tons (-2,300), and the total inventory was 926,900 tons (-3,200) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core factors affecting the EC price trend this week are the weak demand in the off - season and the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies, which has led to a decrease in the valuation of futures prices [2]. - The short - term futures price valuation is still relatively weak, but the ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump are illegal brings some positive macro - sentiment, and there is a relatively high possibility of a slight short - term rebound in the futures price [7]. - If the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks in the Middle East suddenly decrease, leading to the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, the freight rates for European routes will significantly decline. Also, the off - season demand may further weaken in the following months, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may be relatively weak [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Currently, the market is in the off - season, with a significant decline in booking demand and weakened support for European route freight rates [2]. - In the short - term, the futures price may slightly rebound due to positive macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping and the off - season demand weakens, the European route freight rates will decline [7][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the middle of a downward trend. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1200 - 1250, and the pressure level is in the range of 1310 - 1360 [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Considering the off - season and weak demand, one can choose to sell for hedging at high positions, with the recommended entry range being 1350 - 1400 [15]. - **Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy**: Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [15]. - **Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy**: It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [15]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits when they are worried about falling freight rates. For companies concerned about rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine booking costs in advance [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Comprehensive Freight Index**: The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, the CICFI increased by 1.32%, the SCFI increased by 2.1%, the NCFI increased by 6.02%, the CCFI decreased by 1.58%, the CFFI decreased by 4.99%, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 8.71%, the SCFIS for the US West Coast route decreased by 5.87%, the SCFI for European routes decreased by 11.21%, the SCFI for the US West Coast route increased by 16.97%, and the SCFI for the US East Coast route increased by 9.68% [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal. China's Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Hamas has expressed its willingness to reach a cease - fire agreement, but Israel's Prime Minister has refused [27]. - **Negative Information**: Trump is trying to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas. The spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies continue to decline, and the SCFI for European routes is accelerating its decline [28][29]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The release of China's official manufacturing PMI for August and the final manufacturing PMI values for August in Europe and the US at the beginning of September [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation * Basis Structure - The European route of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) continued to decline, with the decline rate increasing to 8.71%. The basis between the main contract EC2510 and the spot market narrowed compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [29]. * Monthly Spread Structure - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations for European routes in container shipping (EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, EC2512 - 2602) have converged. Traders can stay on the sidelines for now [31].

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250828: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuating. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - For stainless steel, the current macro - sentiment has a large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for prices to return to fundamentals and there is cost support. Prices are expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2] Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures and Spot Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel**: On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of the active nickel futures contract was 196,852 lots (+108,077), and the open interest was 98,903 lots (-10,364). The basis (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - active nickel futures contract closing price) was 1,390 yuan/ton (+1,080) [2]. - **LME Nickel**: On August 27, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month nickel (electronic trading) was 15,131 dollars/ton (-154), and the trading volume was 6,835 lots (-1,130) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Data - **Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract was 128,526 lots (+25,799), and the open interest was 128,304 lots (-5,355). The basis (304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price - active stainless - steel futures contract closing price) was 860 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Spot**: The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory last week was 626,000 tons (+8,500) [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Nickel Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat last week, with an increase in nickel ore arrivals at ports and inventory accumulation. In August, domestic nickel - iron production decreased while Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [2]. - **Nickel Demand**: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills increased production, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. - **Stainless Steel Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in August [2]. - **Stainless Steel Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Inventory Analysis - **Nickel Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].